Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

donkey balls · 17-04-2021 7:22pm

Tenger wrote: »

I would agree, this virus isn’t going away any time soon. Even once it’s under control it will still be there.

We need to reduce risk and live with it rather than aiming for zero covid.

This coukd end up like the flu jab people get every year there be a shot for CV19 possibly.

17-04-2021 7:34pm

Locker10a wrote: »

I think it will pass in a few months and be forgotten about by mid summer

Nah it'll be around for longer than you think.

Tenger · 17-04-2021 11:58pm

donkey balls wrote: »

This coukd end up like the flu jab people get every year there be a shot for CV19 possibly.

Very much so. This time last year it was very dangerous, it was unknown, it was highly infectious, it had a long pre-symptomatic phase. Existing treatments didn't work, mortality was 8%.

Now the medical sector have far more understanding of how to treat it. Mortality has dropped and we have vaccines.

I can see the old "touch of man flu" phrase becoming "I had a touch of Covid" in 3-4 years.

donkey balls · 18-04-2021 11:41am

Regarding the vaccine wether it be AZ or Pfizer when it comes to your turn to get the vaccine make sure your not working the next day, The morning after I got mine I was groggy then got a pox of a headache I normally never get any headaches and am reluctant to take anything ended up taking 2 Nurofen went to bed and got up the next morning fine.

Locker10a · 18-04-2021 1:53pm

donkey balls wrote: »

Regarding the vaccine wether it be AZ or Pfizer when it comes to your turn to get the vaccine make sure your not working the next day, The morning after I got mine I was groggy then got a pox of a headache I normally never get any headaches and am reluctant to take anything ended up taking 2 Nurofen went to bed and got up the next morning fine.

I felt absolutely fine after mine, no issue whatsoever, it’s really down to how each individual responds.

donkey balls · 18-04-2021 2:01pm

Locker10a wrote: »

I felt absolutely fine after mine, no issue whatsoever, it’s really down to how each individual responds.

True but everyone I know who got it felt like crap the next day especially after the 2nd dose of Pfizer, Sisters fella was in a jock afterwards that they put in place people getting it if unwell the next day they had cover lined up in the hospital.

Tenger · 18-04-2021 5:43pm

Saw a post on twitter a few days ago.
NYC is experiencing more supply than demand.
Apparently there were 50K unused time slots for vaccination last weekend.
My mates in the US are already vaccinated. They say that their are no residency/immigration status questions in order to get the jab. (both are in their 40s and are in different states)

I'm wondering if we could see "vaccine tourism" in the next couple of months if the US lifts their travel ban on EU/UK arrivals?

Blut2 · 18-04-2021 6:40pm

^ I've had a few (Irish citizen/resident) friends in their 30s engage in some vaccine tourism while in the US for work/family reasons already. All the states they did it in was ask for an ID - not any proof of US residency. Given the high numbers of illegals in the US, and America's now surplus of vaccines, it seems to be a policy most places to just give the vaccine to anyone asks for one. Much better for public health that way to be fair.

Its definitely a smart thing to do if you're over there in the next few months. Anyone in their 20s/30s could be waiting until August in Ireland.

NSAman · 18-04-2021 6:45pm

Tenger wrote: »

Saw a post on twitter a few days ago.
NYC is experiencing more supply than demand.
Apparently their were 50K unused time slots for vaccination last weekend.
My mates in the US are already vaccinated. They say that their are no residency/immigration status questions in order to get the jab. (both are in their 50s and are in different states)

I'm wondering if we could see "vaccine tourism" in the next couple of months if the US lifts their travel ban on EU/UK arrivals?

This is quite probable.

Where I am (in the middle of nowhere ) you Can just go to the local pharmacy at this stage. No queues, no waiting and that is in the space of two weeks. My medical clinic has already vaccinated anyone who is a client and wanted the vaccine.

