2020 US Election

redarmyblues · 19-10-2020 5:24pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

...aaaaand back down to 1.62 now. Swingy!

When the price of Trump started to contract I laid him at each iteration 2.78, 2.6 and 2.44 unless Biden gets the virus I would expect to trade out of all of that by the end of the week, there has been no good news for him anywhere.

Muahahaha · 20-10-2020 6:11pm

PP have added a good few new bets like electoral college seats and the margin of the popular vote. The one that stood out to me though was the state with the smallest percentage winning margin. Ohio and Georgia are good contenders for this so I put a few quid on at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Other contenders would be Florida, Iowa and North Carolina but none are polling as tightly as Ohio and Georgia right now. Ohio has always been a very tight state so hoping it remains true to form for this election

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/georgia/

Also have money on Biden winning in Michigan and Wisconsin from a couple of months ago, was going to double down on it but the odds for Michigan have now shifted to 1/3 and they've pulled Wisconsin from the book altogether. iirc Trump has given up spending resources in Michigan so even they see it as gone to Biden

Rjd2 · 20-10-2020 11:41pm

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/presidential-state-winner/wisconsin

wisconsin their with plenty of bookies, sadly few lay doubles on it and if they give you a double price its normally a piss take.

Brussels Sprout · 21-10-2020 12:03pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

The one that stood out to me though was the state with the smallest percentage winning margin. Ohio and Georgia are good contenders for this so I put a few quid on at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Other contenders would be Florida, Iowa and North Carolina but none are polling as tightly as Ohio and Georgia right now. Ohio has always been a very tight state so hoping it remains true to form for this election

The latest 538 podcast discussed this very topic. Apart from the states above they also mentioned Texas and Maine's 2nd district (not sure if the latter would count since it's not a state but it's the 3rd closest according to their forecast after OH & GA).

Muahahaha · 21-10-2020 4:51pm

yeah there are a few polls saying Trump is only 2-3% ahead in Texas but on the day I cant see Biden winning it or it even being that close. Texas will be won by the Dems some day but Im not seeing it this time out. Ohio and Georgia are the really tight races and worth a small punt on the smallest winning margin imo, both states are extremely tight right now.

Other interesting options on PP are forecasting the electoral college seats. A few options there for Biden are 8/1 for 270-299 votes, 6/1 for 300-329, the favourite 4/1 for 330-359 and 6/1 for 360-389. I've now covered 300 up to 359 with two bets after studying the Financial Times forecaster for a while. I think Texas stays with Trump so their 38 EC votes are not available to Biden.

But of the toss up states remaining. If Biden can win Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Arizona (11) then that puts him firmly into the 300-329 space which is 6/1. If he goes beyond that by winning Georgia (16) and North Carolina (15) then he is into 330-359 (4/1) territory. However he can win those and still lose Florida which would put him back down to the 300-329 bracket.

The FT model has Biden down for a solid 207 EC votes and then another 71 leaning towards him. So provided that bears out and he does well in the remaining toss up states somewhere between 300-359 EC votes looks achievable and like it is the sweet spot of the available options. So I took the 4/1 and the 6/1 with the hope the 6/1 pays out.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

Brussels Sprout · 22-10-2020 12:35pm

Biden down to 1.52 now. Looks like the Betting Markets are seeing the light once more.

Will be interesting to see how they are in 24 hours time. If it's another Dumpster fire of a debate that could hit 1.4 I reckon.

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-10-2020 3:25pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden down to 1.52 now. Looks like the Betting Markets are seeing the light once more.
Will be interesting to see how they are in 24 hours time. If it's another Dumpster fire of a debate that could hit 1.4 I reckon.

Swings and roundabouts, sure 1.44, then 1.67 next week, then revert, and so on it goes.

One interesting market is 2am GMT debate keyword bingo:
To Say(3): Fake News, Rigged Election, Unfit for Office @ 4.50 (combination {either to say} market).

