White Xmas 2004

ninebeanrows · 23-12-2004 8:00pm

Earthman may i ask have you been to Bratislavia i used
to live there as a young one well for about 6 months!

Although the Irish Met forecast may not have inspired
you with confidence i am still very confident that bands
of snow sshowers will push south on Xmas eve night and
again on Christmas Day. I think Dublin could see upto
5cm's of snow

I dont think that southern coasts
will be cold enough for snow but further inland it will be.
Western and Norhtrn areas will be affected by accumalations
of snow of upto 20cm's. Happy Xmas all

ninebeanrows · 23-12-2004 8:03pm

I must also add that the radar will be our best friend late tomorrow
on seeing whether snow will be widspread. I also think that the Irish
Met are underestimating rainfall across Southern parts tomorrow morning
and into the afternoon which will turn to sleet on it back edge as i moves
south

23-12-2004 8:13pm

Speaking of Met Éireann I notice they have updated their severe weather advisory and taken out the bit about heavy accumilations...

They are now saying snow may lie in places which means they're not expecting significant falls.

Yes I was in Bratislava on Sunday, just to do a last bit of Xmas shopping as all the shops in Vienna were shut.
It still has the air of communism about it as you can see it for all it's high rise appartment buildings for a while before you get there.
The slovakians are the cute ones though, they are just across the border as near to Austria as Newry is to Dundalk and about a 50 min drive from vienna they had all their centres open and they were packed out.

Supercell · 23-12-2004 8:15pm

Weathercheck wrote:

I think Dublin could see upto
5cm's of snow I dont think that southern coasts
will be cold enough for snow but further inland it will be.
Western and Norhtrn areas will be affected by accumalations
of snow of upto 20cm's. Happy Xmas all

5cm's in Dublin is a possibility if the showers make it to here in numbers..its a slim chance but definately is one..as you say all eyes on the radar images tomorrow

ninebeanrows · 23-12-2004 8:26pm

I thought to cheer you up from dying of pessimism i'll show
you a few fax charts below in order are the 36h, 48hr and
60hr charts. The first trough will push south tomorrow night
the second Christmas morning and then eastern areas may be
affected by a quasi-stationary trough

http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/brack0a.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/brack1.gif
http://129.13.102.67/wz/pics/brack1a.gif

Enjoy and remember theres a good possibility of a widespread WHITE
Christmas could we ask for much more

Im confident that Dublin will see a dusting come Christmas morning
at least and if thats all i get i'll be happy

Im looking
forward to seeing one of those squally heavy snow showers
with the major chance of 2 prolonged bands moving south

Scubadevils · 23-12-2004 9:28pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Im looking
forward to seeing one of those squally heavy snow showers
with the major chance of 2 prolonged bands moving south

You reckon these might hit the east coast? - beginning to feel we wont see the snow in Dublin

I want snow that compacts under your feet and you cant see the ground

23-12-2004 9:35pm

Felixdhc wrote:

I want snow that compacts under your feet and you cant see the ground

Oh that lovely crunch feeling as you walk in it

Well if you don't see it in your neck of the woods, just head up to Lamb Doyles, or better johnny foxes there should be plenty up there.

Gonzo · 24-12-2004 12:03am

Felixdhc wrote:

You reckon these might hit the east coast? - beginning to feel we wont see the snow in Dublin
I want snow that compacts under your feet and you cant see the ground

my feelings exactly.... even if we get a dusting i'll be gutted... at this stage with the talk of 'severe snow' and an onslaught of fancy snow charts on these boards over the past month or more I think most posters here will be really dissapointed if its not some sort of a decent fall... a few flurries is not gonna set anyones world on fire... it wud need to be at least 2 or 3 inchs deep at the minimum to be deemed a success, no blades of grass showing thru the snow etc... and hard compact snow/ice on the roads, it wud also have to cover most of the country to have any great effect rather than just a few coastal fringes of the west and northern ireland.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 12:11am

Well Gonzo its inevitable that your going to be disappointed then!
This cold spell aint anything special in its own right but
its timing is supreme!

Just to focus on the east coast, confidence is beginning
to grow that eastern areas north of say Wicklow can expect
a prolonged period of snow around 6pm on Saturday. It is associated
with a developing feature north of northern Ireland. Eastern
Northern Ireland will be hit hard with upto 6 inches of snow likely.

Another period for possible snow in the East is later tomorrow
night as a trough moves throught the country.

