new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

babybuilder · 02-02-2020 11:34PM

https://youtu.be/z05ZrMfKUDc

This is an English medical consultant.

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 11:34PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Very low number discharged

It is quite a bit more than usual. It's the first day in a while where number of discharged was considerably more than the number of new deaths

igCorcaigh · 02-02-2020 11:37PM

wakka12 wrote: »

It is quite a bit more than usual. It's the first day in a while where number of discharged was considerably more than the number of new deaths

Well yes, but overall I'm concerned that until cases are resolved either way, we can't get a handle on true cfr.

Duke of Url · 02-02-2020 11:38PM

When the true numbers of people with the virus are confirmed, I would guess that the death rate will fall from 2% to 0.2 % equal to the flu.

Just guessing of course.

Call Me Jimmy · 02-02-2020 11:41PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

When the true numbers of people with the virus are confirmed, I would guess that the death rate will fall from 2% to 0.2 % equal to the flu.

Just guessing of course.

That assumes the death count is accurate now. In Wuhan, Hubei right now there's just no way any of them are true numbers

Kermit.de.frog · 02-02-2020 11:41PM

This tweeter saying Dublin case is false alarm.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1224077135024918528

No way to verify yet though.

PhantomHat · 02-02-2020 11:45PM

babybuilder wrote: »

https://youtu.be/z05ZrMfKUDc

This is an English medical consultant.

He's great explaining about the outbreak and giving updates. A very knowledgeable chap.

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 11:45PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

When the true numbers of people with the virus are confirmed, I would guess that the death rate will fall from 2% to 0.2 % equal to the flu.

Just guessing of course.

It does seem completely possible given how many cases are probably going unnoticed
But at the same time
The number of critically ill and severe cases are growing by several hundred daily for weeks now, and those numbers are just growing in a sustained manner rather than pleateauing...that doesnt happen with flu, a flu does not overwhelm health infrastructure in such a short space of time, the numbers rise and fall, not build indefinitely

macapaca · 02-02-2020 11:47PM

wakka12 wrote: »

I.....that doesnt happen with flu, a flu does not overwhelm health infrastructure in such a short space of time

....with the exception of the HSE of course

wakka12 · 02-02-2020 11:51PM

I wonder when the number of cases in Wuhan will begin to not reach the daily maximum testing limit of what appears to be around 2100, I would have thought quaratine and everyone being inside would almost completely stop the virus

PhantomHat · 03-02-2020 12:23AM

https://twitter.com/CoronaVirusFlu/status/1224080381844115456?s=19

Some good news for a change. Hopefully this 'cure' can be verified and implemented

screamer · 03-02-2020 12:29AM

PhantomHat wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CoronaVirusFlu/status/1224080381844115456?s=19

Some good news for a change. Hopefully this 'cure' can be verified and implemented

Bout time, I was wondering if they were using the anti retro virals or whatever they’re called. Problem of course is, there won’t be enough stock for the millions of people in China alone who’ll need them.

creditcarder · 03-02-2020 12:32AM

I would trust Thailand tbh.

Wow, how convenient that there is a good cure in such a short amount of time. It's like there was information already from maybe...research?

Ah well, if it's true, China deserves applause for volunteering the information.

Darc19 · 03-02-2020 12:33AM

PhantomHat wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CoronaVirusFlu/status/1224080381844115456?s=19

Some good news for a change. Hopefully this 'cure' can be verified and implemented

Be very very careful, this is a daily mail story.

Most likely not true

fritzelly · 03-02-2020 12:34AM

Highly questionable sources
And HIV drugs certainly do not work that fast - takes months to get the viral load undetectable i.e. not cured but undetectable

ceadaoin. · 03-02-2020 12:37AM

So those are questionable sources but unverified videos posted on twitter are totally not? Ok then.

It's almost like some people want this to be really bad and wont hear any good news.

Here is another source

https://www.france24.com/en/20200202-thailand-sees-apparent-success-treating-virus-with-drug-cocktail

Thailand look to be having a good success rate with this treatment

Thailand so far has detected 19 confirmed cases of the virus believed to have originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, which is under lockdown.

That is the second most number of cases outside of China, with Japan recording 20.

So far, eight patients in Thailand have recovered and returned home, while 11 remain in hospital.

