2020 US Election

Muahahaha

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

The Georgian Republican party is a particularly odious grouping (up there with the Wisconsin Republicans). There was the race 2 years ago where the now Governor basically rigged his own election by not standing aside as the secretary of state and ensuring that the African American areas of Atlanta had massive difficulties in voting. Then who could forget Kelly Loeffler and her insider trading based on her confidential knowledge gained from a Senate hearing. The other Republican candidate in her race, Doug Collins seems like another charmer based on his tweets. Perdue then with his by accident/on purpose mangling of Kamala Harris's name for the entertainment of a MAGA rally. I hope they all lose.

yeah the Georgia race is quite interesting and could go either way. It would be quite the upset if Oscoff unseats Perdue but Perdue chickening out on the final debate is not a good look. He has hitched his wagon firmly to Trumps fate so it might just flip for Oscoff who has some momentum now. Will keep an eye on the new polls at the weekend, if they break for Oscoff I think he is worth a punt.

DK224

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There's a problem with using the voter registration data to project outcomes. Nate Silver talked about it on one of the recent 538 podcasts. It seems somewhat unintuitive but just because somebody is registered with a party doesn't mean that they will vote for their candidate. This is especially true with Trump.

He manages to both attract some registered Democrats to vote for him while at the same time repelling some registered Republicans completely. There's also the issue that some people may have switched allegiances decades ago but never bothered updating their registration data because they don't care about voting in primaries.

I think he actually said that the 538 model doesn't factor it in at all as a direct input. For the record they currently have NV as 90% for Biden, with him leading by 7% in the polls.

I'm glad to be betting against Nate Silver because outside of the Dem Echo Chamber he hasn't the most stellar of reputations. If you had been betting based on Nate Silvers recommendations since 2012 you would have lost money every election season.
The differential between his projected outcomes and the actual betting markets led him to criticise them this week so I think its worth taking him on.
Nate has Trumps odds of winning the election at 10% while the bookies have him at 36%

Brussels Sprout

DK224 wrote: »

I'm glad to be betting against Nate Silver because outside of the Dem Echo Chamber he hasn't the most stellar of reputations. If you had been betting based on Nate Silvers recommendations since 2012 you would have lost money every election season.

He was pilloried 4 years ago before the election because he gave Trump a 28% chance of winning. People thought that was way too bullish on Trump in a landscape where other models had him at 1-10%.

DK224 wrote: »

The differential between his projected outcomes and the actual betting markets led him to criticise them this week so I think its worth taking him on.
Nate has Trumps odds of winning the election at 10% while the bookies have him at 36%

For a market of this size and liquidity the bookies are just market makers. They balance the bets on one side of the ledge with ones on the other side (and take their cut along the way). In these cases the bookie isn't setting the price - their prices reflect the hive mind of the average punter.

Now, there's certainly an argument that the Wisdom of Crowds applies here and that the averaging of all of those punters opinions gives you an accurate representation of the true probabilities.

On the flip side, every so often you get a large event where the prices do not reflect reality. The classic example was the Conor McGregor vs Floyd MayWeather fight from 2017. McGregor was a literal novice fighting one of the greatest boxers of all time and due to the weight of bets coming in on McGregor it was possible to get a 25% return on MayWeather.

It sounds like we differ on which type of event this will be and that's fine. Best of luck with your bets but I hope that you lose since I've got my money on the other side.

DK224

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

He was pilloried 4 years ago before the election because he gave Trump a 28% chance of winning. People thought that was way too bullish on Trump in a landscape where other models had him at 1-10%.



For a market of this size and liquidity the bookies are just market makers. They balance the bets on one side of the ledge with ones on the other side (and take their cut along the way). In these cases the bookie isn't setting the price - their prices reflect the hive mind of the average punter.

Now, there's certainly an argument that the Wisdom of Crowds applies here and that the averaging of all of those punters opinions gives you an accurate representation of the true probabilities.

On the flip side, every so often you get a large event where the prices do not reflect reality. The classic example was the Conor McGregor vs Floyd MayWeather fight from 2017. McGregor was a literal novice fighting one of the greatest boxers of all time and due to the weight of bets coming in on McGregor it was possible to get a 25% return on MayWeather.

It sounds like we differ on which type of event this will be and that's fine. Best of luck with your bets but I hope that you lose since I've got my money on the other side.

I wasn't offering an opinion on what odds the bookies should or shouldn't be offering, just the difference on their pricing compared to the odds Silver currently has and his lashing out at them last week.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Does anyone know what the complexities are for payouts on election night?

