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2020 US Election

  • 23-06-2020 8:54pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 2,485 ✭✭✭ Andrew00


    Trump is currently best priced 6/4 with Biden at 8/11.

    I can't believe how big a price Trump is, surely Biden won't win


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    @2.5 is reasonable, 6mth peak perhaps. The 3.4 would be a more ideal target, which might well happen yet.
    Only recently have started adding it as a line selection with other wildcards
    e.g. Double on MC for ukpl @81 (200/1) and for a low stake high yield accas (fourfolds typically).

    Election night itself might be the best value, thanks to media bias saturation.
    Athough after all the cryin' that followed '16, we'll hardly see those golden numbers again
    e.g. 9.0 (pipped briefly at 11) on 9th Nov 2016.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,119 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Andrew00 wrote: »
    Trump is currently best priced 6/4 with Biden at 8/11.

    I can't believe how big a price Trump is, surely Biden won't win

    Lots to play for over the next few months but if Trump is to win he better start clawing back his poll ratings quick, the latest NYT poll has Trump 14% behind, other polls are 10-12% in difference. Trump leads Biden on male voters by 6% but Biden is hammering Trump amongst females where he has a 22% lead.

    Of course there is usually an October Surprise so who knows what could happen when that drops. Hillary was cruising in all polls in 2016 but then the grab them by the pussy tape dropped and it looked like Trump was finished. But then Hillarys emails investigation got re-opened and the media just hammered and hammered that story every day before the election.

    I started a thread on political betting here but there was no interest while all the George Floyd stuff was going on. Feel free to bump it though if you are into political betting, its mainly what I like to play around with for a bit of fun at election time
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=113733568


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    2.75 today, will be interesting to see how much further the price will creep.

    LPool (went as low as 20/1) spoilt the 200/1 small double featuring POTUS.
    Longer term, similar wildcard Wolves (for UKPL21) combined with Donald might get better double odds, but ideally will wait for the 3.4 Donald target price.

    A more recent theory of mine is that Joe simply won't stand come November. Due to ill health the old chap will be withdrawn and replaced. Most likley a female will stand in (possible pending VP nominee such as Warren/Rice/Harris). Big numbers for any of them to stand as the actual DN come election day e.g. Warren 200/1.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    As low as 2.15 (WHill) for the Trump today, sure is a bit of a drop, 22% in the space of a week or so, to near evens.

    Can't blame it all on Joe's VP, Harris is actually better than Biden himself, and could snatch up the token wimin/ethnic voters.
    Still reckon old Joe will burn out well before November.

    Hence [email protected] is an interesting offering to win instead, or to be the DN ticket come closer to [email protected](est).
    For Biden not to run is just 8.0, little value and not even sure if hold valid right up to election day.

    If you missed [email protected], may well have to wait now, till election night.
    Or an occassional 24hr blip, if he throws a bible at someone's head.
    Best range variance of course will be the big night itself, circa 1-2am for live counting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    As low as 2.15 (WHill) for the Trump today, sure is a bit of a drop, 22% in the space of a week or so, to near evens.

    I've noticed this trend as well and I can't make any sense of it. There hasn't been a lot of recent polling and what little of it there was has generally shown Biden's lead holding up (bar one CCN poll that showed him with only a +4 lead but that appears to be an outlier). The only thing of note to have happened in the past week is Harris getting the VP pick and that seems to have been seen positively.

    Is it just some kind of reversion to the mean affect or what?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,528 ✭✭✭ PieOhMy


    I've noticed this trend as well and I can't make any sense of it. There hasn't been a lot of recent polling and what little of it there was has generally shown Biden's lead holding up (bar one CCN poll that showed him with only a +4 lead but that appears to be an outlier). The only thing of note to have happened in the past week is Harris getting the VP pick and that seems to have been seen positively.

    Is it just some kind of reversion to the mean affect or what?

    Just guessing but maybe closer to the date has increased liquidity in this market and the money is coming in for trump making the odds shorten?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭ franglan


    Few euro on Harris at 110/1 on betfair exchange.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,124 ✭✭✭ The real mccoy 91


    Jumped on trump at 7/4 a couple of weeks ago doubled with the baltimore ravens to win the superbowl @13/2. By no means an expert but my train of thought was that trump had enough time to regroup and out campaign biden despite the ****show of a year he has had separately he is going to chew biden up and spit him out in the debates which will swing it trumps way. He has now shortened and will continue to do so I reckon


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    By no means an expert but my train of thought was that trump had enough time to regroup and out campaign biden despite the ****show of a year he has had separately he is going to chew biden up and spit him out in the debates which will swing it trumps way. He has now shortened and will continue to do so I reckon

    I'm not so sure about this. I have been watching his nightly press conferences since he has resumed them a few weeks ago and he is looking increasingly unhinged. The Trump team have been making a lot of noise about the mental health of Biden but their own man does not look to be in a healthy frame of mind.

