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Is this the end of Democrat front runner Joe Biden?

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    #1502
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,433 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    Ok...stay in your NYT bubble they'll keep you informed I've no doubt!

    https://news.sky.com/story/uncertainty-and-fear-fuel-record-surge-in-us-gun-ownership-applications-12019315

    where in that article does it state that it's Dems buying the guns?


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    #1503
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,205 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    Ok...stay in your NYT bubble they'll keep you informed I've no doubt!

    https://news.sky.com/story/uncertainty-and-fear-fuel-record-surge-in-us-gun-ownership-applications-12019315

    where in the article does it say who is buying these guns? it is existing gun owners, new gun owners, democrats, republicans, males, females, young, old? without that information how can you draw any conclusions?


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    #1504
    Silentcorner
    Registered Users Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    where in the article does it say who is buying these guns? it is existing gun owners, new gun owners, democrats, republicans, males, females, young, old? without that information how can you draw any conclusions?

    40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

    It's not a poll so it doesn't get into that kind of depth...but it doesn't take a genius to figure it out!

    Defunding police forces is going to have a reaction and a continued reaction as the consequences of it are born out in the crime stats.


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    #1505
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,205 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

    It's not a poll so it doesn't get into that kind of depth...but it doesn't take a genius to figure it out!

    Defunding police forces is going to have a reaction and a continued reaction as the consequences of it are born out in the crime stats.

    so you dont know if they are democrats or republicans so you cannot say what effect this might have on the election


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    #1506
    Silentcorner
    Registered Users Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    so you dont know if they are democrats or republicans so you cannot say what effect this might have on the election

    Ya your probably right...$100s of millions worth of urban destruction, riots, pulling down statues, protests and a surge in gun sales probably will have no impact in the election in just over 4 months.


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    #1507
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,520 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    Ya your probably right...$100s of millions worth of urban destruction, riots, pulling down statues, protests and a surge in gun sales probably will have no impact in the election in just over 4 months.

    It will, when people think about the guy who fanned the flames by saying they didn't have legitimate grievances, and begged state governors to get tough with protesters and violently interrupted peaceful protesters for a photo op.

    It'll definitely have an impact.


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    #1508
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

    It's not a poll so it doesn't get into that kind of depth...but it doesn't take a genius to figure it out!

    Defunding police forces is going to have a reaction and a continued reaction as the consequences of it are born out in the crime stats.

    It’s gas how you’ll make fun of me for reading one of the most respected news organisations on the planet, while you just make stuff up off the top of your head and expect us to find it credible.


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    #1509
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,433 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    KiKi III wrote: »
    It’s gas how you’ll make fun of me for reading one of the most respected news organisations on the planet, while you just make stuff up off the top of your head and expect us to find it credible.

    And then links to sky news :pac:


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    #1510
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,573 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    40% of purchasers are first time gun owners, it is reported in the article you read.

    No, there is a quote from a representative of a gun industry lobby saying they have estimated that 40% of purchasers are first time gun owners without any indication of where they are getting the numbers from.

    Maybe the issue isn't the media, but your understanding of what they are actually saying?


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    #1511
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Basically whenever the second amendment gets a mention, it tends to result in gun owners buying even more guns so it's not exactly surprising. I would be pretty doubtful that such a large sum are first time buyers.


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    #1512
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    Follow the money, the momentum is with Joe Biden: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/politics/trump-fundraising-2020.html


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    #1513
    Silentcorner
    Registered Users Posts: 6,189 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    KiKi III wrote: »
    It’s gas how you’ll make fun of me for reading one of the most respected news organisations on the planet, while you just make stuff up off the top of your head and expect us to find it credible.

    I think you'll find that you accused me of conjuring up stories about gun ownership, a quick google search would have confirmed it...

    https://www.google.ie/search?ei=cCj-Xsy4G4KE1fAPhpSViA4&q=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&oq=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoICCEQFhAdEB46BggAEBYQHjoCCAA6BggAEAcQHjoECAAQDToGCAAQDRAeOggIABANEAUQHlCMHljUU2D6WWgAcAB4AIABVIgBhQqSAQIxOZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjMsLekmq_qAhUCQhUIHQZKBeEQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

    And I won't be ridiculed by someone who thinks the NYT is a reliable source, what was the last time, Hillary has a 91% chance of winning the election was it?

