Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

ninebeanrows

A very mobile period of weather is ahead of us and we are expected to continue under the strong zonal pattern for the medium term. It will be cool/cold at times and also very mild at times.

The next 5 days will be windy and breezy throughout but a notable peak in winds has been focused around next Tuesday (3rdd January). A developed low pressure will exit Newfoundland eastwards on January 1st traveling steadily east before interacting with a forecast jetstreak by January 2nd. It will intensify strongly and is expected to push to our north into Scotland, replacing a cold maritime airstream.

The storm system will be well developed with a large windfield extending from its center. Strong and widespread gales will develop on Monday evening and overnight. The system is likely at this point to be strong enough to cause widespread gales but has the potential to become develop further.

Models are keen to develop a band of 70knot+ 925hpa winds in association with the warm front and develops widespread sustained 10metre winds of 30-35 knots inland with upto 50 knots in coastal locations.

It seems like it will be a widespread wind event, even if at this point, nothing to be overly alarmed by.

925hpa wind forecast (Used as a tool to estimate gusts)

Nabber

GFS & UKMO have it just north of Scotland

A few other models have the low South east of Iceland with another low forming over N.Ireland and N. England.

tylercollins

The day I go back to work

Ahh well, I look forward to reading through this entire thread once it starts to pick up

Harps

Strongest winds well north on the 18z, looks like it could develop into a strong storm though so an interesting one to watch for the next few days

rilz

I love a good storm in winter. My outside xmas tree could get a hat-trick - Blew over yesterday - blew over today - One more time hey.

mickger844posts

GFS 0Z run. Windy but nothing special.

M.T. Cranium

Models are having trouble resolving this, but I believe it has potential to develop around 0300-0600 Tuesday. One model (GEM) fails to develop it at all, but ECM looks bullish. Temperature trend will be "anti-diurnal" which has been flagged as a trigger for very strong winds in past cases. Anti-diurnal means cold in daytime and mild at night basically, due to timing of fast-moving warm sector. Could be 12-13 C briefly as this feature blasts across Ireland. Should be interesting anyway.

Deep Easterly

This morning's ECM has the low really deepening, but not before it reaches Ireland.



Maybe it is just me but seem a little odd that the surface trough would deepen so much while crossing overland before it really bombs over the north sea; though without doubt this model is taking the jet stream and other upper profiles into account. Still early days and plenty of room for upgrades (and downgrades obviously!)

maquiladora

Track has slipped further south on the 06Z GFS.

Gusts for the south and east up to 130 km/h if that came off.

ninebeanrows

Yes the 6z would bring some surprisingly strong winds.

You have a storm racing across the country while undergoing rapid intensification.

Dropping 10mb in just 6 hours. Although the severe wind threat would likely just last 4-6 hours.

We would be talking about gusts to 70 knots inland and above that in some exposed spots.

Quite a bit of uncertainty surronding this yet, as to when it intensifies.

ninebeanrows

Doesn't look like being as bad, but the whole set up reminds me of the Stephen's Day Storm of 1998.

Same set up although the latest models aren't as bullish as this

Madpaddy79

Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

davidsr20

I'm sick of these wind/storm treads , is this the highlight off our winter this year ;(

ninebeanrows

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

Just because it hasn't stormed in Dublin doesn't mean there hasn't been a storm.

There was only 1 thread that was wrong and that was about three weeks ago and i hold my hands up but that one fooled a whole lot of experts so it doesn't really bother me!

The other 2-3 storms have given very bad conditions to northern and northwestern areas.

greysides

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

Yes, that thought occurred to me too.....:D

All part of the game.

derekon

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

Is that you Darkman2? :D:D:D

D

Iancar29

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

^^^ This Guy Clearly doesnt understand the meaning of "Possible" and how chaotic the atmosphere can be even in the short term ..:rolleyes:


Have to say though... ECM ,the west coast is pretty much gonna have Gale force gusts from 2moro for POSSIBLE near 72 hrs! Anyone investing on wind power? :rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Looks worrying this run. Bit deeper and bit further north as a result.

This one has lots of potential.

Widespread gales and then a real bash of violent storm force for the northwest.

