Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

L1011

There were two warnings to stop general virus discussion. They are not being heeded. Cards will be issued.

There is a specific forum for general virus discussion

Gael23

I think there will be a lot of pent up demand in 2021 and provided airlines don’t hike up fares it won’t be all too bad

Jack1985

Ryanair says it has ''no alternative'' but to close bases in Cork and Shannon for the Winter in a letter circulated to staff there based on current Green List.

BZ

Ryanair threatening to close SNN and ORK bases for the winter unless the government do something about the travel restrictions. Temporary layoff of all staff and no guarantee of reopening the bases in March if things don't change.

Tenzor07

BZ wrote: »

Ryanair threatening to close SNN and ORK bases for the winter unless the government do something about the travel restrictions. Temporary layoff of all staff and no guarantee of reopening the bases in March if things don't change.

It's sad but it will happen.. I remember when Norwegian pulled the SNN-SWF for the winter season... The numbers just aren't there to sustain the numbers of aircraft in both airports...

If the current national restrictions stay for much longer then we could see the situation where SNN operates more as an Aerodrome just for US Mil stopovers and aircraft parking and maintenance.
Cork may go the same way as Waterford... And I mean if the rail link was extended to Dublin airport then could Ireland have just one International Airport?

HTCOne

With all the big pharma, tech and other multinationals, as well as a relatively decent sized and prosperous population, there will be enough demand for the big Euro cities out of Cork and Eastern European connections I reckon. Remember Cork was the fastest growing airport in the country before all this by quite a distance.

Multiple airfields on the island offering long haul is another matter. BFS lost all theirs and they have a much bigger population than the mid west, and are about the same commute away from DUB as SNN is. Only AA are currently down to operate out of SNN next year across the pond, with a 787. I would be surprised if that actually happens. United and AA retired their 757s, and don’t get 321xlrs til 2023 at the earliest (wouldn’t count on that though, production of new aircraft has slowed way down), so it might be years before we see one of the US3 back at SNN, if ever.

EI and FR both threatening SNN in particular will likely get them some assistance from the Government, it always has before.

Tenzor07

HTCOne wrote: »

With all the big pharma, tech and other multinationals, as well as a relatively decent sized and prosperous population, there will be enough demand for the big Euro cities out of Cork and Eastern European connections I reckon. Remember Cork was the fastest growing airport in the country before all this by quite a distance..

Big tech and pharma can have the majority of their workforce operating from home... with the effective travel ban on business travel then currently there's little or no demand for flights out of SNN or ORK... how long can the taxpayer prop up airports with no passengers? The CEO of Boeing is saying they expect little or no recovery in Aviation for 3 years at least...

Cookiemunster

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Big tech and pharma can have the majority of their workforce operating from home... with the effective travel ban on business travel then currently there's little or no demand for flights out of SNN or ORK... how long can the taxpayer prop up airports with no passengers? The CEO of Boeing is saying they expect little or no recovery in Aviation for 3 years at least...

Big tech might have most of the workforce ar home, but pharma is manufacturing which needs most people on site as are most of the other multinationals. They also needs airports to export their product. SNN has rarely been busier on the cargo side.

Tenzor07

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Big tech might have most of the workforce ar home, but pharma is manufacturing which needs most people on site as are most of the other multinationals. They also needs airports to export their product. SNN has rarely been busier on the cargo side.

Yea of course there's physical manufacturing but there's probably double or triple the amount of office based workers for most of the big pharma than there are operatives running the machines...

And that's why I said SNN could operate more like an Aerodrome, no commercial passengers, only cargo, parking/maintenance and Stopover flights for US Mil...

California Dreamer

Is this not the same old bluster by Ryanair? Winter, close bases, lay off staff etc etc. Get them being talked about in the newspapers and online content again. Seems to be a typical Ryanair MO.

LiamaDelta

California Dreamer wrote: »

Is this not the same old bluster by Ryanair? Winter, close bases, lay off staff etc etc. Get them being talked about in the newspapers and online content again. Seems to be a typical Ryanair MO.

