Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

A final chart before 2012.

A 45 deg veer in the isobars along the cold front. That would be very interesting indeed.

Harps

Just home having had a few too many to drink but a happy new year to everyone!!

Had a quick look at the 0z which is much the same as the 19z but slightly stronger, nothing special really other than the fact its abit more of a nationwide event than usual. Ayway, bed time I think, will have a proper look in the morning!

M.T. Cranium

Certainly looking like a strong wind event for any exposed locations from north to south and west to east. By the way, the 00z ECM run has changed vastly from previous days, blocking starts to show up in a week from now.

ninebeanrows

I think people are underestimating this system, the 0z GfS and ECM look severe.

We are talking about widespread gusts above 60KT with gusts to 80KT in places, if plays out on current track it will be most notable and widespread wind event in a few years. Although as ever could ebb 50-100 miles further north moderating things for the mainland.

Keep updated

Deep Easterly

This morning's ECM is certainly interesting with the low centre deepening as it moves to the NW of Ireland:



Though not set in stone, seems like a much more logical solution to what this model was showing a few days back.


Met Eireann forecast this morning:

Monday night will be wet and windy as an area of low pressure sweeps across the country, introducing stormy conditions overnight and on Tuesday morning. As the stormy weather moves away cold air will arrive with showers, some of those showers will be wintry. Highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/


Where our low was at on the 06z analysis this morning:



It had become a fairly flabby feature on reaching the northeastern states over the last 24hrs but now beginning to take shape and deepen a little (around 4.0 hPa in the last 6 hrs) as it moves into the Atlantic.

Bring it on.. :cool:

maquiladora

Interesting 0Z models alright.

ECM bring the low down to 952mb north of Ireland.

whataboutnow

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

12z GEM similar to GFS. Explosive deepening over northern Scotland to 950 mbs (close to Wick or Orkneys at 12z Tues). Forward speed and development phase issues for Donegal on this track, could see some severe gusts around 0300-0800h Tuesday possibly to 80 knots. This might mean alert criteria met over much of the country if only briefly as the storm will be at its maximum pressure-fall values in the vicinity of 10W.

This is nowhere near to being a done deal yet, especially if the ECM holds on to a more southerly track. But the low itself has to go through a pressure jump from inland New England to the Gulf of Maine (timed for 22-03z), which can often throw new data into the models.

I think this can only shift south from the current GFS track, most of the uncertainty lies on the south side of the track envelope. And this is a more volatile system than some we have seen on this track, in other words, could have a wider swath of strong winds. About an hour and a bit to the ECM run, may wander back in after that.

Hi MT.I just read your daily forecast(thanks by the way)You said that winds could be comparable to that of the st.stephens day storm in 1998,I live in donegal and that was the worst storm I've ever witnessed,winds were in excess of 100mph well inland?realistically what are the chances of that being repeated in my area.Thank you

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting 0Z models alright.

ECM bring the low down to 952mb north of Ireland.

06z HIRLAM (EMHI) keeping the same theme going.

ninebeanrows

6z slightly further south, explosively developing storm racing across Ireland

whataboutnow

Deep Easterly wrote: »

06z HIRLAM (EMHI) keeping the same theme going.

Hi,in your opinion what do you reckon the gusts could reach given the current set up?cheers

maquiladora

06Z GFS nudges the track a bit further south.

80/85mph gusts on west/southwest/south coasts.

70/75mph gusts countrywide.

If that exact track/intensity came off.

Deep Easterly

whataboutnow wrote: »

Hi,in your opinion what do you reckon the gusts could reach given the current set up?cheers

I am very much conservative on these things but my guess would be gusts of up to 40kt to 55kt inland (maybe stronger in NW) to 50kt to 75kt in more coastal locations. (W/N more favored for the higher gusts based on current projections)

This is not a done deal yet though so keep updated, we will have a much better idea closer the time.

mickger844posts

GFS 06Z further south giving the southern half of the country something for a change.

sunbabe08

ohhhh

M.T. Cranium

Not just for the poster who asked specifically, but a general comment:

Check back after 1600h for the latest estimates, but I think we are all rather concerned at this point about potential severity, and the track now being featured will not spare any regions, but even relatively small shifts in that track might adjust the impacts.

It needs to be stressed that this will happen mostly in the pre-dawn darkness on Tuesday although it will stay very windy across the northeast until mid-day or so.

