2020 US Election

Brussels Sprout · 17-10-2020 11:01am

Biden up to 1.6 now. I don't know wtf is happening with the Betting Markets since the polls have not budged and Trump didn't cover himself in glory at his townhall interview on Thursday night.

Anyone who's waiting in the wings to get some money on Biden. This might be your opportunity. The final debate is next week. If that goes anything like the first then Biden's numbers on the betting markets will drop again right after.

4068ac1elhodqr · 17-10-2020 2:21pm

Well well well, seems 'Creepy' Joe is fast becoming 'Crooked' Joe:

[Deleted User] · 17-10-2020 2:34pm

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

Well well well, seems 'Creepy' Joe is fast becoming 'Crooked' Joe:

The stunt by the Trump campaign doesn't seem to be very effective tbh. Looks like it's getting the attention of a National Enquirer story and likely to get blowback on Trump and Co more than anything.

Cirrus Incus · 17-10-2020 5:39pm

Is it lower risk to bet on the winning party rather than candidate? There's similar odds on each.
Let's say you bet on the Democrats to be the winning party rather than betting on Biden himself.
If Biden was to die somehow before the election you could still win if his replacement won the election?

Also, when is the market settled? Is it on election night when the projection is made, when vote counting is complete or when the electoral college formally choose the next president on 14th December?

4068ac1elhodqr · 17-10-2020 7:24pm

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Is it lower risk to bet on the winning party rather than candidate? There's similar odds on each.
Let's say you bet on the Democrats to be the winning party rather than betting on Biden himself.
If Biden was to die somehow before the election you could still win if his replacement won the election?

Seems reasonable (party option), guess folks can't see past the two contenders as time nears.

DT is a new energised man after the China Flu, but if Joe should catch it, not sure it would be 2/3days, then out for some fistpumping. Hence KH@500 is fine as a small token wildcard option.
Bets on Joe would be auto-'void' if replaced (or deemed unfit to stand) anytime between now and Nov 3.

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Also, when is the market settled? Is it on election night when the projection is made, when vote counting is complete or when the electoral college formally choose the next president on 14th December?

Good question, aside from technical re-counts, cheatin' claims or counter claims. The only thing that matters is when you get paid out on the Donald.

A small shop bookie might be dishing out the monies the next morning after the hype, online may suspend the market for a week or two and drag the feet. The lucky pants people may even do a justice payout on either (only upto a certain amount).

Brussels Sprout · 17-10-2020 8:28pm

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Also, when is the market settled? Is it on election night when the projection is made, when vote counting is complete or when the electoral college formally choose the next president on 14th December?

Good question and one I have been wondering myself. On Betfair anyway I suspect the market will not be settled until the next president is sworn in on January 20th. I backed Biden to win the nomination and even though he had it mathematically sewn up months beforehand I didn't get paid until the convention when he formally received the nomination after the delegates votes were counted.

There is a smaller chance that you may get paid out on December 14th after the electoral college has their election. However if a candidate won that vote and then died before they were sworn into office then they would never have been president so I'd be surprised if that was it.

Muahahaha · 18-10-2020 12:36am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Good question and one I have been wondering myself. On Betfair anyway I suspect the market will not be settled until the next president is sworn in on January 20th. I backed Biden to win the nomination and even though he had it mathematically sewn up months beforehand I didn't get paid until the convention when he formally received the nomination after the delegates votes were counted.

There is a smaller chance that you may get paid out on December 14th after the electoral college has their election. However if a candidate won that vote and then died before they were sworn into office then they would never have been president so I'd be surprised if that was it.

I think it might depend on the platform, whether its an exchange or a bookie. Going by the last election on Paddy Power I got paid out on Trump pretty quick once Clinton conceded to him. They had also paid out my Hillary bet about 10 days before the election after Trumps grab em by the pussy remarks, it was pretty sweet getting paid out on both candidates.

Id say to the bookies wont wait until Dec 14 or inauguration in Jan 2021, they'll pay out once a result is certain, perhaps 2 or 3 days after Nov 3rd because of millions of mail in ballots.

The exchanges could be different though, Im not sure but I would expect that a bet on the "Next President" against layers would mean the winning candidate actually has to get inaugurated as President in January for the bet to pay out. Would be interested to see what Betfair have in the rule book about it because ultimately the bet is actually for who will be the next President, not for who becomes the next President-elect.

