Is this the end of Democrat front runner Joe Biden?

weisses

notobtuse wrote: »

Apparently patriotism is out of fashion with Democrats. And Joe Biden doesn’t seem to like America much. Now Crazy Joe wants to transform me. Apparently anyone without a (D) behind their names is part of the racist, broken, and damaged section of America. Are we freakin’ even living in the same country, you old fool? Democrat run hell-hole cities give us riots, violence, destruction, and mayhem. That’s what Biden wants for the rest of us?

No thank you, Joe!

Quin_Dub

notobtuse wrote: »

Apparently patriotism is out of fashion with Democrats. And Joe Biden doesn’t seem to like America much. Now Crazy Joe wants to transform me. Apparently anyone without a (D) behind their names is part of the racist, broken, and damaged section of America. Are we freakin’ even living in the same country, you old fool? Democrat run hell-hole cities give us riots, violence, destruction, and mayhem. That’s what Biden wants for the rest of us?

No thank you, Joe!

Welcome back...

Just to recap where we left off..

You said

notobtuse wrote: »

According to Gallup (and the numbers change weekly) on average it looks like people identify as the following: 30% Republican, 38% Independent, and 30% Democrat.

I heard about these polls on talk radio (NPR I believe) notoriously oversampling democrats and undersampling republicans. I’ve look through a number of recent polls and they seemingly provide lots of information EXCEPT the number of people sampled by political party. Wonder why? Because it would expose those numbers indicating a glaring flaw in the sampling, perhaps? Now if someone can find data on a recent poll showing Trump down by 8-10 points, and with the breakdown of sampled respondents by party it would be most appreciated. And if you can find the information by 'REGISTERED’ voters it would be so much better.

And I replied

Quin_Dub wrote: »

You mean like this one???

This is the Rasmussen Poll on John Solomons website - A GOP friendly pollster on a VERY GOP Friendly website...




Polling methodology shown here giving the breakdown by party affiliation and voter registration.

Demographic breakdown shown here


So - Are we done now with the "The polls are biased" crap or will you find another reason to not believe the facts?

So - You have polling data that meets your requirements that shows Biden with a comfortable lead at present , Now what??

Muahahaha

duploelabs wrote: »

A stunt for Kanye to sell more of his albums that's released next week, nothing more

I think it could be deeper than that with Kanye acting as a stalking horse for Trump. Ultimately he wants to get Biden one on one on a tv network and take him to task about his gaffe saying you are not black if you vote Republican. Kanye can spend a few months banging that drum and if he truly enters the race its the main thing I see him there for.

Quin_Dub

Muahahaha wrote: »

I think it could be deeper than that with Kanye acting as a stalking horse for Trump. Ultimately he wants to get Biden one on one on a tv network and take him to task about his gaffe saying you are not black if you vote Republican. Kanye can spend a few months banging that drum and if he truly enters the race its the main thing I see him there for.

Kanye won't make any debate stage , even if he was serious about running.

Perot was the only 3rd party candidate to get sufficient support (15% is the Threshold I think).. Not a chance Kanye or anyone else gets to that level starting from now.

notobtuse

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Welcome back...

Just to recap where we left off..

You said



And I replied



So - You have polling data that meets your requirements that shows Biden with a comfortable lead at present , Now what??

Thanks, it's been a while. Didn't see that but thanks for the link. Far too many democrats represented in the poll. And I never said Biden didn't have a somewhat big lead... I said the makeup of the people polled might be suspect.

Quin_Dub

notobtuse wrote: »

Thanks, it's been a while. Didn't see that but thanks for the link. Still don't see in what you linked to the breakdown of people polled as to political party or race and gender. And I never said Biden didn't have a somewhat big lead... I said the makeup of the people polled might be suspect.

Which was calling into question the validity of the data??


The specific info you want is there in the 2 links at the bottom

Polling methodology shown here giving the breakdown by party affiliation and voter registration.

Demographic breakdown shown here

Poll was of only registered voters with a weighting applied to the results to factor in what they felt was the correct weighting for GOP/DEM/IND.

They show both results , with and without the weighting

Quin_Dub

notobtuse wrote: »

Thanks, it's been a while. Didn't see that but thanks for the link. Far too many democrats represented in the poll. And I never said Biden didn't have a somewhat big lead... I said the makeup of the people polled might be suspect.

I'll reply to your updated response here.

On what basis do you feel that Democrats are over represented?