    Some nights he comes out and he's clearly on some kind of tranquilsers. Other nights he seems to be extremely stimulated to the point of coming across as manic. On a typical night he starts by droning through some notes, that he clearly hasn't rehearsed, before cutting to questions from the media. As those progress he gets more and more wound up and his answers tend to be become more incoherent and erratic. At some point though some instinct kicks in, usually around the 45 minute mark, and he leaves before inflicting to much self harm.

    I believe the debates are 90 minutes or even 2 hours long. Biden will almost certainly make some bad gaffes but by the end of those time slots Trump has the potential to be coming across as mentally deranged or even slurring his words. A lot of apolitical people (ie swing voters) may tune into those debates who may not have watched him speak at length in 4 years. I think those people may be surprised at the difference in him between then and now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Either the Rep Convention is going swimmingly, or the cities with their Dem leadership that feature looting, burnt out cars and business owners having to protect their livelyhoods - is giving Trump his shortest (ever) odds to win, again.

    This morning just evens, avg:
    G4ObGqR.png

    Even the (int'l) BBC news channel (which is also broadcast on PBS America) had a clip of a black protester (proudly) claiming 'burning down businesses doesn't cost lives'.
    'Grand so, just live-lyhoods.

    The only other question now is how much more value can be squeezed out of the market for KH to replace Joe and win (a double task)
    Today there is small liquidty available @200, 250(+) isn't out of the question perhaps as time progresses.

    However if Joe (ever) gets into a live long debate and presents himself as in anyway unhealthy, babbling or incapable, this will drop like a stone.

    Pence at 350 for POTUS20 is also a generous number, but Trump appears more relaxed than ever.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 43,859 ✭✭✭✭ 6


    Trump surely won't get the swing states again.

    Covid and the unemployment rate has killed him. Can't believe he's so short. Great lay price.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    He's looking more relaxed and less orange, (more mahogony) perhaps that suits the actual television lens (optics) better.
    The crowds of yoof running amock burning down businesses helps his position of law and order greatly, way hugely indeed.

    One very unpleasent incident, widely reported was an agry BLM mob forcing a mid age lady to raise her fist outside a diner (she was a supporter regardless, but just didn't enjoy the sudden intimidation while having a meal).

    Still haven't seen/heard much from Joe. Saw KHarris blip @260 over on BFE. The absoloute ceiling price appears to be 375, can only occur now if she upsets someone.

    Don't forget until November (Wave 2, proper) the economy should see growth and new records broken on the DJIA.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    'Spoils and 365 have both candidates at parity (matching prices) of 1.9(1) today.
    Anyone keen on Joe, perhaps now is your time, while the slick RNC rocks it across cathode ray tubes (or HDR IPS LEDs).
    Would only consider such short prices as 3mth acca line items.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    I got a match on a Biden @ 2.00 bet that I had left on Betfair last week more so in hope than expectation. Not sure what's driving these prices - apart from sentiment and hunches. The few post-RNC polls have shown Trump with a small bump but Biden still with a solid lead.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Also available today on traditional books such as B'Way @1.95 (BFE match, with their commission).
    One advantage with such short evens type prices, on the long haul is they can often be used as line selections on acca builders.
    Still wouldn't touch Joe at 2.0, can hardly remember what he looks like, haven't seen him on screens for months.

    Missed KH on BFE touching 450 in recent times, will dangle a small bit of 360 for any lay takers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Still wouldn't touch Joe at 2.0, can hardly remember what he looks like, haven't seen him on screens for months.

    He's not really a very inspiring candidate but he's not a very easy target to hit in the way that Clinton was. Trump is struggling to come up with a cohesive plan of attack. It seems they had an entire catalogue of material lined up for Bernie Sanders and they're just using that anyway. The only people buying the whole "Biden is a candidate of the socialist left" are people who were only going to vote for Trump anyway.

    What swung it for Trump 4 years ago is that of the people who disliked both candidates, they swung something like 2-1 in favour of him. This time around Biden's unfavourables are a lot lower than Clintons so there is literally less of those voters.