    http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html


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    #1514
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,433 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    I think you'll find that you accused me of conjuring up stories about gun ownership, a quick google search would have confirmed it...

    https://www.google.ie/search?ei=cCj-Xsy4G4KE1fAPhpSViA4&q=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&oq=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoICCEQFhAdEB46BggAEBYQHjoCCAA6BggAEAcQHjoECAAQDToGCAAQDRAeOggIABANEAUQHlCMHljUU2D6WWgAcAB4AIABVIgBhQqSAQIxOZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjMsLekmq_qAhUCQhUIHQZKBeEQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

    And I won't be ridiculed by someone who thinks the NYT is a reliable source, what was the last time, Hillary has a 91% chance of winning the election was it?

    http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

    You claimed it was Democrats buying the guns, we're still waiting for the evidence to back up this claim.


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    #1515
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    I think you'll find that you accused me of conjuring up stories about gun ownership, a quick google search would have confirmed it...

    https://www.google.ie/search?ei=cCj-Xsy4G4KE1fAPhpSViA4&q=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&oq=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoICCEQFhAdEB46BggAEBYQHjoCCAA6BggAEAcQHjoECAAQDToGCAAQDRAeOggIABANEAUQHlCMHljUU2D6WWgAcAB4AIABVIgBhQqSAQIxOZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjMsLekmq_qAhUCQhUIHQZKBeEQ4dUDCAw&uact=5
    ]

    I don’t see the part about rifle ranges suddenly being full of middle aged Democrat women? That’s the bit you just made up in your head.

    ‘Merican’s love guns, that’s hardly news.


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    #1516
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,573 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    And I won't be ridiculed by someone who thinks the NYT is a reliable source, what was the last time, Hillary has a 91% chance of winning the election was it?

    A) that is before the final Comey intervention

    B) Since when is 91 = 100?


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    #1517
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    If you’d asked me six months ago I would have been resigned to a second term for Trump.

    But right now it’s Biden’s to lose.

    A good VP choice and a solid performance in the debates and it’s his.

    Given how much Trump made of Clinton’s failure to act on Benghazi, this latest story about Trump’s failure to protect troops in Afghanistan could be massive.


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    #1518
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,520 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    KiKi III wrote: »
    Given how much Trump made of Clinton’s failure to act on Benghazi, this latest story about Trump’s failure to protect troops in Afghanistan could be massive.

    It should be, but so too should so much of everything else made a song and dance about when he wasn't President.
    • The amount of time Obama golfed.
    • The unemployment figures.
    • The performance during the H5N1 outbreak.

    He was an expert on the fence on all of these topics before he got the job and yet it doesn't cost him or his supporters a wink of sleep the fact that he has performed so poorly by his own metrics.
    It's very interesting from a social analysis perspective.


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    #1519
    KiKi III
    Registered Users Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    Tell me how wrote: »
    It should be, but so too should so much of everything else made a song and dance about when he wasn't President.
    • The amount of time Obama golfed.
    • The unemployment figures.
    • The performance during the H5N1 outbreak.

    He was an expert on the fence on all of these topics before he got the job and yet it doesn't cost him or his supporters a wink of sleep the fact that he has performed so poorly by his own metrics.
    It's very interesting from a social analysis perspective.

    The military is usually a solid Republican voter base though, so I think this could be different. If they feel he’s failing as commander-in-chief, that will alienate a lot of people that traditionally vote red.


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    #1520
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,087 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    But that is just it, they are silent, they have existed in the past in the US...in the very recent past in the UK...if there was ever going to be such a thing as a silent majority, this election is it.

    There is no "Silent Majority" and there never has been .

    As I've already said - Trumps win in 2016 was absolutely without the parameters of the data , the only "anomoly" was him getting the bounce of the ball in all of the tight races in the swing states - That's why the data had him at about a 30% chance overall , because statistically him winning all of them was a roughly 1:3 chance. In betting terms a decent bet.

    In isolation , each win was perfectly reasonable and within the expected statistical likelihoods.

    There was no "Silent Majority" that came out of the wood-work to vote for him , nor is there one now.

    His challenge now is to recreate those tight races to give himself a shout. Today , there are virtually none.

    The typical Margin of error (MOE) in the polls is between 2-4% .

    There are currently 15 States considered "Swing States" today accounting for 191 Electoral college votes. On the basis of the solid Blue and Red states , Biden has 222 EC votes locked in and Trump currently has 125.

