Is this the end of Democrat front runner Joe Biden?

Timberrrrrrrr

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

is it normal for people to dictate medical reports to a doctor?

Imagine going to your doctor

Me: "Doc, my job needs a medical report from.you"

Doc: "OK, Jump.up.on that table and I'll examine you"

Me: "Nah, just write this down" (I start to tell doctor what to write).

Doc: GTFO

Quin_Dub

Easton Melted Mineralogist wrote: »

Ah shure everythings just a old ‘gaffe‘.
Am sure there'll be plenty more from both sides regardless.

Found an excellent market for Joe, but isn't available as the (much prefered) acca builder:

Joe Biden not to be Democratic Nominee (presume this is for election day, but not stated and will need to verify): 7/1.



Slightly short, but with 5mths to go, ideally this will become available and increase as a line multipler option closer to the day.
The only bigger question still remains, is who'll replace the stand in.

As you are clearly a betting man , what do you reckon to the collapse in Trumps odds as shown here

There's currently a 22.8% spread in Bidens favour.

Silentcorner

US economy just added nearly 5 million jobs in June.

Gun sales has rocketed over the last 4 months, people who never owned guns before now own guns.

BLM riots have done hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage not to mention the pulling down of statues nationwide.

Certain cities that have significant crime issues are defunding or significantly reducing police budgets.

The Mayor of Seattle has just been exposed as the complete incompetent charlatan that she is in the glare of national media.

You'll forgive me for not believing a single poll/news organisation/betting odds.

I think the US Democratic Party is headed for the same fate the UK Labour Party have just subjected themselves to...

Quin_Dub

Silentcorner wrote: »

US economy just added nearly 5 million jobs in June.

Gun sales has rocketed over the last 4 months, people who never owned guns before now own guns.

BLM riots have done hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage not to mention the pulling down of statues nationwide.

Certain cities that have significant crime issues are defunding or significantly reducing police budgets.

The Mayor of Seattle has just been exposed as the complete incompetent charlatan that she is in the glare of national media.

You'll forgive me for not believing a single poll/news organisation/betting odds.

I think the US Democratic Party is headed for the same fate the UK Labour Party have just subjected themselves to...

Why then have all of their poll numbers across ALL of the polls not just one or two ,improved over the last 3 or 4 months?

Trumps personal approval rating has dropped an average of 12 points since March.

We'll see what benefit the June jobs report brings to Trump , but the solid May report didn't help him a whole lot last month.

You could of course be right , but there is scant evidence of it yet.

Silentcorner

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Why then have all of their poll numbers across ALL of the polls not just one or two ,improved over the last 3 or 4 months?

Trumps personal approval rating has dropped an average of 12 points since March.

We'll see what benefit the June jobs report brings to Trump , but the solid May report didn't help him a whole lot last month.

You could of course be right , but there is scant evidence of it yet.

I clearly remember being in shock at the election of Trump, I was in shock because the media I was consuming was conditioning me for his defeat..same for Brexit, same for the last UK election.

I believe that the black vote in the US has splintered to what degree is anyone's guess but it hasn't solidified in favour of the Democrats and I also believe that with what should be a much healthier economy moderates will not vote Blue on account of what we have witnessed across the states over the last 3 months, these are people who's opinions are not being heard in media or social media.

You won't see evidence until election day, the media establishment, the corporate and political establishment will throw everything at Trump over the next 5 months in what will be one of the ugliest Presidential elections of all time.

That is what I suspect anyway.

duploelabs

Silentcorner wrote: »

I clearly remember being in shock at the election of Trump, I was in shock because the media I was consuming was conditioning me for his defeat..same for Brexit, same for the last UK election.

I believe that the black vote in the US has splintered to what degree is anyone's guess but it hasn't solidified in favour of the Democrats and I also believe that with what should be a much healthier economy moderates will not vote Blue on account of what we have witnessed across the states over the last 3 months, these are people who's opinions are not being heard in media or social media.

You won't see evidence until election day, the media establishment, the corporate and political establishment will throw everything at Trump over the next 5 months in what will be one of the ugliest Presidential elections of all time.

That is what I suspect anyway.

92% of black voters support Biden, that doesn't sound very splintered to me

Silentcorner

duploelabs wrote: »

92% of black voters support Biden, that doesn't sound very splintered to me

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

duploelabs

Silentcorner wrote: »

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

No more so than the ones you spouted above

Silentcorner

duploelabs wrote: »

No more so than the ones you spouted above

It's just my opinion you mightn't like it but that is all it is....

