Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Hello All, This is just a friendly reminder to read the Forum Charter where you wish to post before posting in it. :)

2020 US Election

1246717

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 686 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    not often you can lay a 15/1 shot at 2.9 surely your're filling your boots?

    will throw 50 on him if he hits 4/1 just for the interest. the way he's drifting that bet may be on this weekend!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭ bobbyy gee


    what are the odds of trump dying from covid before election


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Folks have regained their senses after the news that 'man has a flu'.
    Back and stabilised to what it was prior 2.5 & 2.6 (BF) on re-opening bookie markets.
    It's just another spin of the earths orbit folks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,008 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Trump drifting to 2.8 on Betfair.

    Biden now as low as 1.6.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,110 ✭✭✭ Augme


    Market suspended again after news of Trump going to hospital has broken. Biden down to 1.51. not sure why Betfair are suspending it though, especially after it was announced he had covid and bets had been voided for that reason.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Not looking good for a Trump win right now, reports coming out that the White House have been lying all day about how serious his condition is and he had trouble getting on and off the helicopter.

    We could yet end up with the grey statue that is Mike Pence. If that happens then Joe Biden will be the next US President by a landslide.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,554 ✭✭✭✭ okidoki987


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Not looking good for a Trump win right now, reports coming out that the White House have been lying all day about how serious his condition is and he had trouble getting on and off the helicopter.

    He didn't look that bad getting off the helicopter.

    [/QUOTE] We could yet end up with the grey statue that is Mike Pence. If that happens then Joe Biden will be the next US President by a landslide.[/QUOTE]

    Very true.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Market still suspended. Looks like the lowest trades carried out before that happened were Biden @ 1.51.

    2 senators and the president of Notre Dame all appear to have contracted the virus at a White House reception for Amy Coney Barrett last week where people gathered mask-less and indoors. Jesus Christ...


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"

    Going by Oddschecker it seems all of the major firms have suspended trading.

    As an alternative approach, Predictit appears to be still operating (The site that Nate Silver derisively refers to as being populated by Scottish teens). They have Biden at 65c which I believe equates to a 65% probability or ~ 1.54 in decimal odds.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 11,613 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Anyone know of an open market on the US election? Betfair and the exchange are both suspended as is Paddy Power who have a statement on their US election page saying "Market suspended while we await clarity over the health of Donald Trump"

    betdaq and smarkets?


  • Registered Users Posts: 36 ShaneODub


    I see Biden was priced at 1.2 before the Betfair market was suspended again. Quite close to fivethirthyeight's current model that puts him at 80% likelihood to win.




  • Even in a scenario where he recovers, probably gonna face long term consequences. Plus any angle of attempting to attack Biden on his health are virtually gone. Also looks like no debates remaining outside of the VP debates. A landslide looks increasingly likely tbh.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Even in a scenario where he recovers, probably gonna face long term consequences. Plus any angle of attempting to attack Biden on his health are virtually gone. Also looks like no debates remaining outside of the VP debates. A landslide looks increasingly likely tbh.

    And just as you say that out comes the first poll suggesting it could well be a landslide, NBC/Wall St Journal poll is now giving Biden a whopping 14 point lead nationally which is up from 8% in the previous poll.

    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1312745006348808192

    Poll was taken after the debates but before Trump announced he has the virus. Other polls are saying that more than half the American public think Trump got the virus because he didnt take it seriously, ie Trump is to blame. There is no sympathy votes for him in that. Rumours also that some of Trumps campaign staff are refusing to go to work as they dont feel it is safe, like rats that are deserting a sinking ship.


  • Registered Users Posts: 64 ✭✭ Cirrus Incus


    Trump winning now will be a bigger election upset than Truman in 1948.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    ShaneODub wrote: »
    I see Biden was priced at 1.2 before the Betfair market was suspended again. Quite close to fivethirthyeight's current model that puts him at 80% likelihood to win.

    That wasn't matched though - it's just the current highest available price. If you click on the icon on the left-hand side of Biden's name you can see what prices were matched. Lowest so far on him has been 1.51 although that'll likely fall quite a bit when the market reopens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Betfair Exchange is suspended again anyway, you would wonder what is going on in the background there


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Trump is back, and so are (most) of the markets.
    Rep party to win with 4more years of MAGA @2.75.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Looks like the market sentiment on the manner of Trump leaving Walter Reed has been positive toward him. Biden up to 1.59 now. This is in stark contrast to the most recent polls, although they lag by a number of days. Let's see what the next few days bring...


