2020 US Election

Muahahaha wrote: »

Trumps Russia/China conspiracy theories arent sticking and nobody could care less about the laptop story, its a bottle of smoke and Trump has told so many lies at this stage that people just dont believe him anymore.

This is the big issue that Trump doesn't seem to grasp. Not only do people automatically ignore any accusations he flings out but at this stage people also ignore anyone in his administration (Bill Barr, Pompeo, McEnany) or any media organisations who report in his favour (Fox News, OAN, The Federalist, Breitbart, The New York Post etc).

If he wants anything to stick to Biden it needs to come from a truly independent, trusted source. It's difficult to imagine now, but this time 4 years ago James Comey was all of that.

Frankly, at this stage, even if the FBI came out with a similar story about Biden now, I suspect that people would still vote for him as they're just sick of Trump and his nonsense.

I still think trump will win, but looks like he's going to drift further as no boost from debates and probably no suprises with the run in.

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Out of curiosity which of the swing states do you think he's going to win to get over the 270 electoral college votes?

You can play around with the map on this site if you don't know off the top of your head: https://www.270towin.com/

AZ,MI,WI,PA,NC 305/6-232 Trump wins.

Already give my reasons so not going drivel on but trumps ground game, inaccurate polls due to virus, voter registrations, people voting with there pockets- polls showing satisfaction with economy. Where biden needs to win votes climate change and reducing oil output will not help him.

greenfield21 wrote: »

AZ,MI,WI,PA,NC 305/6-232 Trump wins.

Already give my reasons so not going drivel on but trumps ground game, inaccurate polls due to virus, voter registrations, people voting with there pockets- polls showing satisfaction with economy. Where biden needs to win votes climate change and reducing oil output will not help him.

Fair enough. I don't think Trump will win any of those states personally (with the possible exception of NC) but we'll agree to disagree.

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Does anyone know of any bookies giving odds on the swing states and furthermore does anyone have any idea which they are?

Haven't been following it much yet but Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Texas are all close looking at polls.
Trump in NH today. Who knows.

The ones showing Texas close are complete rubbish. It's only going to ramp up the clean sweep blue wave nonsense so Trump is probably going to well over 3 now. Also lots of early data coming in and looking good for Dems, haven't checked it but turnout in some areas could benefit them. Depends on how you read it so probably benefits both camps.

It would be a stunning upset were Biden to take Texas, even though a couple of polls showed him slightly in the lead there its hard to actually see it happening on the day. If it did happen then Trump is absolute toast regardless of what happens in Florida.

In any case it seems now Putin has turned against him, he came out yesterday and said that Bidens son did nothing wrong in Ukraine or Russia. Its a clear signal that Putin has given up on Trump winning this election. No.10 Downing Street are likewise, the foreign office there are scrambling to meet with Biden but he is rebuffing them, their plans for a post Brexit trade deal with Trump are in complete disarray

The price on Biden seems to have hit a point of resistance around the 1.5 mark. it doesn't tend to get too far above or below that. Hasn't reached either 1.45 or 1.55 in recent days.

Only just realised that there is a set of Rules for the Betfair market:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

Looks like it'll be settled pretty soon so, one way or the other

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah Trump's price has been hovering just below 2/1 for several days now. Not sure how these things work, but I wonder did the bookies set that as the limit, irrespective of polling and other evidence, to protect themselves in case of a repeat of 2016...

Yeah Id say thats exactly what is going on, they wont let Trumps odds go out further than 2/1. The Financial Times model is saying Biden has an 88% chance of victory so Trumps chances are far above 2/1 but the bookies arent going to offer realistic odds because of what happened in 2016. If you were brave enough to back Trump now you would want at least 4 or 5/1 but it wont be offered.

yeah would agree. I think even now a week out that Biden at 1/2 is good value, its a two horse race and he is in the lead in the final furlong and despite this people still have the opportunity to make a 50% profit on their stake. But no way is Trump good value at 2/1 right now when all things are weighed up, he is fighting desperately for his political life and its hard to see any turn around from what has gone before, even then its too late in the day now IMO.

Would imagine also that some bookies are limiting their exposure all the same by implementing maximum bets of 50 euro or 100. Id say the bookies themselves are afraid of lightning striking twice even though there hasnt been any great indication that it will.

Augme wrote: »

I can see a reverse of the situation that happened last time. Where biden absolutely romps home as expected by the polls but almost unexpected by the average Joe because they just didn't trust what the polls were saying.

Im thinking along the same lines myself, some of his leads in states are 8-10% but despite this a lot of people dont trust the polls and still think it is still a really close race. With Biden even competitive in a state like Texas we could be looking at a landslide here, especially if Florida falls to Biden where he has had a solid consistent lead for months now. On the state level if the polling is outside the margin of error of +/-3% and is consistently showing Biden far ahead then it is basically free money imo.

Augme wrote: »

Bookies odds are hugely influenced by the their liability. Bookies don't need to push out trump's odds to 4-1 because he is still getting backed at 2-1.

It still seems strange to me that Trump's odds have been 'frozen' round 15/8 for several days. If this was a normal market, surely he would have drifted even a small bit as opinion poll and other evidence that he is a gonner piles up.

The
@BetfairExchange
2020 US Election market has become the biggest betting event of all time, smashing the 2016 record of £199m. With 6 days to go, £200m has been wagered, which is more than the Super Bowl, Grand National, Mayweather vs McGregor and the 2018 WC final combined.

I have Biden backed myself at 1.66 am still surprised 1.5 is as low as he's gone given recent polls. Has to be down to skepticism from 2016 ? TX odds are the ones im still surprised at floating around 3.8-4 last 2 days with only one recent poll a positive for Trump giving him a 3+ point lead. IF polls are accurate texas looks very much like its a toss up

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

It still seems strange to me that Trump's odds have been 'frozen' round 15/8 for several days. If this was a normal market, surely he would have drifted even a small bit as opinion poll and other evidence that he is a gonner piles up.

Why offer someone odds of 3-1 when they will place the same bet at 15/8? It doesn't make any financial sense for bookies to do that.