Every data set that I've looked at - The Gallup one in particular as it's the longest running sampling shows that there are simply more registered Democrats than Republicans and the levels are consistent with the weighted values shown in the Rasmussen polling data.

So , do you have another data point showing that Gallup et al are incorrect in their assessment of the Party affiliation mix?

Overheal

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's really difficult to pull a coherent thought out of that...

I think he is getting his knickers in a wad over the word “transform” as though “Make America Great Again” is any less rhetorical.

“Change, transformation, progress” these words terrify the layperson conservative, as a threat to their power.

Muahahaha

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Kanye won't make any debate stage , even if he was serious about running.

Perot was the only 3rd party candidate to get sufficient support (15% is the Threshold I think).. Not a chance Kanye or anyone else gets to that level starting from now.

yeah he wont be getting anywhere near the debates. But that wont stop him going on news networks and banging Trumps drum. Its going to be a tight election and the Trump campaign know that if they can just take a few percentage points off Biden then they have a chance. Bidens best strategy is to ignore him but that could become more difficult as the months go on.

notobtuse

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Which was calling into question the validity of the data??


The specific info you want is there in the 2 links at the bottom

Polling methodology shown here giving the breakdown by party affiliation and voter registration.

Demographic breakdown shown here

Poll was of only registered voters with a weighting applied to the results to factor in what they felt was the correct weighting for GOP/DEM/IND.

They show both results , with and without the weighting

Weighted... Republican 32%, Democrat 37%, other 31%.

I noted earlier…

According to Gallup (and the numbers change weekly) on average it looks like people identify as the following: 30% Republican, 38% Independent, and 30% Democrat.

And where were they from in the poll? It’s the swing states that will decide the election. Also, we seem to be again ignoring, as they did in 2016, the shy and lying voters (those who say they will vote for Clinton - this time Biden, but will actually vote Trump) out of fear of abuse.

Sorry, but I remain suspect of the polls.

Timberrrrrrrr

notobtuse wrote: »

Weighted... Republican 32%, Democrat 37%, other 31%.

I noted earlier…


And where were they from in the poll? It’s the swing states that will decide the election. Also, we seem to be again ignoring, as they did in 2016, the shy and lying voters (those who say they will vote for Clinton - this time Biden, but will actually vote Trump) out of fear of abuse.

Sorry, but I remain suspect of the polls.

Unless they suit your agenda, then you love them.

notobtuse

notobtuse wrote: »

Weighted... Republican 32%, Democrat 37%, other 31%.

I noted earlier…


And where were they from in the poll? It’s the swing states that will decide the election. Also, we seem to be again ignoring, as they did in 2016, the shy and lying voters (those who say they will vote for Clinton - this time Biden, but will actually vote Trump) out of fear of abuse.

Sorry, but I remain suspect of the polls.

All swing states were generally within the margin of error last time round. Currently they're not. That can change but at the moment he's losing support from all demographics.

Quin_Dub

notobtuse wrote: »

Weighted... Republican 32%, Democrat 37%, other 31%.

I noted earlier…

According to Gallup (and the numbers change weekly) on average it looks like people identify as the following: 30% Republican, 38% Independent, and 30% Democrat.

And where were they from in the poll? It’s the swing states that will decide the election. Also, we seem to be again ignoring, as they did in 2016, the shy and lying voters (those who say they will vote for Clinton - this time Biden, but will actually vote Trump) out of fear of abuse.

Sorry, but I remain suspect of the polls.

We've already covered this

If anything they are over estimating the GOP vote..

Also - On the "Shy" voter thing..

How about this poll from Pennsylvania - From a Republican pollster who explicitly adjusts for the shy voter and who were the only pollster to correctly call all the swing states last time out?

Overheal

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Unless they suit your agenda, then you love them.

Incredible he’s never this scrutinizing of the polls if or when they suit the agenda isn’t it?

notobtuse

Quin_Dub wrote: »

We've already covered this

If anything they are over estimating the GOP vote..

Also - On the "Shy" voter thing..

How about this poll from Pennsylvania - From a Republican pollster who explicitly adjusts for the shy voter and who were the only pollster to correctly call all the swing states last time out?

I think we didn’t tackle the other point to your question... what can Trump do to overcome his losses in the polls. That's a really tough one. The biggest obstacle is the mainstream being a propaganda arm of the Establishment and Democrats. They report nothing good the administration has done and concentrate, almost exclusively, on criticism of the president. Hatred of Trump rules the day in the media world. Joe Biden could be hooked up to a ventilator and pronounced brain-dead and the media would still push for people to elect him. That’s a really tough one to overcome. Sadly we can’t force the mainstream media to do their jobs without bias.

