new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

CrankyHaus

For anyone panicking about a lack of hand sanitiser Aldi still had boxes of the stuff untouched when I was there today.

Nijmegen

CrankyHaus wrote: »

For anyone panicking about a lack of hand sanitiser Aldi still had boxes of the stuff untouched when I was there today.

Pádraig............



...........Get the digger.

Call Me Jimmy

New Lancet peer reviewed modelling study estimates real infections were 78,000 in Wuhan as of Jan 25. That puts it bang in between the 45,000 and 100,000 of two previous estimates.


https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302609.pdf

mad m

Deleted User wrote: »

I would happily take unpaid time off if Vietnam did it. See what happens.

My Daughter is in Hanoi as well at moment teaching kids , finished in May....Wish she was home now to be honest.

ardinn

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

New Lancet peer reviewed modelling study estimates real infections were 78,000 in Wuhan as of Jan 25. That puts it bang in between the 45,000 and 100,000 of two previous estimates.

So the nurse in the video I posted which was taken on the 27th Jan was bang on when she said 90k infected!

Which is terrifying -because if her calculations of 14 people contracting from 1 infected, during the incubation stages are right, then thats armageddon numbers!


Just to clarify the possible numbers ( I realise this is a totally unrealistic maximum of the whole world being in one room coughing on one another - but still)

Day 1 - 1 person
2 - 14
3 - 196
4 - 2744
5 - 38416
6 - 517824
7 - 7,529,536
8 - 105,413,504

Also if you look at the predictions, which have proved to be very underestimated, the predict over 1million dead by feb 22nd. At the rate its spreading, that figure is likely to at least double that.

creditcarder

mad m wrote: »

My Daughter is in Hanoi as well at moment teaching kids , finished in May....Wish she was home now to be honest.

Hmmmm, Thailand/Taiwan has great healthcare if she can get a job there? The danger isn't necesarily the disease, it's the care given

gozunda

creditcarder wrote: »

I love those dudes, but I am a bit put off about their talk of Chinese shilling about likening it to the flue. I mean, it is the flu and it's quite normal to compare them.

I can't tell whether they are getting a teensy bit paranoid, or there is a motive of some kind :P

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwXPeIwV_q4

Fast forward to 27:45. Anyone seen that footage previously? :eek:

Call Me Jimmy

There have been no sources that speculate an r0 of 14! I think there's way too much assumption there, and if it was exponential that incorrect assumption blows up out of all recognition.

Just because she estimated similar order of magnitude infected, doesn't mean she (or the modelling estimates) are right about everything (especially 14 infected for one person)

ardinn

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

There have been no sources that speculate an r0 of 14! I think there's way too much assumption there, and if it was exponential that incorrect assumption blows up out of all recognition.

Just because she estimated similar order of magnitude infected, doesn't mean she (or the modelling estimates) are right about everything (especially 14 infected for one person)

What I said was, With the peer review estimating 75,000 on the 25th, and her saying 90,000 on the 27th - then she is credible. She goes on to say the chinese gvmnt are not telling the truth, and goes on to state a 1/14 ratio.

So there is a source for one, a nurse in the epicenter of the whole thing proved right at least once! The calculations as I said are worst case scenario, but gives a feel of just how quickly this could go haywire

ceadaoin.

The first Canadian patient has now been discharged from hospital. They wouldn't do that if there were still traces of the virus in his system. His wife also has it but is at home with mild symptoms. The first US patient is also due to be discharged in the next couple of days. Not one of the north american cases has been serious as of yet. I think this lends credence to the theory that, for most, this is a mild illness. There are doubtless thousands of such cases in China who are just getting on with things at home and not being diagnosed. That means that the complication and fatality rate is exaggerated because the only people being counted are those who are sick enough to need treatment.

Call Me Jimmy

ardinn wrote: »

What I said was, With the peer review estimating 75,000 on the 25th, and her saying 90,000 on the 27th - then she is credible. She goes on to say the chinese gvmnt are not telling the truth, and goes on to state a 1/14 ratio.

So there is a source for one, a nurse in the epicenter of the whole thing proved right at least once! The calculations as I said are worst case scenario, but gives a feel of just how quickly this could go haywire

Yea it is defo not good, as Xi said 'grave'. When I first came on here I was sure Wuhan was facing a serious problem, if the numbers are accurate then it really is in horrible situation.

Muir

ardinn wrote: »

What I said was, With the peer review estimating 75,000 on the 25th, and her saying 90,000 on the 27th - then she is credible. She goes on to say the chinese gvmnt are not telling the truth, and goes on to state a 1/14 ratio.

So there is a source for one, a nurse in the epicenter of the whole thing proved right at least once! The calculations as I said are worst case scenario, but gives a feel of just how quickly this could go haywire

The study has estimated an R0 value of 2.68.

sondagefaux

creditcarder wrote: »

Were they in Wuhan? If not, that is a quick spread I must admit, but, knowing the germans, it wouldn't suprise me if they were self taking temperature for 14 days.

No. A group of Chinese people from Wuhan visited the premises of this German company a couple of weeks back.

This is the reason why German employees of this company have got the virus.

Ficheall

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The first Canadian patient has now been discharged from hospital. They wouldn't do that if there were still traces of the virus in his system. His wife also has it but is at home with mild symptoms.

So does he stay in quarantine at home now too until she is better?

ceadaoin.

Ficheall wrote: »

So does he stay in quarantine at home now too until she is better?