Heres how i see it for Dublin and Eastern counties
of Wicklow, Dublin, Meathe and Louth. On Xmas
morning we should wake upto a light dusting of snow
possibly 1cm but showers will pack in prolonged
snow over Northern Ireland and slowly tricle down the
east coast. It will be a close run situation and at the moment
only areas north of Wicklow will be affected and no more
than 60 miles inland form the east coast. Upto 10cm's may
fall from this feature around Dublin and more further north
please stay tuned to forecasts to watch for development
of this feature as it could get very bad in these locations
late on Christmas

Danno · 24-12-2004 1:50am

Looks like a 120 mile wide strip from Tyrone to Kilkenny is gonna get the snow... :cool:

Scubadevils · 24-12-2004 2:19am

Not looking good for Dublin then:(

Danno · 24-12-2004 2:25am

I dunno about the reliability of those charts though, they seem to chop and change a bit!

Scubadevils · 24-12-2004 2:28am

I hope so, its recking my head now, roll on Saturday and be done with it! (until the next snow heads our way:) )

Danno · 24-12-2004 2:33am

Looks like Laois will get some snow, we'd get more if we could shift the slieve bloom mtns though - esp in this weather set- up

Scubadevils · 24-12-2004 2:37am

I lived in Portarlington until about two years ago, should have stayed:)
Was just out for a smoke, getting very cold out, wonder what the temp is

Danno · 24-12-2004 2:55am

portarlington is a good location for snow i think

Danno · 24-12-2004 3:00am

[URL=http://]http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=33647[/URL]

got a topic on here, why not join in!

Trotter · 24-12-2004 4:35am

I still reckon it'll snow in Waterford. Mainly because of how dedicated Ive been at crossing my fingers all these years.

Agent Smith · 24-12-2004 4:57am

i've been waiting 19 years for it to snow in Killiney at christmas

billy the squid · 24-12-2004 5:19am

what are the prospects for limerick, the city , we rarely get snow as it is but at christmas that would be a miracle.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 9:29am

Lads its time to watch the radar and temps, the chances of snow
in Dublin are alot higher than has been shown the GFS model shows
quite intense precipitation over the region tomorrow afternoon
and showers should begin to affect here later tonight so a dusting
is likely by morning. Later Xmas day is when the proper snow is expected

24-12-2004 9:34am

billy the squid wrote:

what are the prospects for limerick, the city , we rarely get snow as it is but at christmas that would be a miracle.

Higher prospects than Dublin

24-12-2004 9:38am

Weathercheck wrote:

Well Gonzo its inevitable that your going to be disappointed then!
This cold spell aint anything special in its own right but
its timing is supreme!

Just to focus on the east coast, confidence is beginning
to grow that eastern areas north of say Wicklow can expect
a prolonged period of snow around 6pm on Saturday. It is associated
with a developing feature north of northern Ireland. Eastern
Northern Ireland will be hit hard with upto 6 inches of snow likely.

Another period for possible snow in the East is later tomorrow
night as a trough moves throught the country.

Heres how i see it for Dublin and Eastern counties
of Wicklow, Dublin, Meathe and Louth. On Xmas
morning we should wake upto a light dusting of snow
possibly 1cm but showers will pack in prolonged
snow over Northern Ireland and slowly tricle down the
east coast. It will be a close run situation and at the moment
only areas north of Wicklow will be affected and no more
than 60 miles inland form the east coast. Upto 10cm's may
fall from this feature around Dublin and more further north
please stay tuned to forecasts to watch for development
of this feature as it could get very bad in these locations
late on Christmas

Heh he's at it again, no snow in wicklow because I'm from there-how childish

The Muppet · 24-12-2004 9:53am

Weathercheck wrote:

Lads its time to watch the radar and temps, the chances of snow
in Dublin are alot higher than has been shown the GFS model shows
quite intense precipitation over the region tomorrow afternoon
and showers should begin to affect here later tonight so a dusting
is likely by morning. Later Xmas day is when the proper snow is expected

Cool. Fingers crossed so.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 9:54am

I actually didnt pick Wiclow on purpous!!

Dublin's chances are good in my eyes lets see
before commenting i think we could see lots
of snow tomorrow night

Lets keep our eyes on the radar from this evening

Bands of snow showers will affect ALL of Ireland

24-12-2004 10:32am

Weathercheck wrote:

I actually didnt pick Wiclow on purpous!!

No I'm sure you didn't

(It doesn't matter a hoot to me tbh) but I would like at least a sprinkling(pardon the pun) of reality here.
Places like roundwood Laragh, Blessington and other high areas of county wicklow will see a lot more snow accumilation than coastal or sea level parts of Dublin on Xmas Day.
The system passing through today could deposit an inch or two up there in passing for instance when all the greater Dublin area will see is rain or sleet.

