new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

circadian

Current statistics have 9,776 confirmed infections, 213 deaths and 187 recoveries.

This is looking OK at the moment considering it'll probably take longer to recover than die from this so I'd expect parity in terms of death/recovery within the next week. I guess the next few weeks will really show how much this has spread and I'd say the quarantine has had a significant effect on limiting the spread, outside of China at least. If infections continue to rise I can see most airlines refusing to fly to China and possibly countries restricting entry from China for a short period of time.

I hope this will start to peak now and that the recoveries begin to outpace deaths but we'll see, so much is unknown at this point in time.

pc7

Dr McConkey was on newstalk this morning, said 20k figure as mentioned in thread as worst case scenario. At this stage won’t be cancelling the election or valentines, but may cancel travel around Easter if required.

So glad to see Ben Kavanagh get out of dodge.

Duke of Url

Podge_irl wrote: »

Knowing the number of infected people involves aggregating masses of data and analysing it. A nurse wouldn't have the first clue beyond how many people in her hospital maybe are infected. Being "on the ground" is actually a pretty awful way of estimating numbers.

You would need to go door to door in Wuhan with test kits to get an accurate number of infected people.

I still believe that 99% of people infected haven't gone to the Hospital due to mild symptoms hence this people will not show up on the confirmed count.

Duke of Url

pc7 wrote: »

Dr McConkey was on newstalk this morning, said 20k figure as mentioned in thread as worst case scenario. At this stage won’t be cancelling the election or valentines, but may cancel travel around Easter if required.

So glad to see Ben Kavanagh get out of dodge.

The thing is he cant possibly estimate these numbers.

Sure worst case could be 10 all the way to 1m.

I hope 99% of the infected haven't gone to the hospital. Great news for the stats.

volchitsa

Duke of Url wrote: »

You would need to go door to door in Wuhan with test kits to get an accurate number of infected people.

I still believe that 99% of people infected haven't gone to the Hospital due to mild symptoms hence this people will not show up on the confirmed count.

If that's so, then doesn't that mean it's a lot less dangerous than people fear, in fact closer to flu, which has a huge number of deaths just because it's so widespread, ie a very small number of those of get it actually die.

Dante7

Two cases of Coronavirus have been confirmed in England.

frillyleaf

Happyilylost wrote: »

From working in the HSE all I can say is there is daily drop in information sessions in relation to this virus in the hospital I work in. Anyone presenting with flu (which you have to remember is a lot) are now screened and background history established to see would they have any link to the coronavirus.

That is great this happening! Are they isolated from other people in waiting rooms if suspected to have the virus?

Are there any facilities in Ireland to quarantine people if needed such as Uk and other countries?

Yurt2

frillyleaf wrote: »

That is great this happening! Are they isolated from other people in waiting rooms if suspected to have the virus?

Are there any facilities in Ireland to quarantine people if needed such as Uk and other countries?

We could put them on the Jeanie Johnston on quays and have them role play the whole coffin ship thing for American tourists. It's perfect, they already have the consumption.



*joke before anyone lays into me*

Duke of Url

volchitsa wrote: »

If that's so, then doesn't that mean it's a lot less dangerous than people fear, in fact closer to flu, which has a huge number of deaths just because it's so widespread, ie a very small number of those of get it actually die.

Im not saying its not dangerous. All virus's are dangerous to people with previous medical conditions and some without medical conditions.

The Common Cold is a Killer virus to some people.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/strategy-in-place-to-contain-any-irish-coronavirus-cases-chief-medical-office-says-978904.html

Apparently we have a plan of action should the virus arrive on our lovely shores.

volchitsa

volchitsa wrote: »

If that's so, then doesn't that mean it's a lot less dangerous than people fear, in fact closer to flu, which has a huge number of deaths just because it's so widespread, ie a very small number of those of get it actually die.

Unless there's heaps of people dead or close to dying inside their apartments because nobody checked in on them... You gotta bear in mind that a large percentage of any tier 1/2 city population will be people from the countryside, whose own families will often be far away.

However, there's no actual evidence of this happening yet.

Podge_irl wrote: »

Knowing the number of infected people involves aggregating masses of data and analysing it. A nurse wouldn't have the first clue beyond how many people in her hospital maybe are infected. Being "on the ground" is actually a pretty awful way of estimating numbers.

