LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

tylercollins wrote: »

Entire UK apart from Northern Ireland under snow warning... Northern Ireland under rain

icesnowfrost wrote: »

This is going to sound so sillyl but wat exactly is sleet. Is it tiny bits of fine snow or is it wet snow ?

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Bit of a ramp from MT over on Netweather.

Wow, we are seeing some fairly significant cold even without the full synoptics in place, if my idea about February being core of the cold signal is still valid, we may be entering into a 6-7 week period of intense cold with possibly just one brief reversal before deeper cold sets in. That brief reversal seems most likely to happen near end of January. Looking at the current synoptics, strong high pressure north of eastern Siberia could be nudged westward by effects of rising heights over western North America. There has been a deep (930s to 940s) low nibbling away at the base of this Siberian-arctic high for several days now, and in my research, a stronger retrograde signal develops in February.

There is tremendous potential in the current situation for an epic cold (and therefore probably snowy as well) period lasting from this spell to first week or ten days of March. If we start to see any signs in 10-15 day output of building high pressure in northwest Russia or Finland then I would say look out for record cold to move west. Looking at the way these rather weak synoptics have maxed out for snow and cold, can you imagine if we get -10 uppers moving across the North Sea later this winter?

GFS of course seems to be lukewarm to idea of further cold this month and that could prove true, it matches my research output closer than the current ECM or GEM, but at this point for me it's all about February's potential and how that actually plays out. I am of curious now to see whether this is a case of cold coming early or just a huge signal starting to appear. If it's the latter then even 1947 could find itself with a rival, certainly 1895 and 1855 may have to move over a space.

The strong Atlantic low appears on all of the GFS 18z ensembles including the control run so the GFS has good support from them none of the ens members want to bring it South like what the other models show. ECM though has great support from it's control run and ens members by having the low dig South. Confusing stuff indeed but soon enough one will be wrong and one will be right.

High res NAM model backs the ECM, UKMO etc and not the GFS.

maquiladora wrote: »

Very good post on NW by weathermaster :



A titantic battle. GFS Vs. The World. Could it be right?!

Musicman2000 wrote: »

GFS of course seems to be lukewarm to idea of further cold this month and that could prove true, it matches my research output closer than the current ECM or GEM, but at this point for me it's all about February's potential and how that actually plays out. I am of curious now to see whether this is a case of cold coming early or just a huge signal starting to appear. If it's the latter then even 1947 could find itself with a rival, certainly 1895 and 1855 may have to move over a space. [/B]