Democrat controlled cities across are burning and the mainstream media concentrates its reports on the positive message Trump gives at Mt. Rushmore claiming Trump delivered a divisive culture war message and exploiting social divisions. The media should be ashamed of themselves.

Any ideas?

Will Biden be giving one of his scripted speeches... with no path on how to fulfill his flowery messages, this week from his basement bunker?

Overheal

notobtuse wrote: »

I think we didn’t tackle the other point to your question... what can Trump do to overcome his losses in the polls. That's a really tough one. The biggest obstacle is the mainstream being a propaganda arm of the Establishment and Democrats. They report nothing good the administration has done and concentrate, almost exclusively, on criticism of the president. Hatred of Trump rules the day in the media world. Joe Biden could be hooked up to a ventilator and pronounced brain-dead and the media would still push for people to elect him. That’s a really tough one to overcome. Sadly we can’t force the mainstream media to do their jobs without bias.

Democrat controlled cities across are burning and the mainstream media concentrates its reports on the positive message Trump gives at Mt. Rushmore claiming Trump delivered a divisive culture war message and exploiting social divisions. The media should be ashamed of themselves.

Any ideas?

Will Biden be giving one of his scripted speeches... with no path on how to fulfill his flowery messages, this week from his basement bunker?

That’s because even brain-dead on a ventilator he’d still be a better president, that’s just fact. Trump should be removed from office right now, and only isn’t so, because Mitch and the Republicans went “Biden Rule” on Impeachment, literally staring they were punting the decision to voters this November. Well now the bill is coming due.

rossie1977

Bunker you say..

Overheal

Bunker Derangement Syndrome at this stage.

Timberrrrrrrr

notobtuse wrote: »

I think we didn’t tackle the other point to your question... what can Trump do to overcome his losses in the polls. That's a really tough one. The biggest obstacle is the mainstream being a propaganda arm of the Establishment and Democrats. They report nothing good the administration has done and concentrate, almost exclusively, on criticism of the president. Hatred of Trump rules the day in the media world. Joe Biden could be hooked up to a ventilator and pronounced brain-dead and the media would still push for people to elect him. That’s a really tough one to overcome. Sadly we can’t force the mainstream media to do their jobs without bias.

Democrat controlled cities across are burning and the mainstream media concentrates its reports on the positive message Trump gives at Mt. Rushmore claiming Trump delivered a divisive culture war message and exploiting social divisions. The media should be ashamed of themselves.

Any ideas?

Will Biden be giving one of his scripted speeches... with no path on how to fulfill his flowery messages, this week from his basement bunker?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8m8a_vvOr4

And LMAO at this excuse

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/06/donald-trump-denies-hiding-bunker-during-protests/amp

that he was hiding in a bunker while parts of Washington, D.C., burned around him over the weekend, Donald Trump reemerged publicly on Monday to speak in the Rose Garden 

the president acknowledged that, yes, he did briefly go subterranean, but only to inspect the secure quarters. “Well, it was a false report,” he told Fox’s Brian Kilmeade. “I went down during the day, and I was there for a tiny little short period of time, and it was much more for an inspection. 

The president went on to say that he’d “gone down two or three times, all for inspection,” because “someday you may need it,”

Quin_Dub

notobtuse wrote: »

I think we didn’t tackle the other point to your question... what can Trump do to overcome his losses in the polls. That's a really tough one. The biggest obstacle is the mainstream being a propaganda arm of the Establishment and Democrats. They report nothing good the administration has done and concentrate, almost exclusively, on criticism of the president. Hatred of Trump rules the day in the media world. Joe Biden could be hooked up to a ventilator and pronounced brain-dead and the media would still push for people to elect him. That’s a really tough one to overcome. Sadly we can’t force the mainstream media to do their jobs without bias.

Democrat controlled cities across are burning and the mainstream media concentrates its reports on the positive message Trump gives at Mt. Rushmore claiming Trump delivered a divisive culture war message and exploiting social divisions. The media should be ashamed of themselves.

Any ideas?

Will Biden be giving one of his scripted speeches... with no path on how to fulfill his flowery messages, this week from his basement bunker?

Given that you've blown past the polling data , can I assume that we've moved on from "biased polling" and "skewed data" and just moved on to the factual discussion on "How can Trump recover"?

Trumps biggest obstacle is not the Media , it's his own mouth and his crippling inability to admit a mistake.

