White Xmas 2004

ninebeanrows

It will be a white christmas but whether you wake upto
lying snow on Christmas is in the balance but looking
ever likely All but the far south and southeast
can expect at very least a snow shower on the big day
but most likely is that a disturbance will push south
sometime late Christmas even and into Christmas day

But remember a white Christmas is a flake of snow falling
well thats how the bookies see it

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

But remember a white Christmas is a flake of snow falling
well thats how the bookies see it

Well thats how some see it-ie recorded snowfall at the location as opposed to lying snow.
Celtic bookmakers require a cm of lying snow at Dublin airport for Dublin.

As regards 0 degrees by day on the East coast I doubt it.It would definitely be the case if there was lying snow alright but it has to settle first.

20 centimetres in the North? Thats 10 inches or almost a foot which hasn't happened in a long time...

I see met Éireann tonight are going for the Atlantic shower activity model and North, northwesterlies with the highest risk of lying snow across the north and down along western counties and down right onto the south west.
That seems about right to me.

You get a feed of polar air over the warmer sea and the Atlantic holding a lot more water than the Irish sea, you could get some very heavy hail sleet and snow showers in the south west.
The risk is low in the East though, especially the south east.

ninebeanrows

Well i go by measuring using a 30cm ruler which
is 12 inches so 20 cms is about 8 inches and abit
more than half a foot if im not right??

And yes i do expect the northwest to get pasted

Latest Fax charts are suplime to say the least they
show a trough moving south on Christmas Eve Night
and then one affecting the Eastern half of Ireland
on Stephen's day

Danno

Hmmm, interesting forecast by Evlyn Cusack at 00.25.

Thurles 75%
Dublin 75%
Sligo 85%
Dundalk 85%

Hats off to Weathercheck so far.

Danno

Danno wrote:

Hmmm, interesting forecast by Evlyn Cusack at 00.25.

Thurles 75%
Dublin 75%
Sligo 85%
Dundalk 85%

Hats off to Weathercheck so far.

Well Dundalk and Sligo are and always were in the firing line for weather from the North.
Dublin too but less so.
As for Thurles well that gets hit because it normally gets wet showery weather from the atlantic which when cold enough would be snow.

For snow lovers though I would always add a word of caution and that is, (a) it's early still and you are talking about dragging temperatures down by 12 degrees in the space of 36 hrs,I'm not saying that won't happen but it would be phenominal.
(b) we had a similar scenario in february of last year mothman summed up what happened

ninebeanrows

I dont see any problems at draggin temps down
from 12c this chart shows the 850hpa temps
and shows them steasdily falling. The front introducing
the cold weather should cool down the dew points as such



Its going to be a 48hr wonder but i think if it doesnt go tits
up 70% of Ireland will wake up to a white Xmas

And i think our luck will have changed after last
years disaster but there is one important
difference to what happened last year. This northerly
is much further west placing the coldest conditons and
wettest over US .

This chart shows the synoptics last year:


The pressure was just too high and thus we it duely drizzled here in Dublin

Heres our Christmas Cold Spell as Predicted today:


As can be seen the cold spell is much further west and Ireland
under a very cold airmass and also the pressure instead of being
1010mb in last years cold snap is 990mb bringing an increased
liklihood of more intense precip

ninebeanrows

You know when the weather forecaster has a big grin
on her face with loads of snow symbols on the map
behind that things are looking good

Ulster looks like gettin pasted and she even
had snow in Dublin on Xmas Day and that without
mention of troughs

If a polar low forms which it might to the north of
Ulster it could bring a foot of snow to ulster and
other locations, just to warn you of that for Xmas
Day usually these cant be predicted until 18-24hrs
before the event so be careful. There is a 30% chance
of one of these forming

ninebeanrows

hi just to let you know i'll be issuing a detailed forecast
tonight at around 8pm pin pointing locations most at
risk from the snow

Astro1996

Hey weathercheck, is net-weather.co.uk down? cant read the forums error 404? :mad:

ninebeanrows

Yes is down for me
There server was near breakin point for the past 2 weeks
it was only a matter of time

