Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

ninebeanrows

I say this and i actually know* it. this storm is different to whats gone before. he low over Iceland will not allow it go too far north.

ECM will again destroy all other mods. It is by far the best model. Yes it makes wrong predictions but it is the first to pick up on them being wrong etc.

And it knows how this will play.

This will be a mainland storm.

This is my play 2k11

ninebeanrows

UKM @ 12z going for a strong gale for the whole Island.

GFS in total oppostion, they are both posted respectively.

maquiladora

06Z GFS shifts the track a little south but the strongest winds are still going into Scotland.

0Z ECM and GME go for a more southerly route.

leahyl

I'm just wondering why Dublin is mentioned in the thread title about getting strong winds? Is it just Dublin that this is forecast for cos from what I've been reading on here the whole country looks to be in the firing line! We're not all from Dublin :-(

km79

I don't really care about the wind but is this system still looking like bringing really heavy rain

Wild Bill

leahyl wrote: »

We're not all from Dublin :-(

I feel your pain :cool:

Redsunset

Not a whole lot of difference between ECM runs.
Previous 12z run


Current 00z
Show slightly deeper again and a tad more north.Still looking ominous.



Spanish HIRLAM view on roughly the same track,I think though it uses ECM data too so that would explain that.



I see NOAA have changed from a more northerly track to southerly. Getting interesting this is.

Sponge Bob

I am forming the view that Dublin and the east coast are going to get a right wallop on Tuesday and Weds from this one...less so in the west as the storm system is fast moving at key times for the west but stops moving when the winds are affecting the east.

This is your moment to shine Bill

maquiladora

UK Met Office warning doesnt include Northern Ireland or Scotland, so they are going for the more southerly track at the moment.

Redsunset

UKMO have early wind warning for England and Wales so gives good idea of where storm centre is headed

greysides

SNAP!

darkman2

redsunset wrote: »

Current 00z
Show slightly deeper again and a tad more north.Still looking ominous.

We could also call that the flood path;)

Min

Looks like the southern half of the country will be worse affected.

No offense intended towards Dubliners since this is a general Irish forum, but shouldn't the title to this thread state this rather than focusing on Dublin, it comes across as if the rest of the country doesn't count.

I don't see Dublin registering the strongest winds.

Deep Easterly

GFS 12z coming out now so will low take a north, south or the miggle root?

Harps

Still no real solution on this mornings models I see, 12z coming out now. It could be a major storm or it could turn out to be a moderately windy day for the south with nothing here, an interesting few runs ahead

maquiladora

UK Met Office :

Chief Forecaster's Assessment

A deep depression is expected to cross the country on Tuesday, though as is often the case with this type of feature, at this stage there is a good deal of uncertainty about its track and intensity. It is possible that the centre may pass to the northwest of Scotland, though the most likely track currently seems to be across Northern England. In this case the strongest winds would be over the southern half of the UK, where there is the potential for gusts of 70 mph inland and 80 mph on coasts.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I am forming the view that Dublin and the east coast are going to get a right wallop on Tuesday and Weds from this one...less so in the west as the storm system is fast moving at key times for the west but stops moving when the winds are affecting the east.

This is your moment to shine Bill

Anemometer at the ready! (albeit vertically challenged)

Wild Bill

redsunset wrote: »

UKMO have early wind warning for England and Wales so gives good idea of where storm centre is headed

Looks like someone competing in a sack race!

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

UK Met Office :

Interesting Maq, especially when the UK met fax forecasts are continually showing this storm taking the 'Scottish' root. Uncertainty abounds.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF

Kippure

Deep Easterly wrote: »

GFS 12z coming out now so will low take a north, south or the miggle root?

It will barrell into france....:)

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Interesting Maq, especially when the UK met fax forecasts are continually showing this storm taking the 'Scottish' root. Uncertainty abounds.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVM89.TIF

Yep, and it looks like the 12Z GFS is going further north.

Min

Yeah it has the worse for the northern part of the country again.

Deep Easterly

Yep, the northern root once again:

maquiladora

12Z GFS, strongest winds again for Scotland on this run. For Ireland, strongest winds for northwest and south coastal areas.

Nothing exceptional at all.

Sponge Bob

It has deepened in the 12z...the good news is that it that the system moves along faster and ends up in the north sea sooner than predicted. I think the south will escape the worst...meaning Cork and Kerry because the business end of the storm crosses them very quickly.

The airflow in the aftermath...given the system moves over Scandinavia sooner...sets up more westerly than north westerly which is what one would expect with a slower moving storm.

Weathercheck likes his 925Hpa

ninebeanrows

It must be noted this system has two focuses,

1. The extremely tight gradient and wind field associated with the frontal passage. This is why southern England is highlighted. The combination of driving heavy rain and wind gusts to 140km/hr on exposed southern and western coasts and even from 110-130km/hr inland for Ireland.

The second focus will be the wrap around to the northwest where mean speeds will be highest but extreme gusts just around the core.

A vicious Monday night forecast

Sponge Bob

Fast moving though I was afraid it would stall me.

maquiladora

12Z UKMO also goes further north.

You'd except to see the ECM come into line with the others now and abandon the south track.

Sponge Bob

There is another storm on the night of the 05 / 06 which could be of interest were it to move a tad south. Not worth a thread right now though and probably dependent on the setup in the aftermath of the 'Dublin' storm.......... as we should call this one

( edit I noted the thread title was edited to remove the word "Dublin" at 16:42, precisely one minute after I posted the above.

Still stuck in the brain as "The Dublin Storm" where it shall remain )

M.T. Cranium

12z GEM similar to GFS. Explosive deepening over northern Scotland to 950 mbs (close to Wick or Orkneys at 12z Tues). Forward speed and development phase issues for Donegal on this track, could see some severe gusts around 0300-0800h Tuesday possibly to 80 knots. This might mean alert criteria met over much of the country if only briefly as the storm will be at its maximum pressure-fall values in the vicinity of 10W.

This is nowhere near to being a done deal yet, especially if the ECM holds on to a more southerly track. But the low itself has to go through a pressure jump from inland New England to the Gulf of Maine (timed for 22-03z), which can often throw new data into the models.

I think this can only shift south from the current GFS track, most of the uncertainty lies on the south side of the track envelope. And this is a more volatile system than some we have seen on this track, in other words, could have a wider swath of strong winds. About an hour and a bit to the ECM run, may wander back in after that.