White Xmas 2004

Scubadevils

Not looking good for Dublin then:(

Danno

I dunno about the reliability of those charts though, they seem to chop and change a bit!

Scubadevils

I hope so, its recking my head now, roll on Saturday and be done with it! (until the next snow heads our way:) )

Danno

Looks like Laois will get some snow, we'd get more if we could shift the slieve bloom mtns though - esp in this weather set- up

Scubadevils

I lived in Portarlington until about two years ago, should have stayed:)
Was just out for a smoke, getting very cold out, wonder what the temp is

Danno

portarlington is a good location for snow i think

Danno

[URL=http://]http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weatherreports/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=33647[/URL]

got a topic on here, why not join in!

Trotter

I still reckon it'll snow in Waterford. Mainly because of how dedicated Ive been at crossing my fingers all these years.

Agent Smith

i've been waiting 19 years for it to snow in Killiney at christmas

billy the squid

what are the prospects for limerick, the city , we rarely get snow as it is but at christmas that would be a miracle.

ninebeanrows

Lads its time to watch the radar and temps, the chances of snow
in Dublin are alot higher than has been shown the GFS model shows
quite intense precipitation over the region tomorrow afternoon
and showers should begin to affect here later tonight so a dusting
is likely by morning. Later Xmas day is when the proper snow is expected

billy the squid

billy the squid wrote:

what are the prospects for limerick, the city , we rarely get snow as it is but at christmas that would be a miracle.

Higher prospects than Dublin

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Well Gonzo its inevitable that your going to be disappointed then!
This cold spell aint anything special in its own right but
its timing is supreme!

Just to focus on the east coast, confidence is beginning
to grow that eastern areas north of say Wicklow can expect
a prolonged period of snow around 6pm on Saturday. It is associated
with a developing feature north of northern Ireland. Eastern
Northern Ireland will be hit hard with upto 6 inches of snow likely.

Another period for possible snow in the East is later tomorrow
night as a trough moves throught the country.

Heres how i see it for Dublin and Eastern counties
of Wicklow, Dublin, Meathe and Louth. On Xmas
morning we should wake upto a light dusting of snow
possibly 1cm but showers will pack in prolonged
snow over Northern Ireland and slowly tricle down the
east coast. It will be a close run situation and at the moment
only areas north of Wicklow will be affected and no more
than 60 miles inland form the east coast. Upto 10cm's may
fall from this feature around Dublin and more further north
please stay tuned to forecasts to watch for development
of this feature as it could get very bad in these locations
late on Christmas

Heh he's at it again, no snow in wicklow because I'm from there-how childish

The Muppet

Weathercheck wrote:

Lads its time to watch the radar and temps, the chances of snow
in Dublin are alot higher than has been shown the GFS model shows
quite intense precipitation over the region tomorrow afternoon
and showers should begin to affect here later tonight so a dusting
is likely by morning. Later Xmas day is when the proper snow is expected

Cool. Fingers crossed so.

ninebeanrows

I actually didnt pick Wiclow on purpous!!

Dublin's chances are good in my eyes lets see
before commenting i think we could see lots
of snow tomorrow night

Lets keep our eyes on the radar from this evening
Bands of snow showers will affect ALL of Ireland

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

I actually didnt pick Wiclow on purpous!!

No I'm sure you didn't (It doesn't matter a hoot to me tbh) but I would like at least a sprinkling(pardon the pun) of reality here.
Places like roundwood Laragh, Blessington and other high areas of county wicklow will see a lot more snow accumilation than coastal or sea level parts of Dublin on Xmas Day.
The system passing through today could deposit an inch or two up there in passing for instance when all the greater Dublin area will see is rain or sleet.

As for tomorrow for snow lovers it's all to play for. One thing is certain the west and the North and the south west are going to see a lot of heavy snow showers.

As for the stuff coming out of Northern Ireland, remember that the wind is initially North west but then turns more northerly thats either going to keep much of the activity moving out into the Irish sea before it hits Dublin or keep it moving south in the Irish sea for a direct hit on North Wales, they are going to get hammered.

I'm not ruling out a snow fall for Dublin, there will be some, but it all depends on how extensive the shower build up is further north and whether there is enough of it to blow down towards Dublin as well as the bulk of it moving out over the Irish sea in it's journey to wales.
If the shower build up is big enough, then there could be a significant dusting in Dublin. Nothing is certain though and thats why Met Éireann are being cautious giving little or no snow fall in the East.
I'm inclined to err on their experienced side rather than go all out to say theres gonna be several cm's in Dublin.
After all they've been doing this for decades.
If you weathercheck get it mostly wrong for Dublin, all you'll get is a few ha ha ha's here on this site.