    Also Trump isn't the unknown factor that he was 4 years ago. A lot of Obama voters took a chance on him because they were still hurting after 2008 and they wanted to take a gamble on him to shake things up. He hasn't done anything to fundamentally change the lot of a lot of those blue collar workers apart from the usual Republican orthodoxy. If he's going to lose voters to Biden those will be the most likely to switch back which is why the DNC was focused on that section of the electorate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    More shortening on the mighty Trump, down to 1.83, with Joe up to 2.0 in many instances.

    FaHYc3i.png

    Any fans of Joe (90% of the echo chamber, over in CA/Pols threads) should get their top dollar on him, 2.0 is the biggest price to date.
    The only real interesting arb/offset against DT is that of KH, just a matter of time before she steps in, ideally before 3rd Nov.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    The only real interesting arb/offset against DT is that of KH, just a matter of time before she steps in, ideally before 3rd Nov.

    Not sure what you're basing this on exactly. The only way that Biden won't be on the ballot in November is if he literally dies or has a stroke in between now and then - which given that it's 9 weeks away seems like an increasingly remote possibility. He's the Democratic candidate and going by the only real indicator that we have, the polls, he's doing a fine job. More to the point, he doesn't need to do very much since Trump's biggest enemy is Trump himself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭ todolist


    Trump is a winner.He always comes up smelling of roses.The Opinion polls are totally unreliable.They're often used to inflate the figures for President Trump's opponents in the hope Trump's supporters will get demoralised.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    todolist wrote: »
    Trump is a winner.He always comes up smelling of roses.

    Has he though? He won the presidency 4 years ago - so he's 1/1 in presidential elections. I wouldn't be throwing out sweeping statements like "always" on a sample size of 1 though.

    All of the elections since then have been disappointing for the Republicans. They got obliterated in the House in 2018, mostly driven by voters coming out to vote against the party of Trump. Had it not been for the fact that it was a favourable lineup of states in the Senate they would have lost that too.
    todolist wrote: »
    The Opinion polls are totally unreliable.They're often used to inflate the figures for President Trump's opponents in the hope Trump's supporters will get demoralised.

    That's quite the claim. Any polling agency in particular you think are actively working against Trump? Any evidence even?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 64 ✭✭✭ Cirrus Incus


    I'm not that familiar with political betting. Why are Biden's odds so poor right now when all the forecast models (The Economist .etc) are stilll predicting that he'll likely win?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    I'm not that familiar with political betting. Why are Biden's odds so poor right now when all the forecast models (The Economist .etc) are stilll predicting that he'll likely win?

    Guess there are thousands of theories and opinion (see any the other various threads, full of heated debate, and echo chambering).

    In a nutshell Joe isn't doing as well as should be, some now even think they (Dem) choose the wrong guy.
    The bookies (all of them) have been hacking down the price for Trump (again for various reasons).

    Only primary concern for politcal bets is profit, forecasting and likely percentions of a future event.

    E.g. If you have (decimal) 2.75+ for one chap, 2.5+ for the other (if desired), and small dip of 300+ for the wilcard, can't go far wrong.

    Won't really see any sudden great variance until live counting, aside from very temporary dramatics in the meantime.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    I'm not that familiar with political betting. Why are Biden's odds so poor right now when all the forecast models (The Economist .etc) are stilll predicting that he'll likely win?

    Nobody is quite sure. 538's Nate Silver was pondering this very question last night, pointing out that Biden has an 8 point lead in Wisconsin (one of the swingiest swing states that's also the focus of street violence at the moment).

    I saw someone in the comments underneath that post speculate that perhaps a lot of people who despise Trump are making bets on him as some sort of a hedging exercise.

    I think there's a fair bit of recency bias at play as well. People thinking: Trump came from behind to win in 2016, therefore that's what will happen again.


    Here's the thread:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301288272514240514


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭ IAMAMORON


    The reason why Trump comes out with obnoxious toxic shight every single day of the week is to enable his PR team to examine the fallout of what he says via the Meta Data of the US electorate. Please believe, there is a method to his madness.

    This Meta Data has been collected for the last 5 years and now allows Trump's election strategists to focus on what to say, where to say it and when.

    Get on Trump, it has been in the bag for a while.


  • Subscribers Posts: 36,628 ✭✭✭✭ sydthebeat


    1. calculations are showing that Biden needs to be about 6 points better in the popular vote than Trump to have a better than 50 / 50 chance to win.

