LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

JanuarySnowstor

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Actually I was probably too quick to jump conclusions. If the ECM came off we would also be pulling a lot of surface cold off the one big snow field that will be the UK!

Not to mind the dewpoints over Western UK.
As low as -10 going by the gfs

zidewayz

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yeah, snow at or above 500 metres today.

See: http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=3216.915

Kippure wrote: »

Thanks for the pictures guys.

Theres abig differance between Canadian snow and irish snow. It means more to get irish snow. Here in alberta we,ve snow from october to May and it gets after awhile a pain in the arse. If it was irish snow i wouldnt mind one bit.:)

I plan on heading upto the mast on Kippure tom with the dog so will hopefully post a few more snow pics on my return.

maquiladora

Also, I wouldn't be too considered about exact uppers on the ECM 120, 144 hours out etc. when we are unsure about them even 48 hours out at the moment.

Kippure

zidewayz wrote: »

I plan on heading upto the mast on Kippure tom with the dog so will hopefully post a few more snow pics on my return.

Make sure you dress for the weather. During winter its a differant ball game when you go walking so high up.:)

M.T. Cranium

Battle of the air masses and battle of the models at the same time. A forecasting nightmare.

However it is a 3-1 advantage for the colder solution among the four models that I consider most reliable (most reliable recently in this order, ECM, GEM, UK, GFS). Only the GFS fails to develop a strong low on a southeast heading track Sunday-Monday. A blend of the other three would bring snow potential to most of the southern half of the country Sunday night into Monday morning.

That might turn out to be elevation based but certainly the potential is there for 20-30 cm falls on slopes above 150m in the southeast where orographic uplift will help boost totals. About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford. Some parts of eastern Northern Ireland could be added in due to local streamers outside the storm precip shield but most of the guidance keeps Connacht and west Ulster dry. There again they could see a bit of snow during the period as winds back from ESE to NE.

If the odd man out GFS is right, nothing much will happen and Ireland will stay in 3-5 C or milder with light rain and just a slight potential for snow on hills.

Also most of the model consensus shows a deepening of cold by Wed-Thurs of next week with good potential for east coast snow streamers developing. The key to the solution I feel is the intensity of cold at present over Britain, this is setting up to enter the circulation whenever the pressure gradient backs around enough to pull the colder air across the Irish Sea. The Friday early morning frontal system fails to change the balance but then it dies out over western Britain and possibly this would begin to edge back west as a back door cold front that would slowly wrap around the approaching Atlantic low.

Nothing too clarified yet but potential is there for snow on Sunday-Monday, heaviest falls would be around 150-300m elevations on east slopes of Wicklow and Dublin Mtns so southern higher suburbs of Dublin could see perhaps 10-15 cm while it could be a sleety mix at sea level there. In a circulation like this projected low you would only need about -5 C at 850 mbs and 528 dm thickness to get snow.

Dead_Rabbits

Battleground Ireland

drunkmonkey

The iPhone weather backs you up Dead Rabbits. Sunday/Monday Snow everywhere.

Trotter

Sunglasses and shorts again for Waterford.. the only place in the world where the weather doesnt change from grey clouds and 10-15 degrees! :mad:

fontenoy7

zidewayz wrote: »

The Pics I posted a few pages back were taken around 14.30. Snow was well sticking at that stage. Snow level was 480m asl.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056799298&page=298

Can you imagine the Irish press publishing anything ' Irish' with respect to snow when they can concentrate on a little bit abroad in Eastern England??

There is regular heavy snow in Wicklow but they ignore it because ENGERLAND is more exciting and that is the truth of the matter.

Dead_Rabbits

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The iPhone weather backs you up Dead Rabbits. Sunday/Monday Snow everywhere.

Guess we can't argue with the might of Apple Corp! :rolleyes:

jo06555

" About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
Whats mixing mean????

Musicman2000

jo06555 wrote: »

" About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
Whats mixing mean????

Changing from rain to snow, sleet, rain , snow etc

BEASTERLY

Various 12z models' output for 144 hours, spot the odd one out? :cool:

ECM

GEM

UKMO

GFS

NOGAPS

JMA

BOM

CMA

jo06555

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Changing from rain to snow, sleet, rain , snow etc

Nothing new their so!

maquiladora

jo06555 wrote: »

" About 5-10 cm potential elsewhere but with mixing issues for places like Cork and Waterford."
Whats mixing mean????

Milder air. Mixed precipitation. I'd only expect rain/sleet at low levels in Waterford to be honest.

A very bullish forecast from M.T. there. I hope he survives the virtual lynching on here if that doesn't work out. :P

ninebeanrows

The great thing is that the early push of cold air to the northeast on Friday on the EC DET is not an outlier

So things could turn white rapidly late Friday.

EC OP



EC MEAN

Rougies

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Various 12z models' output for 144 hours, spot the odd one out? :cool:

Go home GFS, you''re drunk.

ninebeanrows

The EC OP is not an outlier. The EC means has the cold advancing from the east late Friday through the weekend with snow for many.

Met Eireann to change their tune at 930 or look rather foolish.

Dead_Rabbits

GFS

NIALL D

from reading MT's post , i hope the likes of cork tipp waterford get blasted with snow and dublin & the north get nada , cause its normally the other way round !!!

maybe it will work out in our favour down south hopefully :cool:

RRAAAAMMMMPPPP

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Milder air. Mixed precipitation. I'd only expect rain/sleet at low levels in Waterford to be honest.

A very bullish forecast from M.T. there. I hope he survives the virtual lynching on here if that doesn't work out. :P

He worded it like a true pro though, with words like, IF, MIGHT, POTENTIAL, POSSIBLE etc. before any mention of snow. We all know it's a bit of a ramp though

maquiladora

ECM mean at 144.



Suggests good support for heights rising northwest at 240.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Now, the question is does the GFS do a backtrack on the 18z ?

Dead_Rabbits

Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

There is still a lot of things that can change before Sunday that could easily make it an all rain event on low levels.

I'd seriously advice people not to raise their expectations at this stage.

Indeed. Lots of potential and time for a downgrade. I have the T-shirt from years of model watching! :pac:

Graupel

t|nt|n wrote: »

Now, the question is does the GFS do a backtrack on the 18z ?

I wouldnt expect anything till the 00z.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The NAE tomorrow will be interesting, hoping to see more pinks !

Lucreto

If we do get snow at the weekend or next week. This will be me

Problem123456

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

Bit of panic over on NW about weekend precip moving west and dumping its load before it reaches them in the UK

Haha delighted

icesnowfrost

How's it looking for snow at lower levels in the north east through the weekend