new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

rossie1977 · 03-02-2020 12:50am

There isn't going to be a cure for a virus like this. We don't have a cure for common cold or the flu after all this time. Flu vaccine is only partially effective at best, in truth it puts people at ease more than offering protection.

Each persons immune system will deal with the virus in slightly different ways. Reading recently about how the flu reacts so different in people. A mid 20s bodybuilder with no medical history saw the flu turn his immune system into overdrive thus killing him quite quickly.

Dante7 · 03-02-2020 12:54am

rossie1977 wrote: »

There isn't going to be a cure for a virus like this. We don't have a cure for common cold or the flu after all this time. Flu vaccine is only partially effective at best, in truth it puts people at ease more than offering protection.

Each persons immune system will deal with the virus in slightly different ways. Reading recently about how the flu reacts so different in people. A mid 20s bodybuilder with no medical history saw the flu turn his immune system into overdrive thus killing him quite quickly.

Another clown post that has no idea how viruses or vaccines work.

fritzelly · 03-02-2020 12:58am

Nearly another 600 positive cases added to the days total

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2020 1:00am

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1224115338389815297

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1224081265587978240

Sierra Oscar · 03-02-2020 3:15am

Chinese markets have opened in the last hour for the first time since the Lunar New Year following the outbreak. They've currently tanked 7%. The economic impact of this will be profound.

Chinese markets plummet beyond 7% amid virus fears on first trading day after Lunar New Year holiday

Quantum Erasure · 03-02-2020 3:32am

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1224147479152689153/

Yurt2 · 03-02-2020 3:50am

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Chinese markets have opened in the last hour for the first time since the Lunar New Year following the outbreak. They've currently tanked 7%. The economic impact of this will be profound.

Chinese markets plummet beyond 7% amid virus fears on first trading day after Lunar New Year holiday

Commodities trading suspended in Shanghai in the last few minutes according to Guardian.

This won't be pretty, the average urban Chinese punter (taxi driver, housewife) love a flutter on the stock market - huge average Joe exposure to a bloodbath on the market.

ardinn · 03-02-2020 5:29am

Posted a couple of pages back and I posted it a few days ago too but this guy

https://youtu.be/z05ZrMfKUDc

Is probably the best of the lot at the moment on reporting about the virus.

He has uploaded a video every day for the last while and they are all excellent, he is an english doctor, no hype, no bullsh1t, just sitting in his office teaching you about whats happening in very easy to follow ways. He uses only qualified reports from trusted medical journals and the WHO (who he seems to think are too lax on this but is too polite to come out and blast them)

I have been watching him all week, and today, was the first time I have seen him look genuinely worried.

A tldr version of the video above

Death rate will not be calculable until after event (obviously)
R0 number has increased from 2.4 - 2.7
75,000 is a 95% certainty of infected on Jan 25th - johns hopkins report - between 30k and 130k infected jan 25th
Would agree with draconian measures to stop spread of disease in areas where cases are confirmed.

His last 30 seconds were sobering, he has been very upbeat in all videos until today, and was clearly thinking about not saying it, but after explaining the complications arising from the disease, he said if there is large numbers of cases, they would not be able to treat them all.

03-02-2020 6:09am

Latest case today in Vietnam brings it to eight officially. She was in Wuhan and is a colleague of three others who have it. They all returned to Vietnam on the 17th January, her co-workers tested positive last Friday, and her today.

Feels like the next week will give proper indication of how big this will be globally. All these people who have gone around the world from China should be reaching the end of potential incubation periods and people they've infected since landing will be starting to show.

Tet communal meals are so conducive to spreading disease. You're always using your own chopsticks and spoon to get stuff out of bowls in the middle.

Eg.

cloudatlas · 03-02-2020 7:23am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Ebola is not airborne so it's spread is very limited and tends to stay localised. This is highly infectious by the looks of it. If its mortality rate gets anywhere near SARS or MERS we're fcukd.

This isn’t ‘airborne’ either.

cloudatlas · 03-02-2020 7:24am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Ebola is not airborne so it's spread is very limited and tends to stay localised. This is highly infectious by the looks of it. If its mortality rate gets anywhere near SARS or MERS we're fcukd.

This isn’t ‘airborne’ either.

VinLieger · 03-02-2020 8:01am

Still no word on the Irish case off the flight from Moscow, im still raging they let everyone go home, massively lazy and irresponsible

03-02-2020 8:06am

VinLieger wrote: »

Still no word on the Irish case off the flight from Moscow, im still raging they let everyone go home, massively lazy and irresponsible

What's the story from that case? Was he in Wuhan or something?