IMO the guidelines/restrictions will only encourage a small number of extra passengers, and probably not enough to make routes sustainable. People don't want to travel when the virus is still a risk to them.

IngazZagni

Of course it is and they use their staffs livelihoods as a bargaining chip in lots of their negotiations. However Ryanair is so large that they are willing to cut some potentially profitable routes when they are trying to achieve something bigger. They can also close the base and still have most of the routes operated by crews from other Countries.

It will be a bleak winter for Cork and Shannon though. They have already announced that those bases will not operate on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays this winter already.

California Dreamer

California Dreamer wrote: »

Is this not the same old bluster by Ryanair? Winter, close bases, lay off staff etc etc. Get them being talked about in the newspapers and online content again. Seems to be a typical Ryanair MO.

https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Passenger-numbers-at-Cork-Airport-fell-by-91pc-in-July-b238abbb-75b9-4182-ae6a-575e8ae9342e-ds
Ryanaiar has never been run as a charity. It will minimise loses where it can. If there were some other airline likely to step in then it might not discontinue flights but that is unlikely.

Tenzor07

Fck me, look what this narcissist is saying now, he must have an election coming up in the next few months! He's talking about relaxing the restrictions his government let NPHET bring in...

Leo Varadkar told RTɒs Morning Ireland that Ireland may lose travel connectivity “for up to 4 years” if “strict” travel rules are not relaxed..
“probably only Iceland and Hungary” have rules that are stricter than Ireland’s; adding that if we’re serious about living with the virus long-term, that means allowing more air travel ...
Travel within Europe is about 40% of what it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, Varadkar said – but in Ireland, it’s around 5% or 10% of what it once was.
“Aviation is a huge industry for Ireland, we’re an island nation, we depend on connectivity for business.”

https://www.thejournal.ie/tanaiste-air-travel-5199828-Sep2020/

Cookiemunster

Wow, it's almost like in an constantly evolving situation the regulations will change to suit the situation. :rolleyes:

MadYaker

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Fck me, look what this narcissist is saying now, he must have an election coming up in the next few months! He's talking about relaxing the restrictions his government let NPHET bring in...





https://www.thejournal.ie/tanaiste-air-travel-5199828-Sep2020/

Smart people update their views when new information comes available but sure keep foaming at the mouth there good man

Tenzor07

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Wow, it's almost like in an constantly evolving situation the regulations will change to suit the situation. :rolleyes:

Wow it's almost like Ireland has been out of step with the rest of Europe for over 2 months now.. oh wait.. they have!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/government-committed-to-finalising-roadmap-for-safe-overseas-travel-shortly-1.4293413

Tenzor07

MadYaker wrote: »

Smart people update their views when new information comes available but sure keep foaming at the mouth there good man

Do you have anything to say on the points I raised or just like to post random jibes at people for your own entertainment?

kona

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Wow, it's almost like in an constantly evolving situation the regulations will change to suit the situation. :rolleyes:

Ah come on, do the government think airlines can afford to magic up their whole fleet and crew for a month then put it all back into storage?

Cookiemunster

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Wow it's almost like Ireland has been out of step with the rest of Europe for over 2 months now.. oh wait.. they have!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/government-committed-to-finalising-roadmap-for-safe-overseas-travel-shortly-1.4293413

And now, with more information they're talking about changing it. As I said the situation is constantly evolving. But you know if you want to just slag off Varadker, then work away.

kona wrote: »

Ah come on, do the government think airlines can afford to magic up their whole fleet and crew for a month then put it all back into storage?

I've no idea what on earth you're on about, but it's not in anyway relevant to the point I was making.

Irish Steve

Keep it civil please, I know it's been a long few months, but we would like to avoid descending into the gutter like some other sites have done. Thanks

Tenzor07

Cookiemunster wrote: »

And now, with more information they're talking about changing it. As I said the situation is constantly evolving. But you know if you want to just slag off Varadker, then work away.
I've no idea what on earth you're on about, but it's not in anyway relevant to the point I was making.