By the way the Irish Met have issued a Severe Weather Warning

Severe weather warning
Met Eireann advisory of severe winter weather over the Christmas weekend Issued 1500 Wednesday 22nd December 2004 The weather will turn very cold across Ireland through Friday, Christmas Eve, and remain very cold through Christmas Day and St Stephens Day. Strong Northwest winds will bring wintry showers across the country; these will fall as hail, sleet and snow in many areas. Each weekend night will bring a sharp or severe frost. There will be a high risk of icy patches developing on the roads countrywide. Risk of significant accumulations (greater than 3cm) of snow at low levels Severe

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Supercell

Exciting times indeed, one thing I would say is that the models frequently move these systems further east closer to the forcast time frame...
I think unless there is troughs running down the Irish sea (or dream scenario for snow lovers a polar low) the likes of Dublin is very unlikely to see much .
I'd say if we (Dublin) get anything it will be from a trough or polar low and then will get a nice dumping..or we'll get nothing at all without them.
Certainly I'd go along with Weatherchecks forecast temps, Dublin usually is very very cold with a northwesterly wind of polar origin ..but often that equates to dry air and very little precipitation. Even if Dublin is 3c+ ..dew points are likely to be signifcantly below zero so in any precipitation, its likely to plummet temps and fall as sleet/snow.
All to play for at the moment, very exciting times for snow lovers (like me!!) though )

ninebeanrows

OK i've lost it im heading into full ramp mode

Look at that cold front swinging south
Xmas eve night!!!!!

Just Look!!!!


Ramp full steam ahead as band of snow
pushes south through xmas eve night
followed by loads of showers countrywide...

A widspread white christmas with upto 10cm'sa
of snow nationwide

Supercell

Lol ...ramp away m8..look at where the 528 dam is!!! whoo hooo ...still a little early to take these features as gospel tho

Well the ingredients are stacking up now alright (if mother nature doesnt change her mind)

Now I need 6 or 7 volunteers to round up the cattle tomorrow and put them in the shed in preparation for this...

Willing bodies post below

ninebeanrows

You know things are looking good when Earthman is
beginning to ramp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll be putting up some maps later for ye snow lovers

Dreams are made of this someone wake me up !!!

Heh-is that a yes then to herding up the cattle?

I've split the old posts off this thread and recreated the winter forecast thread.
This thread will be renamed it's to be a white Christmas and stickified untill the Xmas Snowy spell is over.

I'll re sticky the winter forecast thread in it's place at that point.

Scubadevils

Hi all,

New to this forum in as far as registering but have been following your thoughts on snow for Christmas for the last week - felt I had to register as I am now getting very excited at the prospect of a white Christmas!
Every winter I hope and hope that there will be snow (I think its down to the magic memory of '82- was only six then but still a precious memory!).
I just hope it happens in Dublin, specifically nth Dublin where I am too. Will keep on eye on things here and countdown the hours till the big day!
- probably will do my usual (which will sound really sad!!) and set my alarm for around 4am to see if it has been snowing on the night!!! Outside of reading this forum I felt I was alone in my dreams of snow!

Any predicitons for January? - have heard reports of lots of cold weather then too

ninebeanrows

hiya Felix whereabouts are you im in Portmarnock

Dont expect anything really severe of Christmas the cold
spell is only looking like lasting 48hr but its the timing
thats exceptional. I think if that front moves south
as shown in the fax chart here in North Dublin we can
expect over 5cm's of snow if were lucky

I havent seen lying snow since the good old blizzard of
2001, febuary 27th to be exact lol!!

That night i stayed up every single hour watching the snow!!

And i'll do the same this Friday

Scubadevils

Hi, Im in Lusk where it seems to get colder then it did when I lived in Coolock - maybe wishful thinking!
Lets just keep our fingers crossed that front will move in and give us a nice blizzard and lots of snow. Dont really mind if its short lived, just to get some will do me till January!
2001 was great, I remember driving somewhere and loving every minute of it! My girlfriend was with me in the car and couldnt understand my delight of being caught in a blizzard!
I will also be up Friday night eagerly awaiting the first snow flakes! - you reckon it will happen Friday night?

Supercell

Felixdhc wrote:

Outside of reading this forum I felt I was alone in my dreams of snow!