But widespread sustained above 30kts gusting 70kts+

Harps

Deeper on the 12z GFS, looking like a widespread event for a change with potential for some serious gusts around here



Really bombs on this run, 985mb to 945mb in 24 hours!

mickger844posts

GFS 12Z Upgrade i would say

darkman2

No one wants to post the UKMO - no?;)

Deep Easterly

Harps wrote: »

Deeper on the 12z GFS, looking like a widespread event for a change with potential for some serious gusts around here

Really bombs on this run, 985mb to 945mb in 24 hours!

Beautiful chart!! really nasty looking cold front associated with the low as well. Could we be looking at the first major squall line of the season??

Wait, must not get carried away.. it too far out to be real..!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EoELEGKVBo

Harps

I was thinking of you when I saw the chart About time we get a good nationwide event

On the UKMO, the centre is well north but it deepens to 945mb by the time it reaches us, that'd be a serious storm if a bit further south. Still a lot of uncertainty on track & intensity as always but hopefully it doesn't go the way of every other storm this year and track north.

Redsunset

darkman2 wrote: »

No one wants to post the UKMO - no?;)

Ummh i wonder will this be the true track as she deepens earlier also
Not too unlike the 1998 storm at the moment

Deep Easterly

This 5 day cloud cover forecast from met.fu Berlin has, like the ECMWF, the low not really bombing until it passes to our east, though the run is only updated once every day so hopefully a more encouraging run tomorrow:

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/terra3d/video/skycover.mpg

Su Campu

This system is currently a small low pressure area that originated up near MT's neck of the woods and will not change much as it makes its way across the northern US over the weekend, though its associated upper trough deepens. It will have a minor effect in the northeastern US states, but the system following behind it looks like a right Nor'easter and should bring widespread snow chaos to much of those states early next week.

Our system gets caught under the RRQ of a strong 180 knot jet streak, and I would be more confident at this stage that the models will do a better job of resolving this jet, given the better data coverage. I would imagine that there will be less chops and changes with this system's track than there were with Joachim, but I have a hunch it will deepen sooner and turn a bit further north than they are showing at the moment, à la Rosenbloom rule. That may not make much difference to the actual winds we will get but I can see that slight shift northwards taking place as I think the Azores ridge will hold strong.

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

Our system gets caught under the RRQ of a strong 180 knot jet streak.

I wonder Su, is this the very reason that the ECMWF this morning did not develop the low fully until it passed to our east? in that under such a strong jet, the wave depression barely even gets a chance reach its mature stage by the time it reaches us? Anyways, ECMWF 12z rolling out soon, it better be a good 'un!

Madpaddy79

Iancar29 wrote: »

Madpaddy79 wrote: »

Ah ya gotta love boards.ie. Someone opens a tread about possible cold next week, 140 posts, Mod opens yet another storm in tea cup tread, attracting hardly any comments,as it has not happened 3 times I recall now after the dramatic titles, then proceeds to close the cold discussion. Tut tut. Hope it doesn't turn out cold!!

^^^ This Guy Clearly doesnt understand the meaning of "Possible" and how chaotic the atmosphere can be even in the short term ..:rolleyes:


Have to say though... ECM ,the west coast is pretty much gonna have Gale force gusts from 2moro for POSSIBLE near 72 hrs! Anyone investing on wind power? :rolleyes:

I
It's more about the "atmosphere" in boards.ie!! Now back to the topic

Deep Easterly

ECMWF has low taking on a more southerly track than that of the GFS:



at face value it seems to have a tighter gradient over the south of Ireland as it passes over but hard to tell just going by these 24hr increment charts.

leahyl

Evelyn talking about perhaps storm force winds and 20-30mm rain in South on Tuesday?!:eek:

Harps

ECMWF keeps us guessing with another totally different track and later bombing, the southern part of the country getting hit this time albeit less severe.



Does anyone have a link to the 6 hour ECM charts? Someone posted it a few weeks ago, think it was a Slovenian site or something similar

Edit: Beaten to it again!

Deep Easterly

Harps wrote: »

ECMWF keeps us guessing with another totally different track and later bombing, the southern part of the country getting hit this time albeit less severe.

Does anyone have a link to the 6 hour ECM charts? Someone posted it a few weeks ago, think it was a Slovenian site or something similar

This one Harps? Updates quickly but only goes out to 3 days so storm low not coming into the picture just yet.