As for tomorrow for snow lovers it's all to play for. One thing is certain the west and the North and the south west are going to see a lot of heavy snow showers.

As for the stuff coming out of Northern Ireland, remember that the wind is initially North west but then turns more northerly thats either going to keep much of the activity moving out into the Irish sea before it hits Dublin or keep it moving south in the Irish sea for a direct hit on North Wales, they are going to get hammered.

I'm not ruling out a snow fall for Dublin, there will be some, but it all depends on how extensive the shower build up is further north and whether there is enough of it to blow down towards Dublin as well as the bulk of it moving out over the Irish sea in it's journey to wales.
If the shower build up is big enough, then there could be a significant dusting in Dublin. Nothing is certain though and thats why Met Éireann are being cautious giving little or no snow fall in the East.
I'm inclined to err on their experienced side rather than go all out to say theres gonna be several cm's in Dublin.
After all they've been doing this for decades.
If you weathercheck get it mostly wrong for Dublin, all you'll get is a few ha ha ha's here on this site.

Met Éireann on the other hand have people relying on the accuracy of their forecasts(farmers and fishermen for example) which on the whole are reliable.
If they started getting carried away each time by the excitement of what might happen as opposed to what they think probably will happen, eventually no one would listen to them.
Mind you you're young yet at 15 weathercheck and your enthusiasm is a brilliant thing to see

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 11:25am

Thanks Earthman

Metcheck have released where they think snow will be:
http://www.metcheck.com/index.asp

They only indicate major towns that will see snow

Hey hey a Quote from it

The following areas can expect to see a chance of snowfall on Christmas Day :-

- Aberdeen (Morning)
- Belfast (Morning / Evening)
- Cardiff (Morning)
- Dublin (All Day)
- Edinburgh (Morning)
- Glasgow (Afternoon)
- London (Evening)
- Manchester (All Day)
- Milton Keynes (Morning / Evening)
- Nottingham (Afternoon)
- Oxford (Evening)
- Plymouth (Evening)
- West Wales (All Day)

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 11:31am

First trough now viewable to the northwest of Ireland

http://www.metoffice.com/satpics/latest_uk_ir.jpg

24-12-2004 11:32am

Ok.
Malin head now reporting sleet and 3 degree's.
I'm fairly confident that the current rain band will dump snow on the high ground at its back edge.
It may even fall to lower ground way up north but certaily high ground in places like Antrim, the mournes and the dublin and wicklow mountains are going to see some snow on the back edge of this.
Rain or sleet at lower levels in Dublin though from this.

CrowdedHouse · 24-12-2004 11:35am

5.3 C 996 hPa Wet and miserable !

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 11:48am

Temperatures beginnin to tumble across the entire
country as the front progresses south heres a radar
pic:
http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/radar/index.html

The Back edge may turn to sleet and the Dublin Mountains
look like they may turn white before it clears...good stuff.

Also interesting develoments south of Iceland:
Do you have any views on this Earthman, there
are two well defined troughs associated with the
feature

What do people make of the latest fax chart:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
That little low pressure northwest of Ireland
looks interesting????

infrarosso4_2004-12-24%2010:00:00.jpg

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 12:38pm

Latest fax chart indicate that later tonight a trough
will push across the country giving most area at least
a dusting of the white stuff. Another trough will approach
the north and affect Northern, Central and Eastern areas
around PM tomorrow

24-12-2004 12:53pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Also interesting develoments south of Iceland:
Do you have any views on this Earthman, there
are two well defined troughs associated with the
feature

Well current indications are for Rain by sunday nigh and into monday.
If something slips down the Irish sea and for snow lovers gets stuck near the East Coast you could have a foot of snow in Dublin and all along the East coast, but I wouldnt be putting my lifes savings on it...

Incidently for a comprehensive check on how tempreaturres are dropping have a look at the NRA's clickable map here
At 11am for instance the Tallagh by pass one was reporting 5 celcius whereas the Arklow by pass was a balmy 8.1 celcius

Baltinglass is at 6 degrees at roughly the same level south as Arklow but is further inland and while not that high, its tucked in close to the hills.
Thats a reason why I'd expect snow to lie thewre more than on the coast ihn Arklow ie a 2 degree lower temp.
It will not fall of course at 6 degree's but when the coast is on plus two, inland places like Baltinglass adjacent to the hills would be zero and in prime position for settling snow provided the showers reach them .