Met Éireann on the other hand have people relying on the accuracy of their forecasts(farmers and fishermen for example) which on the whole are reliable.
If they started getting carried away each time by the excitement of what might happen as opposed to what they think probably will happen, eventually no one would listen to them.
Mind you you're young yet at 15 weathercheck and your enthusiasm is a brilliant thing to see

ninebeanrows

Thanks Earthman

Metcheck have released where they think snow will be:
http://www.metcheck.com/index.asp

They only indicate major towns that will see snow

Hey hey a Quote from it

The following areas can expect to see a chance of snowfall on Christmas Day :-

- Aberdeen (Morning)
- Belfast (Morning / Evening)
- Cardiff (Morning)
- Dublin (All Day)
- Edinburgh (Morning)
- Glasgow (Afternoon)
- London (Evening)
- Manchester (All Day)
- Milton Keynes (Morning / Evening)
- Nottingham (Afternoon)
- Oxford (Evening)
- Plymouth (Evening)
- West Wales (All Day)

ninebeanrows

First trough now viewable to the northwest of Ireland

http://www.metoffice.com/satpics/latest_uk_ir.jpg

Ok.
Malin head now reporting sleet and 3 degree's.
I'm fairly confident that the current rain band will dump snow on the high ground at its back edge.
It may even fall to lower ground way up north but certaily high ground in places like Antrim, the mournes and the dublin and wicklow mountains are going to see some snow on the back edge of this.
Rain or sleet at lower levels in Dublin though from this.

CrowdedHouse

5.3 C 996 hPa Wet and miserable !

ninebeanrows

Temperatures beginnin to tumble across the entire
country as the front progresses south heres a radar
pic:
http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/radar/index.html

The Back edge may turn to sleet and the Dublin Mountains
look like they may turn white before it clears...good stuff.

Also interesting develoments south of Iceland:
Do you have any views on this Earthman, there
are two well defined troughs associated with the
feature

What do people make of the latest fax chart:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif
That little low pressure northwest of Ireland
looks interesting????

ninebeanrows

Latest fax chart indicate that later tonight a trough
will push across the country giving most area at least
a dusting of the white stuff. Another trough will approach
the north and affect Northern, Central and Eastern areas
around PM tomorrow

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Also interesting develoments south of Iceland:
Do you have any views on this Earthman, there
are two well defined troughs associated with the
feature

Well current indications are for Rain by sunday nigh and into monday.
If something slips down the Irish sea and for snow lovers gets stuck near the East Coast you could have a foot of snow in Dublin and all along the East coast, but I wouldnt be putting my lifes savings on it...

Incidently for a comprehensive check on how tempreaturres are dropping have a look at the NRA's clickable map here
At 11am for instance the Tallagh by pass one was reporting 5 celcius whereas the Arklow by pass was a balmy 8.1 celcius

Baltinglass is at 6 degrees at roughly the same level south as Arklow but is further inland and while not that high, its tucked in close to the hills.
Thats a reason why I'd expect snow to lie thewre more than on the coast ihn Arklow ie a 2 degree lower temp.
It will not fall of course at 6 degree's but when the coast is on plus two, inland places like Baltinglass adjacent to the hills would be zero and in prime position for settling snow provided the showers reach them .


Meanwhile up in Donegal
N15 Lough Mourne
Date Fri, Dec 24
Time (24hr) 11:00
Air Temp 2.9° C.
37.2 ° F.
Humidity 90%
Avg Windspeed 8.7 mph
Wind direction Westerly (278º)
Road Surface Temp 2.8° C.
37 ° F.
Road State Wet
Precipitation Heavy rainfall


I wouldnt mind the heavy rainfall bit, these stations are automated so only really reliable for temperatures and road state.
They can and do report rainfall when it could be snow thats falling.
I'd say in the case of the above report,It's probably sleet.

ninebeanrows

mmm latest precip chart..very nice shows a band of precip
moving across the country around 3am tonight
perfect white christmas time scale

http://www.unibas.ch/geo/mcr/3d/meteo/nmm22/LYUVLV.htm

CrowdedHouse

I notice a White Xmas is now headline news on RTE radio...

5 c-/995hPa/no precip/windy Tipp/Laois/Offaly border 150m alt

billy the squid

http://www.met.ie/recentweather/

malin head reporting snow

billy the squid

http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?locationID=304

all i can say is " :eek: "

BrookieD

Hi All
I am driving to Achill Island tonight (about 17:00ish) any idea of the weather for late late xmas eve way out west?

need to make it there safely

It will be very snowy and icy-stick to the main roads!!

billy the squid

billy the squid wrote:

http://www.metcheck.com/winter/willitsnow.asp?locationID=304

all i can say is " :eek: "

Billy Metcheck don't err on the side of caution
They tend to overstate if anything.
So don't fret, it's not going to be ten feet deep or anything, indeed what snow you do get should be the first to melt come stephens night.