Having heard the news from dozens of friends at home (through a barrage of texts) that quarantine can be done at home for those vaccinated. I hope it brings Aer Lingus some much needed business. I WILL be travelling myself in the coming weeks. It can’t come soon enough! Two years is too long having not seen the family.

IngazZagni · 18-04-2021 6:49pm

Blut2 wrote: »

^ I've had a few (Irish citizen/resident) friends in their 30s engage in some vaccine tourism while in the US for work/family reasons already. All the states they did it in was ask for an ID - not any proof of US residency. Given the high numbers of illegals in the US, and America's now surplus of vaccines, it seems to be a policy most places to just give the vaccine to anyone asks for one. Much better for public health that way to be fair.

Its definitely a smart thing to do if you're over there in the next few months. Anyone in their 20s/30s could be waiting until August in Ireland.

What are they expecting to do for their second dose here?

bk · 18-04-2021 6:50pm

donkey balls wrote: »

This coukd end up like the flu jab people get every year there be a shot for CV19 possibly.

Important to point out, that the yearly flu vaccine is because there are hundreds of different flu strains, and each year the flu vaccine contains the top 3 to 5 strains that they think will be circulating that year, not because immunity wanes.

Interestingly both Modern and Pfizer/Biontech are working on next gen mRNA flu jabs and they are looking into creating a combined flu/Covid19 jab if it is needed yearly.

Also interestingly there is some early evidence that the Covid19 vaccines are also greatly reducing other Coronavirus, like the various ones that are partly responsible for the common cold.

Of course it should be stressed that no one knows how long immunity against Covid19 will last. It might be just a year, 5 years, 10 years, etc. Only time will tell.

Blut2 · 18-04-2021 7:07pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

What are they expecting to do for their second dose here?

They're not terribly concerned about that. The first dose alone gives approx 90% immunity, which is a hell of a lot better for themselves and their family around them (and Ireland in general as well, to be fair) than the 0% they had before.

Tenger · 18-04-2021 7:16pm

Blut2 wrote: »

They're not terribly concerned about that. The first dose alone gives approx 90% immunity, which is a hell of a lot better for themselves and their family around them (and Ireland in general as well, to be fair) than the 0% they had before.

More like 50-60% after 1st dose. But definitely better than nothing.
(The existing yearly flu jab is only 70% effective)

Blut2 · 18-04-2021 7:20pm

Tenger wrote: »

More like 50-60% after 1st dose. But definitely better than nothing.
(The existing yearly flu jab is only 70% effective)

Nope, significantly better they think now apparently:

Using the data from the published study of the Pfizer vaccine, Public Health England determined that vaccine efficacy was 89% 15-21 days after dose 1 – and before dose 2 on day 21.

https://theconversation.com/how-effective-is-the-first-shot-of-the-pfizer-or-moderna-vaccine-156615

But yeah, either way, definitely better than the 0% they'd have waiting around here for months yet!

IngazZagni · 18-04-2021 7:47pm

Blut2 wrote: »

They're not terribly concerned about that. The first dose alone gives approx 90% immunity, which is a hell of a lot better for themselves and their family around them (and Ireland in general as well, to be fair) than the 0% they had before.

Interesting. I wonder if that'll cause any issues getting the Euro green certificate.

Hopefully the target of 80% of adults by end of June will be met. They could make that 100% if they spaced out the shots more.

Inquitus · 18-04-2021 7:47pm

bombs away wrote: »

Full efficacy is actually achieved between 7 and 14 days after the second dose. Again you are pulling figures out of your ass.

https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2021/02/covid-19-vaccines-and-immunity-how-long-does-it-take-for-the-vaccines-to-provide

And even if only say 20 percent of the EU population had received their second dose by the end of the summer, it's still 20% more than are currently eligible now to travel. I'm pretty sure that's more than "material difference" as you claim. The passport will also apply to people who have recovered from the virus without having received one or both vaccinations or any which counts for a significant amount at present.

Those 20% are mainly made up of the elderly, those in care homes etc. not the actual travelling demographic. <snip>

Cookiemunster · 18-04-2021 9:14pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

They could make that 100% if they spaced out the shots more.

