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16-01-2013, 22:49   #4711
Sibehusk
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Originally Posted by Bishop_Donal View Post
You know you've reached your wits end when you're shouting 'You Fcuking Liar' at Gerry Murphy at 9:31 p.m. on a Weds night. The wife even had to come in to tell me to calm down.

I'm going to have to go for therapy soon.

He didn't even say Sleet.He had it on the summary chart for Sunday, and he wouldn't even say the word.
Pmsl. I was the same.
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16-01-2013, 22:52   #4712
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Originally Posted by icesnowfrost View Post
So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?
It's Wednesday. There's no need for them to talk about the weekend forecast on TV yet. It's a marginal situation with changes on the models every 12 hours.
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16-01-2013, 23:02   #4713
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Originally Posted by icesnowfrost View Post
So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?
Met office dont see us getting anything either but all of uk on friday to get it disaster ..... bbc link too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i08De...e_gdata_player ??????
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16-01-2013, 23:05   #4714
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Ensemble mean for t78. Nice.
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16-01-2013, 23:12   #4715
 
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ME have been spot on all week. As the usual rampers have been on here chasing their tails, ME have been generating accurate forecasts. Forecasts that have not been what people wanted to hear but their job is not to please a pack of snowbunnies on a discussion board but to say it as it is. There is time enough to mention snow tomorrow if and when the chances grow to more than the current remote.

People need to grow up a little. Many are dillusional to think that they know more than a national weather service and that members of this service may change their forecasts based on what is posted by some on here. ECMWF members also have access to 06 and 18Z ECMWF model runs at 1-hr steps out to 90 hours. They have a plethora of extra parameters in all the models, many more than are available to us, plus experience, so I think they know what they're doing.
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16-01-2013, 23:16   #4716
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Going by the present models (except GFS) I would not rule out a wintry weekend with snow.
Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.
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16-01-2013, 23:17   #4717
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Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?
What time is the next run out?
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16-01-2013, 23:19   #4718
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Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?
When it happens.
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16-01-2013, 23:19   #4719
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100% certainty of the outcome on Monday.

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Originally Posted by davidsr20 View Post
Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?
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16-01-2013, 23:22   #4720
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This is the thing, met eireann have been wrong time and again. They have changed their forecasts consistently, I could show you quote from few days ago saying snow accumulations in the east and north easy for Tuesday night and today. They just change their mind day before. Their forecast beyond a day or two have been consistently off.

In fairness, weather models have been so erratic but changing forecast every day doesn't exactly count as correct forecasting!!
Forecasting by its nature will always be inaccuarte to some degree. Since someone got carried away with forecasting snow 1 week in advance they've been fairly spot on in fairness. Definitely the best forecast your gonna get for this island.
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16-01-2013, 23:25   #4721
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Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.
Which GFS
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16-01-2013, 23:31   #4722
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http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.p...-and-18z-runs/

Evidence suggest no noticeable accuracy difference between 00z/12z and 06z/18z. Also the notion that the 06z//18z has less data input it more myth than fact. 3rd post in that thread.

Cheers Beasterly, so both ECM runs are more accuarte than all GFS runs No shock there.
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16-01-2013, 23:33   #4723
 
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Maybe a bigger concern for Friday is the potential for some flooding? looks like a fair bit of rain could fall over what is a basically a very saturated country at this point. This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.
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16-01-2013, 23:33   #4724
 
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At least the GFS developed the low this time it was nowhere to be seen on the 12z, To me thats a step in the right direction. I wasnt expecting any sort of a backtrack from the GFS till morning so happy enough.

Morning should be fun
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16-01-2013, 23:35   #4725
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This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.
Tell me about it, de wife hasn't stopped goin on about it all week!!!
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