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2020 US Election

1356717

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 64 ✭✭ Cirrus Incus


    Seems like I missed the boat for betting on Biden at evens.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Biden down to 1.62 now (Trump available at 2.66).

    That's a big movement since the debate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,006 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Trump is tanking


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    6 wrote: »
    Trump is tanking

    The post debate landscape isnt looking good for him
    President Trump’s quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night’s debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996.1


    If we look at potential tipping-point states, the race is a bit closer, but not that much closer. After a couple of strong polls for Joe Biden earlier this week in Pennsylvania — the state that’s currently most likely to decide the election — Trump now trails there by 5 to 6 points. He’s down by about 7 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, meanwhile. Those states, along with Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire — where Biden has also polled strongly lately — suggest that Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago. Indeed, Biden is as close to winning South Carolina or Alaska as Trump is to winning Michigan and Wisconsin, based on recent polls of those states.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/

    Thats from 538. Right now they are giving Trump a 21% chance of winning the election. They say if the election were held today then he only has a 9% chance. He needs to do something quick to claw back his losses to Biden but is fast running out of time, the election is just over 4 weeks away now and millions of Americans have already voted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭ Coybig_


    Dont think the polls are the best indicator in this case, many Trump supporters won't/don't admit to voting for him. Not a reliable indicator.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Coybig_ wrote: »
    Dont think the polls are the best indicator in this case, many Trump supporters won't/don't admit to voting for him. Not a reliable indicator.

    I've heard this a fair bit in response to his poor polling numbers but I don't believe there's any evidence of this beyond hearsay and anecdotes.

    The main issue in 2016 appears to be that the pollsters under-estimated the amount of white, working-class voters when weighting their polls, especially in the Mid-West. People were actually telling them they were voting for Trump - they just under-counted them when they were putting it all together.
    Many pollsters were puzzled by the failure of mainstream forecasting models to predict the outcome of the 2016 election. Some journalists compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election. Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics, wrote that many of the polls were accurate, but that the pundits' interpretation of these polls neglected polling error. Nate Silver found that the high number of undecided and third-party voters in the election was neglected in many of these models, and that many of these voters decided to vote for Trump.[According to a February 2018 study by Public Opinion Quarterly, the main sources of polling error were "a late swing in vote preference toward Trump and a pervasive failure to adjust for over-representation of college graduates (who favored Clinton)," whereas the share of "shy" Trump voters (who declined to admit their support for Trump to the pollsters) proved to be negligible.

    They have adapted their methods (by weighting for education level, I believe) to ensure that they don't make that particular mistake again.

    link


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    1.57 Biden, slowly but surely Betfair is copping itself on.

    Still to big Biden though.:p


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭ bobbyy gee


    Russia will fix the election for trump

    as he owes them 420 million


  • Posts: 0 Raylan Icy Rumba


    I've heard this a fair bit in response to his poor polling numbers but I don't believe there's any evidence of this beyond hearsay and anecdotes.

    The main issue in 2016 appears to be that the pollsters under-estimated the amount of white, working-class voters when weighting their polls, especially in the Mid-West. People were actually telling them they were voting for Trump - they just under-counted them when they were putting it all together.



    They have adapted their methods (by weighting for education level, I believe) to ensure that they don't make that particular mistake again.

    link

    Another major point that I've only seen covered in the last few weeks is that there are far more undecided voters this time around. Instead of a 4 point lead meaning 43-39 it means 47-43 this time around. Also in a lot of states Biden is hitting 48+% whereas last time Clinton was 45 or below.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 285 ✭✭ TexasTornado


    Coybig_ wrote: »
    Dont think the polls are the best indicator in this case, many Trump supporters won't/don't admit to voting for him. Not a reliable indicator.

    People still don't get this. There is also many active campaigns from Trump supporter groupings in the US to respond as Biden voters for pollsters. Then there are the many many silent Trump voters who just won't admit to the pollster on the phone or street that they will vote Trump.

    I'd go as far as to say the polls in this election will be even less reliable than in 2016.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,110 ✭✭✭ Augme


    There will also be many people people who were undecided last time and went with trump on a bit of whim and will have massively regretted that too.

    I do also wonder how much stock to take in people being afraid to say they are voting for trump. I mean these are americans we are talking about they aren't known for being the reserved and shy type. I think ultimately it is difficult to see Biden losing. He is a much more appealing candidate to the middle ground than Hilary and I think that will be the deciding factor.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,520 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    1.57 Biden, slowly but surely Betfair is copping itself on.

    Still to big Biden though.:p

    I personally think the Betfair market is skewed towards Biden because of who is making up the market.

    The money, all €113.8 million of it, is coming from this part of the world.
    And this part of the world has an undeniable bias towards Biden, or more so against Trump.

    Thus the prices are potentially off.

    Anyone got proper US odds, from a US bookmaker ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    Anyone got proper US odds, from a US bookmaker ?
    Generally there is very little in the way of 'regulated' politics betting available there for various reasons. Nevada rejected it back in 2013, and don't think it's changed ever since.

    Would have to try the off-shore (unregulated route), Costa Rica etc, and hope a speedboat delivers bills into MIA if ever hit the jackpot.

    Of course the blackmarket gaming industry there is worth a few $bn pa, hence it's now very slowly starting to de-regulate and open up (taxable income for the less red-tape Trump gov).