They'll never make it 100% unless it's made mandatory. Repeated polls show that only around 80% of people intend to get the vaccine. Which means that by the end of June 100% of people who want it will have been vaccinated at least once.

Darwin · 18-04-2021 9:26pm

Cookiemunster wrote: »

They'll never make it 100% unless it's made mandatory. Repeated polls show that only around 80% of people intend to get the vaccine. Which means that by the end of June 100% of people who want it will have been vaccinated at least once.

I think that's being very optimistic with respect to end of June. So far less than 800,000 have had their first dose. They need to be doing around 250,000 a week to make that target I reckon.

Cookiemunster · 18-04-2021 10:50pm

Darwin wrote: »

I think that's being very optimistic with respect to end of June. So far less than 800,000 have had their first dose. They need to be doing around 250,000 a week to make that target I reckon.

838,644 first doses administered as of Friday. 250,000 a week is the target that they've set. If they push out the second dose of Pfizer past 4 weeks (which is rumoured to be happening), the 80% will have had their first dose well before the end of June.

lintdrummer · 18-04-2021 11:31pm

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/coalition-wanted-to-shut-out-travel-for-tourist-season-with-jab-passport-delay-40322401.html

Surprised this wasn't mentioned here. The Government intended to prevent international travel until after the Summer by delaying the introduction of a vaccine passport system. Supposedly this is not primarily out of a concern for public health but because they don't have the infrastructure to centrally record who has been vaccinated. Boggles the mind.

Irish Steve · 19-04-2021 12:19am

lintdrummer wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/coalition-wanted-to-shut-out-travel-for-tourist-season-with-jab-passport-delay-40322401.html

Surprised this wasn't mentioned here. The Government intended to prevent international travel until after the Summer by delaying the introduction of a vaccine passport system. Supposedly this is not primarily out of a concern for public health but because they don't have the infrastructure to centrally record who has been vaccinated. Boggles the mind.

You're surprised? I'm not in the least surprised, the political system can't wipe its arse without employing a clatter of consultants to advise them on how to do it, the HSE are still looking for the plug to put in in the bath so they can fill it, and companies like IBM and Hewlett Packard, along with the big accountancy/computer consultancy firms don't want anything like a coordinated and joined up thinking strategy from the relevant parties in Government, keeping multiple legacy computer systems that go back to the ark across multiple departments, with no coherent strategy to have any form of merging of common information is a massive earner for all of these external money gougers, and they have absoulutely zero to gain if they recommend any sort of rationalisation of state systems, and that's before the unions kick off.

bombs away · 19-04-2021 8:53am

Inquitus wrote: »

Those 20% are mainly made up of the elderly, those in care homes etc. not the actual travelling demographic. <snip>

And where are the figures to back this up???? You're saying old people don't travel??? Wow, just wow.

SNNUS · 19-04-2021 11:22am

AA Updates,

DUB-DFW Cancelled for 2021
DUB-CLT Delayed start/ probable cancellation for 2021

SNN-PHL Cancelled for 2021

It will take many years to reverse all this...

Inquitus · 19-04-2021 12:33pm

SNNUS wrote: »

AA Updates,

DUB-DFW Cancelled for 2021
DUB-CLT Delayed start/ probable cancellation for 2021

SNN-PHL Cancelled for 2021

It will take many years to reverse all this...

They have the planes, I would imagine they would return as soon as it is viable, at least I hope so. If we can get vaccinations to where they need to be by July then I would be hopeful.

Inquitus · 19-04-2021 12:41pm

bombs away wrote: »

And where are the figures to back this up???? You're saying old people don't travel??? Wow, just wow.