BFE pipped 600 for KH just days ago, this market appears to be not just for Nov 3rd election day, but for POTUS inauguration day (Jan 20th or so), so plenty of extra time for Crooked Joe to Covid-Croak, and for intended the stand-in replacement to replace, if they can beat the Dealmaker that is.

Brussels Sprout · 23-10-2020 9:37am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden down to 1.52 now. Looks like the Betting Markets are seeing the light once more.

Will be interesting to see how they are in 24 hours time. If it's another Dumpster fire of a debate that could hit 1.4 I reckon.

1.51 - no real change

23-10-2020 9:50am

The debate won't help him any bit. Basically Trump trying to push conspiracy theories and none of them stuck.

Muahahaha · 23-10-2020 12:43pm

yeah Trump badly needed a knockout blow last night and he didnt get it, Biden was well able to handle him. Trumps Russia/China conspiracy theories arent sticking and nobody could care less about the laptop story, its a bottle of smoke and Trump has told so many lies at this stage that people just dont believe him anymore. Would expect more allegations that Biden has got millions off the Russians/Chinese/whoever but as he pointed out strongly last night its Biden who has released 24 years of tax returns while Trump refuses to do likewise.

Biden just needs to keep doing what hes been doing all along for the next 10 days and he is in a very strong position to be the next President.

4068ac1elhodqr · 23-10-2020 1:19pm

Yep, Trump put in a sterling performance, showing up Biden as entirely untrustworthy (a stuttering Joe, telling bare faced lies, in denial of cash from Ukraine), nevermind Hunter's dodgy dealings there also. All clearly reflected in the markets this morning, and something the public at large will easily see through. Shortening:

Brussels Sprout · 23-10-2020 7:36pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Trumps Russia/China conspiracy theories arent sticking and nobody could care less about the laptop story, its a bottle of smoke and Trump has told so many lies at this stage that people just dont believe him anymore.

This is the big issue that Trump doesn't seem to grasp. Not only do people automatically ignore any accusations he flings out but at this stage people also ignore anyone in his administration (Bill Barr, Pompeo, McEnany) or any media organisations who report in his favour (Fox News, OAN, The Federalist, Breitbart, The New York Post etc).

If he wants anything to stick to Biden it needs to come from a truly independent, trusted source. It's difficult to imagine now, but this time 4 years ago James Comey was all of that.

Frankly, at this stage, even if the FBI came out with a similar story about Biden now, I suspect that people would still vote for him as they're just sick of Trump and his nonsense.

Bobeagleburger · 23-10-2020 7:43pm

Trump out to 3 again on betfair.

Biden leading in Florida too. Without Florida Trump hasn't a hope.

greenfield21 · 24-10-2020 12:26pm

I still think trump will win, but looks like he's going to drift further as no boost from debates and probably no suprises with the run in.

Brussels Sprout · 24-10-2020 1:45pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

I still think trump will win, but looks like he's going to drift further as no boost from debates and probably no suprises with the run in.

Out of curiosity which of the swing states do you think he's going to win to get over the 270 electoral college votes?

You can play around with the map on this site if you don't know off the top of your head: https://www.270towin.com/

greenfield21 · 24-10-2020 2:00pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Out of curiosity which of the swing states do you think he's going to win to get over the 270 electoral college votes?

You can play around with the map on this site if you don't know off the top of your head: https://www.270towin.com/

AZ,MI,WI,PA,NC 305/6-232 Trump wins.

Already give my reasons so not going drivel on but trumps ground game, inaccurate polls due to virus, voter registrations, people voting with there pockets- polls showing satisfaction with economy. Where biden needs to win votes climate change and reducing oil output will not help him.

Muahahaha · 24-10-2020 3:08pm

Id see Michigan and Wisconsin as wrapped up for Biden, he has heavy leads in both of them with Wisconsin at +10 and Michigan +9. I just cant see Trump overhauling that in the next 10 days. All the other swing states are closer than that but Biden is still leading in all of them. Biden has far more paths to victory so he doesnt need to win all of them whereas Trump needs most of them.