Quin_Dub

Silentcorner wrote: »

I clearly remember being in shock at the election of Trump, I was in shock because the media I was consuming was conditioning me for his defeat..same for Brexit, same for the last UK election.

I believe that the black vote in the US has splintered to what degree is anyone's guess but it hasn't solidified in favour of the Democrats and I also believe that with what should be a much healthier economy moderates will not vote Blue on account of what we have witnessed across the states over the last 3 months, these are people who's opinions are not being heard in media or social media.

You won't see evidence until election day, the media establishment, the corporate and political establishment will throw everything at Trump over the next 5 months in what will be one of the ugliest Presidential elections of all time.

That is what I suspect anyway.

There's no evidence to suggest that the black vote has splintered - They support the Democrats at about the 85/90% level.

In none of the other examples you list was the lead outside the Margin of error.

Brexit was a dead heat in the polls , Clinton had a ~2% lead overall which was where the National vote ended up and was behind or had razor thin leads in the key swing states , the Trump win was unexpected but the evidence showed it was possible. The last UK election showed the Tories in a clear lead for quite a while so not sure of the source of surprise there.

In this cycle , Biden's lead today is significantly larger than any Clinton ever had in 2016 (at this point in 2016 she was running at about 4/5% ahead) and he currently has leads well outside the margin of error both Nationally and in almost all the key swings states.

It's still 4+ months to go , so everything could change - but right now , Trump is losing and losing badly.

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

Very much so, it's pretty consistent with how black voters tend to vote in presidential elections. And Trump makes them even less likely to vote for the GOP.

Silentcorner

Quin_Dub wrote: »

There's no evidence to suggest that the black vote has splintered - They support the Democrats at about the 85/90% level.

In none of the other examples you list was the lead outside the Margin of error.

Brexit was a dead heat in the polls , Clinton had a ~2% lead overall which was where the National vote ended up and was behind or had razor thin leads in the key swing states , the Trump win was unexpected but the evidence showed it was possible. The last UK election showed the Tories in a clear lead for quite a while so not sure of the source of surprise there.

In this cycle , Biden's lead today is significantly larger than any Clinton ever had in 2016 (at this point in 2016 she was running at about 4/5% ahead) and he currently has leads well outside the margin of error both Nationally and in almost all the key swings states.

It's still 4+ months to go , so everything could change - but right now , Trump is losing and losing badly.

You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

Quin_Dub

Silentcorner wrote: »

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

Deleted User wrote: »

Very much so, it's pretty consistent with how black voters tend to vote in presidential elections. And Trump makes them even less likely to vote for the GOP.

The key measure for Black voters is participation , not voter preference. As a rule they just don't vote GOP in any great numbers , typically low double digits - 10-15% at most.

If they aren't happy with the Democrats , they just don't turn up , they do not vote GOP instead.

Clinton got 80-85% of the black vote , Trump got about 11% if I recall , but the volume of the black vote was well down compared to the Obama years.

So a key thing for Biden is getting the vote out , not winning them over per se.

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

Very much so, it's pretty consistent with how black voters tend to vote in presidential elections. And Trump makes them even less likely to vote for the GOP.

Or so you've been led to believe...if they reach the same employment numbers and wage levels they did last February by November I just can't see it....

KiKi III

Silentcorner wrote: »

You see, that is my point, is that figure believable...

96% of black women voted for Hilary. A similar number voted for Doug Jones to oust Roy Moore from office. There’s no evidence the black vote has splintered. The number is slightly lower but still high for black men.

Traditionally, the problem was that while the black community vote Democrat, they don’t always turn out. This year, Stacey Abrahms, Pod Save America, and other Democratic activists have been doing a lot of groundwork on getting voters registered.

In 2016, the Democratic primary went on much longer and was much more divisive, Hilary was a far less popular candidate than Biden, and so far there has been no big reveal like Comey’s unprecedented intervention which wiped out an 11 point lead Hilary had before the election.

Not only this, Trump is failing on all fronts; Covid, race relations, and now a very serious allegation of failing to protect troops in Afghanistan.

He may still win, but it’s looking less and less likely by the day.

ohnonotgmail

Silentcorner wrote: »

You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

true that you could be right and everybody else wrong. the difference is that everybody else is basing their opinion on the available information. you are basing yours on ...