60% of Travel is by those under 45, of the remaining 40% the vast majority is in the 45-55 range. So given the avg age of vaccination is currently 70 and over, with 65-69 targeted next, it stands to reason the majority of those who fly are currently not vaccinated.

bombs away · 20-04-2021 9:15am

Inquitus wrote: »

60% of Travel is by those under 45, of the remaining 40% the vast majority is in the 45-55 range. So given the avg age of vaccination is currently 70 and over, with 65-69 targeted next, it stands to reason the majority of those who fly are currently not vaccinated.

Again completely wrong, here's a link to eurostat figures for the EU. Clearly shows that 20% of the travelling population of Europe are over 65 and nearly 33% are over 55. You really should stop making stuff up. The data with regards to vaccine rollout clearly indicates the middle of the summer whereas you're quoting figures for the present which aren't relevant at all.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/4/48/Shares_of_different_age_groups_in_the_15_years_or_over_tourist_population_and_in_the_15_years_or_over_total_population%2C_2018_%28%25%29.png

That also doesn't answer the question I asked as to why you think the majority of elderly people are in care homes or don't travel???

20-04-2021 9:59am

compromise and admit both are wrong in absence of data to prove otherwise. Stats which exclude those under 15 are no great proof of anything. stats which don't specify if population are flying or taking their car/train are not reliable w.r.t. the argument here. I know my neighbours travel a lot as Tourists but it is mostly done in train or car, not airplane.

bombs away · 20-04-2021 11:11am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

compromise and admit both are wrong in absence of data to prove otherwise. Stats which exclude those under 15 are no great proof of anything. stats which don't specify if population are flying or taking their car/train are not reliable w.r.t. the argument here. I know my neighbours travel a lot as Tourists but it is mostly done in train or car, not airplane.

I didn’t say anything about people under 15, what are you on about? If you had bothered to read back over my previous posts which clearly you haven’t, all I said was that if 20 percent of the adult population is allowed to travel from the summer onwards irrespective of whether that’s by plane train or automobile through the use of a green passport, it’s a significant amount more than are currently able to. Some people disagreed, I’m clearly pointing out facts here. If someone decides that doesn’t suit their narrative then that’s up to them but I’m getting a little tired of all this scaremongering that’s going on with regards to travel. It’s not the bloody bogeyman that people are making it out to be.

It’s funny that no one seems to have an issue with getting on a bus here at the moment or a train. Or the Luas, was crowded the other day when I was on it. But get on an aircraft and everyone loses their bloody minds. It needs to stop.

Tenger · 20-04-2021 11:14am

We can all disagree with another’s opinions if we want to. But we can do so as adults.

It’s difficult to change another’s views. We can present our own, preferably with supporting evidence, and see what happens.

mr.anonymous · 20-04-2021 11:29am

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0420/1210898-stobart-air-sold-to-ettyl/

Stobart Air and Carlisle Airport sold to Ettyl, Isle of Man based group.

Wonder what they'll do with it after the EIR franchise concludes at end of 2022.

basill · 20-04-2021 12:24pm

Suggest you pop over to Pprune and read about Ettyl and a vigorous discussion of differences between IOM oversight versus UK-CAA. It would be nice to think that the IAA would grow a pair given the very dark cloud that still hangs over the Cork crash and advise the government to either steer well clear or ensure that they are brought under Irish oversight.

mr.anonymous · 20-04-2021 12:32pm

basill wrote: »

Suggest you pop over to Pprune and read about Ettyl and a vigorous discussion of differences between IOM oversight versus UK-CAA. It would be nice to think that the IAA would grow a pair given the very dark cloud that still hangs over the Cork crash and advise the government to either steer well clear or ensure that they are brought under Irish oversight.

Isle of Man based virtual airline was enough to remind me of the Cork accident...

Inquitus · 20-04-2021 8:57pm

bombs away wrote: »

Again completely wrong, here's a link to eurostat figures for the EU. Clearly shows that 20% of the travelling population of Europe are over 65 and nearly 33% are over 55. You really should stop making stuff up. The data with regards to vaccine rollout clearly indicates the middle of the summer whereas you're quoting figures for the present which aren't relevant at all.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/4/48/Shares_of_different_age_groups_in_the_15_years_or_over_tourist_population_and_in_the_15_years_or_over_total_population%2C_2018_%28%25%29.png

That also doesn't answer the question I asked as to why you think the majority of elderly people are in care homes or don't travel???