I've read the market rules, but as always they seem a bit deliberately vague and open to different interpretations.

I've a couple of large bets on the betfair exchange for example. Anyone know what the different permutations might be?

antimatterx

Quick question

Bet365 have a market to win only. I assume this mean to take the white house and not the popular vote.

IE If you picked the Democrats in 2016, you would have lost despite them getting the most votes.

antimatterx

antimatterx wrote: »

Quick question

Bet365 have a market to win only. I assume this mean to take the white house and not the popular vote.

IE If you picked the Democrats in 2016, you would have lost despite them getting the most votes.

Your assumption is correct.

You can bet on the popular vote winner on betfair. Probably other platforms too.

Brussels Sprout

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Does anyone know what the complexities are for payouts on election night?

I've read the market rules, but as always they seem a bit deliberately vague and open to different interpretations.

I've a couple of large bets on the betfair exchange for example. Anyone know what the different permutations might be?

Ok lets go through it bit by bit:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.

The voting public don't actually vote directly for President - instead they vote for some delegates to represent them when the Electoral College convenes on December 14th. As such after election day/week we can only know each candidate's projected votes, not their actual votes.

After the votes are counted (or possibly even before then if it's not close) a state can be called for one candidate or the other. If the total of these electoral votes is greater than 270 then the rest of the process is seen as a foregone conclusion and they're anointed as the de-facto next President, even though they technically are not until they are elected by the electoral college.

Betfair are basically saying that they will go along with this and not wait for the convention either to declare the winner and pay out.

Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market.

A "faithless elector" is a delegate who disobeys the will of the majority of their own state's voters and casts their Electoral College vote for someone else. A number of delegates from states that Clinton won in 2016 did this.

Betfair are basically saying that in the unlikely event of this happening and it altering the course of the election of a President they would ignore it and go with the original projected winner.

In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

It is technically possible that no candidate will reach a majority of Electoral College votes (currently set at 270). For that to happen a 3rd party candidate would need to win enough states to block either of the other two candidates from gaining a majority. A third party candidate hasn't won any Electoral College votes in decades though. The last time it happened was George Wallace in 1968 (Southern states revolting against the Civil rights act). Even then though, Richard Nixon won a majority of the E.C. votes.

You have to go way back to find the last time nobody won a majority - The election of 1824. 4 candidates, Adams, Jackson, Crawford and Clay won states and none of them got anywhere near a majority.

That meant that the 12th Amendment kicked in: The top 3 went to an election by the members of the House of Representatives where each state got 1 vote. There were only 24 states back then and John Quincy Adams got the votes of 13 of them and was elected President.

TLDR: With the modern 2-party system this is unlikely to ever happen again so BetFair are just covering themselves here with this wording

Edit: The 12th Amendment would also apply if it was a 269-269 tie. This is a real, if unlikely, possibility this year

This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

More unlikely stuff

10/03/2020 10:30am – Once voting (whether postal, electronic or at the ballot box) begins in the year 2020 for the US Presidential Election 2020, the election will be deemed to have taken place for the purposes of this market. We will then settle the market as per our rules regardless of whether the election process is fully completed in 2020 or beyond.

This bit perplexes me. I have read it several times and the only conclusion that I can draw from it is that they have made an error here. Voting began weeks ago so by the above wording they would consider this election to have taken place and would need to settle the market. That makes no sense. I think this can be safely ignored.

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

This bit is pertinent given that Donald Trump has repeatedly ruled out vowing to accept the results of the election. There could therefore arise a scenario where Biden is projected to win but Trump does not accept this. Betfair are basically saying that they may have to make a call themselves about who won even if the result is not accepted by all sides.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Cheers for that BS.

They've given themselves some wiggle room, but not surprising with a potentially crazy election like this one I suppose.

Outlaw Pete

Backed Trump at 2.95 to get reelected and whilst not as confident he'll get the popular vote, at 7.8 I had to have some of that.

paddythere

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Does anyone know what the complexities are for payouts on election night?

I've read the market rules, but as always they seem a bit deliberately vague and open to different interpretations.

I've a couple of large bets on the betfair exchange for example. Anyone know what the different permutations might be?

Wondering the same. I think a Trump victory will be declared by Republicans but there will be all sorts of allegations and skullduggery involved.

Brussels Sprout

paddythere wrote: »

Wondering the same. I think a Trump victory will be declared by Republicans but there will be all sorts of allegations and skullduggery involved.