    2. Trump has the edge in the electoral college vote system; in that the states that carry more electoral college votes are red or are swing

    3. Trump has already sown the seed of non acceptance of the result and has publicly said the only way he will lose is if the vote is rigged

    4. Trumps influence on USPS will mean delayed or missing counting of postal votes, which will be DEM in the majority.



    thats 4 reasons i can see why the money is following Trump so far


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    IAMAMORON wrote: »
    The reason why Trump comes out with obnoxious toxic shight every single day of the week is to enable his PR team to examine the fallout of what he says via the Meta Data of the US electorate. Please believe, there is a method to his madness.

    This Meta Data has been collected for the last 5 years and now allows Trump's election strategists to focus on what to say, where to say it and when.

    Get on Trump, it has been in the bag for a while.


    I don't buy this whole "He's playing 4-dimensional chess while everyone else is playing checkers" reasoning behind his outbursts. He's being saying crazy stuff for years before he was running for president. Often times the simplest explanation fits, which in this case, is that he has poor impulse control and just blurts out whatever crosses his mind via tweet.

    sydthebeat wrote: »
    1. calculations are showing that Biden needs to be about 6 points better in the popular vote than Trump to have a better than 50 / 50 chance to win.

    2. Trump has the edge in the electoral college vote system; in that the states that carry more electoral college votes are red or are swing

    3. Trump has already sown the seed of non acceptance of the result and has publicly said the only way he will lose is if the vote is rigged

    4. Trumps influence on USPS will mean delayed or missing counting of postal votes, which will be DEM in the majority.

    1 & 2 are basically the same point since the reason Biden needs to win by more is because of the Electoral College advantage for Republicans. I don't believe it's 6% though - more like 3-4% for a 50/50 chance. Clinton had a 2% advantage in votes in 2016 and lost by a sliver in several key states.

    #3 - Whether he accepts it nor not is a moot point if he gets beaten, unless it's super close and they can pull a Bush 2000 in Florida on the Supreme Court.

    #4 There is no evidence to support the fact that postal votes will be from supporters of one party or the other. I suspect that more younger voters will take the risk to vote in person and that's a demographic that has traditionally supported the Democratic party.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    1 & 2 are basically the same point since the reason Biden needs to win by more is because of the Electoral College advantage for Republicans. I don't believe it's 6% though - more like 3-4% for a 50/50 chance. Clinton had a 2% advantage in votes in 2016 and lost by a sliver in several key states.

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    On the plus side, anyone wanting to (at very high risk) double their money (2.0), can simply back Joe.
    This might be attractive to circa 80% of posters, who for months have sang the virtues of Joe to win the POTUS.
    What's not to like for such followers?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,589 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Nobody is quite sure. 538's Nate Silver was pondering this very question last night, pointing out that Biden has an 8 point lead in Wisconsin (one of the swingiest swing states that's also the focus of street violence at the moment).

    I saw someone in the comments underneath that post speculate that perhaps a lot of people who despise Trump are making bets on him as some sort of a hedging exercise.

    I think there's a fair bit of recency bias at play as well. People thinking: Trump came from behind to win in 2016, therefore that's what will happen again.


    Here's the thread:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301288272514240514

    The betting prices for me are complete bull****.

    I think Trump clearly has a a chance and the EC system helps him immensely, and I admit the polls will miss silent Trump voters, but right now looking at the swing states the market can't have them pick.

    I'm not exactly loaded , but laying Trump at his current BF price makes sense.

    I know I risk somebody bumping this post in 3 months if he wins to gloat, and to reiterate yes Trump can win, but the odds are way to generous on Biden when you look at how strong his lead is in swing states.

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1301278837758623749


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    The betting prices for me are complete bull****.

    I think Trump clearly has a a chance and the EC system helps him immensely, and I admit the polls will miss silent Trump voters, but right now looking at the swing states the market can't have them pick.

    I'm not exactly loaded , but laying Trump at his current BF price makes sense.

    I know I risk somebody bumping this post in 3 months if he wins to gloat, and to reiterate yes Trump can win, but the odds are way to generous on Biden when you look at how strong his lead is in swing states.

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1301278837758623749

    Just so you're not alone in sticking your neck out, I unloaded a significant amount of my bankroll on Biden @ 2.00 on Betfair the other day (I considered laying Trump as an insurance policy on something happening to Biden - but with 8 weeks left I decided to that gamble to get a slightly better price at the time).

    I'm holding some back to see how the debates go. Having watched them both speak at length recently though, I don't think Biden has too much to fear. There's plenty of snippets going round of him having brain farts but when you compare half an hour of him speaking with half an hour of Trump speaking he comes out looking just fine.


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