Rory McIlroy - 4 Time Major Winner

Hitch2222 · 20-03-2019 11:30am

I think they should add some additional complexity to make driving accuracy more representative of the impact in various spots.
It seems a tad crude to continue with a binary measure of on/off fairway.

I read this article a few years back https://www.golfdigest.com/story/sanders_gd0809 which suggested some changes but I'm sure some additional measures could be added.

A mate uses this site which is subs based https://www.golfstats.com/

It layers additional complexity on various stats but I'm not quite sure of the logic. Interestingly it had Rory ranked 5th on the week in driving accuracy.

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 11:30am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I recall on sundays coverage they showed a clip of him coming off the range in the dark late the previous evening. Whatever the issue i think it’s fair to say he ironed it out a fair bit.

Yeah. And to be fair, the only time on Saturday that he hit the rough and got a bogey as a result was on the first.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 11:36am

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. And to be fair, the only time on Saturday that he hit the rough and got a bogey as a result was on the first.

Yes true, only other thing about Saturday I would point out was he was just level par for the par 5s which I’m not sure was entirely down to his tee shots, but would guess was a contributory factor.

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 11:39am

Hitch2222 wrote: »

I think they should add some additional complexity to make driving accuracy more representative of the impact in various spots.
It seems a tad crude to continue with a binary measure of on/off fairway.

I read this article a few years back https://www.golfdigest.com/story/sanders_gd0809 which suggested some changes but I'm sure some additional measures could be added.

I think you can look at it in conjunction with the GIR for the round. If you miss fairways a lot, but are still getting a good percentage of GIR, then it's probably fair to say that your drives aren't getting you into too much trouble. Obviously you need to take the par 3s out of that, but it should give you an accurate enough picture. Like if you have to play to one side or other of the fairway to get a good look at the green/flag and you overcook it slightly or get a big bounce and you're in the first cut, you'd probably be very happy with your second shot.

Of course there's the Phil Mickelson approach where you tee off and tell your partners that you'll see them on the green.

Hitch2222 · 20-03-2019 11:43am

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think you can look at it in conjunction with the GIR for the round. If you miss fairways a lot, but are still getting a good percentage of GIR, then it's probably fair to say that your drives aren't getting you into too much trouble. Obviously you need to take the par 3s out of that, but it should give you an accurate enough picture. Like if you have to play to one side or other of the fairway to get a good look at the green/flag and you overcook it slightly or get a big bounce and you're in the first cut, you'd probably be very happy with your second shot.

Of course there's the Phil Mickelson approach where you tee off and tell your partners that you'll see them on the green.

I added that site there that a mate uses, he's in sports betting industry, Golf being super high variance stuff, any edge is welcome.
Bread & butter tends to be match bets.

As I said, McIlroy ranked 5th on the week in driving accuracy. I'd be interested in seeing the underlying logic which contribute to their numbers.

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 11:46am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yes true, only other thing about Saturday I would point out was he was just level par for the par 5s which I’m not sure was entirely down to his tee shots, but would guess was a contributory factor.

The funny thing about that is that he hit every fairway on the par 5s on Saturday bar the 16th where he was in the pine straw on the left. On the 2nd, his second shot went in the rough - bogey, on the 9th he was left and had no shot at the green, so had to lay up - par, on the 11th - birdie and on the 16th he over hit his second into the water - par.

Edit: Just in reference to Hitch's post above, I would suspect that the accuracy referred to would be biased towards position for the next shot. So the situation that I referred to on the 9th basically gave him a very slim chance of a birdie, even though he was on the fairway.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 11:51am

prawnsambo wrote: »

The funny thing about that is that he hit every fairway on the par 5s on Saturday bar the 16th where he was in the pine straw on the left. On the 2nd, his second shot went in the rough - bogey, on the 9th he was left and had no shot at the green, so had to lay up - par, on the 11th - birdie and on the 16th he over hit his second into the water - par.

The drive on 16 i thought he struck sweet as a nut, just tried to be too aggressive with it. Also thought he diced with danger on 18 a bit, but got away with it. Maybe there’s that line for mcilroy between positive aggression and needless risk, but there’s no doubt - as someone posted here last week - it makes him a thrilling golfer to watch.

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 11:58am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The drive on 16 i thought he struck sweet as a nut, just tried to be too aggressive with it. Also thought he diced with danger on 18 a bit, but got away with it. Maybe there’s that line for mcilroy between positive aggression and needless risk, but there’s no doubt - as someone posted here last week - it makes him a thrilling golfer to watch.

I think he likes to play a slight cut shot these days rather than the draw of yore. And I think the draw started to reassert itself on Saturday which is what he was working on. I would think that the cut works for him because it lands softer and he doesn't get that run that can get him into trouble on what would otherwise be a great drive. So they look great and all of us here would donate body parts to have something like it, but for him, it's a bit too troublesome because of his length.