Reading in between the lines of Betfair's rules anyway they won't be paying out on Trump in the scenario where he declares victory while votes are still being counted and states hang in the balance.

paddythere

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Reading in between the lines of Betfair's rules anyway they won't be paying out on Trump in the scenario where he declares victory while votes are still being counted and states hang in the balance.

They can hardly pay out on Democrats if Trump declares victory and Courts side with him though

Brussels Sprout

paddythere wrote: »

They can hardly pay out on Democrats if Trump declares victory and Courts side with him though

Probably not no. Here's what they say:

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

Judging by what happened in 2000 a Supreme Court might take up to a month to happen and it seems (my interpretation) from the highlighted bit that Betfair would wait for it.

Brussels Sprout

Still have one last chunk of my bankroll to bet on Biden. I had it waiting for a match at 1.55 for the last 4 days or so but no takers. Current price is 1.50.

I wonder what the likelihood is for prices tomorrow? It seems that it will mostly be Trump supporters voting so I wonder could that have some kind of visual affect and bump up the numbers.

Rjd2

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Still have one last chunk of my bankroll to bet on Biden. I had it waiting for a match at 1.55 for the last 4 days or so but no takers. Current price is 1.50.

I wonder what the likelihood is for prices tomorrow? It seems that it will mostly be Trump supporters voting so I wonder could that have some kind of visual affect and bump up the numbers.

Depends on Florida doesn't it?

I think that's called early enough, if Trump win the market will be insane, genuinely would not be shocked to see him go odds on.

If he loses Florida, its done, I don't see any other path whatsoever,,,,,,,could be a train then for Biden.

It could be like Boris in 2019, exit poll gave them a huge majority and it was dead as a betting market 2 minutes later:eek:

Crazy because the Theresa May election and 2016 Trump election were demented on Betfair, anyone who is half serious about betting and were trading that night and lost money .....

BQQ

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Still have one last chunk of my bankroll to bet on Biden. I had it waiting for a match at 1.55 for the last 4 days or so but no takers. Current price is 1.50.

I wonder what the likelihood is for prices tomorrow? It seems that it will mostly be Trump supporters voting so I wonder could that have some kind of visual affect and bump up the numbers.

Already happening
Biden out to 1.64 on Betfair
Crazy stuff

okidoki987

PP saying 93% of the bets they are taking on it are on Trump, Ladbrokes 3 out
of 4 bets they are taking are on Trump.
A British business man bet €5 million on Trump at 1.85.
Otherside, Betfair exchange reporting a UK resident bet €1.29 million on
Biden at 1.64.

Guess some of those reported bets are old considering the prices they were placed at.
Expecting to see some massive swings later on today.

Brussels Sprout

okidoki987 wrote: »

PP saying 93% of the bets they are taking on it are on Trump, Ladbrokes 3 out
of 4 bets they are taking are on Trump.

It's like McGregor-MayWeather all over again (in terms of the disparity in volumes)

The smart money that time was not with the high-volume candidate. Hoping that that's the case again this time.

Just dropped some more on Biden at 1.60 (that's where he's at now). Have one last final piece that I'll leave for tonight

Loafing Oaf

Will the betting markets close as soon as the first polls close or how does it work?

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Will the betting markets close as soon as the first polls close or how does it work?

They will keep open until a result is known for that/each market.

BQQ

okidoki987 wrote: »

They will keep open until a result is known for that/each market.

Biden down to 1.47 on Betfair
Has sanity finally begun to set in?

ianburke

my 4/1 never got matched so i've taken it down. haven't any interest in the outcome now. best of luck to all the biden backers, and Accumulator! too!

Muahahaha

Trump currently 3.1 on Betfair exchange, Biden 1.47.

The Economist forecast now puts Bidens chances of winning the electoral college at 96%
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

If they're right that 1.47 on Biden will look like free money in 12 hours time

okidoki987

BQQ wrote: »

Biden down to 1.47 on Betfair
Has sanity finally begun to set in?

Possibly but early days.
You have to wait for the rumour machine to start up.
Some will be true, some most will be false but it's a minefield to sort them out in time.
You will always get people who have open positions, putting out false rumours to "help" their positions.

okidoki987

Muahahaha wrote: »

Trump currently 3.1 on Betfair exchange, Biden 1.47.

The Economist forecast now puts Bidens chances of winning the electoral college at 96%
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

If they're right that 1.47 on Biden will look like free money in 12 hours time

Could be all right.
€356 million matched so far :rolleyes: and that's just on next president market.
Even assuming every part of that is on 2% commission rate (unlikely), that is over €7 million in commission.
Assume that why Paddy Power shares are hitting all time highs.