This is from a representative survey of passengers at Dublin airport, as you can clearly see the number of passengers in the currently vaccinated age group is minimal.

https://www.nationaltransport.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NTA_StateAirportSurvey2016_ReportNovember2017.pdf

Blut2 · 20-04-2021 11:25pm

Inquitus wrote: »

This is from a representative survey of passengers at Dublin airport, as you can clearly see the number of passengers in the currently vaccinated age group is minimal.

https://www.nationaltransport.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/NTA_StateAirportSurvey2016_ReportNovember2017.pdf

The eurostat figures are much more accurate. Your study only surveyed 6000 passengers, in a very limited window:

The sampling frame was set for interviewing to take place on Monday to Friday only.

No weekend traffic would miss a huge amount of the older section of the population, who're much more likely to be traveling on Saturday to Saturday or Sunday to Sunday package holidays. And 6000 passengers being interviewed at gates is barely 20 flights worth of passengers, its easily skewed massively by which flights the interviewers focused on.

Inquitus · 20-04-2021 11:38pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The eurostat figures are much more accurate. Your study only surveyed 6000 passengers, in a very limited window:

No weekend traffic would miss a huge amount of the older section of the population, who're much more likely to be traveling on Saturday to Saturday or Sunday to Sunday package holidays. And 6000 passengers being interviewed at gates is barely 20 flights worth of passengers, its easily skewed massively by which flights the interviewers focused on.

The difference is minimal, currently we are still only vaccinating those over 70 in the general population, so the 15.5% of over 65's in the eurostat stats, is not much different to those in mine, and in regard to the percentage of those who are actually vaccinated, that's not going to shift the needle in terms of flight uptake as things stand. We all want things to normalise, but people on here are delusional about how soon it is going to happen and imprint their wants and wishes above common sense and reality, some thing they have constantly been doing for the last year and consistently wrong about. Achill Island for your holidays this years lads and lasses not the costa del sol.

bombs away · 21-04-2021 12:14am

Inquitus wrote: »

The difference is minimal, currently we are still only vaccinating those over 70 in the general population, so the 15.5% of over 65's in the eurostat stats, is not much different to those in mine, and in regard to the percentage of those who are actually vaccinated, that's not going to shift the needle in terms of flight uptake as things stand. We all want things to normalise, but people on here are delusional about how soon it is going to happen and imprint their wants and wishes above common sense and reality, some thing they have constantly been doing for the last year and consistently wrong about. Achill Island for your holidays this years lads and lasses not the costa del sol.

But we’re not talking about now are we. The EU passport system is meant to go live in June. So all your figures mean squat then. But that doesn’t suit your narrative does it? Yawn ðŸ¥±

Inquitus · 21-04-2021 10:54am

bombs away wrote: »

But we’re not talking about now are we. The EU passport system is meant to go live in June. So all your figures mean squat then. But that doesn’t suit your narrative does it? Yawn ��

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness. As things are going by June how many people will meet that criteria. It's nearly May and I am in the 45+ age group and haven't even got a hint of getting a first dose, that means even if I was vaccinated today it would be early to mid July by the time I qualify for the passport, and the chances of me being vaccinated today are close to zero, given we are still working on the 70+ age group.

Tenger · 21-04-2021 11:34am

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness.