Depends on her role. It's usually the nurses that take care of the administration within hospitals, which would be tallying those details so that they can update the Party representatives.

At the same time though, I doubt any Chinese person would be stupid enough to use their phone to post such information. She'd be done for treason if caught, and most Chinese phones are tracked with firmware, as do most Chinese apps pass info to government agencies. She'd have to be suicidal to think she'd get away with it long-term.

Oranage2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/strategy-in-place-to-contain-any-irish-coronavirus-cases-chief-medical-office-says-978904.html

Apparently we have a plan of action should the virus arrive on our lovely shores.

Time to brush the dust of the iodine tablets.

Ficheall

What's the logic behind the NHS not disclosing the confirmed cases' location?

Virus in the UK:

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1223177211718619136?s=19

weldoninhio

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Just once its not you or anyone you care about though right?

No one gets out of life alive. If it's me or anyone I know/care about it there won't be much I can do about it. C'est La Vie.

Yurt2

Ficheall wrote: »

What's the logic behind the NHS not disclosing the confirmed cases' location?

Probably wise as the British red-tops would go ape and stoke hysteria against Asians in whatever city it is in.


OXFORD CHINAMAN DEATH VIRUS SHOCKA! BORIS SAYS: 'DON'T LOOK AT ASIANS IN THE EYES!'

Ficheall

Yurt! wrote: »

Probably wise as the British red-tops would go ape and stoke hysteria against Asians in whatever city it is in.


OXFORD CHINAMAN DEATH VIRUS SHOCKA! BORIS SAYS: 'DON'T LOOK AT ASIANS IN THE EYES!'

Right, but now it's the whole country that will be on edge.

cloudatlas

wylo wrote: »

Selfish side of me would rather see all evacuees go to the one place, like a small island, far far from everyone for 2 weeks until the (potential) virus is gone from their system.

They are going into quarantine when they get to the UK. Fair play to the u.k helping Irish citizens. Australians are being flown to Christmas Island.

Yurt2

cloudatlas wrote: »

They are going into quarantine when they get to the UK. Fair play to the u.k helping Irish citizens. Australians are being flown to Christmas Island.

I'd say they billed the Irish government for whatever Irish craythurs got on the flight anyway.

HeidiHeidi

Last I heard the Irish government were looking for seats on an Air France plane?


Did that change?

ETA - ah, should've watched the video first.

pc7

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Last I heard the Irish government were looking for seats on an Air France plane?


Did that change?

Yeah Ben Kavanagh did a video saying they were offered seats on uk evacuation plane, so he got that one.

GooglePlus

They were going to send Ryanair to collect our lads but they were over the baggage allowence in the end.

VinLieger

Ficheall wrote: »

What's the logic behind the NHS not disclosing the confirmed cases' location?

Avoiding panic, which makes sense, i would however like to know details like were they in wuhan or is it from somewhere else?

BeerWolf

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/30/disabled-teenager-in-china-dies-at-home-alone-after-relatives-quarantined

That is just so unforgivably sad...

Snow Garden

Ficheall wrote: »

Right, but now it's the whole country that will be on edge.

No not really. Only the worriers.

creditcarder

Yeah, I like ADVChina, but I think they have turned a little bit paranoid about the whole flu vs coronavirus comparision. You know, about the fact that it is Chinese propraganda copy and pasting :P



I don't blame them, I guess, but just funny.

All the measures from schools in Hanoi coming out. Masks, temp checks etc. Starting to feel a bit more real now. Both friends back from China are indefinitely off so both staying here.

I'm far from panic but teaching 30 kids in masks while wearing one will be a bit surreal.

creditcarder

Deleted User wrote: »

All the measures from schools in Hanoi coming out. Masks, temp checks etc. Starting to feel a bit more real now. Both friends back from China are indefinitely off so both staying here.

I'm far from panic but teaching 30 kids in masks while wearing one will be a bit surreal.

Hmmmm, how's the hanoi heat as a sidenote?

Nijmegen

Deleted User wrote: »

All the measures from schools in Hanoi coming out. Masks, temp checks etc. Starting to feel a bit more real now. Both friends back from China are indefinitely off so both staying here.

I'm far from panic but teaching 30 kids in masks while wearing one will be a bit surreal.

Mind yourself and I hope it all goes well.