Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Deep Easterly

Harps wrote: »

ECMWF keeps us guessing with another totally different track and later bombing, the southern part of the country getting hit this time albeit less severe.

Does anyone have a link to the 6 hour ECM charts? Someone posted it a few weeks ago, think it was a Slovenian site or something similar

This one Harps? Updates quickly but only goes out to 3 days so storm low not coming into the picture just yet.

M.T. Cranium

Ominous signals with this, if we see the GFS intensity on the ECM track then it's a major windstorm event. Currently assess this as 30-40 per cent probable, with most of the remaining 60-70 per cent reserved for moderate wind event. A GFS-ECM blend would bring a 965 mb low across northern third of Ireland with strongest winds Galway to Dublin. Should stress this is not any particular model solution but a blend or least-error solution at this point.

The GEM now has the system which removes the one model with no event.

System is currently crossing the northeast US as an open 995 mb wave. See attached map for 18z position south of Chicago. The system moves to Lake Ontario by 12z Saturday then picks up speed New Years Eve and moves to the southeast coast of Newfoundland by 12z New Years Day. From there it is picked up by a stronger jet dropping southeast from Labrador and races across the Atlantic in about 36 hours.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/jac18_50.gif

Wild Bill

Is this the storm we are all talking about?

Su Campu

Yes, but it should hit Ireland before your chart, somewhere between midnight and 6am according to the GFS. A windy night Monday night.

Deep Easterly

UK Met guys have the low passing to our north, and a little further south than their own UKMO model run (12z run at least)



as others have said a lot of model disagreement of actual path but at least they are firming up and agreeing on trend.

Birdnuts

I'm following ECM on this one - they were the first to call the bluff of the previous "big one" a few weeks back;)

Su Campu

The ECMWF has a fair heap of rain coming in with this system.

Deep Easterly

Still not deepening all that much on the ECMWF until it passes:



It seems ECMWF does not want to occlude the low until around then. Could be a headachey few days ahead!

DOCARCH

On RTE/ME forecast after the 6pm news, Evelyn showed low centre right over Ireland with strong winds to the south. She did mention potential for heavy rain.

Wild Bill

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, but it should hit Ireland before your chart, somewhere between midnight and 6am according to the GFS. A windy night Monday night.

How do you read the feathers? Obviously the more bars in the tail the windier - but does the number mean some figure; eg in this chart there are 4 and a half bars off the west coast......

Is that Force 9 or a specific number of knots or kph/hr?

Deep Easterly

ECMWF Deterministic V's Ensemble Mean:


Ensemble mean has low centre slightly further north which is encouraging. I guess the next few days will give us a much clearer idea of where we are at regarding this potential storm. Talking about such things so far out can be so nerve-wreaking, almost like walking on a crumbling cliff edge or a thin line between hope and disappointment. Still fun though, though would be nice to see a positive outcome the odd time as well.

Su Campu

Wild Bill wrote: »

How do you read the feathers? Obviously the more bars in the tail the windier - but does the number mean some figure; eg in this chart there are 4 and a half bars off the west coast......

Is that Force 9 or a specific number of knots or kph/hr?

They are wind barbs. Each full barb is worth 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kmph) and a half barb 5 knots. A full pennant (triangle) is worth 50 knots. Just add them all up for each barb to get the speed.

Deep Easterly

Evelyn mentioned on the 9.30pm forecast that snow could fall on the northern flank of this depression. Plausible under the current projections but precipitation would need to be pretty intense for a prolonged period to help drag down cooler air to the surface.

Redsunset

12z ECM
Shows a touch deeper than 00z with slightly more intense rain at the centre,could be very interesting even if track wanders abit either way

Harps

18z GFS a lot stronger but further north, major storm for Scotland if this came off

Redsunset

GFS has the system at 6pm Monday at a much quicker development than the ECM so as it deepens it drives on a more northerly track I think the GFS may be right

Wild Bill

redsunset wrote: »

GFS has the system at 6pm Monday at a much quicker development than the ECM so as it deepens it drives on a more northerly track I think the GFS may be right

Deep Easterly has kindly explained to me that ECM is "European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts"

But what is GFS?