The EU scheme may well have differing restrictions based on 1 dose or 2. Let's wait till its fully unveiled before criticising it.
The "Digital Green Certificate" document states that it covers vaccinated and recovered people. And any exemptions will still have to be in line with each member states health restrictions.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_1181

That claim about efficacy has already been debunked by two studies posted in response to you. Israeli studies show extremely good response after the 1st dose. And 90-95% within 2 weeks of the 2nd dose.
https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2021/02/covid-19-vaccines-and-immunity-how-long-does-it-take-for-the-vaccines-to-provide
https://theconversation.com/how-effective-is-the-first-shot-of-the-pfizer-or-moderna-vaccine-156615

The Irish vaccination program may be slow but a structure needs to be put in place in the next couple of weeks to allow travel in July/August.
I don't think anyone here thinks June will be "normal". The hope is that June will be the start of a return to normal.

I'm also in the 45+.but as with my parents I don't expect to get more than a 2 week heds up of my vaccine appointment.
Irish Govt say 80% of adults will have a dose by end of June. Thats still hugely impressive from where we were last June. If I had my 1st dose in mid June I could them make plans does late July or August.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-vaccine-ramp-up-to-see-80-of-adults-get-dose-by-june-martin-1.4493373

But we (my family) are being cautious and not mentally planning a foreign trip so as not to get the kids hopes up. The best we might get is a week in Spain.
So optimistic tinged with realism.

bombs away · 21-04-2021 12:21pm

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness. As things are going by June how many people will meet that criteria. It's nearly May and I am in the 45+ age group and haven't even got a hint of getting a first dose, that means even if I was vaccinated today it would be early to mid July by the time I qualify for the passport, and the chances of me being vaccinated today are close to zero, given we are still working on the 70+ age group.

It’s 14 days full efficacy after the second dose mate, not 8 weeks. And we’re not talking about travel today, as you just admitted it’s July when you qualify for the passport and it’s then that they’re planning for it.

Blut2 · 21-04-2021 12:24pm

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU Passport system only works if you are fully vaccinated, 2 doses and the 8 weeks thereafter for full effectiveness. As things are going by June how many people will meet that criteria. It's nearly May and I am in the 45+ age group and haven't even got a hint of getting a first dose, that means even if I was vaccinated today it would be early to mid July by the time I qualify for the passport, and the chances of me being vaccinated today are close to zero, given we are still working on the 70+ age group.

This is completely incorrect. The "EU passport scheme" as you're calling (the green/travel certificate in reality) allows travel anywhere in Europe if you have any ONE of the following three:

- Evidence of recovery from covid
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours
- Evidence of vaccination

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

So its open to everyone, there is no requirement to have been vaccinated - fully or not.

You're really posting a lot of very uninformed, completely incorrect, claims in this thread.

Inquitus · 21-04-2021 12:25pm

Blut2 wrote: »

This is completely incorrect. The "EU passport scheme" as you're calling (the green/travel certificate in reality) allows travel anywhere in Europe if you have any ONE of the following three:

- Evidence of recovery from covid
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours
- Evidence of vaccination

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

So its open to everyone, there is no requirement to have been vaccinated - fully or not.

You're really posting a lot of very uninformed, completely incorrect, claims in this thread.

- Evidence of recovery from covid Within the last 90 days
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours Highly costly for a family
- Evidence of vaccination Currently unknown when we might get fully vaccinated

Not a million miles different to the rules for flying to the states at the moment, which nigh on no one is doing.

Blut2 · 21-04-2021 12:49pm

Inquitus wrote: »

- Evidence of recovery from covid Within the last 90 days
- A negative PCR test taken within 72 hours Highly costly for a family
- Evidence of vaccination Currently unknown when we might get fully vaccinated

Not a million miles different to the rules for flying to the states at the moment, which nigh on no one is doing.

So you admit you were completely wrong on your claim that the EU green certificate is "only open to those who are fully vaccinated"?

PCR tests are down to 89eur in Ireland, and falling every month. They're as low as 30eur in other parts of Europe. An additional 120euro per person isn't going to put many people off travel who have their mind set to it (and/or when they've been unable to travel for an extended period of time, and saving lots of money as a result).

The rules for flying to the US are completely and utterly different. You cannot enter the US if you've been in the UK/Ireland/Schengen within the 14 days, and are not a US citizen.

