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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,322 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Actually I was probably too quick to jump conclusions. If the ECM came off we would also be pulling a lot of surface cold off the one big snow field that will be the UK!

    Not to mind the dewpoints over Western UK.
    As low as -10 going by the gfs


  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭✭ zidewayz


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Yeah, snow at or above 500 metres today.

    See: http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=3216.915
    Kippure wrote: »
    Thanks for the pictures guys.

    Theres abig differance between Canadian snow and irish snow. It means more to get irish snow. Here in alberta we,ve snow from october to May and it gets after awhile a pain in the arse. If it was irish snow i wouldnt mind one bit.:)

    I plan on heading upto the mast on Kippure tom with the dog so will hopefully post a few more snow pics on my return.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    Also, I wouldn't be too considered about exact uppers on the ECM 120, 144 hours out etc. when we are unsure about them even 48 hours out at the moment. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 Kippure


    zidewayz wrote: »
    I plan on heading upto the mast on Kippure tom with the dog so will hopefully post a few more snow pics on my return.

    Make sure you dress for the weather. During winter its a differant ball game when you go walking so high up.:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,875 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Battle of the air masses and battle of the models at the same time. A forecasting nightmare.

    However it is a 3-1 advantage for the colder solution among the four models that I consider most reliable (most reliable recently in this order, ECM, GEM, UK, GFS). Only the GFS fails to develop a strong low on a southeast heading track Sunday-Monday. A blend of the other three would bring snow potential to most of the southern half of the country Sunday night into Monday morning.

    That might turn out to be elevation based but certainly the potential is there for 20-30 cm falls on slopes above 150m in the southeast where orographic uplift will help boost totals. About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford. Some parts of eastern Northern Ireland could be added in due to local streamers outside the storm precip shield but most of the guidance keeps Connacht and west Ulster dry. There again they could see a bit of snow during the period as winds back from ESE to NE.

    If the odd man out GFS is right, nothing much will happen and Ireland will stay in 3-5 C or milder with light rain and just a slight potential for snow on hills.

    Also most of the model consensus shows a deepening of cold by Wed-Thurs of next week with good potential for east coast snow streamers developing. The key to the solution I feel is the intensity of cold at present over Britain, this is setting up to enter the circulation whenever the pressure gradient backs around enough to pull the colder air across the Irish Sea. The Friday early morning frontal system fails to change the balance but then it dies out over western Britain and possibly this would begin to edge back west as a back door cold front that would slowly wrap around the approaching Atlantic low.

    Nothing too clarified yet but potential is there for snow on Sunday-Monday, heaviest falls would be around 150-300m elevations on east slopes of Wicklow and Dublin Mtns so southern higher suburbs of Dublin could see perhaps 10-15 cm while it could be a sleety mix at sea level there. In a circulation like this projected low you would only need about -5 C at 850 mbs and 528 dm thickness to get snow.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭ Dead_Rabbits


    Battleground Ireland

    fax72s.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,166 ✭✭✭✭ drunkmonkey


    The iPhone weather backs you up Dead Rabbits. Sunday/Monday Snow everywhere.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 Trotter


    Sunglasses and shorts again for Waterford.. the only place in the world where the weather doesnt change from grey clouds and 10-15 degrees! :mad:


  • Registered Users Posts: 159 ✭✭ fontenoy7


    zidewayz wrote: »
    The Pics I posted a few pages back were taken around 14.30. Snow was well sticking at that stage. Snow level was 480m asl.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056799298&page=298

    Can you imagine the Irish press publishing anything ' Irish' with respect to snow when they can concentrate on a little bit abroad in Eastern England??

    There is regular heavy snow in Wicklow but they ignore it because ENGERLAND is more exciting and that is the truth of the matter.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭ Dead_Rabbits


    The iPhone weather backs you up Dead Rabbits. Sunday/Monday Snow everywhere.

    Guess we can't argue with the might of Apple Corp! :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 jo06555


    " About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
    Whats mixing mean????


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭ Musicman2000


    jo06555 wrote: »
    " About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
    Whats mixing mean????

    Changing from rain to snow, sleet, rain , snow etc


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,791 BEASTERLY


    Various 12z models' output for 144 hours, spot the odd one out? :cool:

    ECM
    ECM1-144_rcd9.GIF
    GEM
    gem-0-144_top5.png
    UKMO
    UW144-21_zdf9.GIF
    GFS
    gfs-0-144_mci7.png
    NOGAPS
    nogaps-0-144_bpi1.png
    JMA
    J144-21_sgk1.GIF
    BOM
    bom-0-144_zzf8.png
    CMA
    cma-0-144_xbm0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 jo06555



    Changing from rain to snow, sleet, rain , snow etc
    Nothing new their so! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    jo06555 wrote: »
    " About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
    Whats mixing mean????

    Milder air. Mixed precipitation. I'd only expect rain/sleet at low levels in Waterford to be honest.

    A very bullish forecast from M.T. there. I hope he survives the virtual lynching on here if that doesn't work out. :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,649 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    The great thing is that the early push of cold air to the northeast on Friday on the EC DET is not an outlier :D

    So things could turn white rapidly late Friday.

    EC OP

    ECM0-48.GIF

    EC MEAN

    EDM0-48.GIF?16-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,576 ✭✭✭ Rougies


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Various 12z models' output for 144 hours, spot the odd one out? :cool:

    Go home GFS, you''re drunk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,649 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    The EC OP is not an outlier. The EC means has the cold advancing from the east late Friday through the weekend with snow for many.

    Met Eireann to change their tune at 930 or look rather foolish.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭ Dead_Rabbits


    GFS

    gtfo_gold_gif.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 671 NIALL D


    from reading MT's post , i hope the likes of cork tipp waterford get blasted with snow :) and dublin & the north get nada , cause its normally the other way round !!!

    maybe it will work out in our favour down south hopefully :cool:

    RRAAAAMMMMPPPP


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,576 ✭✭✭ Rougies


    Milder air. Mixed precipitation. I'd only expect rain/sleet at low levels in Waterford to be honest.

    A very bullish forecast from M.T. there. I hope he survives the virtual lynching on here if that doesn't work out. :P

    He worded it like a true pro though, with words like, IF, MIGHT, POTENTIAL, POSSIBLE etc. before any mention of snow. We all know it's a bit of a ramp though :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    ECM mean at 144.

    EDM1-144.GIF?16-0

    Suggests good support for heights rising northwest at 240.

    EDM1-240.GIF?16-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,900 ✭✭✭ Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Now, the question is does the GFS do a backtrack on the 18z ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 163 ✭✭ Dead_Rabbits


    Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK :D


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,583 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    There is still a lot of things that can change before Sunday that could easily make it an all rain event on low levels.

    I'd seriously advice people not to raise their expectations at this stage.

    Indeed. Lots of potential and time for a downgrade. I have the T-shirt from years of model watching! :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭✭ Graupel


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Now, the question is does the GFS do a backtrack on the 18z ?

    I wouldnt expect anything till the 00z.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,900 ✭✭✭ Tom Cruises Left Nut


    The NAE tomorrow will be interesting, hoping to see more pinks !


  • Registered Users Posts: 979 ✭✭✭ Lucreto


    If we do get snow at the weekend or next week. This will be me

    tumblr_l7mgtgeBa91qc073co1_400.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭ Problem123456


    Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK :D
    Haha delighted


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  • Registered Users Posts: 991 ✭✭✭ icesnowfrost


    How's it looking for snow at lower levels in the north east through the weekend


This discussion has been closed.
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