GreeBo · 20-03-2019 12:15pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think he likes to play a slight cut shot these days rather than the draw of yore. And I think the draw started to reassert itself on Saturday which is what he was working on. I would think that the cut works for him because it lands softer and he doesn't get that run that can get him into trouble on what would otherwise be a great drive. So they look great and all of us here would donate body parts to have something like it, but for him, it's a bit too troublesome because of his length.

Fairways were soft though, so even there wasnt going to be big bounces or run offs, Even though he did well out of most of them, hitting a fairway bunker from the tee still has to be counted as a miss, he got great lies most of the time but on one hole on Sunday he was about a foot away from being in a lump of hay and thought he was in it himself.

He made an interesting comment in one of the interviews that basically he thinks so far this year he has maybe stopped hitting what was "maybe the wrong shot" and getting himself in trouble, which is a really good sign of improved maturity imo. Even if he still does it the odd time, at least he knows that he does it and hopefully he will listen if the diamond geezer jumps in, unlike mr Rahm.

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 12:35pm

GreeBo wrote: »

Fairways were soft though, so even there wasnt going to be big bounces or run offs, Even though he did well out of most of them, hitting a fairway bunker from the tee still has to be counted as a miss, he got great lies most of the time but on one hole on Sunday he was about a foot away from being in a lump of hay and thought he was in it himself.

He made an interesting comment in one of the interviews that basically he thinks so far this year he has maybe stopped hitting what was "maybe the wrong shot" and getting himself in trouble, which is a really good sign of improved maturity imo. Even if he still does it the odd time, at least he knows that he does it and hopefully he will listen if the diamond geezer jumps in, unlike mr Rahm.

I get the impression that he talks a lot more with Harry Diamond about shots than he did with JP. It's only based on what we see on TV, but they are usually in close proximity and talking before he takes on a shot.

Hitch2222 · 20-03-2019 1:03pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Edit: Just in reference to Hitch's post above, I would suspect that the accuracy referred to would be biased towards position for the next shot. So the situation that I referred to on the 9th basically gave him a very slim chance of a birdie, even though he was on the fairway.

That's interesting, that would very cool if that's being modeled as it would be quite a complex statistical model to integrate.

I was thinking more along the lines of what that article alluded to, X distance from fairway, adjustments for rough, depth, weather.

Golf offers a great playground to test variables for sports stats but it's so complex given the amount of open skills involved.

20-03-2019 4:37pm

Hitch2222 wrote: »

That's interesting, that would very cool if that's being modeled as it would be quite a complex statistical model to integrate.

I was thinking more along the lines of what that article alluded to, X distance from fairway, adjustments for rough, depth, weather.

Golf offers a great playground to test variables for sports stats but it's so complex given the amount of open skills involved.

I think the stat good drives covers what prawnsambo says.

https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02438.html

charlieIRL · 20-03-2019 7:30pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I recall on sundays coverage they showed a clip of him coming off the range in the dark late the previous evening. Whatever the issue i think it’s fair to say he ironed it out a fair bit.

Tim Barter asked him about it in the interview before Sundays round and McIlroy admitted he worked on his driving and it was a slight timing issue that was the problem on Saturday.

I think we're getting very hung up on this one topic here as well too.

GreeBo · 20-03-2019 8:35pm

charlieIRL wrote: »

Tim Barter asked him about it in the interview before Sundays round and McIlroy admitted he worked on his driving and it was a slight timing issue that was the problem on Saturday.

I think we're getting very hung up on this one topic here as well too.

I don't think discussing it is getting hung up on it?

Its just an observation i don't think anyone is really saying it's a huge issue or anything.

prawnsambo · 21-03-2019 8:57am

GreeBo wrote: »

I don't think discussing it is getting hung up on it?

Its just an observation i don't think anyone is really saying it's a huge issue or anything.

Yeah, it strikes me that he would have had these sorts of issues mid-tournament before and been unable to fix them so quickly. I wonder is that something that Harry Diamond would be spotting; they've both been coached by Michael Bannon and played together since they were juniors.

Pogue eile · 21-03-2019 3:31pm

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Rory isn't the type of guy to win 8-10 tournaments like Tiger was.

He's consistently shown throughout his career he wins 1 or 2 per year on average, so a streak isn't likely.

Wouldn't rule him out for the masters though.

In 2014 he won 4 tournaments out of 6, including 2 majors and a WGC.

Dav010 wrote: »

But why does this seem to bother you and a few others so much? It’s a discussion forum, posters will not always have the same opinions. This thread keeps getting derailed because posters like you take criticisms of the topic personally, it is really strange.

It's not the criticism at all and of course every athlete is open to criticism and it is part and parcel for anyone working in the public eye, however the issue that I have is firstly the unbalanced and irrational nature of most of it and secondly and far more significantly the undoubted fact that it is borne over a dislike of the person as opposed to his golf.

Dav010 · 21-03-2019 3:57pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

In 2014 he won 4 tournaments out of 6, including 2 majors and a WGC.