VinLieger · 03-02-2020 8:07am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What's the story from that case? Was he in Wuhan or something?

No details that ive seen unfortunately

Graces7 · 03-02-2020 8:24am

China is in trouble elsewhere; reading about the outbreak of bird flu; cannot post links but easy to find.

Another that is transmissible to humans?

03-02-2020 8:26am

Graces7 wrote: »

China is in trouble elsewhere; reading about the outbreak of bird flu; cannot post links but easy to find.

Another that is transmissible to humans?

Really difficult to pass onto humans. The chickens that were killed had a strain that meant it was easy for them to pass it onto each other, not us, so it's really a non-story.

60% mortality rate if it does get to humans, though.

wellwhynot · 03-02-2020 8:53am

VinLieger wrote: »

Still no word on the Irish case off the flight from Moscow, im still raging they let everyone go home, massively lazy and irresponsible

It is worrying. The government had a chance to contain/prevent this arriving here the week before election but that chance is now gone.

I think all people who have been in China in the last 17 days should be banned from entering the country or quarantined (not self quarantined). Other countries have done this so why not us?

Our hospitals would not be able to cope if this virus took hold here and we certainly would not be able to build a new medical facility in a short space of time.

SeaBreezes · 03-02-2020 9:07am

Hats off to these guys the first to call it with HIV properties
they also suggested it wasn't a natural evolution and were forced to withdraw their paper. But I'm guessing it lead to the idea of using the HIV/FLU drugs cocktail that seems to work:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

Taken together, our findings suggest unconventional evolution of 2019-nCoV that warrants further investigation. Our work highlights novel evolutionary aspects of the 2019-nCoV and has implications on the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this virus.

car_radio19834 · 03-02-2020 9:10am

Chinese market down nearly 8%!!!!

PokeHerKing · 03-02-2020 9:18am

cloudatlas wrote: »

This isn’t ‘airborne’ either.

Yes it is.

igCorcaigh · 03-02-2020 9:27am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Yes it is.

Via droplets. Not quite the same thing.

Del.Monte · 03-02-2020 9:29am

Flicked on the RTE news at 8am - no mention whatsoever - nothing like keeping the public informed or asking government ministers hard questions. RTE must not bite the hands that feeds them. :rolleyes:

03-02-2020 9:54am

French evacuees OK so far:

"Initial tests carried out on around 20 people who were repatriated to France from China presented negative results for coronavirus, the French junior health minister Adrien Taquet has told BFMTV.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-evacuations-flights-latest-news-death-toll-climbs-passing-sars

03-02-2020 9:58am

car_radio19834 wrote: »

Chinese market down nearly 8%!!!!

It would be worse if the government hadn't intervened. This is gonna be a wild ride.

car_radio19834 · 03-02-2020 10:03am

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be worse if the government hadn't intervened. This is gonna be a wild ride.

US futures are up, which I find strange.

If Chinese market is suffering then you'd think most of the S&P500 do lots of business in China too which will damage their earnings.

Rvsmmnps · 03-02-2020 10:39am

Aidapearla cruise ship has been rejected docking at st Lucia. There are reports of an extra amount of people I'll with fever.
I work in the cruise industry in Europe, we are seeing much increased numbers of people from India and China going on tour. (MSc cruises)
This corona virus might cripple the industry for a year at least. Seeing as so many crew are from China etc.

PokeHerKing · 03-02-2020 10:48am

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Via droplets. Not quite the same thing.

Pretty much the definition of an airborne virus.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2020 10:49am

Hong Kong closing 10 of it's 13 border crossing with mainland China.

car_radio19834 · 03-02-2020 10:50am

Can a mod please make n a capital letter in the thread title. It's pissing me off. haha

Drumpot · 03-02-2020 11:02am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Pretty much the definition of an airborne virus.

Supposedly that’s innacurate. I wouldn’t of known the difference but this Q&A is very helpful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A6dyHA2KMM

Airborne suggests that the virus is smaller and will remain in the air longer then normal droplets that should not be an issue a few mins after being discarded into a room.

He explains that a face mask probably is enough for droplet type transmission. Also a bit less hyperbolic then some of the links.

The way I see it, we really don’t know how serious it is just yet. When we see the death rate and spreading rate in countries with reliable figures and more comparable health systems to ours, then we will be able to figure out how bad this might get.