Believe me you are not alone in this..most weather boards are full of people who feel just the same..have a look at TWO and UKWW as good cases in point and both have many Irish members. Both boards have pro meteorologists and enthustiastic amateurs alike posting on them..and very frequently you find ..that snow fascination is common

Gonzo

any snow for around new years day? these charts show snow dangerously close to ireland/uk again http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/180_30.gif

Scubadevils

Hi Longfield, certainly appears I am not alone! Thing is I will be fixed on the thoughts of snow now till Friday and if it doesnt happen I will be so disappointed! I reckon it will though, had a vision of my car covered in snow in the driveway!

Supercell

Gonzo wrote:

any snow for around new years day? these charts show snow dangerously close to ireland/uk again http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/180_30.gif

To be honest..what happens that far ahead is anyones guess, the charts are all over the place that far ahead ..

The Dublin Ensemble shows this pretty well...

A Dub in Glasgo

Does this mean we are likely to get snow in Glasgow from Friday night? currently 10.2'C outside after some pretty heavy rain and high winds last night.

Praetorian

If we don't get snow, I'm going to bring ye to court

The Muppet

Felixdhc wrote:

[
2001 was great, I remember driving somewhere and loving every minute of itMy girlfriend was with me in the car and couldnt understand my delight of being caught in a blizzard!

As someone who spent the night stranded in a ford cortina just north of Murtaghs of ballough in the snow of 82 I'm with your Girlfriend on that one. At the first sign of snow now I head for home and stay there until it melts.


Weathercheck I too have been following your predictiions and herself who is terribly excited at the prospect of a white christmas is looking for regular updates on the chances so I will continue to follow this thread. I'm in Swords BTW,

Keep up the good work

Scubadevils

The Muppet wrote:

As someone who spent the night stranded in a ford cortina just north of Murtaghs of ballough in the snow of 82 I'm with your Girlfriend on that one. At the first sign of snow now I head for home and stay there until it melts.

That I think might be a different story and I can imagine not very nice! I was within walking distance from home if needed be. I know my uncle had to leave his car back in '82 and walk for two hours! Still think I might enjoy it though!!!

ninebeanrows

Praetorian wrote:

If we don't get snow, I'm going to bring ye to court

LOL And if i do get it right???? !!!

DapperGent

You get nothing.

Welcome to my world.

mike65

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=5081

The fire better be stoked up on Christmas Morning round my sisters place...!

Mike.

ninebeanrows

Please Mike dont worry about those ridiculus
computerised forecasts their the laughing stock
of most boards

Trotter

Just wondering, Im in Waterford, and I havent seen snow for years! Any chance of me makin a snowman just for old times sake?!

The Muppet

The UTV forecast is giving snow down the east coast for Christmas Eve. \o/

ninebeanrows

UTV lol their forecasts leave alot to be desired lets say!

OK things looking great with two troughs set to move south
across the country one on Friday night and the other
on Christmas morning approaching Dublin by aroun 10am.

These bands will be probably made of of showers but
they will be prolonged! If your living in the southeast
try and just hope for a shower because its probable
you wont see any snow lying anyway. Late
into Christmas day as the wind moves to a direct
Northerly Eastern counties may be plaqued by some
frequent showers as shown on the 3rd image so stay
tuned

Trough just clearing east


Another trough reaching the south coast


And that pecular feature in the Irish Sea

keu

if your living in the southeast
try and just hope for a shower because its probable
you wont see any snow lying anyway.

awh for the love of god...I was getting all excited, doesn't get to snow down here much at all, tired of watching snow on the telly in other parts of the country and none here..c'mon snow, move down waterford way.

ninebeanrows

You still have a decent chance of seeing lying snow, your just
in the worst position to get some

Villain

What do you think the chances of getting lying snow in carlow are?

ninebeanrows

I would expect Carlow to see some lying snow yes

CrowdedHouse

Maybe I've no soul or something but why would anybody Want snow in Ireland-cold and dangerously slippy stuff !

cajun_tiger

bah hum bug to you to!!!
i cant wait coz my little girl keeps going on about snow(shes never seen any)

ninebeanrows

Because its wonderful and the things that dreams are made
of and also the fact that its rarier that lion's poop here
in Dulbin!

CrowdedHouse

Well i hope no elderly relative slips and breaks their bones cos with our 'health service'........

...still i suppose I can test out all the great things the salesman said were on my car like 4wd,ESP,ABS ..xyz...and claim under the warranty when I stick it in the wall.......!!