Again, you obviously have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. You really need to go off and do some basic reading on the subject before posting about this.

IngazZagni · 21-04-2021 1:34pm

Blut2 wrote: »

PCR tests are down to 89eur in Ireland, and falling every month. They're as low as 30eur in other parts of Europe. An additional 120euro per person isn't going to put many people off travel who have their mind set to it (and/or when they've been unable to travel for an extended period of time, and saving lots of money as a result).

I still think relying on this PCR test is extremely risky. What if you tested positive at your holiday destination 2 days before you are due to travel home? You are screwed and your family will have to isolate for 2 weeks, probably at their own expense in a foreign Country.
I think most people will be waiting until they are fully vaccinated as it's much less risky.

NH2013 · 21-04-2021 1:36pm

I suppose one issue with the PCR test is what happens if you test positive while away, how do you pay for hotel or accommodation out of pocket to isolate for the two weeks until you can fly home again?

Therefore it's not really until people are vaccinated that I think we'll see significant levels of traffic again, even if the green pass allows for PCR testing.

I think that'll be used more for the case of business people going to business meetings or people visiting friends and relatives that would have somewhere to isolate for 2 weeks, rather than for the average holiday maker who won't be able to afford an extra two weeks in a hotel or apartment on top of their holiday already booked should they test positive.

NH2013 · 21-04-2021 1:36pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

I still think relying on this PCR test is extremely risky. What if you tested positive at your holiday destination 2 days before you are due to travel home? You are screwed and your family will have to isolate for 2 weeks, probably at their own expense in a foreign Country.
I think most people will be waiting until they are fully vaccinated as it's much less risky.

Read my mind.

Enduro · 21-04-2021 11:38pm

IngazZagni wrote: »

I still think relying on this PCR test is extremely risky. What if you tested positive at your holiday destination 2 days before you are due to travel home? You are screwed and your family will have to isolate for 2 weeks, probably at their own expense in a foreign Country.
I think most people will be waiting until they are fully vaccinated as it's much less risky.

The Canaries have an insurance policy for this that all visitors are automatically enrolled in.

PommieBast · 22-04-2021 2:04am

Suppose it was just a matter of time. Vaccine tourism package holidays.

bombs away · 22-04-2021 7:01am

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/international-holidays-could-return-in-thesummer-with-introduction-of-eu-wide-travel-certificate-40341693.html

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1385138378333642759

Nijmegen · 22-04-2021 11:15am

Michael O'Leary is predicting a full return on business travel (short haul anyway) by 2022. He noted that Ryanair sees about 30% biz pax, 30% people visiting friends and family and 40% leisure, so it's still a big bite for them.

O’Leary said he expected corporate travel to return to pre-Covid-19 levels by 2022 unless the pandemic unexpectedly worsened and vaccines did not allow people to travel freely again.

“All of these predictions business travel is dead . . . they generally always prove to be wrong,” he told the Financial Times’s Due Diligence Forum on Wednesday.

I would note that MOL is prone to making some pretty inaccurate statements where the pandemic is concerned. Early on he was pretty bullish about the "lunacy" of overreacting to Coronavirus. I guess we'll see if he's right on this or just talking up his book.

He did note that he thinks Ryanair could make breakeven this financial year. I guess based on a good summer.

O’Leary predicted that the carrier had a “reasonable chance” of breaking even in this financial year, which runs until March 2022, but added that was the best he could hope for.

Tenzor07 · 22-04-2021 11:16am

bombs away wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/international-holidays-could-return-in-thesummer-with-introduction-of-eu-wide-travel-certificate-40341693.html
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1385138378333642759

"Could return"..... "Too early.."Certainly, at some stage over the next number of months"... "wouldn't give an exact date" ... " “But, the exact date we have to hold back on. "“So, let’s just take it step by step."....

How can anyone listen to this Government? Ryan is only focused on reducing carbon emissions and would love noting better than to have a tiny aviation sector and people holidaying locally only.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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