Brussels Sprout · 24-10-2020 5:51pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

AZ,MI,WI,PA,NC 305/6-232 Trump wins.

Already give my reasons so not going drivel on but trumps ground game, inaccurate polls due to virus, voter registrations, people voting with there pockets- polls showing satisfaction with economy. Where biden needs to win votes climate change and reducing oil output will not help him.

Fair enough. I don't think Trump will win any of those states personally (with the possible exception of NC) but we'll agree to disagree.

4068ac1elhodqr · 25-10-2020 4:05pm

Could be a glitch in the matrix, or someone may have sneezed near Joe, but Kammy is only 3-400 now, from 7-800 last night.

Don't worry if you didn't get the BFE 500+, it's likely subject to more terms (voids) than regular markets.

e.g. ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market and seems to relate only to the majority of the projected Electoral College votes 3rd Nov.
Whereas the B&M folks doing 150/1 have 'next pres' (Jan 20th) which may allow for a hot swap if for some strange reason Trump isn't triumphant.

IAMAMORON · 25-10-2020 4:11pm

Does anyone know of any bookies giving odds on the swing states and furthermore does anyone have any idea which they are?

Muahahaha · 25-10-2020 4:37pm

PP have odds on some of the swing states but not all. Oddschecker will find you the others.

Scroll down the end of this page to see detail on them
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/iowa/

greenfield21 · 25-10-2020 11:41pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Does anyone know of any bookies giving odds on the swing states and furthermore does anyone have any idea which they are?

Haven't been following it much yet but Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Texas are all close looking at polls.
Trump in NH today. Who knows.

The ones showing Texas close are complete rubbish. It's only going to ramp up the clean sweep blue wave nonsense so Trump is probably going to well over 3 now. Also lots of early data coming in and looking good for Dems, haven't checked it but turnout in some areas could benefit them. Depends on how you read it so probably benefits both camps.

Brussels Sprout · 26-10-2020 2:22pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

The ones showing Texas close are complete rubbish.

A Democrat hasn't won Texas since Jimmy Carter so I can understand the urge to dismiss these polls. However, think back to what happened with Trump in the rust belt 4 years ago. A lot of those states hadn't gone red since Ronald Regan and people dismissed late polls showing that the races there were tightening.

The most likely scenario is that Trump wins Texas but I wouldn't dismiss the likelihood of Biden winning it out of hand.

Muahahaha · 26-10-2020 4:39pm

It would be a stunning upset were Biden to take Texas, even though a couple of polls showed him slightly in the lead there its hard to actually see it happening on the day. If it did happen then Trump is absolute toast regardless of what happens in Florida.

In any case it seems now Putin has turned against him, he came out yesterday and said that Bidens son did nothing wrong in Ukraine or Russia. Its a clear signal that Putin has given up on Trump winning this election. No.10 Downing Street are likewise, the foreign office there are scrambling to meet with Biden but he is rebuffing them, their plans for a post Brexit trade deal with Trump are in complete disarray

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2020 4:45pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Does anyone know of any bookies giving odds on the swing states and furthermore does anyone have any idea which they are?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/swing-states-what-key-battleground-2020-election-who-leading-polls/
This Telegraph article identifies
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Michigan
Minnesota
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

The rust belt trio of Pennsylvania, Michigan Wisconsin are drawing most attention; if Biden wins them all he is effectively home and hosed, and he has clear poll leads in all three

Brussels Sprout · 27-10-2020 11:06am

The price on Biden seems to have hit a point of resistance around the 1.5 mark. it doesn't tend to get too far above or below that. Hasn't reached either 1.45 or 1.55 in recent days.

Loafing Oaf · 27-10-2020 11:25am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The price on Biden seems to have hit a point of resistance around the 1.5 mark. it doesn't tend to get too far above or below that. Hasn't reached either 1.45 or 1.55 in recent days.

