Is this the end of Democrat front runner Joe Biden?

KiKi III

Follow the money, the momentum is with Joe Biden: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/politics/trump-fundraising-2020.html

Silentcorner

KiKi III wrote: »

It’s gas how you’ll make fun of me for reading one of the most respected news organisations on the planet, while you just make stuff up off the top of your head and expect us to find it credible.

I think you'll find that you accused me of conjuring up stories about gun ownership, a quick google search would have confirmed it...

https://www.google.ie/search?ei=cCj-Xsy4G4KE1fAPhpSViA4&q=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&oq=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoICCEQFhAdEB46BggAEBYQHjoCCAA6BggAEAcQHjoECAAQDToGCAAQDRAeOggIABANEAUQHlCMHljUU2D6WWgAcAB4AIABVIgBhQqSAQIxOZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjMsLekmq_qAhUCQhUIHQZKBeEQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

And I won't be ridiculed by someone who thinks the NYT is a reliable source, what was the last time, Hillary has a 91% chance of winning the election was it?

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

Timberrrrrrrr

Silentcorner wrote: »

I think you'll find that you accused me of conjuring up stories about gun ownership, a quick google search would have confirmed it...

https://www.google.ie/search?ei=cCj-Xsy4G4KE1fAPhpSViA4&q=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&oq=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoICCEQFhAdEB46BggAEBYQHjoCCAA6BggAEAcQHjoECAAQDToGCAAQDRAeOggIABANEAUQHlCMHljUU2D6WWgAcAB4AIABVIgBhQqSAQIxOZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjMsLekmq_qAhUCQhUIHQZKBeEQ4dUDCAw&uact=5

And I won't be ridiculed by someone who thinks the NYT is a reliable source, what was the last time, Hillary has a 91% chance of winning the election was it?

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

You claimed it was Democrats buying the guns, we're still waiting for the evidence to back up this claim.

KiKi III

Silentcorner wrote: »

I think you'll find that you accused me of conjuring up stories about gun ownership, a quick google search would have confirmed it...

https://www.google.ie/search?ei=cCj-Xsy4G4KE1fAPhpSViA4&q=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&oq=surge+in+gun+ownership+in+the+US+&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQAzoICCEQFhAdEB46BggAEBYQHjoCCAA6BggAEAcQHjoECAAQDToGCAAQDRAeOggIABANEAUQHlCMHljUU2D6WWgAcAB4AIABVIgBhQqSAQIxOZgBAKABAaoBB2d3cy13aXo&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjMsLekmq_qAhUCQhUIHQZKBeEQ4dUDCAw&uact=5
]

I don’t see the part about rifle ranges suddenly being full of middle aged Democrat women? That’s the bit you just made up in your head.

‘Merican’s love guns, that’s hardly news.

Podge_irl

Silentcorner wrote: »

And I won't be ridiculed by someone who thinks the NYT is a reliable source, what was the last time, Hillary has a 91% chance of winning the election was it?

A) that is before the final Comey intervention

Since when is 91 = 100?

KiKi III

If you’d asked me six months ago I would have been resigned to a second term for Trump.

But right now it’s Biden’s to lose.

A good VP choice and a solid performance in the debates and it’s his.

Given how much Trump made of Clinton’s failure to act on Benghazi, this latest story about Trump’s failure to protect troops in Afghanistan could be massive.

Tell me how

KiKi III wrote: »

Given how much Trump made of Clinton’s failure to act on Benghazi, this latest story about Trump’s failure to protect troops in Afghanistan could be massive.

It should be, but so too should so much of everything else made a song and dance about when he wasn't President.

• The amount of time Obama golfed.
• The unemployment figures.
• The performance during the H5N1 outbreak.

He was an expert on the fence on all of these topics before he got the job and yet it doesn't cost him or his supporters a wink of sleep the fact that he has performed so poorly by his own metrics.
It's very interesting from a social analysis perspective.

KiKi III

Tell me how wrote: »

It should be, but so too should so much of everything else made a song and dance about when he wasn't President.

• The amount of time Obama golfed.
• The unemployment figures.
• The performance during the H5N1 outbreak.