The Media do not have to spin the speeches at Mt. Rushmore or in DC - A simple verbatim reproduction of them clearly elucidates Trumps viewpoint - That (currently) 50% of the US population are his enemies who hate the country and who's sole aim is to destroy it - How on EARTH do either of those speeches win him more support??? Allied to his continued rhetoric on Twitter which again simply require verbatim reproduction to show clearly their meaning.

He is making absolutely ZERO effort to change peoples minds , not one iota , he is simply hoping that if he gets his base utterly febrile with fear and anger that they might just be enough for him - They will not however.

In terms on the impact of his inability to admit a mistake?

Every Dog in the street knows that he f***ed up in his response to Covid19, but his brain simply will not allow him to process that fact.

He should have shown leadership around simple things like social distancing and mask wearing , but he took a huge bet back in the March time-frame that things would ease off and settle into a level of stasis during the summer months. He has lost that bet as have those whose lives he used as collateral.

Current projections are for the US to hit ~180k deaths by October the 1st , and additional 50,000 people dying - 50% of whom might live if Social Distancing and Mask wearing were consistently applied.

But Trump won't lead from the front , he won't issue a Federal mandate or in fact do anything meaningful because that would make him look "weak" in his eyes because it would involve admitting that he was wrong previously.

Chris_Heilong

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Given that you've blown past the polling data , can I assume that we've moved on from "biased polling" and "skewed data" and just moved on to the factual discussion on "How can Trump recover"?

Trumps biggest obstacle is not the Media , it's his own mouth and his crippling inability to admit a mistake.

The Media do not have to spin the speeches at Mt. Rushmore or in DC - A simple verbatim reproduction of them clearly elucidates Trumps viewpoint - That (currently) 50% of the US population are his enemies who hate the country and who's sole aim is to destroy it - How on EARTH do either of those speeches win him more support??? Allied to his continued rhetoric on Twitter which again simply require verbatim reproduction to show clearly their meaning.

He is making absolutely ZERO effort to change peoples minds , not one iota , he is simply hoping that if he gets his base utterly febrile with fear and anger that they might just be enough for him - They will not however.

In terms on the impact of his inability to admit a mistake?

Every Dog in the street knows that he f***ed up in his response to Covid19, but his brain simply will not allow him to process that fact.

He should have shown leadership around simple things like social distancing and mask wearing , but he took a huge bet back in the March time-frame that things would ease off and settle into a level of stasis during the summer months. He has lost that bet as have those whose lives he used as collateral.

Current projections are for the US to hit ~180k deaths by October the 1st , and additional 50,000 people dying - 50% of whom might live if Social Distancing and Mask wearing were consistently applied.

But Trump won't lead from the front , he won't issue a Federal mandate or in fact do anything meaningful because that would make him look "weak" in his eyes because it would involve admitting that he was wrong previously.

So you admit that the media are lying about what he said at rushmore but you feel he is his own worst enemy regardless of the media?

What he said about the far left was spot on and we even see the same attitude here on boards with people supporting violence and acts of vandalism.

Chris_Heilong

Chris_Heilong wrote: »

So you admit that the media are lying about what he said at rushmore but you feel he is his own worst enemy regardless of the media?

What he said about the far left was spot on and we even see the same attitude here on boards with people supporting violence and acts of vandalism.

Erm, no he didn't admit the media was lying.

rossie1977

What far left.

There is no far left in the US. There is barely a left.

Why don't you take issue with massive rise in far right though. Every single terrorism related death in the US last year was far right.

Muahahaha

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Current projections are for the US to hit ~180k deaths by October the 1st , and additional 50,000 people dying - 50% of whom might live if Social Distancing and Mask wearing were consistently applied.

An additional 50,000 dying between no and October is really unbelivable, especially when put up against Trumps response to the virus.

To put that 50,000 figure into perspective in 2001 3,000 Americans lost their lives in the World Trade Centre attacks. The response was to launch a 20 year war which to date has cost them $800 billion and it still isnt over.

Quin_Dub

Chris_Heilong wrote: »

So you admit that the media are lying about what he said at rushmore but you feel he is his own worst enemy regardless of the media?

What he said about the far left was spot on and we even see the same attitude here on boards with people supporting violence and acts of vandalism.

No..Not what I said in any way shape or form.

I watched a full recording of both of his speeches verbatim and was appalled by them.

The Media are not his problem - His own words and deeds are.

