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2020 US Election

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Live markets for the debates (September 29, October 15, and October 22) should be interesting, any amount of things that can go wrong for either, but more so the older chap. That may mean the 2 horse, 2.0 benchmark is exceeded. Would not be surprised to see 3.4/+ as a temporary blip even on low liquidity.


  • Registered Users Posts: 795 ✭✭✭ todolist


    Has he though? He won the presidency 4 years ago - so he's 1/1 in presidential elections. I wouldn't be throwing out sweeping statements like "always" on a sample size of 1 though.

    All of the elections since then have been disappointing for the Republicans. They got obliterated in the House in 2018, mostly driven by voters coming out to vote against the party of Trump. Had it not been for the fact that it was a favourable lineup of states in the Senate they would have lost that too.



    That's quite the claim. Any polling agency in particular you think are actively working against Trump? Any evidence even?
    No evidence but the morning of the election in 2016 a lot of the polls had Clinton 12% ahead.She was never that.They wanted to demoralize Trump's supporters and keep them home.That tactic wont work this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Biden down to 1.87 now on Betfair


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Biden down to 1.87 now on Betfair

    Unless you are wary about something health wise than that is absurdly generous.

    Not seen any positive polling whatsoever for Trump in the swing states.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,223 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Unless you are wary about something health wise than that is absurdly generous.

    Not seen any positive polling whatsoever for Trump in the swing states.

    He is close in a few swing states but yet to register a polling lead in any of them. One such state important for him to win is Pennsylvania but he is around 7-8% down to Biden there. He went to Pennsylvania the other night and did a town hall meeting with undecided voters in an attempt to claw back the lead Biden has, which is well outside the margin of error.

    It turned into an absolute car crash of a show, he just wasnt able for people asking awkward questions about his last four years in office. He didnt have the answers and waffled and blagged his way through them and got tetchy at times. Unlike four years ago Trump now has a record that he has to defend but so far he has fallen very flat in trying to do so, its not a good signal for the debates coming up in two weeks.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    He is close in a few swing states but yet to register a polling lead in any of them. One such state important for him to win is Pennsylvania but he is around 7-8% down to Biden there. He went to Pennsylvania the other night and did a town hall meeting with undecided voters in an attempt to claw back the lead Biden has, which is well outside the margin of error.

    It turned into an absolute car crash of a show, he just wasnt able for people asking awkward questions about his last four years in office. He didnt have the answers and waffled and blagged his way through them and got tetchy at times. Unlike four years ago Trump now has a record that he has to defend but so far he has fallen very flat in trying to do so, its not a good signal for the debates coming up in two weeks.

    Even giving him the benefit in that debate which he doesn't deserve,,that was a brute of state to beat Biden in. I honestly don't think any other Republican would do that much better than Trump is at the moment regarding Penny.

    Economist have Biden at 86% while 538 have him at 78%,,,,while plenty can happen and Trump may pull it off,,,,2.2 is a rancid price especially as market probably won't be settled until December.:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    If anyone can point me to any bookies etc doing bets on the Dems to win the senate, house and presidency please point them out. I seen a few a while ago, but were comically short.

    Senate race getting ugly for the GOP, while I think its not a big call to say Pelosi holds the house. Heck I think even most Trumpers would admit that regaining the house will be the hardest of the three to be in charge of when its all done.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭ IAMAMORON


    It is so gonna happen, 4 more years .


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,223 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Even giving him the benefit in that debate which he doesn't deserve,,that was a brute of state to beat Biden in. I honestly don't think any other Republican would do that much better than Trump is at the moment regarding Penny.

    Economist have Biden at 86% while 538 have him at 78%,,,,while plenty can happen and Trump may pull it off,,,,2.2 is a rancid price especially as market probably won't be settled until December.:P

    yeah plus Pennysylvania is Bidens home state which would give him a bit of an advantage in the polls even though he actually lives in Delaware. But Trump does need Pennsylvania to give him a better chance of winning which I presume is why he did that town hall meeting there the other night knowing the states voters would be watching it on tv. I doubt it did anything to push the needle in his direction in Penn state, many of his answers were incoherent rambling. Its like he needs media training to answer awkward questions but he feels he doesnt need it and can just take them on the fly and come out with his superlatives 'we did a great job', 'everything is going to be great' and so on. That doesnt cut the mustard and he needs to up his game for the debates.

    Still a long way to go and likely a couple of October surprises. But I wouldnt be backing Trump right now, there is too much running against him and he appears to be flailing around looking to land a punch on Biden but its not working.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    If anyone can point me to any bookies etc doing bets on the Dems to win the senate, house and presidency please point them out. I seen a few a while ago, but were comically short.
    Looking at a market for it now, but is ugly: 2.1.
    And would not touch with a bargepole. Look to the Sky and you will find it (ReqABetSpcl), the price is indeed un-special.