I have some unused oseltamivir from last year, now I just need to get my hands on the others and I'll be grand

Call Me Jimmy · 03-02-2020 12:41AM

Think they did similar with the first case in the US when he was getting worse for the wear. Not sure if it was exact same meds.

fritzelly · 03-02-2020 12:42AM

One test case that recovered does not equal a cure because someone fed them a mixture of drugs
China reported the same a few days ago or so but nothing heard about it since

Call Me Jimmy · 03-02-2020 12:43AM

fritzelly wrote: »

One test case that recovered does not equal a cure because someone fed them a mixture of drugs
China reported the same a few days ago or so but nothing heard about it since

It's not a cure, it's just when people have gotten pretty bad a couple of times they've been given anti-virals and it helped. Oxygen helps too at that stage, who would have thought. But anything that helps is good news.

fritzelly · 03-02-2020 12:48AM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

It's not a cure, it's just when people have gotten pretty bad a couple of times they've been given anti-virals and it helped. Oxygen helps too at that stage, who would have thought.

It's a fluff piece to get 15 minutes of fame - why only one patient, others were released after recovering
Until there is a controlled trial it should be dismissed.

rossie1977 · 03-02-2020 12:50AM

There isn't going to be a cure for a virus like this. We don't have a cure for common cold or the flu after all this time. Flu vaccine is only partially effective at best, in truth it puts people at ease more than offering protection.

Each persons immune system will deal with the virus in slightly different ways. Reading recently about how the flu reacts so different in people. A mid 20s bodybuilder with no medical history saw the flu turn his immune system into overdrive thus killing him quite quickly.

Dante7 · 03-02-2020 12:54AM

rossie1977 wrote: »

There isn't going to be a cure for a virus like this. We don't have a cure for common cold or the flu after all this time. Flu vaccine is only partially effective at best, in truth it puts people at ease more than offering protection.

Each persons immune system will deal with the virus in slightly different ways. Reading recently about how the flu reacts so different in people. A mid 20s bodybuilder with no medical history saw the flu turn his immune system into overdrive thus killing him quite quickly.

Another clown post that has no idea how viruses or vaccines work.

fritzelly · 03-02-2020 12:58AM

Nearly another 600 positive cases added to the days total

Kermit.de.frog · 03-02-2020 01:00AM

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1224115338389815297

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1224081265587978240

Sierra Oscar · 03-02-2020 03:15AM

Chinese markets have opened in the last hour for the first time since the Lunar New Year following the outbreak. They've currently tanked 7%. The economic impact of this will be profound.

Chinese markets plummet beyond 7% amid virus fears on first trading day after Lunar New Year holiday

Quantum Erasure · 03-02-2020 03:32AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1224147479152689153/

Yurt2 · 03-02-2020 03:50AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Chinese markets have opened in the last hour for the first time since the Lunar New Year following the outbreak. They've currently tanked 7%. The economic impact of this will be profound.

Chinese markets plummet beyond 7% amid virus fears on first trading day after Lunar New Year holiday

Commodities trading suspended in Shanghai in the last few minutes according to Guardian.

This won't be pretty, the average urban Chinese punter (taxi driver, housewife) love a flutter on the stock market - huge average Joe exposure to a bloodbath on the market.

ardinn · 03-02-2020 05:29AM

Posted a couple of pages back and I posted it a few days ago too but this guy

https://youtu.be/z05ZrMfKUDc

Is probably the best of the lot at the moment on reporting about the virus.

He has uploaded a video every day for the last while and they are all excellent, he is an english doctor, no hype, no bullsh1t, just sitting in his office teaching you about whats happening in very easy to follow ways. He uses only qualified reports from trusted medical journals and the WHO (who he seems to think are too lax on this but is too polite to come out and blast them)

I have been watching him all week, and today, was the first time I have seen him look genuinely worried.

A tldr version of the video above

Death rate will not be calculable until after event (obviously)
R0 number has increased from 2.4 - 2.7
75,000 is a 95% certainty of infected on Jan 25th - johns hopkins report - between 30k and 130k infected jan 25th
Would agree with draconian measures to stop spread of disease in areas where cases are confirmed.

His last 30 seconds were sobering, he has been very upbeat in all videos until today, and was clearly thinking about not saying it, but after explaining the complications arising from the disease, he said if there is large numbers of cases, they would not be able to treat them all.

03-02-2020 06:09AM

Latest case today in Vietnam brings it to eight officially. She was in Wuhan and is a colleague of three others who have it. They all returned to Vietnam on the 17th January, her co-workers tested positive last Friday, and her today.

Feels like the next week will give proper indication of how big this will be globally. All these people who have gone around the world from China should be reaching the end of potential incubation periods and people they've infected since landing will be starting to show.

Tet communal meals are so conducive to spreading disease. You're always using your own chopsticks and spoon to get stuff out of bowls in the middle.

Eg.

cloudatlas · 03-02-2020 07:23AM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Ebola is not airborne so it's spread is very limited and tends to stay localised. This is highly infectious by the looks of it. If its mortality rate gets anywhere near SARS or MERS we're fcukd.

This isn’t ‘airborne’ either.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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