Now with more information!? EASA and the EU have had recommendations on travel within the EU for months now, which the Irish Govt. hasn't followed, even your Leo said that Ireland is equal to only Hungary in the EU with the level of restrictions!
Meanwhile the ramp up at Dublin airport is like a slow Sunday at the best of times, Shannon and Cork are in danger of being closed for the Winter or longer..
It's a messy and unscientific 14 day isolation that your Leo and Mehole haven't changed in 2months when they could have opened the country for business and travel again..

Cookiemunster

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Now with more information!? EASA and the EU have had recommendations on travel within the EU for months now, which the Irish Govt. hasn't followed, even your Leo said that Ireland is equal to only Hungary in the EU with the level of restrictions!
Meanwhile the ramp up at Dublin airport is like a slow Sunday at the best of times, Shannon and Cork are in danger of being closed for the Winter or longer..
It's a messy and unscientific 14 day isolation that your Leo and Mehole haven't changed in 2months when they could have opened the country for business and travel again..

My Leo? Ah come on now. If you're not willing to actually properly discuss the governments actions without resorting to insults then there's little point engaging with you.

And for your information, I've totally disagreed with government policy on aviation and many other things, but do I understand their point of view when coming to those decisions. And I'm definitely no fan at all of Leo Varadker, but I don't see the point of childish name calling.

gral6

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Fck me, look what this narcissist is saying now, he must have an election coming up in the next few months! He's talking about relaxing the restrictions his government let NPHET bring in...







https://www.thejournal.ie/tanaiste-air-travel-5199828-Sep2020/

I'll vote for Leo if he lifts that stupid travel restrictions.

awec

Does closing bases in Cork and Shannon mean no Ryanair flights in/out of those airports over the winter?

Didn't Aer Lingus threaten the same? Surely neither airport could survive without Ryanair and Aer Lingus?

gral6

awec wrote: »

Does closing bases in Cork and Shannon mean no Ryanair flights in/out of those airports over the winter?

Didn't Aer Lingus threaten the same? Surely neither airport could survive without Ryanair and Aer Lingus?

If Ryanair close their bases in Shannon and Cork, they will not be back there.
People from Cork will continue worshipping MM for that.

Tenzor07

gral6 wrote: »

If Ryanair close their bases in Shannon and Cork, they will not be back there.
People from Cork will continue worshipping MM for that.

I can see them closing the bases, they can still run a couple of flights a week out of other bases if there's any demand...

FFFG-NPHET have to align with the rest of the EU now if they want to protect Irish jobs... no more "Maybes", "we would like", aren't acceptable to anyone now...Ryanair have enough cash to stay afloat and i'm not worried about them, my concern is for those working at the airports who support the flights..

marno21

awec wrote: »

Does closing bases in Cork and Shannon mean no Ryanair flights in/out of those airports over the winter?

Didn't Aer Lingus threaten the same? Surely neither airport could survive without Ryanair and Aer Lingus?

Ryanair would operate a limited scheduled from other bases.

For example, they operated a 4 per week Cork-Stansted flight using a Stansted based aircraft during lockdown.

BZ

BA looking at selling or scrapping 4 of their A380s.

https://www.airlive.net/breaking-british-airways-is-considering-to-withdraw-4-of-its-airbus-a380s/

NH2013

awec wrote: »

Does closing bases in Cork and Shannon mean no Ryanair flights in/out of those airports over the winter?

Didn't Aer Lingus threaten the same? Surely neither airport could survive without Ryanair and Aer Lingus?

Potentially still some limited routes from airports they already have crew and aircraft based at such as Stansted or Manchester, but the jobs would all be moved overseas, as there wouldn't be enough demand in Cork alone to justify keeping the staff on and aircraft based there.

Whether they come back next year is another question, there's definitely demand there as has been shown before COVID, whether that demand could be fully served using aircraft and crew based elsewhere is the question, and depending on the sorts of routes that come back it may be a case alright that routes come back from airports they have bases at such as Manchester, Stansted, Malaga, Faro, Rome, Alicante etc, but the jobs never return.