I’ve been keeping an eye on face masks and even contacted Aer Lingus about a booked trip to Washington in April but I would consider myself in the middle. I like to stay informed on these things and make balanced decisions on the information available.

creditcarder · 03-02-2020 11:08am

Pretty much the definition of an airborne virus.'

In fairness, most people imagine airborne in the same sense of a gas leak. As in, a person sneezes and it spreads for miles.

In reality, although I could be wrong, it is more Luke having bubbles of fairy liquid in the air. They will pop sooner or later and they are kind if stationery.

Stark · 03-02-2020 11:13am

creditcarder wrote: »

In fairness, most people imagine airborne in the same sense of a gas leak. As in, a person sneezes and it spreads for miles.

No they don't.

03-02-2020 11:19am

wellwhynot wrote: »

It is worrying. The government had a chance to contain/prevent this arriving here the week before election but that chance is now gone.

I think all people who have been in China in the last 17 days should be banned from entering the country or quarantined (not self quarantined). Other countries have done this so why not us?

Our hospitals would not be able to cope if this virus took hold here and we certainly would not be able to build a new medical facility in a short space of time.

I suspect we have nowhere suitable to quarantine people, and we would not have the capacity to treat a significant outbreak either.

wakka12 · 03-02-2020 11:20am

ardinn wrote: »

Posted a couple of pages back and I posted it a few days ago too but this guy

https://youtu.be/z05ZrMfKUDc

Is probably the best of the lot at the moment on reporting about the virus.

He has uploaded a video every day for the last while and they are all excellent, he is an english doctor, no hype, no bullsh1t, just sitting in his office teaching you about whats happening in very easy to follow ways. He uses only qualified reports from trusted medical journals and the WHO (who he seems to think are too lax on this but is too polite to come out and blast them)

I have been watching him all week, and today, was the first time I have seen him look genuinely worried.

A tldr version of the video above

Death rate will not be calculable until after event (obviously)
R0 number has increased from 2.4 - 2.7
75,000 is a 95% certainty of infected on Jan 25th - johns hopkins report - between 30k and 130k infected jan 25th
Would agree with draconian measures to stop spread of disease in areas where cases are confirmed.

His last 30 seconds were sobering, he has been very upbeat in all videos until today, and was clearly thinking about not saying it, but after explaining the complications arising from the disease, he said if there is large numbers of cases, they would not be able to treat them all.

I've been thinking about this a lot too. It's not the disease I'm worried about per se, but imagine going to a hospital in need, and just being turned away. Nothing they can do, no matter how much they want to. None of the fall backs or safety nets available that we are so used to having in a developed western society, out on your own

wellwhynot · 03-02-2020 11:23am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I suspect we have nowhere suitable to quarantine people, and we would not have the capacity to treat a significant outbreak either.

I agree but if that is the case we should not be allowing people to travel from China to here.

Duke of Url · 03-02-2020 11:23am

Tests show passenger who arrived at Dublin airport does not have coronavirus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/tests-show-passenger-who-arrived-at-dublin-airport-does-not-have-coronavirus-1.4159569

This is why mainstream media were slow to report without facts.

I guess this news will disappoint some people on this thread.

cloudatlas · 03-02-2020 11:28am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Yes it is.

I thought airborne and droplet spread are separate. Maybe not.

cameramonkey · 03-02-2020 11:31am

wakka12 wrote: »

I've been thinking about this a lot too. It's not the disease I'm worried about per se, but imagine going to a hospital in need, and just being turned away. Nothing they can do, no matter how much they want to. None of the fall backs or safety nets available that we are so used to having in a developed western society, out on your own

He is also saying that the outbreak in Wuhan will peek on about 20 April and two weeks later in other Chinese cites. With the numbers doubling up to that date every 6.2 days. That is interesting.

cloudatlas · 03-02-2020 11:32am

wakka12 wrote: »

I've been thinking about this a lot too. It's not the disease I'm worried about per se, but imagine going to a hospital in need, and just being turned away. Nothing they can do, no matter how much they want to. None of the fall backs or safety nets available that we are so used to having in a developed western society, out on your own

He said a lot of positive things about the virus not thriving in hot weather, immunity, containment but folks seemed to have grasped on the negative and there seems to be a lot of negativity on here despite being told the threat is low. I work in a bio corp and if they were worried we’d all know but all the communications we’ve received have been positive.

josip · 03-02-2020 11:35am

Deleted User wrote: »

I suspect we have nowhere suitable to quarantine people, and we would not have the capacity to treat a significant outbreak either.