    4 more years. This might also be the title of KWests new album to celebrate his buddies win. KW to win is however a special price 150, but that chap is 'a bit too special' to acheive this, but still could take a 1 or 2% off the Dems.

    Still hopeful of a Biden drop-out, even right up to early Nov. which raised the question of what will happen then, KH to auto-replace?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    2.1? Even though I think its a runner is crap price.

    On the drop out ticket, yeah Biden is older but definitely in better shape than Trump and its easier for Biden to steer clear of crowds etc than it is for Trump.

    I don't think either drop out, but don't believe its a cert that if one were to drop out it would be Biden.


  • Registered Users Posts: 64 ✭✭ Cirrus Incus


    I can't see Trump winning this. He looks absolutely desperate at this point. 'Sleepy Joe' is just a poor insult compared to 'Crooked Hilary.' Trump just doesn't have enough dirt on Biden. People are used to Biden's gaffes, he's been having them for decades, nothing new there. This is a guy who said he loves when children jump on his lap, yet he's still comfortably outpolling Trump.



  • Registered Users Posts: 795 ✭✭✭ todolist


    I listen to Steve Bannon's daily podcasts. He's saying that he is more sure of Trump winning in November than he was in 2016.Bannon is saying the only way Trump can lose is if the Democrats steal the election. Trump is a phenomenon. He is more than likely going to win despite an overwhelmingly hostile media.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,286 ✭✭✭ franglan


    todolist wrote: »
    I listen to Steve Bannon's daily podcasts. He's saying that he is more sure of Trump winning in November than he was in 2016.Bannon is saying the only way Trump can lose is if the Democrats steal the election. Trump is a phenomenon. He is more than likely going to win despite an overwhelmingly hostile media.

    I wouldn't necessarily agree with anything Steve Bannon says...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Joe looked tired and poorly the other day reading out a single sentance (from paper held notes) in regards to the RBG passing.
    Reckon Dems are debating internally if/when to pull Joe, and push KH to the front, perhaps with sympathy voting, along with a BLM themed reignition.
    Prices for KH should really be drifting, but are holding steady on BFE @120(c), lowly 50 elsewhere on the traditional B&M shops.


  • Registered Users Posts: 36 ShaneODub


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    The betting prices for me are complete bull****.

    ...

    I know I risk somebody bumping this post in 3 months if he wins to gloat, and to reiterate yes Trump can win, but the odds are way to generous on Biden when you look at how strong his lead is in swing states.

    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1301278837758623749

    I agree, Biden's price seems quite good value.

    fivethirtyeight.com has him winning 77 times out of 100, and yet 4/5 and 5/6 are being widely offered.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,286 ✭✭✭ franglan


    Democrat winner and Joe Biden winner were same odds when I looked at weekend. Democrat winner cover previous two posts above.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    franglan wrote: »
    Democrat winner and Joe Biden winner were same odds when I looked at weekend. Democrat winner cover previous two posts above.
    Issue is Joe won't win by himself, KH has a better chance than him, just a question of when she takes his place, might be days, weeks, or months.
    Thus you wouldn't mind a small dab (at ideally 200/1+) on KH, as a value wildcard bet. If Joe stumbles through any live, lenghty debate and mistakes the health card could be pulled on him the next day.

    One factor however is these debates may well take place virtually (fed with paper notes and autocue scripts via Hilary or someone else).


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    todolist wrote: »
    I listen to Steve Bannon's daily podcasts. He's saying that he is more sure of Trump winning in November than he was in 2016.Bannon is saying the only way Trump can lose is if the Democrats steal the election. Trump is a phenomenon. He is more than likely going to win despite an overwhelmingly hostile media.

    I don't like Bannon but he is entitled to his opinion on the election as much as any Biden media supporter.

    Out of curiosity did Bannon address how Trump is polling so poorly in the crucial battle ground states but is according to him going to win?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭ Augme


    Issue is Joe won't win by himself, KH has a better chance than him, just a question of when she takes his place, might be days, weeks, or months.
    Thus you wouldn't mind a small dab (at ideally 200/1+) on KH, as a value wildcard bet. If Joe stumbles through any live, lenghty debate and mistakes the health card could be pulled on him the next day.

    One factor however is these debates may well take place virtually (fed with paper notes and autocue scripts via Hilary or someone else).