    Biden has a lead well outside the Margin of Error in 7 of those accounting for 97 EC Votes , Trump leads outside MOE in 1 (Georgia , 16 EC votes) but only just and there are 6 where the gap is inside the MOE - Trump leads in 3 , Biden in 2 and a Dead heat in the other.

    If the Election was today , even with those final 5 undecided , Biden has 319 EC votes (he needs 270) to Trumps 141 , he can afford to lose 3 or maybe even 4 of the 7 and still win.

    There is no Silent Majority going to come riding in to save Trump , unless he gets himself into the lead or inside the MOE in those 7 States where Biden leads he is toast. And even then he still only has at best a 1:4 chance of winning.

    No if , No buts , No maybes.

    Can he get to that level before voting starts ?? Of course he can.

    But he is rapidly running out of time - Voting starts in a lot of States as early as the end of September and with all that's going on I suspect a much higher proportion of people are going to be making use of early voting etc. to avoid queues and crowds.

    So in real terms he's got maybe 8-10 weeks to move the needle.

    Tick Tock......


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    #1521
    baaba maal
    Registered Users Posts: 772 ✭✭✭baaba maal


    Silentcorner wrote: »
    You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

    So where did you read about the big spike in gun ownership and the hundreds of millions of dollars in damages caused by BLM?

    For the record, with a gun ownership rate of 120 guns per 100 people it doesn't matter if a few million more go into circulation.


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    #1522
    amdublin
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 20,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭amdublin


    Hear me out on this.

    Has a Democrat ever had a Republican running mate? I believe the USA needs unity now.

    How about Joe Biden & Condoleezza Rice?


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    #1523
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,205 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    amdublin wrote: »
    Hear me out on this.

    Has a Democrat ever had a Republican running mate? I believe the USA needs unity now.

    How about Joe Biden & Condoleezza Rice?

    Lincoln had a democrat as a running mate.


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    #1524
    amdublin
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 20,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭amdublin


    Hear me out on this.

    Has a Democrat ever had a Republican running mate? I believe the USA needs unity now.

    How about Joe Biden & Condoleezza Rice?


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    #1525
    amdublin
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 20,648 CMod ✭✭✭✭amdublin


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    Lincoln had a democrat as a running mate.

    Interesting!


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    #1526
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,205 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    i dont think i have ever seen double posts that were 15 minutes apart.


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    #1527
    paul71
    Registered Users Posts: 3,116 ✭✭✭paul71


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    Lincoln had a democrat as a running mate.

    If my memory of history serves me correctly the first few Vice presidents were actually the defeated presidential candidates.


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    #1528
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,205 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    paul71 wrote: »
    If my memory of history serves me correctly the first few Vice presidents were actually the defeated presidential candidates.

    that was the case initially, yes. the winner of the electoral college became president and the runner-up became vice-president.


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    #1529
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Bill clinton to my knowledge is last president to give a top ranking job across party line. William Cohen was Secretary of defence


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    #1530
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 81,876 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    What even is the point of trying to determine the partisanship of gun buyers this summer? Surely all sides have reasons to arm. I certainly would applaud the left arming as much as the right, perhaps then the right would realize the importance of enacting common sense gun regulations when they don’t perceive themselves as the lopsided carriers. The left should indeed be armed and present if or when this presidency tries to ram through any sort of grossly unjust measures, such as, rumors swirling that McConnel is considering ignoring his own well established “Biden Rule” to confirm a replacement for conservative Justice Clarence Thomas either ahead of the election or before Trump leaves office next January. That in my humble opinion would rise to the call for armed protests on the mall the same way many Americans stormed their state capitols to get haircuts.


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    #1531
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,615 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    But he is rapidly running out of time - Voting starts in a lot of States as early as the end of September and with all that's going on I suspect a much higher proportion of people are going to be making use of early voting etc. to avoid queues and crowds.

    So in real terms he's got maybe 8-10 weeks to move the needle.

    Tick Tock......


    yeah if Trump is to win this he needs to see an improvement in his polling numbers very soon. Given his cock ups on the virus and race relations the only way he can win this now is off the back of a good economy. Problem with that is he wanted states to open up early, they did that and now they have the virus hitting them hard so theyre having to shut down again with the loss of jobs and economic activity. Because he messed up on the virus so bad its now hitting his chances of getting the economy back on track and thats the only real chance he has of winning this election.


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