He was an expert on the fence on all of these topics before he got the job and yet it doesn't cost him or his supporters a wink of sleep the fact that he has performed so poorly by his own metrics.
It's very interesting from a social analysis perspective.

The military is usually a solid Republican voter base though, so I think this could be different. If they feel he’s failing as commander-in-chief, that will alienate a lot of people that traditionally vote red.

Quin_Dub

Silentcorner wrote: »

But that is just it, they are silent, they have existed in the past in the US...in the very recent past in the UK...if there was ever going to be such a thing as a silent majority, this election is it.

There is no "Silent Majority" and there never has been .

As I've already said - Trumps win in 2016 was absolutely without the parameters of the data , the only "anomoly" was him getting the bounce of the ball in all of the tight races in the swing states - That's why the data had him at about a 30% chance overall , because statistically him winning all of them was a roughly 1:3 chance. In betting terms a decent bet.

In isolation , each win was perfectly reasonable and within the expected statistical likelihoods.

There was no "Silent Majority" that came out of the wood-work to vote for him , nor is there one now.

His challenge now is to recreate those tight races to give himself a shout. Today , there are virtually none.

The typical Margin of error (MOE) in the polls is between 2-4% .

There are currently 15 States considered "Swing States" today accounting for 191 Electoral college votes. On the basis of the solid Blue and Red states , Biden has 222 EC votes locked in and Trump currently has 125.

Biden has a lead well outside the Margin of Error in 7 of those accounting for 97 EC Votes , Trump leads outside MOE in 1 (Georgia , 16 EC votes) but only just and there are 6 where the gap is inside the MOE - Trump leads in 3 , Biden in 2 and a Dead heat in the other.

If the Election was today , even with those final 5 undecided , Biden has 319 EC votes (he needs 270) to Trumps 141 , he can afford to lose 3 or maybe even 4 of the 7 and still win.

There is no Silent Majority going to come riding in to save Trump , unless he gets himself into the lead or inside the MOE in those 7 States where Biden leads he is toast. And even then he still only has at best a 1:4 chance of winning.

No if , No buts , No maybes.

Can he get to that level before voting starts ?? Of course he can.

But he is rapidly running out of time - Voting starts in a lot of States as early as the end of September and with all that's going on I suspect a much higher proportion of people are going to be making use of early voting etc. to avoid queues and crowds.

So in real terms he's got maybe 8-10 weeks to move the needle.

Tick Tock......

baaba maal

Silentcorner wrote: »

You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

So where did you read about the big spike in gun ownership and the hundreds of millions of dollars in damages caused by BLM?

For the record, with a gun ownership rate of 120 guns per 100 people it doesn't matter if a few million more go into circulation.

amdublin

Hear me out on this.

Has a Democrat ever had a Republican running mate? I believe the USA needs unity now.

How about Joe Biden & Condoleezza Rice?

ohnonotgmail

amdublin wrote: »

Hear me out on this.

Has a Democrat ever had a Republican running mate? I believe the USA needs unity now.

How about Joe Biden & Condoleezza Rice?

Lincoln had a democrat as a running mate.

amdublin

Hear me out on this.

Has a Democrat ever had a Republican running mate? I believe the USA needs unity now.

How about Joe Biden & Condoleezza Rice?

amdublin

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Lincoln had a democrat as a running mate.

Interesting!

ohnonotgmail

i dont think i have ever seen double posts that were 15 minutes apart.

paul71

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Lincoln had a democrat as a running mate.

If my memory of history serves me correctly the first few Vice presidents were actually the defeated presidential candidates.

ohnonotgmail

paul71 wrote: »

If my memory of history serves me correctly the first few Vice presidents were actually the defeated presidential candidates.

that was the case initially, yes. the winner of the electoral college became president and the runner-up became vice-president.

rossie1977

Bill clinton to my knowledge is last president to give a top ranking job across party line. William Cohen was Secretary of defence

Overheal

What even is the point of trying to determine the partisanship of gun buyers this summer? Surely all sides have reasons to arm. I certainly would applaud the left arming as much as the right, perhaps then the right would realize the importance of enacting common sense gun regulations when they don’t perceive themselves as the lopsided carriers. The left should indeed be armed and present if or when this presidency tries to ram through any sort of grossly unjust measures, such as, rumors swirling that McConnel is considering ignoring his own well established “Biden Rule” to confirm a replacement for conservative Justice Clarence Thomas either ahead of the election or before Trump leaves office next January. That in my humble opinion would rise to the call for armed protests on the mall the same way many Americans stormed their state capitols to get haircuts.

