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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

    Evidence suggest no noticeable accuracy difference between 00z/12z and 06z/18z. Also the notion that the 06z//18z has less data input it more myth than fact. 3rd post in that thread.

    acz5.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY



    Check the link I gave above. Seems the less data story is a myth more than fact. In the long run, no real difference in verification stats.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    we will set up an 'event' thread if the morning models warrant one.

    Snowy dreams to all.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    we will set up an 'event' thread if the morning models warrant one.

    Snowy dreams to all.

    That sounds great Weathercheck - the alternative will be "Britannia gets the snow, Hibernia the rain, as usual" :D

    I am hoping for the "event" thread

    D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5 Sibehusk


    You know you've reached your wits end when you're shouting 'You Fcuking Liar' at Gerry Murphy at 9:31 p.m. on a Weds night. The wife even had to come in to tell me to calm down.

    I'm going to have to go for therapy soon.

    He didn't even say Sleet.He had it on the summary chart for Sunday, and he wouldn't even say the word.

    Pmsl. I was the same.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

    It's Wednesday. There's no need for them to talk about the weekend forecast on TV yet. It's a marginal situation with changes on the models every 12 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

    Met office dont see us getting anything either but all of uk on friday to get it :( disaster ..... bbc link too
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i08De9-lPcE&feature=youtube_gdata_player ??????


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Ensemble mean for t78. Nice.
    gens-21-0-78_rae2.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    ME have been spot on all week. As the usual rampers have been on here chasing their tails, ME have been generating accurate forecasts. Forecasts that have not been what people wanted to hear but their job is not to please a pack of snowbunnies on a discussion board but to say it as it is. There is time enough to mention snow tomorrow if and when the chances grow to more than the current remote.

    People need to grow up a little. Many are dillusional to think that they know more than a national weather service and that members of this service may change their forecasts based on what is posted by some on here. ECMWF members also have access to 06 and 18Z ECMWF model runs at 1-hr steps out to 90 hours. They have a plethora of extra parameters in all the models, many more than are available to us, plus experience, so I think they know what they're doing.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Going by the present models (except GFS) I would not rule out a wintry weekend with snow.

    Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?
    What time is the next run out?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?

    When it happens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 203 ✭✭Tornando9


    100% certainty of the outcome on Monday.
    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    This is the thing, met eireann have been wrong time and again. They have changed their forecasts consistently, I could show you quote from few days ago saying snow accumulations in the east and north easy for Tuesday night and today. They just change their mind day before. Their forecast beyond a day or two have been consistently off.

    In fairness, weather models have been so erratic but changing forecast every day doesn't exactly count as correct forecasting!!

    Forecasting by its nature will always be inaccuarte to some degree. Since someone got carried away with forecasting snow 1 week in advance they've been fairly spot on in fairness. Definitely the best forecast your gonna get for this island.


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.
    Which GFS:confused:


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,498 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

    Evidence suggest no noticeable accuracy difference between 00z/12z and 06z/18z. Also the notion that the 06z//18z has less data input it more myth than fact. 3rd post in that thread.

    acz5.gif

    Cheers Beasterly, so both ECM runs are more accuarte than all GFS runs :) No shock there.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Maybe a bigger concern for Friday is the potential for some flooding? looks like a fair bit of rain could fall over what is a basically a very saturated country at this point. This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭Graupel


    At least the GFS developed the low this time it was nowhere to be seen on the 12z, To me thats a step in the right direction. I wasnt expecting any sort of a backtrack from the GFS till morning so happy enough.

    Morning should be fun


  • Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭oterra


    This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.

    Tell me about it, de wife hasn't stopped goin on about it all week!!!:eek:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Which GFS:confused:

    Both the 12z and 18z are colder than the UKMO and ECM for this weekend. GFS goes mild early next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,691 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I can understand the frustration but to my mind this is a simpler situation than is being speculated on. For Ireland to see snow in the current circumstances we would need the kind of cold air and land that Britain has for the mild fronts to override and turn to snow, we dont even remotely have that so it just wont come through for us without a major cold pool push west and a week of penetrating air and ground frost. The margins are across Wales but for us id say its a bust out to +144 at least


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Maybe a bigger concern for Friday is the potential for some flooding? looks like a fair bit of rain could fall over what is a basically a very saturated country at this point. This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.

    Yep. Close to 30mm in most places by 6pm Friday on the NAE, higher in some spots.

    13011818_1618.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Conor30


    jo06555 wrote: »
    Met office dont see us getting anything either but all of uk on friday to get it :( disaster ..... bbc link too
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i08De9-lPcE&feature=youtube_gdata_player ??????


    Thanks for posting. Shows clearly that Ireland will be getting just rain on Fri anyway. Wouldn't it be so cool if the cold air just shunted westwards a bit more!!! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    I can understand the frustration but to my mind this is a simpler situation than is being speculated on. For Ireland to see snow in the current circumstances we would need the kind of cold air and land that Britain has for the mild fronts to override and turn to snow, we dont even remotely have that so it just wont come through for us without a major cold pool push west and a week of penetrating air and ground frost. The margins are across Wales but for us id say its a bust out to +144 at least

    MT has confirmed speculation on here that you would only need -5 uppers for snow with this kind of set up. All models show that possibility for Sun / Mon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Just out of interest would the Met Office even report snow in the Republic. It's main concern in the UK.

    It looks kind of odd that snow is forecast only in UK owned areas.


  • Registered Users Posts: 245 ✭✭Blizzard 2010


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Both the 12z and 18z are colder than the UKMO and ECM for this weekend. GFS goes mild early next week.
    I am just after seeing the 18z. All three models are broadly the same. The positioning of the LP will be important. The 12z wasnt as progressive as the 18z.


  • Registered Users Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Entire UK apart from Northern Ireland under snow warning... Northern Ireland under rain :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    compsys wrote: »
    It's midnight in the pit of winter and the temperature in Dublin is 6 degrees. It's forecast to reach 10 in some places tomorrow. That's on the mild side even for Ireland.

    Christmas Eve 2004.

    3pm temperatures 14c in Cork
    11pm temperatures 2c in Cork - with Snow.

    Things can and do change rapidly.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Entire UK apart from Northern Ireland under snow warning... Northern Ireland under rain :(

    That may change tomorrow.

    13011818_1618.gif


This discussion has been closed.
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