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

Or so you've been led to believe...if they reach the same employment numbers and wage levels they did last February by November I just can't see it....

It's based on how the black vote has always gone so not a matter of belief. It stands to reason that Trump will lose votes from black community as much as he is from every demographic. Depending on the numbers from February is a bit meaningless since the pandemic is entirely out of control and likely will continue to be for foreseeable.

Quin_Dub

Silentcorner wrote: »

You could be right, I could be wrong, I am paying no attention to media outlets this time round, I was misinformed last time.

Me either, I'm looking at the data.

If Trump can get the gap back to around the 4/5% range and tighten up in the swing states with the Electoral College system he has a shot at winning.

But if it stays out beyond the 6-8% range (it's nearly double that now) I do not believe he can win.

Silentcorner

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

true that you could be right and everybody else wrong. the difference is that everybody else is basing their opinion on the available information. you are basing yours on ...

Everyone else who is posting in this thread by the way...which has no moderate opinion of Trump that I can see...I have outlined why I believe that the Democratic Party are headed for the same fate as the UK Labour Party.

It is not an off the wall suggestion when you see what has happened in major cities across the US over the last 6 weeks in particular...

KiKi III

Silentcorner wrote: »

Everyone else who is posting in this thread by the way...which has no moderate opinion of Trump that I can see...I have outlined why I believe that the Democratic Party are headed for the same fate as the UK Labour Party.

It is not an off the wall suggestion when you see what has happened in major cities across the US over the last 6 weeks in particular...

Why do you think your opinion isn’t being reflected in the polls, even ones by the likes of Fox?

Quin_Dub

Silentcorner wrote: »

Everyone else who is posting in this thread by the way...which has no moderate opinion of Trump that I can see...I have outlined why I believe that the Democratic Party are headed for the same fate as the UK Labour Party.

It is not an off the wall suggestion when you see what has happened in major cities across the US over the last 6 weeks in particular...

It's not "off the wall" , it absolutely could have a negative impact on the Democrat vote , but there's no evidence in any of the data to show that yet.

If people are angry at the Democrats for recent events , they aren't telling anyone. I know Trump loves to talk about "The Silent Majority" but it simply doesn't exist.

His 2016 win was razor thin but his performance was absolutely in line with the data. The fact that those key swing states were super tight was not in anyway unexpected or surprising.

What was unexpected was that all of those tight races fell his way giving him the narrowest of victories.

This time however, as of now - There are no tight races , Biden has statistically significant leads in more than enough states to win the Electoral college by a fairly comfortable margin.

Trump has time to change that , but he needs to start doing it now if he hopes to be in the fight on Election night.

Silentcorner

KiKi III wrote: »

Why do you think your opinion isn’t being reflected in the polls, even ones by the likes of Fox?

Because when it comes to this election all bets are off...the pandemic will have had a profound effect on people, the nationwide riots and protests will have also affected people...if you were a moderate democrat voter living in Seattle/Chicago/New York/LA etc who has bought a gun in the last 3 months for himself and his wife because he no longer trusts his Democrat Mayor to protect him and his family do you think he will vote Democrat again?

You could lose your job if you signal support for Trump in this climate.

So, the sands have completely shifted and in that case, the polls and politicians will be last to pick up on it...the media companies are so far removed from reality they are almost irrelevant.

Silentcorner

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's not "off the wall" , it absolutely could have a negative impact on the Democrat vote , but there's no evidence in any of the data to show that yet.

If people are angry at the Democrats for recent events , they aren't telling anyone. I know Trump loves to talk about "The Silent Majority" but it simply doesn't exist.

His 2016 win was razor thin but his performance was absolutely in line with the data. The fact that those key swing states were super tight was not in anyway unexpected or surprising.

What was unexpected was that all of those tight races fell his way giving him the narrowest of victories.

This time however, as of now - There are no tight races , Biden has statistically significant leads in more than enough states to win the Electoral college by a fairly comfortable margin.

Trump has time to change that , but he needs to start doing it now if he hopes to be in the fight on Election night.

But that is just it, they are silent, they have existed in the past in the US...in the very recent past in the UK...if there was ever going to be such a thing as a silent majority, this election is it.