Harps

An American equivalent of the ECM! They both produce the forecast charts you see all over this forum like the one I posted above

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

There's plenty of others, UKMO (UK Met Office) and GEM (Canadian) are commonly used on here as well

Su Campu

Wild Bill wrote: »

Deep Easterly has kindly explained to me that ECM is "European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts"

But what is GFS?

There's this new site out there called Google..... :pac:

darkman2

GFS/UKMO going for Northerly track. Have to be the favoured outcome right now. Hopefully be sorted tomorrow.

Redsunset

I'll post up what Evelyn showed for Tuesday.Times on screen. I say though this will be amended by tomorrow.

Sponge Bob

This is looking a bit like

1. A direct hit ( meaning Southern Ireland not Donegal)
2. System pausing and pulling in the NWs on Tue/Wed.

But just like it was going north yesterday...it could still go north and move quickly across before NW gets set up.

Very active Atlantic. Can't make my mind up on this one yet save that there will be a storm like the title says.

Wild Bill

Su Campu wrote: »

There's this new site out there called Google..... :pac:

That is very ungentlemanly young Sir. :mad:

I googled GFS and got (in order of listing) -

Global File System (Red Hat) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_File_System_(Red_Hat)In computing, the Global File System (GFS) is a shared disk file system for Linux computer clusters. This is not to be confused with the Google File System (also ...
History - Hardware - Differences from a local ... - Journaling
Google File System - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_File_SystemGoogle File System (GFS or GoogleFS) is a proprietary distributed file system developed by Google Inc. for its own use. It is designed to provide efficient, reliable ...
Home | GFS Canada
www.gfscanada.com/ -
CanadaGFS —Gordon Food Service. Site Search: Home · Contact Us · Become a Customer · Order Online · English · Français · Products · Product Categories · Our ...
GFS Guitar Pickups
guitarfetish.com/GFS-Guitar-Pickups_c_7.htmlGuitar Pickups. Premium gfs pickups sold exclusively here at guitarfetish.com. P90s, humbuckers, single coil, guitar pickup sets and much more.
GFS - RedHat
www.redhat.com/gfs/A shared disk cluster filesystem for Linux that supports journaling and failure recovery. Source code, documentation, papers, and mailing list.
GSF | Cheap Discount Car Parts | Euro German Japanese | VW ...
www.gsfcarparts.com/Supplier for Citroen, Peugeot and Renault spare parts. Offers an online catalogue, downloadable catalogues and a technical discussion forum.
Branches - Catalogue - Service Parts. - Braking Informaion

Which of these produce the maps?

The Car Parts company?

Sponge Bob

Global Forecast System ...had you scrolled past the first 6 hits. Next time google for "GFS Weather" Bill...you plank

If you google for IRA as a standalone TLA you normally get some US government retirement scheme.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Global Forecast System ...had you scrolled past the first 6 hits. Next time google for "GFS Weather" Bill...you plank

If you google for IRA as a standalone TLA you normally get some US government retirement scheme.

"GFS Weather Bill" - ok, got it :cool:

Look, save me all the searchin' - are we in for a Big One or not?

Sponge Bob

For some reason that string produces lots of dodgy Russian hits because some Perv is known as, ahem, gfs weather bill .


Stick to "GFS Weather" and copy all the string particularly including the " and the other "

Wild Bill

At least it's thumping snow in Moscow tonight (I presume we can mention Moscow's weather without moving to some politics thread?)

Anyway - look at this and tell we ain't gonna see SNOW!

M.T. Cranium

GFS stands for Giant Freight Systems, they have trucks (okay, lorries) and deliver forecasts whether you order them or not.

Here's a picture (sorry it's a bit blurry and you have to magnify it to the max):

Redsunset

That ECM storm track must be wrong,GFS is sticking to its guns
What say you MT

M.T. Cranium

Anyway, the 00z GFS takes the thing down Route One as usual, so that's their mark in the sand for now. It would be the usual blast of SW veering to WNW for Donegal/Mayo and Galway Bay. We await the rest of the pack. With the cold air entering the circulation ahead of this storm, the situation is highly volatile to say the least.