Brussels Sprout · 18-10-2020 1:09pm

Biden up to 1.65 at the same time as the 538 Model has him now up to an 88% chance of winning.

I dunno wtf is going on in the betting markets.

Brussels Sprout · 18-10-2020 1:56pm

https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1317809258872930304

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-10-2020 2:45pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden up to 1.65 at the same time as the 538 Model has him now up to an 88% chance of winning.

I dunno wtf is going on in the betting markets.

Various possibilities:

i) Practical wisdom of crowds effect has started, vs 'polls or models'.

ii) Fact that Joe is quickly becoming Crooked Joe (UKR), rather than just Sleepy Joe, combined with a surprisingly poor performance from KH (somewhat shifty and unconfident).

iii) Could also be the sharing the airplane with one of the China Flu infected. KH still at >350 BFE, snapped a little bit of 500/1 for the lols.

On the plus isde for Joe has plenty of celeb endorsement, and most of the Shamrock and Sombrero votes. However, am still holding the forecast he won't even stand on Nov 3rd, or retire shortly afterwards to KH.

[Deleted User] · 18-10-2020 2:52pm

Sienna Deep Rite wrote: »

Various possibilities:

i) Practical wisdom of crowds effect has started, vs 'polls or models'.

ii) Fact that Joe is quickly becoming Crooked Joe (UKR), rather than just Sleepy Joe, combined with a surprisingly poor performance from KH (somewhat shifty and unconfident).

iii) Could also be the sharing the airplane with one of the China Flu infected. KH still at >350 BFE, snapped a little bit of 500/1 for the lols.

On the plus isde for Joe has plenty of celeb endorsement, and most of the Shamrock and Sombrero votes. However, am still holding the forecast he won't even stand on Nov 3rd, or retire shortly afterwards to KH.

The idea that Biden won't stand on the day is ridiculous at this stage. On top of that, you've previously pushed the claim that he wouldn't show for the debates. Which in the end was what Trump did. These predictions simply aren't realistic.

Augme · 18-10-2020 3:05pm

In all my time reading forums, especially gambling ones, I've not seen such bizarre and off the wall analysis than what Accumalotor has consistently delivered thoroughout this thread. It's been fantastic entertainment.

It's so off the wall that I'm not even sure the biggest trump fantastic would believe it so now I'm wondering if this is just some strange attempt to influence the market as he's consistently been laying trump along.

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-10-2020 3:15pm

Augme wrote: »

In all my time reading forums, especially gambling ones, I've not seen such bizarre and off the wall analysis than what Accumalotor has consistently delivered thoroughout this thread. It's been fantastic entertainment.

It's so off the wall that I'm not even sure the biggest trump fantastic would believe it so now I'm wondering if this is just some strange attempt to influence the market as he's consistently been laying trump along.

Very kind of you. As always do use your own logic/head and not your emotions/pollsters when picking the likely winner (again as per 2016), but wait for peak (live) prices, unless stacking onto the end of acca.

Muahahaha · 18-10-2020 5:52pm

Augme wrote: »

In all my time reading forums, especially gambling ones, I've not seen such bizarre and off the wall analysis than what Accumalotor has consistently delivered thoroughout this thread. It's been fantastic entertainment.

It's so off the wall that I'm not even sure the biggest trump fantastic would believe it so now I'm wondering if this is just some strange attempt to influence the market as he's consistently been laying trump along.

His predictions have definitely been good entertainment, I get a daily laugh out of them. I must go back up the thread because every prediction he makes seems to turn out to be wrong. From memory we were told for weeks that Trump was going to smash Biden in the debates, then that didnt happen at all and Biden extended his lead in the polls after them. We were also told that Biden wouldnt even show up for the debates and then it was Trump who chickened out. Then theres the constant name calling of 'Sleepy Joe', you only ever hear this moniker from Trump supporters who have bought into the Trump cult.

In any case even Trump himself is now doubting he can win, he held a rally last night in Wiscounsin which is now breaking records for new cases of the coronavirus. During it he said

In Michigan, he quipped that, in January, he “better damn well be president”. In Wisconsin, he wondered how he would process a loss.
“Can you imagine if I lose? I will have lost to the worst candidate in the history of American politics,” he said. “What do I do?”