Yeah Trump's price has been hovering just below 2/1 for several days now. Not sure how these things work, but I wonder did the bookies set that as the limit, irrespective of polling and other evidence, to protect themselves in case of a repeat of 2016...

Brussels Sprout · 27-10-2020 5:33pm

Only just realised that there is a set of Rules for the Betfair market:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

Looks like it'll be settled pretty soon so, one way or the other

Loafing Oaf · 27-10-2020 5:59pm

Obama: "This is the most important election of our lifetimes." Is it a law of American politics that somebody has to to say this every four years?

Muahahaha · 27-10-2020 6:27pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah Trump's price has been hovering just below 2/1 for several days now. Not sure how these things work, but I wonder did the bookies set that as the limit, irrespective of polling and other evidence, to protect themselves in case of a repeat of 2016...

Yeah Id say thats exactly what is going on, they wont let Trumps odds go out further than 2/1. The Financial Times model is saying Biden has an 88% chance of victory so Trumps chances are far above 2/1 but the bookies arent going to offer realistic odds because of what happened in 2016. If you were brave enough to back Trump now you would want at least 4 or 5/1 but it wont be offered.

Loafing Oaf · 27-10-2020 6:35pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Yeah Id say thats exactly what is going on, they wont let Trumps odds go out further than 2/1. The Financial Times model is saying Biden has an 88% chance of victory so Trumps chances are far above 2/1 but the bookies arent going to offer realistic odds because of what happened in 2016. If you were brave enough to back Trump now you would want at least 4 or 5/1 but it wont be offered.

But isn't the flipside of that that Biden's odds are artificially long at round 1/2 for a candidate who is close to a dead cert? I suppose there's less of a risk in that for the bookies than letting Trump's odds reach their natural level a 5/1 or whatever and then having lightning strike twice on election night.

Muahahaha · 27-10-2020 7:07pm

yeah would agree. I think even now a week out that Biden at 1/2 is good value, its a two horse race and he is in the lead in the final furlong and despite this people still have the opportunity to make a 50% profit on their stake. But no way is Trump good value at 2/1 right now when all things are weighed up, he is fighting desperately for his political life and its hard to see any turn around from what has gone before, even then its too late in the day now IMO.

Would imagine also that some bookies are limiting their exposure all the same by implementing maximum bets of 50 euro or 100. Id say the bookies themselves are afraid of lightning striking twice even though there hasnt been any great indication that it will.

Augme · 27-10-2020 9:22pm

Bookies odds are hugely influenced by the their liability. Bookies don't need to push out trump's odds to 4-1 because he is still getting backed at 2-1. Same for Biden. I think alot of people this time around are so sceptical of the pills due to last time that they aren't really betting based on the polls.

I can see a reverse of the situation that happened last time. Where biden absolutely romps home as expected by the polls but almost unexpected by the average Joe because they just didn't trust what the polls were saying.

When you take out bias and personal opinion and you look at the polls and the maths of it then 1/2 for Biden is an incredible price.

Muahahaha · 27-10-2020 11:19pm

Augme wrote: »

I can see a reverse of the situation that happened last time. Where biden absolutely romps home as expected by the polls but almost unexpected by the average Joe because they just didn't trust what the polls were saying.

Im thinking along the same lines myself, some of his leads in states are 8-10% but despite this a lot of people dont trust the polls and still think it is still a really close race. With Biden even competitive in a state like Texas we could be looking at a landslide here, especially if Florida falls to Biden where he has had a solid consistent lead for months now. On the state level if the polling is outside the margin of error of +/-3% and is consistently showing Biden far ahead then it is basically free money imo.

Brussels Sprout · 28-10-2020 12:28pm

Augme wrote: »

When you take out bias and personal opinion and you look at the polls and the maths of it then 1/2 for Biden is an incredible price.

Bingo

Loafing Oaf · 28-10-2020 12:39pm

Augme wrote: »

Bookies odds are hugely influenced by the their liability. Bookies don't need to push out trump's odds to 4-1 because he is still getting backed at 2-1.