Meanwhile up in Donegal
N15 Lough Mourne
Date Fri, Dec 24
Time (24hr) 11:00
Air Temp 2.9° C.
37.2 ° F.
Humidity 90%
Avg Windspeed 8.7 mph
Wind direction Westerly (278º)
Road Surface Temp 2.8° C.
37 ° F.
Road State Wet
Precipitation Heavy rainfall

I wouldnt mind the heavy rainfall bit, these stations are automated so only really reliable for temperatures and road state.
They can and do report rainfall when it could be snow thats falling.
I'd say in the case of the above report,It's probably sleet.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 1:32pm

mmm latest precip chart..very nice shows a band of precip
moving across the country around 3am tonight
perfect white christmas time scale

http://www.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/nmm22/LYUVLV.htm

CrowdedHouse · 24-12-2004 1:46pm

I notice a White Xmas is now headline news on RTE radio...

5 c-/995hPa/no precip/windy Tipp/Laois/Offaly border 150m alt

billy the squid · 24-12-2004 1:52pm

http://www.met.ie/recentweather/

malin head reporting snow

billy the squid · 24-12-2004 1:59pm

http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?locationID=304

all i can say is " :eek: "

BrookieD · 24-12-2004 1:59pm

Hi All
I am driving to Achill Island tonight (about 17:00ish) any idea of the weather for late late xmas eve way out west?

need to make it there safely

24-12-2004 2:06pm

It will be very snowy and icy-stick to the main roads!!

BrookieD · 24-12-2004 2:08pm

main roads are all i got until Achill island, the last heavy ice was not delt with at all. looks like slow is the way to go

24-12-2004 2:08pm

billy the squid wrote:

http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?locationID=304

all i can say is " :eek: "

Billy Metcheck don't err on the side of caution

They tend to overstate if anything.
So don't fret, it's not going to be ten feet deep or anything, indeed what snow you do get should be the first to melt come stephens night.

24-12-2004 2:34pm

I heard Jean Byrne of Met Éireann on radio one just now saying theres a less than a 50% chance of a white XMAS in Dublin

Mothman · 24-12-2004 2:36pm

Malin Head at 13z was at 5C and reporting hail. Knock is still at 2C and sleet. but remember that knock is above 200M (650ft) above sea level.

in Wicklow its a wet showery 7C

Gonzo · 24-12-2004 2:37pm

the showers have finally reached us here in meath but they still falling as rain

Mothman · 24-12-2004 2:38pm

Earthman wrote:

I heard Jean Byrne of Met Éireann on radio one just now saying theres a less than a 50% chance of a white XMAS in Dublin

And that % drops as you go down the Wicklow Coastal strip.

100% for the Wicklow Hills though just 4 miles inland of me

24-12-2004 2:43pm

Looking at the NRA reports Castlrea in Roscommon is now down to 1 degree,I dont know what the elevation is though.

Thats a fair point about Knock mothman, 650 ft is quite high when it comes to the difference between wet rain /sleet and snow, the latter at 650 but the former at sea level.

Belmullets(Co Mayo) temp has now rose to 7 degree's even after that cold front has passed through.
It actually rose one degree since 12.

That temp is a big NO NO for snow.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 3:12pm

The cold air hasnt really arrived as such but will sweep
countrywide this evening. 50% for a white Christmas
in Dublin is propbably about right as they were talking
about lying snow i think

What gives me confidence
is that showers are making it right to the east coast

And remember a trough is expected later tonight and again
into tomorrow, evrything lookin good.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 3:19pm

Heres 2 charts the first shows how upper air temps are
now and the second at midnight tonight, notice the difference??
the Cold air hasnt arrived really just yet

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn062.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn182.gif

Paddy20 · 24-12-2004 3:43pm

Just back in from last minute shopping in Ballybofey, and I see the [Rain or Shine Thread] is Closed ? very strange decision for Christmas Imho, :rolleyes: I will post my report here.

The temperature is dropping fast, there is an overcast cloudbase which looks a bit different to the normal grey. It feels as though it could snow, or it could rain, but changes are in the air.

Must put on a big fire now, and prepare for a Whiteout

.

P.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2004 3:46pm

Im currently watching a development southwest
of Iceland progressing southeast, it looks like a comma
low or could be just a very active trough, makes pretty
viewing

PS. Its NOT that PL to the north of Scotland

Also temperature beginning to drop here in Dublin down
to 5.4 on my WS

White Xmas 2004

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