Yes. Actually I was wrong, he still has the virus but has been deemed well enough to go home and self isolate. I'm sure public health officials will still be monitoring them regularly for any changes. At least you'd hope so!

peddlelies

Apologies if already posted, here's a map of infections that updates in real time

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Carol25

I’ve been following this thread with interest from the beginning of hearing about this outbreak. A few things that concern me about how people are reacting to this news is the naivety of some posters on here to believe all that the Chinese government is saying.
Firstly the figures should be taken with a pinch of salt and are essentially meaningless until we’ve a clear picture of just how many people were infected and how many have been ‘cremated’ and whose deaths are not being counted as being the virus. The current figures are being used to calculate death rates, forecasting future infections, etc when essentially we’ve no idea if they’re in any way accurate.
Not to mention other health workers saying they were told to put down pneumonia as the cause of death on multiple death certificates and not Coronavirus. Some good news is anyone who’s contracted the virus outside of China is currently alive.
However Ireland has a huge proportion of asthmatics, and other lung conditions. People should not be told this virus is is ‘self-cure’ like I heard on the news yesterday. There will be no trust in authorities if it does arrive here and is much worse than some believe.

Fr_Dougal

peddlelies wrote: »

Apologies if already posted, here's a map of infections that updates in real time

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It’s not real time:

As of Jan 30, 2020 9:30 pm EST

creditcarder

Man, them flying the people back to Wuhan is rough. On one level, face or not, I like it as it's almost apologising, but can you imagine flying in to a smoggy qurantined city with a virus.

Edit: Also, it's not voluntary :P It's supposedly voluntary, but when you have family back in China, you can't really say it is

peddlelies

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

It’s not real time:

True that, but it's still a good representation of current events.

Call Me Jimmy

Carol I think a lot of people's minds will be changed when the inflection point hits in Wuhan / Hubei, when the deceit and immorality of CCP is shoved in the world's face.

sondagefaux

Extract from an email newsletter I got today:

Some of you will know Coco (my wife) and our China agent... Coco was with me in Spain until the 15th of January, when she flew to China to be with her family in her home town in Jiangxi province. She got home to Yiwu (where our office and warehouse is) and then drove to the home town. Because of the Chinese New Year an epic drive 16 hours - half a billion people go home at this time.. Once home, the celebrations for New Year began.. and then abruptly ended as the Corona virus problem engulfed the area.

Jaingxi province is next to Wuhan and at first people there thought the issue was far away, but as each day passes it gets more immediate. The last 5 days Coco and her immediate family have not left the house. Police cars drive up and down the one street village telling residents to remain in doors, last week four cases were reported in the nearby city of Dongxiang and yesterday a case in the next village just along the road. I speak to Coco every day, and she is upbeat and cheerful, but today I can see the strain on her face, she no longer believes the government news feed, it's worse much worse than they say.

The thing is - I should be there. It's the first time in 7 years I have not been in China for CNY. Thanks to Brexit and our new Spain company, I decided to stay in Europe.
...

Practical problem is that, no factories are going to open anytime soon in China, CNY has already been extended. All the roads and trains between cities are closed or suspended. So it's unlikely that any China products will arrive in Europe until at least June. So I think there will be a significant hit to China stock.

creditcarder

sondagefaux wrote: »

Extract from an email newsletter I got today:

Some of you will know Coco (my wife) and our China agent... Coco was with me in Spain until the 15th of January, when she flew to China to be with her family in her home town in Jiangxi province. She got home to Yiwu (where our office and warehouse is) and then drove to the home town. Because of the Chinese New Year an epic drive 16 hours - half a billion people go home at this time.. Once home, the celebrations for New Year began.. and then abruptly ended as the Corona virus problem engulfed the area.

Jaingxi province is next to Wuhan and at first people there thought the issue was far away, but as each day passes it gets more immediate. The last 5 days Coco and her immediate family have not left the house. Police cars drive up and down the one street village telling residents to remain in doors, last week four cases were reported in the nearby city of Dongxiang and yesterday a case in the next village just along the road. I speak to Coco every day, and she is upbeat and cheerful, but today I can see the strain on her face, she no longer believes the government news feed, it's worse much worse than they say.

The thing is - I should be there. It's the first time in 7 years I have not been in China for CNY. Thanks to Brexit and our new Spain company, I decided to stay in Europe.
...

Practical problem is that, no factories are going to open anytime soon in China, CNY has already been extended. All the roads and trains between cities are closed or suspended. So it's unlikely that any China products will arrive in Europe until at least June. So I think there will be a significant hit to China stock.

Hmmm, and manufacturing has moved to Vietnam

fritzelly

peddlelies wrote: »

True that, but it's still a good representation of current events.

Updated regularly

https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf#news

Oranage2

fritzelly wrote: »

Updated regularly

https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf#news

Scary numbers

theguzman

The coronavirus has been detected in Queens, New York. Major Irish expat communities there, it is now to be found in all our neighbours, UK, France and New York albeit further away.

VinLieger

theguzman wrote: »

The coronavirus has been detected in Queens, New York. Major Irish expat communities there, it is now to be found in all our neighbours, UK, France and New York albeit further away.

The queens case hasnt been confirmed yet

catrat12

Anyone see that ucd whattsapp

4068ac1elhodqr

Driver of 'Horseman (coach name) of the apocalypse didn't get the memo: to wear a hazsuit.
When driving the dozens off flight in Eng over to quarantine earlier today:



The other 3 or so drivers of the horseman coaches didn't have any either.
Probably had to fill out an expense form and put down a deposit.

catrat12

Another question is anything been done in Ireland at the ports or airports and what is happening anyone travelling from China to Ireland at the moment