M.T. Cranium

Ominous signals with this, if we see the GFS intensity on the ECM track then it's a major windstorm event. Currently assess this as 30-40 per cent probable, with most of the remaining 60-70 per cent reserved for moderate wind event. A GFS-ECM blend would bring a 965 mb low across northern third of Ireland with strongest winds Galway to Dublin. Should stress this is not any particular model solution but a blend or least-error solution at this point.

The GEM now has the system which removes the one model with no event.

System is currently crossing the northeast US as an open 995 mb wave. See attached map for 18z position south of Chicago. The system moves to Lake Ontario by 12z Saturday then picks up speed New Years Eve and moves to the southeast coast of Newfoundland by 12z New Years Day. From there it is picked up by a stronger jet dropping southeast from Labrador and races across the Atlantic in about 36 hours.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/jac18_50.gif

Wild Bill

Is this the storm we are all talking about?

Su Campu

Yes, but it should hit Ireland before your chart, somewhere between midnight and 6am according to the GFS. A windy night Monday night.

Deep Easterly

UK Met guys have the low passing to our north, and a little further south than their own UKMO model run (12z run at least)



as others have said a lot of model disagreement of actual path but at least they are firming up and agreeing on trend.

Birdnuts

I'm following ECM on this one - they were the first to call the bluff of the previous "big one" a few weeks back;)

Su Campu

The ECMWF has a fair heap of rain coming in with this system.

Deep Easterly

Still not deepening all that much on the ECMWF until it passes:



It seems ECMWF does not want to occlude the low until around then. Could be a headachey few days ahead!

DOCARCH

On RTE/ME forecast after the 6pm news, Evelyn showed low centre right over Ireland with strong winds to the south. She did mention potential for heavy rain.

Wild Bill

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, but it should hit Ireland before your chart, somewhere between midnight and 6am according to the GFS. A windy night Monday night.

How do you read the feathers? Obviously the more bars in the tail the windier - but does the number mean some figure; eg in this chart there are 4 and a half bars off the west coast......

Is that Force 9 or a specific number of knots or kph/hr?

Deep Easterly

ECMWF Deterministic V's Ensemble Mean:


Ensemble mean has low centre slightly further north which is encouraging. I guess the next few days will give us a much clearer idea of where we are at regarding this potential storm. Talking about such things so far out can be so nerve-wreaking, almost like walking on a crumbling cliff edge or a thin line between hope and disappointment. Still fun though, though would be nice to see a positive outcome the odd time as well.

Su Campu

Wild Bill wrote: »

How do you read the feathers? Obviously the more bars in the tail the windier - but does the number mean some figure; eg in this chart there are 4 and a half bars off the west coast......

Is that Force 9 or a specific number of knots or kph/hr?

They are wind barbs. Each full barb is worth 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kmph) and a half barb 5 knots. A full pennant (triangle) is worth 50 knots. Just add them all up for each barb to get the speed.

Deep Easterly

Evelyn mentioned on the 9.30pm forecast that snow could fall on the northern flank of this depression. Plausible under the current projections but precipitation would need to be pretty intense for a prolonged period to help drag down cooler air to the surface.

Redsunset

12z ECM
Shows a touch deeper than 00z with slightly more intense rain at the centre,could be very interesting even if track wanders abit either way

Harps

18z GFS a lot stronger but further north, major storm for Scotland if this came off

Redsunset

GFS has the system at 6pm Monday at a much quicker development than the ECM so as it deepens it drives on a more northerly track I think the GFS may be right

Wild Bill

redsunset wrote: »

GFS has the system at 6pm Monday at a much quicker development than the ECM so as it deepens it drives on a more northerly track I think the GFS may be right

Deep Easterly has kindly explained to me that ECM is "European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts"

But what is GFS?

Harps

An American equivalent of the ECM! They both produce the forecast charts you see all over this forum like the one I posted above

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System

There's plenty of others, UKMO (UK Met Office) and GEM (Canadian) are commonly used on here as well

Su Campu

Wild Bill wrote: »

Deep Easterly has kindly explained to me that ECM is "European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts"

But what is GFS?

There's this new site out there called Google..... :pac:

darkman2

GFS/UKMO going for Northerly track. Have to be the favoured outcome right now. Hopefully be sorted tomorrow.