It still seems strange to me that Trump's odds have been 'frozen' round 15/8 for several days. If this was a normal market, surely he would have drifted even a small bit as opinion poll and other evidence that he is a gonner piles up.

Brussels Sprout · 28-10-2020 12:44pm

I don't buy the bookies are controlling the market narrative. People are driving those numbers. The shock of Trump's win in 2016 seems to have cast a spell over people were they see him as electorally invincible.

I've lost count of the number of people in my personal orbit who have told me that they expect Trump to win again. In some cases they are fans of his, in others they fear him getting re-elected. Even in this thread, numerous different users have shown up to say how they believe that Trump is going to win. The thread itself was started, in June, by someone who couldn't believe that Trump was the underdog.

Muahahaha · 28-10-2020 1:26pm

yeah but its not a normal market when the bookies are the ones setting the price, its take it or leave it. The exchanges are more normal in that regard but even they arent reflecting value based on the statistical chances at this point in the race.

Its come out now that the Trump campaign are running on fumes and have to pull tv advertising money from Florida and will be leaving it to the RNC to spend their own money in the state. As to how enthused the RNC will be to throw millions at it remains to be seen.

Augme · 28-10-2020 11:54pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

It still seems strange to me that Trump's odds have been 'frozen' round 15/8 for several days. If this was a normal market, surely he would have drifted even a small bit as opinion poll and other evidence that he is a gonner piles up.

Why offer someone odds of 3-1 when they will place the same bet at 15/8? It doesn't make any financial sense for bookies to do that.

Brussels Sprout · 29-10-2020 10:33am

Biden up to 1.54 now. I had bets on @ 1.52 and 1.55 waiting to be matched. The 1.55 one is still unmatched so he hasn't hit that price just yet.

Brussels Sprout · 29-10-2020 5:58pm

got a match at 1.55. He's down to 1.52 now again

Bobeagleburger · 29-10-2020 8:34pm

247m matched on betfair.

okidoki987 · 29-10-2020 11:08pm

6 wrote: »

247m matched on betfair.

Looking like it could reach nearly £500 million :eek:
This is more than this year's Super Bowl, the 2019 Grand National, Mayweather vs McGregor and the 2018 Champions World Cup Final!

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/the-market-could-reach-400-500-million-us-election-takes-betfair-by-storm/456743

Hope the people backing these on the exchange are paying 2% commission and not joining up and clicking on the free bets offer which is 8% commission :eek:.

DK224 · 30-10-2020 12:59pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Im thinking along the same lines myself, some of his leads in states are 8-10% but despite this a lot of people dont trust the polls and still think it is still a really close race. With Biden even competitive in a state like Texas we could be looking at a landslide here, especially if Florida falls to Biden where he has had a solid consistent lead for months now. On the state level if the polling is outside the margin of error of +/-3% and is consistently showing Biden far ahead then it is basically free money imo.

I've believed the polls are skewed towards Biden for the last few months and I think the odds of a Biden "landslide" are being overstated.

The early voting figures in both Texas, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin look good for Trump. With Trump encouraging his supporters to vote on election day again and again the past few months I'm expecting a Trump surge on election day and judging by the early voting data there is doubts that the Dems will have built up enough of a cushion based on their early voting.

I am betting accordingly so will find out how right or wrong I was soon enough!

Brussels Sprout · 30-10-2020 1:43pm

DK224 wrote: »

The early voting figures in both Texas, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin look good for Trump. With Trump encouraging his supporters to vote on election day again and again the past few months I'm expecting a Trump surge on election day and judging by the early voting data there is doubts that the Dems will have built up enough of a cushion based on their early voting.

Can you elaborate on this?

The fact that Texas, in particular, has hit 95% of it's 2016 number of votes cast already seems fairly promising for the Democrats to me.

Edit: both Nevada & North Carolina are over 80% as well

DK224 · 30-10-2020 2:06pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Can you elaborate on this?