To give some idea of how this might play out, these are some wind gust maximum forecasts that I would issue for current model consensus:

Belmullet, Mace Head, Valentia, Sherkin Is, Roche Pt ... 75-80 kts

Johnstown, Cork, Shannon, Casement, Dublin, Malin Head ... 55-65 kts

Mullingar, Oak Park, Claremorris, Ballyhaise ... 45-55 kts

Notice these are a bit stronger than previous storms even in windy locations (except for Malin Head which I am keeping lower because of track)

Galway Bay and the region from Galway to Athlone to Meath could be in line for exceptionally strong gusts on the track we're seeing at present.

Now as the poster who asked the question lives in Donegal, I might say that this storm could be severe more in the south than the north of Donegal but only if it keeps very close to a track across Malin Head; the strongest winds in storms of this type are usually 50-150 miles to the south of the track.

Anyway, there is time for this to change, it's important to realize that we are trying to match forecast maps with wind speeds, and this storm is 36h away with almost 3,000 kms of ocean to cross. But that in itself tells a story, the average forward speed given those numbers is 83 km/hr ... and a storm racing along at that speed while deepening is capable of generating some very intense gusts, I can't really rule out 90-100 kts being in play at some point, let's hope that doesn't materialize.

Bottom line is, take this storm very seriously until either it happens or we get reliable indications of a downgrade.

maquiladora

If that was just a bit further south...

Min

It won't be great living on a hill that is exposed to the southwest, all the around to the north.

I noticed for the last storm that affected the western to northern regions of the country, they had warninggs for the strongest winds being on the coasts and on high ground inland.

joes girls

I really don't like storms, so sorry but i hope it will die down a bit before it hits us.:(

M.T. Cranium

I just had a look at the satellite loop and the data from ocean buoys south of Newfoundland, can see that the storm is developing very rapidly and already has a much better circulation than 3-6h ago, central pressure was 990 mbs at 09z when the centre passed right over Sable Island (it has an eye apparently, the wind speed was 2 kts).

The pressure may be falling faster than the model runs have shown, when I compare 12z map and reality. Will be taking a sleep break now, back to see what's happening around 1700h.

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I just had a look at the satellite loop and the data from ocean buoys south of Newfoundland, can see that the storm is developing very rapidly and already has a much better circulation than 3-6h ago, central pressure was 990 mbs at 09z when the centre passed right over Sable Island (it has an eye apparently, the wind speed was 2 kts).

The pressure may be falling faster than the model runs have shown, when I compare 12z map and reality. Will be taking a sleep break now, back to see what's happening around 1700h.

If its deepening faster than the models expect then a more northerly track could be on the cards.

Su Campu

That's what I thought would happen, which would bring its track further to the north. Interesting to see if the next runs will show this.

maquiladora

UK Met Office have just updated their warning and it now includes NI and Scotland. They are now going for a more northerly track than previously.

Chief Forecaster's Assessment

A deep depression is expected to affect the UK on Tuesday bringing very windy conditions to most regions for a time. Strongest winds are expected across parts of Northern Ireland, northern England and, more especially, Scotland, including the Central Lowlands. Here there is the potential for gusts to reach 60 to 70 MPH and, perhaps, locally 80 MPH over coasts and hills. Elsewhere gusts between 45 and 55 MPH are expected at times, and up to 60 or 70 MPH in exposed western and southern coastal areas in England and Wales. Some hill snow is also in prospect for parts of Scotland for a time.

Deep Easterly

Track dependent of course but might be worth keeping an eye on a potential trough feature that the models seem to be picking up on for Tuesday afternoon:

Fax 00z run for Tue 12z: (sorry for crap highlighting)



both the ECM and GFS have this little feature bringing another wave of strong winds over the country during Tuesday afternoon though unlikely to be as prolonged or as severe as the main event. Might be worth (or maybe not) keeping an eye on anyway.

Sponge Bob

It did not have an eye when this first image was taken ( source for updated images) at 6.15am UTC but it certainly organised itself better for the second image at 12.15UTC

Redsunset

Spanish HIRLAM looks fairly spot on to me

Deep Easterly

Synoptic reconstruction of the Jan 06th/07th 1839 storm at 00z:



A very windy night apparently, proceeded by a fall of snow over some parts of the country earlier that morning. A much more deeper system than the one heading for us though.

Sponge Bob

Keep an eye on Ascat, can someone please tell me what 25km and 12.5km correspond to in Hpa or is that horizontal not vertical resolution...thx

http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/ascat_osi_25_prod/ascat_app.cgi

ninebeanrows

Just for the interest of people looking for intensification now. The models do show it becoming organised but then its rate of intensification slowing as it races across the Atlantic before undergoing rapid cyclogenesis as it approaches Ireland.

Deep Easterly

Farming weather coming up on RTE 1 now.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Farming weather coming up on RTE 1 now.

Just missed it.