.....and may all your Christmases be White .........

Anything coming down during friday will most likely be sleety rain with snow confined to the hills and the north.
The fun will really begin late into friday and during Xmas day

ninebeanrows

Yes indeed things are looking very interesting for all
areas north of a Wicklow on Friday Night (not picking
Wicklow to annoy anyone!!) as a frontal band of snow
moves into Ulsters ensuring them at least a white Christmas
it will then push south to affect most areas but i feel it
will dy out as it passes to far south. On Christmas day
things look like getting interesting late AM as another
feature moves in from the North bringing further appreciations
to Ulster, Leinster and Connacht. I expect areas of Ulster to
recieve upto 20cm's of snow and im expecting overall falls
to even out at 3-5cm's for the Dublin region if everything
goes well. This is enough to cause chaos in a city that will
be in a frenzy doing last minute shopping and all sorts. 5 cm's
of snow is enough to bring Dublin to a standstill and if it
comes off it duely will

Enjoy and dont be disappointed if it doesnt come off

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

(not picking
Wicklow to annoy anyone!!)

I think you will find that on balance wicklow gets more snow than portmarnock every winter,it has 3000ft mountains you know
I expect it will get a lot more than portmarnock this time too

Enjoy and dont be disappointed if it doesnt come off

Hey after five pages of confidence, charts and stuff, don't tell me you're losing the faith

A Dub in Glasgo

Looks like the temperature in the most northerly observation station in the UK is plummeting

Lerwick

ninebeanrows

Fax charts are again excellant with at least 2 troughs
crossing the entire country Things look sweet
for a white Christmas with the first band crossing the
country late on Xmas Eve and during the late morning
on Christmas day Enjoy the snow

Supercell

Hmm latest charts are showing west as best (and NI) ..wonder if we are going to see anything above a dusting here in Dublin if at all..but who knows maybe some showers will make it to here as snow..personally would put Dublin snow probability > 1cm about 30% over Fri-Sat period.
For the midlands and west would say significant accumulations are very likely.

BEAT

I've copied and pasted a post from Beat on another board(I'm sure she won't mind,I've edited out the private bits).
Beat lives in cleveland Ohio where 2 or 3 cms of snow looks more like a hard frost...

BEAT wrote:

Sorry but I have to do it...I know you may not care but I have to blow some steam....
I hate the city I live in,

Why the sudden change of mood you ask? I went from happy and singing to angry and psycho all because I woke up this morning to 2 almost 3 feet of snow and not one snow truck had cleans my street.
They have known all week this was coming and we were warned all week...so why werent there any trucks ready and cleaning it up you ask?
Because my city is cheap and the cut the budget on snow trucks for side streets...only main streets get cleaned then if they can spare some time they go after teh side streets...in the meantime my car is stuck in the street and will not move can not move because it is stuck in piled up snow...and i am not the only one.

So because i dont drive a truck or suv I am being punished,
think about it, 2 feet of heavy wet snow. I couldnt do it, my legs and back finally gave out and I am stranded.
I tripped and fell walking up the driveway to add to my frustration.

BTW, this is just from my trip home from work. Here is what happened this morning...

oh, this is just the beginnig.....this morning I managed to get out of my garage and out of the driveway, i got stuck but managed to get unstuck all to go to work I finally get to work after driving through hell and high water...literally highwater...city is flooding from the freezing rain and snow.
I get to the office after tripping and getting my foot stuck in my coat and ripping it, my poor trench coat.
I walk in the office and only my boss is there...he tells me,
you can go home no one else is coming in!
the worst day this city has seen in over 100 years!
driving home you read about, I ofcurse couldnt get back up the driveway, I tried to shovel it but the shovel broke and I stabbed my hand with it.

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Hmm latest charts are showing west as best (and NI) ..wonder if we are going to see anything above a dusting here in Dublin if at all..but who knows maybe some showers will make it to here as snow..personally would put Dublin snow probability > 1cm about 30% over Fri-Sat period.
For the midlands and west would say significant accumulations are very likely.

It's looking like that alright
The southwest eg Kerry and west Cork could get a good cover as well, they would be very prone to Atlantic showers when the wind is north west which more than likely will be falling as snow.