The fact that Texas, in particular, has hit 95% of it's 2016 number of votes cast already seems fairly promising for the Democrats to me.

Edit: both Nevada & North Carolina are over 80% as well

Well taking the early figures from Nevada using the Targetsmart early voting database (which is not foolproof) that gives you early voting based on voter registration and this is trending to be a smaller gap for the Dems going into election day than the 99k lead Hillary had in 2016.

Add to that weaker than predicted early turnout amongst 18-24, Hispanic and African American voters leads me to think this isn't the Biden procession many are predicting.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

Muahahaha · 30-10-2020 2:10pm

Checked my PP account just there and they're now offering me cashback on Wisconsin and Michigan. Both states have polling leads for Biden in the 8-10% range so I'm not tempted and the cashback profit is minuscule anyway. The NY Times/Upshot had a piece on 'if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016' where they factor in the polling errors of 2016. In that model Biden still takes Wisconsin and Michigan even if the 2016 polling errors were to repeated this time out so Im going to hold out regardless.

My main exposure is on Biden and they're now offering me cashback on that as well. I have him at 12/1 and currently they are offering cashback at slightly over 8/1. Must say Im tempted to take it now to avoid the stress of the count which could last a few days in some states. But then looking at models like 538 where they give Trump only an 11% chance of winning it doesnt seem so tempting. If they offered 10/1 cashback Id take it now but I dont think it will get any better than 8s.

Im also keeping an eye on the close Senate race in Georgia and waiting for a few more polls before placing. The incumbent there David Perdue *should* be winning this Republican state easily but its not going well for him against the challenger Jon Oscoff. Oscoff burnt Perdue badly in a debate the other night and now Perdue has pulled out of the third and final debate, presumably fearing another collapse. It would be quite the upset but Oscoff seems to have momentum in the final stretch. Perdue has hitched his wagon to Trump in a big way so if the tide goes out on Trump then it likely goes out on him too.

Brussels Sprout · 30-10-2020 3:08pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

Oscoff burnt Perdue badly in a debate the other night and now Perdue has pulled out of the third and final debate, presumably fearing another collapse. It would be quite the upset but Oscoff seems to have momentum in the final stretch. Perdue has hitched his wagon to Trump in a big way so if the tide goes out on Trump then it likely goes out on him too.

The Georgian Republican party is a particularly odious grouping (up there with the Wisconsin Republicans). There was the race 2 years ago where the now Governor basically rigged his own election by not standing aside as the secretary of state and ensuring that the African American areas of Atlanta had massive difficulties in voting. Then who could forget Kelly Loeffler and her insider trading based on her confidential knowledge gained from a Senate hearing. The other Republican candidate in her race, Doug Collins seems like another charmer based on his tweets. Perdue then with his by accident/on purpose mangling of Kamala Harris's name for the entertainment of a MAGA rally. I hope they all lose.

Brussels Sprout · 30-10-2020 3:18pm

DK224 wrote: »

Well taking the early figures from Nevada using the Targetsmart early voting database (which is not foolproof) that gives you early voting based on voter registration and this is trending to be a smaller gap for the Dems going into election day than the 99k lead Hillary had in 2016.

There's a problem with using the voter registration data to project outcomes. Nate Silver talked about it on one of the recent 538 podcasts. It seems somewhat unintuitive but just because somebody is registered with a party doesn't mean that they will vote for their candidate. This is especially true with Trump.

He manages to both attract some registered Democrats to vote for him while at the same time repelling some registered Republicans completely. There's also the issue that some people may have switched allegiances decades ago but never bothered updating their registration data because they don't care about voting in primaries.

I think he actually said that the 538 model doesn't factor it in at all as a direct input. For the record they currently have NV as 90% for Biden, with him leading by 7% in the polls.

30-10-2020 3:41pm

Also Trump voters seem to be refraining from early voting or mail voting. Plus huge turnouts work against Republicans.

2020 US Election

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