    If it's only a question of when she takes his place then surely it should be a lot more than just a dab. :confused:


    :pac:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Augme wrote: »
    If it's only a question of when she takes his place then surely it should be a lot more than just a dab.
    Again just a matter of time, now it could be weeks, months, possibly a bit longer, but there is no way Joe can roll out 4yrs as leader of the free world (82yrs Nov 2024), at very best might have 2yrs left of gas in the tank.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Biden dipping below 1.80 on BetFair for the first time in over 2 months. Possibly off the back of a poll out this morning showing him 9 points up in Pennsylvania.

    It'll be interesting to see the price tomorrow morning after the first debate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Live markets for debates will be very interesting!

    I'm assuming of course they for a few hours duration, involve standing up, are fully live (not remote, or vr), do not have teleprompts or earpeices, and some sort of smattering of a small audience.

    The price on Donald really hasn't budged much [email protected]
    The (non shock that a billionaire pays little tax (like every other billionaire) ain't no great surprise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,499 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Honest question.
    Where is the money in the Betfair market coming from ?

    Is it primarily this side of the atlantic i.e. Europe, or the American side, or is it just bots ?

    If it's primarily from this side then the prices may be off because this side of the world is skewed against Trump so there may be a bias in that price.

    Now I'm not saying €111 million in matched bets is wrong, I'm just wondering is there some value in Trump at 2.48 there ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Biden down to 1.67 this morning.

    Looks like the view is that by making the debate a ****show Trump won't have won over any of the swing state, swing voters that he desperately needs to win over if he wants to have a shot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,042 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Honest question.
    Where is the money in the Betfair market coming from ?

    Is it primarily this side of the atlantic i.e. Europe, or the American side,...

    I'm willing to be corrected on this but it's almost certainly not the US market. Gambling sites are licensed based on geographical locations (for example you can't access the Paddy Power site in France)

    I think it's possible that Betfair is just Britain & Ireland.
    or is it just bots ?

    bots are linked to actual accounts, so even automated accounts will be associated with people who live in the same regions

    If it's primarily from this side then the prices may be off because this side of the world is skewed against Trump so there may be a bias in that price.

    If anything the prices, until the last few days, have been bullish on Trump given the polling information so far in the race.

    As of the time of writing this, Trump is heading for 2.6 on Betfair and I still think that represents poor value for money given the polls and that his campaign are pulling ads in states for the past few weeks due to lack of resources. Looking at the electoral map it's very difficult to find a path to 270 electoral points for Trump right now. I'd be willing to put money on him if he was > 5.0.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Very surprised on the drift on DT, to be fair he got off to a fairly ropey/shouty start.
    Still, the 2.5 now presents a decent enough acca builder or multiplier line selection.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,223 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Biden down to 1.67 this morning.

    Looks like the view is that by making the debate a ****show Trump won't have won over any of the swing state, swing voters that he desperately needs to win over if he wants to have a shot.

    Thats Trumps main problem now, he is behind in the polls and in many states it is outside the margin of error. Which means he needs to convince intending Biden voters to vote for him instead. Last nights shouty debate didnt do anything to achieve that. If we have another two debates similar to that Trump wont be shifting the needle, its more likely to turn undecided voters off him and he already needs all of those that he can get.

    The betting markets today are just reacting to what they saw last night which was proof that Biden isnt this sleepy character that he has been portrayed as being for the last six months. Once it was seen that Biden was able to hold his own the markets solidified and his odds have shortened.

    Also Trumps polling numbers seem to be getting worse, not better. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by 0.72% but now in 2020 he is 9% behind there and his campaign have virtually given up on it. Its looking like Pennsylvania will give Biden a solid win, thus cutting off yet another route to victory for Trump.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    The betting markets today are just reacting to what they saw last night which was proof that Biden isnt this sleepy character that he has been portrayed as being for the last six months. .
    Ah now, if it hadn't been for the podium, even a short 90mins of unassisted standing (not to mention walking around) would have weared out Joe rather quick. He still stumbled and slurred out rather a few words, eyes looked tired, and his vocal projection is still worringly weak (one clear sign of health issues).

    The only person that helped Joe last night, was a slightly pre-agitated and over energetic DT, he would have prefered a live audience and the chance to walk around and work the room.

    Prices will settle down again in the comin days and weeks, 2.5 could be the best price for DT for a while.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 795 ✭✭✭ todolist


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    I don't like Bannon but he is entitled to his opinion on the election as much as any Biden media supporter.

    Out of curiosity did Bannon address how Trump is polling so poorly in the crucial battle ground states but is according to him going to win?

    Bannon doesn't believe the opinion polls. He's talking about the silent majority who will come out and gjve Trump a second term. His podcast is well worth listening to.Bannon is a superb strategist.


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