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,008 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Biden way ahead in some polls. Even has a good lead in Arizona.

    Trump is a busted flush.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Back to 2.5 to 2.62 across all major markets, so back to what it was when this thread started.
    Confidence is high with this one, the Donald, 4MY.


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,008 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Trump 2.86 on betfair.

    Not looking good for him.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    6 wrote: »
    Trump 2.86 on betfair.
    Not looking good for him.
    Small price and the same price as before (pre the CCP-Virus).

    Factor in comission and low liquidity with BFE.

    2.5 or so is the going average bookie price across the spectrum of vendors.
    Confidence is high, looking good, even after brushing off the infection.

    The big question now is what what happen if elderly Joe catches it in the next few weeks...


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,008 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Small price and the same price as before (pre the CCP-Virus).

    Factor in comission and low liquidity with BFE.

    2.5 or so is the going average bookie price across the spectrum of vendors.
    Confidence is high, looking good, even after brushing off the infection.

    The big question now is what what happen if elderly Joe catches it in the next few weeks...


    You're in deep in Trump I'm guessing!

    Dangerous game. He's 74, obese and has Covid. Has he a heart condition too?

    Could easily be unfit to run for election


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    6 wrote: »
    You're in deep in Trump I'm guessing!
    Dangerous game. He's 74, obese and has Covid. Has he a heart condition too?
    Could easily be unfit to run for election

    Waiting for live markets, to avail of x10 again, or for Joe to start bleeding out of the eyes again on live CNN TV, Joe had a couple of brain aneurysm in the past and will be an elderly 78 by November, a dangerous aul age, so you're deep in the elder Joe?

    Another market of interest is KH @120+, she's on her tippy toes waiting to take over from the stand in, could easily push him down some stairs or something, very power hungry and focused.


  • Registered Users Posts: 686 ✭✭✭ ianburke


    after the last election i'd sooner blow my money on trump. i don't trust these polls at all. wasn't clinton about 1.15 before a vote was counted? and she hit 1.06 on the exchange - brexit was identical bettting wise. have a back up for trump at 4/1...probably won't get matched unless its during the counting - but if hes anythiny more than 2/1 that night ill be backing him and couldn't care less about the polls after those two events i mentioned


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,008 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Waiting for live markets, to avail of x10 again, or for Joe to start bleeding out of the eyes again on live CNN TV, Joe had a couple of brain aneurysm in the past and will be an elderly 78 by November, a dangerous aul age, so you're deep in the elder Joe?

    Another market of interest is KH @120+, she's on her tippy toes waiting to take over from the stand in, could easily push him down some stairs or something, very power hungry and focused.

    Biden is 77, isn't obese and hasn't covid. Not sure if he has a heart condition like Trump. Don't think so.

    Harris or Pence could well be worth a fiver as backup.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    6 wrote: »
    Biden is 77, isn't obese and hasn't covid. Not sure if he has a heart condition like Trump. Don't think so.
    Well 78 this November, and the China Flu can bite anyone at any time.

    Both of them have had various nips, tucks and procedures over the years and both perhaps on a cocktail of typical oap meds to keep their cogs turning.

    One simple sign of health (lifeforce, or energy) is the voice and ability to raise ones voice. Joe is simply unable to raise his voice now, even has to lean in towards microphones. Suspect there is a weak handshake present also. Something also seems 'not right' with his eyes.

    Whereas Donald can blast out his views at elevated decibels whenever needed, along with a good solid air fist pump.
    6 wrote: »
    Harris or Pence could well be worth a fiver as backup.
    Harris on BFE a good consideration, did blip 320 for a very short while (160 currently), this will increase as the time nears (t-4wks) and her technical chances diminish, even then, has hurdles to jump, no harm with small coinage on 320-360(+).

    Factor in a VP debate 02:00 GMT (Thurs), both of these 'spring chickens' should be able to equally hold their ground anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,988 ✭✭✭ BQQ


    Pence has got to be worth a small interest
    hard to see the Donald being fit by election day - he's looking very frail

    Pence will likely keep the republican core and sway more of the middle ground than Trump
    could be a real smash & grab by the GOP


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Sure Pence worthy of a token coin at 100/1 (will increase as days pass), he's a fairly cool cat compared to the Don.
    One risk for KH would be an over empahsis on the black women angle, hard policy will always beats soft pity.

    All Don needs to do if focus the high energy of his Tw posting, into deep breathing, particualy at the 'Day 10' point of the CCP Virus.
    Not out of the woods yet, but is kicking fallen branches out of the way while heading towards a clearning.


Advertisement