Loafing Oaf

okidoki987 wrote: »

They will keep open until a result is known for that/each market.

But are they not running a massive risk that way?

Rjd2 wrote: »

Depends on Florida doesn't it?

I think that's called early enough, if Trump win the market will be insane, genuinely would not be shocked to see him go odds on.

If he loses Florida, its done, I don't see any other path whatsoever,,,,,,,could be a train then for Biden.

If someone gets a heads-up from a mate in the Florida count centre that Biden has it, before the media get word, could they not make a killing?

Brussels Sprout

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But are they not running a massive risk that way?

With a market of this size all the bets on one side are balanced by bets on the other side. If there is an imbalance in the volume of bets, the price moves to act as an equilibrium point.

For smaller bookies they might not have this same liquidity so what they often do is offset their risk onto other bookmakers in order to reduce their exposure to a negative outcome.

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But are they not running a massive risk that way?




If someone gets a heads-up from a mate in the Florida count centre that Biden has it, before the media get word, could they not make a killing?

No the odds will have changed to probably 1.02 area.

They could but they would have to get hold of someone who could get a large bet on and they may not be able to do it in time.

Wouldn't be the first time something like that has happened, used to happen all the time in shows like XFactor.
Some guy on the XFactor got fired years ago for texting his mates with the results of the eliminations before they were made public.

byronbay2

It's about to get exciting! Have emptied the entire BF clip on Biden @ 1.52. Unfortunately, did the same on Hilary 4 years ago so only hoping to get back to even!

okidoki987

byronbay2 wrote: »

It's about to get exciting! Have emptied the entire BF clip on Biden @ 1.52. Unfortunately, did the same on Hilary 4 years ago so only hoping to get back to even!

GL.
Currently watching and debating about having a bet on it .

Muahahaha

Early Florida results showing Trump is down about 2-3% on his 2016 numbers. Only about 10 counties are in though so its early days. Betfair is still 1.49 on Biden and 3 on Trump.

Loafing Oaf

Trump suddenly in close to evens with some bookies:eek: Wonder what's driving that...

okidoki987

On Biden at 1.77 which is either going to be or :eek:.
Let's see .

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Trump suddenly in close to evens with some bookies:eek: Wonder what's driving that...

Rumour he's done well in Florida?

Loafing Oaf

okidoki987 wrote: »

Rumour he's done well in Florida?

Would winning Florida put him truly neck and neck overall?

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Would winning Florida put him truly neck and neck overall?

Not really, think it's a consequence of last time. Biden should still win w/o Florida, especially since it looks like it's just Miami that's going to cost him. But last time it was the first of many little disappointments.

Biden touched 1.9 on betfair a few mins ago!

okidoki987

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Would winning Florida put him truly neck and neck overall?

Florida is one of the key states or so I've heard.
Imagine if we had a count like they do :eek:.

okidoki987

Biden heading back down currently at 1.55 now.

franglan

In on Biden at 5/6. Ohio counties looking very promising for general turn to Biden in mid west.

Loafing Oaf

Biden in close to 1/2 with most bookies. I'm guessing the picture is firming up in his favour in the blue wall of Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Michigan. If he wins those that effectively settles it

greenfield21

Trump now favourite

Biden 3.25 now!!

JoeCasey

Trump 4/9
Biden 17/10

paddy

greenfield21

greenfield21 wrote: »

AZ,MI,WI,PA,NC 305/6-232 Trump wins.

Already give my reasons so not going drivel on but trumps ground game, inaccurate polls due to virus, voter registrations, people voting with there pockets- polls showing satisfaction with economy. Where biden needs to win votes climate change and reducing oil output will not help him.

Should have put more on this, still could be a suprise in midwest but doubt it..

ianburke

trump 1.27 now.

does anyone know what happened to Accumulator(aka the only bloke who seems to be on trump and took a lot of abuse)? i thought he had left the thread after the stick he was getting but i can't seem to find him now or see his posts which is quite odd.

ianburke

ianburke wrote: »

trump 1.27 now.

does anyone know what happened to Accumulator(aka the only bloke who seems to be on trump and took a lot of abuse)? i thought he had left the thread after the stick he was getting but i can't seem to find him now or see his posts which is quite odd.

Was he banned and changed his name?

adrian522

I think he caught the China Flu from Sleepy Joe.

FatRat

Astronomical money going on this and that's just on the 1 presidential winner market.

There has been 55m matched in the past 5 hours on Betfair exchange.

Has anyone ever seen a more liquid market before?