KiKi III

Silentcorner wrote: »

Because when it comes to this election all bets are off...the pandemic will have had a profound effect on people, the nationwide riots and protests will have also affected people...if you were a moderate democrat voter living in Seattle/Chicago/New York/LA etc who has bought a gun in the last 3 months for himself and his wife because he no longer trusts his Democrat Mayor to protect him and his family do you think he will vote Democrat again?

I think you’re massively overplaying the impact of the protests compared with COVID. About 25 people died across America during the riots and it’s already old news; 130,000 have died of COVID and that number is only going to increase between now and November. This now includes thousands of people aged 35-65. Each of those 130,000 had family and friends.

If I was a moderate Democrat I’d absolutely vote for Biden over Trump.

Tell me how

Silentcorner wrote: »

But that is just it, they are silent, they have existed in the past in the US...in the very recent past in the UK...if there was ever going to be such a thing as a silent majority, this election is it.

Why, there has been rarely been as active political conversations in the lead up to elections as a consequence of both Trumps performance over the 4 years, but also the Covid-19 pandemic and the BLM protests.

CNN, FOX, MSNBC have all had record viewer numbers over the last 1/4, the US populace hasn't been as engaged in the conversation probably since post 911.

So why should this lead to a silent majority, in this instance, at this time, if they are/were the majority, why wouldn't they make their views public?

Silentcorner

KiKi III wrote: »

I think you’re massively overplaying the impact of the protests compared with COVID. About 25 people died across America during the riots and it’s already old news; 130,000 have died of COVID and that number is only going to increase between now and November. This now includes thousands of people aged 35-65. Each of those 130,000 had family and friends.

If I was a moderate Democrat I’d absolutely vote for Biden over Trump.

I think you are massively underplaying it....do not underestimate the level of genuine fear it must have taken to drive people (many of whom would have never have dreamed of owning a gun previously) out to buy a gun...I'd imagine riffle ranges are packed with men and women who are no longer feeling secure....and with good reason.

Imagine how you would feel if you felt the need to carry a gun for the first time in your life.

The news cycle is irrelevant....it is completely irrelevant, the same news cycle that told everyone to stay home to the point of shaming them...except for the nationwide BLM protests/riots...which they more or less cheered on...they are losing viewers.

KiKi III

Silentcorner wrote: »

I think you are massively underplaying it....do not underestimate the level of genuine fear it must have taken to drive people (many of whom would have never have dreamed of owning a gun previously) out to buy a gun...I'd imagine riffle ranges are packed with men and women who are no longer feeling secure....and with good reason.

Imagine how you would feel if you felt the need to carry a gun for the first time in your life.

The news cycle is irrelevant....it is completely irrelevant, the same news cycle that told everyone to stay home to the point of shaming them...except for the nationwide BLM protests/riots...which they more or less cheered on...they are losing viewers.

Do you have any data to back up these stories you’re conjuring up? How do you know middle aged women who previously voted Democrat are the ones buying guns? Seems more likely Republican 2nd amendment fanatics were the ones out on a spree.

Tell me how

Silentcorner wrote: »

The news cycle is irrelevant....it is completely irrelevant, the same news cycle that told everyone to stay home to the point of shaming them...except for the nationwide BLM protests/riots...which they more or less cheered on...they are losing viewers.

That is Fake News.

All three major cable news networks set ratings records in the second quarter of 2020, as ongoing stories including the coronavirus pandemic and racial justice protests drove viewers to Fox News, CNN and MSNBC.

The three channels recorded double-digit gains over the same period in 2019 in total viewers and adults 25-54. All three also delivered their biggest viewer tallies ever in both total-day averages and in primetime.

Podge_irl

In every gun-buying splurge in the past, the vast majority of the guns have been bought by people who are already gun owners. Record gun sales in and of themselves mean absolutely nothing.

Trump's previous election was surprising, but given a state-by-state breakdown such as the one done by 538 had him at about 30% odds it was far from shocking. Events with 30% odds happen pretty frequently after all.

Silentcorner

KiKi III wrote: »

Do you have any data to back up these stories you’re conjuring up? How do you know middle aged women who previously voted Democrat are the ones buying guns? Seems more likely Republican 2nd amendment fanatics were the ones out on a spree.

Ok...stay in your NYT bubble they'll keep you informed I've no doubt!

https://news.sky.com/story/uncertainty-and-fear-fuel-record-surge-in-us-gun-ownership-applications-12019315