Thats his lack of filter realising that his chances of winning are getting less and less. And now he seems to be going full deranged, he claimed Biden would turn Michigan into a refugee camp and that he is a radical socialist. At a time when he needs to be winning Biden voters over he is doing exactly the opposite to that.

Bobeagleburger · 18-10-2020 9:04pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The idea that Biden won't stand on the day is ridiculous at this stage. On top of that, you've previously pushed the claim that he wouldn't show for the debates. Which in the end was what Trump did. These predictions simply aren't realistic.

Pie in the sky stuff tbh. Nobody is believing it.. Easy to see what's going on.

Trump is dead in the polls.

Bobeagleburger · 18-10-2020 9:06pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

His predictions have definitely been good entertainment, I get a daily laugh out of them. I must go back up the thread because every prediction he makes seems to turn out to be wrong. From memory we were told for weeks that Trump was going to smash Biden in the debates, then that didnt happen at all and Biden extended his lead in the polls after them. We were also told that Biden wouldnt even show up for the debates and then it was Trump who chickened out. Then theres the constant name calling of 'Sleepy Joe', you only ever hear this moniker from Trump supporters who have bought into the Trump cult.

In any case even Trump himself is now doubting he can win, he held a rally last night in Wiscounsin which is now breaking records for new cases of the coronavirus. During it he said

Thats his lack of filter realising that his chances of winning are getting less and less. And now he seems to be going full deranged, he claimed Biden would turn Michigan into a refugee camp and that he is a radical socialist. At a time when he needs to be winning Biden voters over he is doing exactly the opposite to that.

Don't forget the 'China virus' bantz..

Brussels Sprout · 19-10-2020 9:54am

Biden up to 1.68 this morning. Final debate is Thursday. Let's see if he keeps ticking upwards until at least then.

redarmyblues · 19-10-2020 1:29pm

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

Also, when is the market settled? Is it on election night when the projection is made, when vote counting is complete or when the electoral college formally choose the next president on 14th December?

The market will be settled according to the market rules of betting portal of choice, if in doubt read the rules, if you dont fully understand the rules or you find some ambiguity in them don't bet.

redarmyblues · 19-10-2020 1:38pm

Augme wrote: »

In all my time reading forums, especially gambling ones, I've not seen such bizarre and off the wall analysis than what Accumalotor has consistently delivered thoroughout this thread. It's been fantastic entertainment.

It's so off the wall that I'm not even sure the biggest trump fantastic would believe it so now I'm wondering if this is just some strange attempt to influence the market as he's consistently been laying trump along.

Nothing attracts doorknob lickers like betting threads that involve Donald Trump every one I am on is plagued with them. There is that guy on the BF politics forum, who denied the very existence of CV-19 and went so far as to protest at his local hospital, shouting at the nurses and doctors and what have you. In the heel of the hunt he spent so much time there he got the virus. He is all right now, though obviously not in the head.

Edit. The price is swinging back the other way now out from 2.44 to 2.64.

Brussels Sprout · 19-10-2020 5:19pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden up to 1.68 this morning. Final debate is Thursday. Let's see if he keeps ticking upwards until at least then.

...aaaaand back down to 1.62 now. Swingy!

redarmyblues · 19-10-2020 5:24pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

...aaaaand back down to 1.62 now. Swingy!

When the price of Trump started to contract I laid him at each iteration 2.78, 2.6 and 2.44 unless Biden gets the virus I would expect to trade out of all of that by the end of the week, there has been no good news for him anywhere.

Muahahaha · 20-10-2020 6:11pm

PP have added a good few new bets like electoral college seats and the margin of the popular vote. The one that stood out to me though was the state with the smallest percentage winning margin. Ohio and Georgia are good contenders for this so I put a few quid on at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Other contenders would be Florida, Iowa and North Carolina but none are polling as tightly as Ohio and Georgia right now. Ohio has always been a very tight state so hoping it remains true to form for this election

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/georgia/

Also have money on Biden winning in Michigan and Wisconsin from a couple of months ago, was going to double down on it but the odds for Michigan have now shifted to 1/3 and they've pulled Wisconsin from the book altogether. iirc Trump has given up spending resources in Michigan so even they see it as gone to Biden

Rjd2 · 20-10-2020 11:41pm

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/presidential-state-winner/wisconsin

wisconsin their with plenty of bookies, sadly few lay doubles on it and if they give you a double price its normally a piss take.