It's not the criticism at all and of course every athlete is open to criticism and it is part and parcel for anyone working in the public eye, however the issue that I have is firstly the unbalanced and irrational nature of most of it and secondly and far more significantly the undoubted fact that it is borne over a dislike of the person as opposed to his golf.

He’s a guy I watch on TV, I don’t like him or dislike him. Certainly he has done some unlkeable things like dumping his fiancée by text, trying to screw his agent after he negotiated deals as per the terms of their agreement and the debacle about the Zika fly/olympics. But I don’t know him. If anything the apparent man love which is sometimes evident in a few posters looks stronger than any dislike in others. As another poster said, any criticism is met with a concerted lynching. For a discussion forum, it seems only one opinion is tolerated. But, it doesn’t bother me like it seems to bother others, Like most, I understand that my opinion isn’t always right, and not everyone will agree with me. If you think I don’t like him, so be it.

Where you guys think he is not deserving of criticism because he won loads 2012-14, I think deserves criticism for not winning much since, particularly the last two and a half years. Who would have thought in ‘14 that he would enter the last year of the decade looking to rediscover the form of those two years. Granted things look very promising indeed at the moment.

I think if you want only positive posts, the thread should be renamed to reflect that.

Pogue eile · 21-03-2019 4:10pm

Dav010 wrote: »

He’s a guy I watch on TV, I don’t like him or dislike him. Certainly he has done some unlkeable things like dumping his fiancée by text, trying to screw his agent after he negotiated deals as per the terms of their agreement and the debacle about the Zika fly/olympics.

If you are going to plain lie then there isn't really much point in discussing - that hate will kill you man

Dav010 · 21-03-2019 4:16pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

If you are going to plain lie then there isn't really much point in discussing - that hate will kill you man

Is this the school yard?

Pogue eile · 21-03-2019 5:11pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Is this the school yard?

It would certainly appear so.

You have 43 posts in the Golf forum, 42 of those are negative posts regarding McIlroy, but you want us to believe that you don't dislike him, you're right only a school child would be fooled by your lies.

Dav010 · 21-03-2019 5:18pm

Pogue eile wrote: »

It would certainly appear so.

You have 43 posts in the Golf forum, 42 of those are negative posts regarding McIlroy, but you want us to believe that you don't dislike him, you're right only a school child would be fooled by your lies.

Apparently so.

Dr. Bre · 21-03-2019 5:55pm

So will Rory play anywhere before masters ?

Dav010 · 21-03-2019 6:01pm

Dr. Bre wrote: »

So will Rory play anywhere before masters ?

WGC matchplay 27-31 March according to his website.

valoren · 22-03-2019 9:52am

If he wins the Masters then he will spend the rest of his career running victory laps.

All the Majors, the Players, FedEx Cup being the highlights.
Irish Open, Amateur Silver medal, PGA Championship (the Euro tour 'Major'), couple of WGC wins, Ryder Cup stalwart.

The Masters is the final piece of the puzzle. I think he will win it at some stage too.
It's a game of peaks and troughs and to maintain the peak is so incredibly difficult but when on form he has capitalized.

Winning the Players would be a career for many given the prize money, increased status with sponsors and invitations but it's just another feather in McIlroy's cap. He strikes me as a 'been there, done that' kind of guy and if he squares the circle with tournament win's by winning at Augusta and feels that there is nothing to prove to himself then he would wind down his schedule and take a prolonged sabbatical.

GreeBo · 22-03-2019 10:02am

valoren wrote: »

he would wind down his schedule and take a prolonged sabbatical.

I doubt that is going to happen, if he starts winning majors again then he will be trying to add to them imo.

Now as for whether or not we will see him on the Champions tour...I'd have my doubts...but I'd say its some craic for the lads who made it big before getting there.

Mantis Toboggan · 22-03-2019 10:20am

He's probably done enough already for the Hall of Fame. Some achievement at 29.

ronjo · 25-03-2019 5:02pm

Didn't Rory say the reason that he isn't playing Lahinch is that he wants to play the week before a Major but not two??

If that's the case, anyone know why he is playing this week?

First Up · 25-03-2019 5:48pm

ronjo wrote:

Didn't Rory say the reason that he isn't playing Lahinch is that he wants to play the week before a Major but not two??

I think he meant he didn't want to play in each of the two weeks before a major.

Russman · 25-03-2019 6:38pm

ronjo wrote: »

Didn't Rory say the reason that he isn't playing Lahinch is that he wants to play the week before a Major but not two??

If that's the case, anyone know why he is playing this week?

I don’t think he’s playing next week, so with this week being a WGC, it makes sense to play.

Joe_ Public · 25-03-2019 7:55pm

First Up wrote: »

I think he meant he didn't want to play in each of the two weeks before a major.

Yes, this is just about it, but i think he definitely wants to play the week before a major if possible. Hence he will make debut in canadian open week before us open. If scottish and irish opens were other way round, we’d probably have been seeing him in clare.

Rory McIlroy - 4 Time Major Winner

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