Simple verbatim reproduction of the things he says out loud or tweets about are plenty enough for there to be no ambiguity about his position on things.

He is clearly of the view that a vote for Democrats is a vote for the destruction of the US as he believes it to be and that anyone voting for a Democrat hates America.

That's not putting words in his mouth or "mis-interpreting"

I didn't watch the whole video you linked because their 1st "spin" about the media happened almost immediately. One guy said "An Article from the Brookings institute wrote that Trump said Confederates were Heroes - He Absolutely Did not say that , that's just a lie" and his side-kick agrees with him.

Here is the Brookings Article they are talking about.

The quote from Trump was this

Our nation is witnessing a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values, and indoctrinate our children.

In the context of the current conversation - What "Heroes" are being defamed and what "history" is being wiped out??

The Answer - Confederate leaders are having their Statues removed or torn down and are being "defamed" I guess..

To suggest that Trump was not labeling the Confederate leaders as Heroes just because he didn't explicitly form the sentence "Confederate Generals are Heroes" is utterly ridiculous.

If he doesn't think they are heroes and he was only talking about Washington or Jefferson for example , then let him say that.

By saying what he said how he said it , the ONLY reasonable conclusion anyone can have is that he meant that ALL those people having statues torn down are heroes.


But the ambiguity is by design - It allows him (and people like those in the video) to get on their high horse about the media misinterpreting him whilst still dog whistling at top volume to those in his base who agree 100% that those Confederate leaders are indeed heroes.

rossie1977

The fact that confederate statues and monuments litter the US is beyond hilarious.

The confederates were the enemy of the US. Would be akin to thousands of nazis monuments around the UK and people complaining when they were taken down..

I ain't watching that video, but what narrative? Civil war was due to one thing and one thing only, slavery. Numerous states clearly outlined in writing the main reason for leaving Union was slavery reform.

jackboy

Quin_Dub wrote: »

In the context of the current conversation - What "Heroes" are being defamed and what "history" is being wiped out??

The Answer - Confederate leaders are having their Statues removed or torn down and are being "defamed" I guess..

To suggest that Trump was not labeling the Confederate leaders as Heroes just because he didn't explicitly form the sentence "Confederate Generals are Heroes" is utterly ridiculous..

It is just as valid to consider some confederate generals ‘heroes’ as considering some union generals heroes.

The civil war was not a war caused and fought solely over slavery. There were a lot of different leaders on both sides fighting for different reasons. Seeing it as a straight fight of good against evil is very simplistic. Some confederate military leaders did achieve some incredible things during some battles. It is not surprising or wrong that a lot of people would consider some of these leaders heroes.

Overheal

jackboy wrote: »

It is just as valid to consider some confederate generals ‘heroes’ as considering some union generals heroes.

The civil war was not a war caused and fought solely over slavery. There were a lot of different leaders on both sides fighting for different reasons. Seeing it as a straight fight of good against evil is very simplistic. Some confederate military leaders did achieve some incredible things during some battles. It is not surprising or wrong that a lot of people would consider some of these leaders heroes.

No no of course not it was about “states rights” ... to own slaves.

Chris_Heilong

I am not even a fan of Trump but the amount of inaccuracies in the thread are startling you would think you were on the echo chamber that is Twitter, If you want to criticize someone at least be accurate, if they are as bad as you think then no one needs to lie about them or misrepresent what they say by injecting accusations of dog whistling or whatever.

Quin_Dub

jackboy wrote: »

It is just as valid to consider some confederate generals ‘heroes’ as considering some union generals heroes.

The civil war was not a war caused and fought solely over slavery. There were a lot of different leaders on both sides fighting for different reasons. Seeing it as a straight fight of good against evil is very simplistic. Some confederate military leaders did achieve some incredible things during some battles. It is not surprising or wrong that a lot of people would consider some of these leaders heroes.

And therein lies the problem.

The Confederates were Traitors , plain and simple. They meet the textbook and legal definition of the term absolutely perfectly.

And yes , it WAS fought solely about Slavery - There have been attempts to muddy the waters on this with revisionist history , but it was only ever about the ability to OWN slaves.

By all means discuss them in detail in History books , or in the correct context in a Museum or something . You can even give them credit for their Military prowess.

Just as people can obectively review someone like Von Runstedt in Germany or Tojo in Japan and recognise that they were pretty good Military leaders with some big wins. It doesn't mean however that you build statues and have bloody parades for them!!!

Having a big Statue in the middle of a town to Traitorous Racists is not in anyway shape or form defensible.