    WillylHill is about to get taken over by Caesers Palance Ents, Vegas, $2.9bn. Cheap.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,520 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    The market is now suspended on Betfair as our friend Mr Trump has COVID.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Oddschecker showing all the major bookies have suspended betting. You cant even get money on Pence to be next President, not that he would beat Biden anyway.

    Trump is going to be in his bunker in the White House now for two weeks minimum and maybe longer if he gets very sick or tries injesting bleach. Its unlikely he will make the second debate which given it is a town hall style debate with questions from the audience is actually a positive for him.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    2.1? .

    I don't think either drop out, but don't believe its a cert that if one were to drop out it would be Biden.

    Hope some of you have some throwaway bets on Pence.

    Although pretty sure he'd be in contact with Hope Hicks also.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Oddschecker showing all the major bookies have suspended betting. You cant even get money on Pence to be next President, not that he would beat Biden anyway.

    Trump is going to be in his bunker in the White House now for two weeks minimum and maybe longer if he gets very sick or tries injesting bleach. Its unlikely he will make the second debate which given it is a town hall style debate with questions from the audience is actually a positive for him.

    smarkets are re opened.

    https://smarkets.com/event/886736/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/2020-election-winner


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Sienna Deep Rite


    He'll be back in <7days, ideally any temporary odds bump will result in increased ROI% opportunities.

    Could well be a chance old Joe will pick up the China Flu: recovery time 2mths.


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,006 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

    Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?


    I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    6 wrote: »
    Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

    Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?


    I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.

    Depends on who the bookie is. I wouldn't blame them if they said its a losing bet, but maybe for PR they void?

    If you bet Biden to be president then yeah its a winner, although some bookies may have some sort of rule they may void if election is void until 2021.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    6 wrote: »
    Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

    Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?


    I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.

    I would have though No and Yes, you are betting on who will be the next President so if a candidate dies or pulls out the bet is lost, no refunds.

    The next few days will be interesting but its not looking good for a Trump win right now, it all depends how badly the virus hits him. Hes 74 and obese so not in a good position to fight it off, that said he has a massive medical team around him.


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,006 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    I would have though No and Yes, you are betting on who will be the next President so if a candidate dies or pulls out the bet is lost, no refunds.

    The next few days will be interesting but its not looking good for a Trump win right now, it all depends how badly the virus hits him. Hes 74 and obese so not in a good position to fight it off, that said he has a massive medical team around him.


    Similar to ante post on horses then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,611 ✭✭✭✭ Rjd2


    6 wrote: »
    Similar to ante post on horses then?

    Pretty much.

    Maybe some bookies would refund for PR but unlikely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 44,006 ✭✭✭✭ Bobeagleburger


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Pretty much.

    Maybe some bookies would refund for PR but unlikely.

    Some people will be sweating so!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    6 wrote: »
    Is money refunded if Trump dies / doesn't run?

    Also, if Biden runs against someone else and wins, are winnings paid out?


    I'm assuming the answers are Yes, and No.

    The Betfair market is called "Next President" so you would not be refunded. If you picked Trump you'd lose the bet if he died before the election and was replaced on the ticket. If you picked Biden and he won you would get paid, regardless of who his opponent is. Mike Pence, Kamala Harris and a range of other people are in that market for these exact, edge-case scenarios.

    Edit: I see Muahahaha answered this already above


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Anyone know why the Betfair market is still frozen? I mean what are the technical reasons behind it? I know they do this in their sports markets when, for example a goal has been scored but that it only ever for a few seconds. Like are they waiting to hear if Trump is asymptomatic or something? Why not just leave the market open and let people speculate - it is a gambling site after all!


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Anyone know why the Betfair market is still frozen? I mean what are the technical reasons behind it? I know they do this in their sports markets when, for example a goal has been scored but that it only ever for a few seconds. Like are they waiting to hear if Trump is asymptomatic or something? Why not just leave the market open and let people speculate - it is a gambling site after all!

    Trump getting Covid is a major event so I presume they are scared of their exposure if the market is open. You'd have floods of money going on Biden even at short odds. Pences odds in Australia dropped from 100/1 to 12/1 in the space of an hour before they shut the market, presumably because their exposure to losses was too high for them to be comfortable with it.

    Any bet on Trump now too is really a double bet, you are betting that 1) he can beat the virus and 2) he can win the election. For his age group and the fact he is obese his statistical chances of death from it are around 12% and being severely incapacitated for several months it is higher than that. Right now you would want at least 15/1 for Trump to be the next President and the bookies are not going to risk those kind of odds in what is still effectively a two horse race. But around 15/1 is where he is at now given we dont yet know if he will pull out or not. If the virus hits him hard like it did to Boris then everything is up in the air, especially as 2 million Americans have already voted by mail with Trumps name on the ballot.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,045 ✭✭✭ Brussels Sprout


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Trump getting Covid is a major event so I presume they are scared of their exposure if the market is open. You'd have floods of money going on Biden even at short odds. Pences odds in Australia dropped from 100/1 to 12/1 in the space of an hour before they shut the market, presumably because their exposure to losses was too high for them to be comfortable with it.

    That logic would make sense for their traditional betting operation but not for the exchange. They are just market makers there with no exposure to the outcomes. Whoever wins they get their commission and make sure the winners get paid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Biden tests negative, Pence is the same

    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1312065485400346625


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,241 ✭✭✭✭ Muahahaha


    Betfair exchange offering Trump at 2.9, you would want to be an idiot to take those odds now that Trump has the virus. Pence down to 56 but he wouldnt be able to beat Biden anyway if Trump pulls out so its not even worth a throwaway bet.


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