Any of the uninhabited islands off the west coast would be perfect.
If we were stuck, even Lambay/Ireland's Eye or Dalkey Island would do the job.

PhantomHat · 03-02-2020 11:38am

Duke of Url wrote: »

Tests show passenger who arrived at Dublin airport does not have coronavirus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/tests-show-passenger-who-arrived-at-dublin-airport-does-not-have-coronavirus-1.4159569

This is why mainstream media were slow to report without facts.

I guess this news will disappoint some people on this thread.

Good to hear.
I should hope people aren't disappointed

VinLieger · 03-02-2020 11:38am

Duke of Url wrote: »

Tests show passenger who arrived at Dublin airport does not have coronavirus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/tests-show-passenger-who-arrived-at-dublin-airport-does-not-have-coronavirus-1.4159569

This is why mainstream media were slow to report without facts.

I guess this news will disappoint some people on this thread.

So only 1 test was done? Germany and others have been testing twice as in several cases the first test has been negative but the second positive

Duke of Url · 03-02-2020 11:44am

VinLieger wrote: »

So only 1 test was done? Germany and others have been testing twice as in several cases the first test has been negative but the second positive

And your not questioning why this person was singled out?

givyjoe · 03-02-2020 11:45am

cloudatlas wrote: »

He said a lot of positive things about the virus not thriving in hot weather, immunity, containment but folks seemed to have grasped on the negative and there seems to be a lot of negativity on here despite being told the threat is low. I work in a bio corp and if they were worried we’d all know but all the communications we’ve received have been positive.

Can you clarify who has said this? It literally doesn't stack up with anything thats currently happening. Why did the WHO just declare a Global Health Emergency? Why is so much of China in lockdown? Doesn't really stack up to being low risk.

humberklog · 03-02-2020 11:48am

josip wrote: »

Any of the uninhabited islands off the west coast would be perfect.
If we were stuck, even Lambay/Ireland's Eye or Dalkey Island would do the job.

Lambay is privately owned.

gozunda · 03-02-2020 11:50am

wakka12 wrote: »

I've been thinking about this a lot too. It's not the disease I'm worried about per se, but imagine going to a hospital in need, and just being turned away. Nothing they can do, no matter how much they want to. None of the fall backs or safety nets available that we are so used to having in a developed western society, out on your own

Agreed its not so much the death rate - more so what is required in terms of personnel and resources required to simply look after the sick. Irish hospitals are already at a seasonal bottleneck. Throwing in quarantine and any significant numbers contacting the disease will be hugely problematic. Imho if you are going to get it and have the best chance of recovery - better be at the top of the queue

I think it's also the sense of panic which in part exacerbates many of these problems. In China there are reports of local officials barricading people into their apartments and of people killing pets after they were incorrectly suspected of transmitting the virus. Ironically both types of panicked reaction which happened during the great plague of London.

timmyntc · 03-02-2020 11:50am

josip wrote: »

Any of the uninhabited islands off the west coast would be perfect.
If we were stuck, even Lambay/Ireland's Eye or Dalkey Island would do the job.

You need an island with an airstrip so you can land flights there. Otherwise you're flying them into Dublin, and moving them through Dublin and putting them on a boat, etc.

The whole point of quarantine is to minimize all exposure to the general population.

For Forks Sake · 03-02-2020 11:51am

humberklog wrote: »

Lambay is privately owned.

It also has wallabies : https://www.thejournal.ie/wallabies-lambay-island-2-3516673-Jul2017/

Drumpot · 03-02-2020 11:53am

gozunda wrote: »

Agreed its not so much the death rate - more so the resources in terms of personnel and resources which are required to simply look after the sick. Irish hospitals are already at a seasonal bottleneck. Throwing in quarantine and any significant numbers contacting the disease will be hugely problematic. Imho if you are going to get it and have the best chance of recovery - better be at the top of the queue

I think it's also the sense of panic which in part exacerbates many of these problems. In China there are reports of local officials barricading people into their apartments and of people killing pets after they were incorrectly suspected of transmitting the virus. Ironically both types of panicked reaction which happened during the great plague of London.

You would wonder which is worse, not having much information (or slower movement of information) pre internet or having lots of misinformation that we suffer nowadays so the accurate information is difficult to communicate.

If Trump and Brexit have shown anything it’s how easily misinformation can manipulate the masses.

Quantum Erasure · 03-02-2020 11:55am

What's spike island like?

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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