Muahahaha

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But he is rapidly running out of time - Voting starts in a lot of States as early as the end of September and with all that's going on I suspect a much higher proportion of people are going to be making use of early voting etc. to avoid queues and crowds.

So in real terms he's got maybe 8-10 weeks to move the needle.

Tick Tock......

yeah if Trump is to win this he needs to see an improvement in his polling numbers very soon. Given his cock ups on the virus and race relations the only way he can win this now is off the back of a good economy. Problem with that is he wanted states to open up early, they did that and now they have the virus hitting them hard so theyre having to shut down again with the loss of jobs and economic activity. Because he messed up on the virus so bad its now hitting his chances of getting the economy back on track and thats the only real chance he has of winning this election.

Pa ElGrande

There’s a War Going On Over Kamala Harris’s Wikipedia Page, with Unflattering Elements Vanishing

California Democratic Sen. Kamala Harris is widely seen as a frontrunner for a spot on the ticket with presumptive nominee Joe Biden, with vetting well underway.
<snip>
In 2016, The Atlantic published an article about Wikipedia edits and how a burst of activity could foreshadow Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential pick, noting that Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine’s page had seen significantly more edits than any other candidate’s in the weeks leading up to the announcement. The article also cited a 2008 Washington Post report about Sarah Palin’s Wikipedia page seeing more than 65 edits in the hours leading up to John McCain’s announcement.


source

is_that_so

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

There’s a War Going On Over Kamala Harris’s Wikipedia Page, with Unflattering Elements Vanishing

Her track record is public, she'll rise or fall on that, if she gets the nod. Wikipedia is a handy source but often prone to silliness and people's notions.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei6O14Td89g

Full video of the press conference on the topic: “New details in the case of Burisma bribe, as well as new records of conversations testifying to international corruption and the external governance of Ukraine” with English subtitles

Starting fee for closing case against Burisma, Biden family was $50 million – Kulyk

Derkach claimed "the Bidens were suspicious, but disappeared along the way, together with another $44 million dollars, which was the main part of the bribe."

"Everyone made good money. Even stranger is the absence of Biden's name in the case in which he definitely appears, according to NABU Director (Artem) Sytnyk, who does not want to interfere in international political processes. The cynicism of the proposal is astounding. It was namely Sytnyk who interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election using fakes from the so-called 'black ledger' incriminating Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort," Derkach said.

source

amdublin

Kanye is throwing his hat in the ring?

KiKi III

amdublin wrote: »

Kanye is throwing his hat in the ring?

I hope he’s not serious.

jj880

Stunt from Kanye to split Bidens vote and help Trump?

duploelabs

jj880 wrote: »

Stunt from Kanye to split Bidens vote and help Trump?

A stunt for Kanye to sell more of his albums that's released next week, nothing more

Quin_Dub

duploelabs wrote: »

A stunt for Kanye to sell more of his albums that's released next week, nothing more

Didn't realise he had an album due out..

That explains it...

notobtuse

Apparently patriotism is out of fashion with Democrats. And Joe Biden doesn’t seem to like America much. Now Crazy Joe wants to transform me. Apparently anyone without a (D) behind their names is part of the racist, broken, and damaged section of America. Are we freakin’ even living in the same country, you old fool? Democrat run hell-hole cities give us riots, violence, destruction, and mayhem. That’s what Biden wants for the rest of us?

No thank you, Joe!

notobtuse

notobtuse wrote: »

Apparently patriotism is out of fashion with Democrats. And Joe Biden doesn’t seem to like America much. Now Crazy Joe wants to transform me. Apparently anyone without a (D) behind their names is part of the racist, broken, and damaged section of America. Are we freakin’ even living in the same country, you old fool? Democrat run hell-hole cities give us riots, violence, destruction, and mayhem. That’s what Biden wants for the rest of us?

No thank you, Joe!

It's really difficult to pull a coherent thought out of that...