Brussels Sprout · 21-10-2020 12:03pm

Muahahaha wrote: »

The one that stood out to me though was the state with the smallest percentage winning margin. Ohio and Georgia are good contenders for this so I put a few quid on at 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Other contenders would be Florida, Iowa and North Carolina but none are polling as tightly as Ohio and Georgia right now. Ohio has always been a very tight state so hoping it remains true to form for this election

The latest 538 podcast discussed this very topic. Apart from the states above they also mentioned Texas and Maine's 2nd district (not sure if the latter would count since it's not a state but it's the 3rd closest according to their forecast after OH & GA).

Muahahaha · 21-10-2020 4:51pm

yeah there are a few polls saying Trump is only 2-3% ahead in Texas but on the day I cant see Biden winning it or it even being that close. Texas will be won by the Dems some day but Im not seeing it this time out. Ohio and Georgia are the really tight races and worth a small punt on the smallest winning margin imo, both states are extremely tight right now.

Other interesting options on PP are forecasting the electoral college seats. A few options there for Biden are 8/1 for 270-299 votes, 6/1 for 300-329, the favourite 4/1 for 330-359 and 6/1 for 360-389. I've now covered 300 up to 359 with two bets after studying the Financial Times forecaster for a while. I think Texas stays with Trump so their 38 EC votes are not available to Biden.

But of the toss up states remaining. If Biden can win Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Arizona (11) then that puts him firmly into the 300-329 space which is 6/1. If he goes beyond that by winning Georgia (16) and North Carolina (15) then he is into 330-359 (4/1) territory. However he can win those and still lose Florida which would put him back down to the 300-329 bracket.

The FT model has Biden down for a solid 207 EC votes and then another 71 leaning towards him. So provided that bears out and he does well in the remaining toss up states somewhere between 300-359 EC votes looks achievable and like it is the sweet spot of the available options. So I took the 4/1 and the 6/1 with the hope the 6/1 pays out.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

Brussels Sprout · 22-10-2020 12:35pm

Biden down to 1.52 now. Looks like the Betting Markets are seeing the light once more.

Will be interesting to see how they are in 24 hours time. If it's another Dumpster fire of a debate that could hit 1.4 I reckon.

4068ac1elhodqr · 22-10-2020 3:25pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden down to 1.52 now. Looks like the Betting Markets are seeing the light once more.
Will be interesting to see how they are in 24 hours time. If it's another Dumpster fire of a debate that could hit 1.4 I reckon.

Swings and roundabouts, sure 1.44, then 1.67 next week, then revert, and so on it goes.

One interesting market is 2am GMT debate keyword bingo:
To Say(3): Fake News, Rigged Election, Unfit for Office @ 4.50 (combination {either to say} market).

BFE pipped 600 for KH just days ago, this market appears to be not just for Nov 3rd election day, but for POTUS inauguration day (Jan 20th or so), so plenty of extra time for Crooked Joe to Covid-Croak, and for intended the stand-in replacement to replace, if they can beat the Dealmaker that is.

Brussels Sprout · 23-10-2020 9:37am

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Biden down to 1.52 now. Looks like the Betting Markets are seeing the light once more.

Will be interesting to see how they are in 24 hours time. If it's another Dumpster fire of a debate that could hit 1.4 I reckon.

1.51 - no real change

[Deleted User] · 23-10-2020 9:50am

The debate won't help him any bit. Basically Trump trying to push conspiracy theories and none of them stuck.

Muahahaha · 23-10-2020 12:43pm

yeah Trump badly needed a knockout blow last night and he didnt get it, Biden was well able to handle him. Trumps Russia/China conspiracy theories arent sticking and nobody could care less about the laptop story, its a bottle of smoke and Trump has told so many lies at this stage that people just dont believe him anymore. Would expect more allegations that Biden has got millions off the Russians/Chinese/whoever but as he pointed out strongly last night its Biden who has released 24 years of tax returns while Trump refuses to do likewise.

Biden just needs to keep doing what hes been doing all along for the next 10 days and he is in a very strong position to be the next President.

2020 US Election

Comments