Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Oneiric 3 · 21-01-2021 6:27pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I meant a proper easterly/north-easterly with air originating from Russia/Scandinavia. That easterly earlier in the month had mild origins from SE Europe and most of Europe was also relatively mild at the time so there wasn't any cold to tap into.

Fair enough, but I think we both need to face facts. Northerlies and easterlies, the kind we both know and love, are increasingly rare beasts. What was so easily achieved at least a couple of times every winter in bygone days, now only occurs once every 6 to 10 years. I used to be sceptical of the suggestions that the deindustrialization of eastern Europe during the 80s/90ss helped change broad-scale winter synoptic patterns over the Continent, but I am beginning to see that there just might be something to it.

Oneiric 3 · 21-01-2021 6:29pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Someone who has been around here as long as you have; should know the obvious reasons as to why.
.

I do, and did before long before it occurred.

But anyway, I stand by my earlier comment about 'Atlantic slop'. If that is what it is to those who call it that, then it makes no sense as to why the start getting palpitations if the charts start showing that they might get some. The logic doesn't add up.

downwiththatsor · 21-01-2021 7:05pm

Euro4 latest for Saturday morning, hopefully tomorrow mornings update will have detail for Sunday morning

21-01-2021 7:15pm

Euro4 I generally find useless
Away from coasts and the Atlantic marine layerI'm sure there will be a bit of temporary cover for some
I'm fast losing interest in the overall winter picture
The scamstrat has done nothing of note except confirm We can't really blame the polar vortex for mlld wet winters anymore
Thats a fallacy
Our climate/ weather is 99% governed by the north atlantic drift and by being an island splashed by it

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 7:46pm

Temps on the way down here, 2.5c and the salter has just gone past. I would imagine it'll be snowing here by 3am, if the showers persist.

Hooter23 · 21-01-2021 7:46pm

Usually expect rain with this kind of weather...but the angle and timing for the system coming in Saturday could just be enough this time for some places to get some sneachta

Tyrone212 · 21-01-2021 7:47pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You had a Scandinavian sourced E NE earlier in the month. I don't recall reading reports of 10 foot drifts during it.

If anything the Atlantic muck delivered more snow than that.

pad199207 · 21-01-2021 7:51pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

If anything the Atlantic muck delivered more snow than that.

Slush

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 7:53pm

It really depends on the initial source of the airmass, and how cold it is there. I have had a good covering of snow out of a 'Polar Maritime' sourced airmass from eastern Canada in the last few years.

I think the colder it is at the source, the better.

Tyrone212 · 21-01-2021 7:55pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Slush

People in here reported having laying snow for a couple of days from that "slush" . Don't think anywhere even had slush from that Easterly Oneiric mentioned.

ninebeanrows · 21-01-2021 8:04pm

Rain, sleet and hill snow

You'd soon grow despondent with how dismal our winters are. We cannot even get a decent storm anymore.

I guess we lived through the big snow of 2010 and large snow event of 2018 so we can't complain too much.

Another frustrating set of charts tonight all things considered.

pad199207 · 21-01-2021 8:08pm

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Rain, sleet and hill snow

You'd soon grow despondent with how dismal our winters are. We cannot even get a decent storm anymore.

I guess we lived through the big snow of 2010 and large snow event of 2018 so we can't complain too much.

Another frustrating set of charts tonight all things considered.

I think that could well be the issue nowadays. Since 2010 our expectations have been set through the roof for every following winter since and we are hoping and hoping that it will happen again soon.

Meteorite58 · 21-01-2021 8:16pm

Much colder air mass showing up on the models for Sat evening into Sunday compared to yesterday , Models yesterday were generally showing 850 hPa temps just below freezing with a lot of mixing going on , for Saturday evening into Sunday in general showing -5 ,-6C, as usual the GFS is showing colder, and 2m air temperatures and ground temperatures will be much colder then yesterday. A night time event usually helps that bit also. ECM, ICON has most snowfall in northern counties, GFS W half of the country but probably overdoing the cold, UKMO keeping the snowfall in a line from Galway down to Kilkenny.

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 8:27pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Much colder air mass showing up on the models for Sat evening into Sunday compared to yesterday , Models yesterday were generally showing 850 hPa temps just below freezing with a lot of mixing going on , for Saturday evening into Sunday in general showing -5 ,-6C, as usual the GFS is showing colder, and 2m air temperatures and ground temperatures will be much colder then yesterday. A night time event usually helps that bit also. ECM, ICON has most snowfall in northern counties, GFS W half of the country but probably overdoing the cold, UKMO keeping the snowfall in a line from Galway down to Kilkenny.

Looks fairly good to me. We just need the showers to be frequent or persistent.

Gaoth Laidir · 21-01-2021 9:04pm

The airmass itself won't be that much colder. It's surface cooling that will be key during Saturday evening. The airmass for Saturday night is actually a regurgitation of Christopher, with the warm sector looping back west and the south again over Ireland.

We need that cooling.

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 9:10pm

Already 1.8c and the colder air hasn’t arrived yet.

Reversal · 21-01-2021 9:34pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The airmass itself won't be that much colder. It's surface cooling that will be key during Saturday evening. The airmass for Saturday night is actually a regurgitation of Christopher, with the warm sector looping back west and the south again over Ireland.

We need that cooling.

Where do you reckon that warm sector will make landfall?

Gaoth Laidir · 21-01-2021 9:41pm

It pretty much overspreads the whole country, from the northwest.

Meteorite58 · 21-01-2021 9:41pm

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 10:21pm

The precipitation has turned to snow here already. Unexpected.

https://streamable.com/jg8j38

fryup · 21-01-2021 10:26pm

^^^^^^^

where be that??

pad199207 · 21-01-2021 10:27pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The precipitation has turned to snow here already. Unexpected.

https://streamable.com/jg8j38

Looks like Sleet

mcburns07 · 21-01-2021 10:34pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The precipitation has turned to snow here already. Unexpected.

https://streamable.com/jg8j38

That's a miserable effort at snow :pac:

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 10:38pm

mcburns07 wrote: »

That's a miserable effort at snow :pac:

The cold air hasn’t even arrived yet, the last shower was rain.

So it bodes very well.

ninebeanrows · 21-01-2021 10:39pm

:D:D We ought to make a snow addict thread for our northern friend:D Dedication to the cause, fair play

typhoony · 21-01-2021 10:54pm

Sunday Morning in the South East inland could get some of the white stuff.

typhoony · 21-01-2021 10:57pm

area of precipitation off the galway coast right now, will it turn to snow as it moves inland or is it still too mild?

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 10:59pm

Snow event on the early hours of Sunday. Still too far out to know who will get the snow. But at the moment, Donegal looks best situated.

Freezing levels are 200m or less over all of Ulster. So should guarantee snow (as models show now).

Could be less marginal this time around as the depression forms amongst an area of cold air, and the warm sector fills as it heads east.

Gonzo · 21-01-2021 11:00pm

typhoony wrote: »

area of precipitation off the galway coast right now, will it turn to snow as it moves inland or is it still too mild?

still too mild I reckon, temperatures are above freezing almost everywhere including areas under clear skies. Showers on western coasts may turn wintry before dawn but unlikely this side of midnight.

Gaoth Laidir · 21-01-2021 11:09pm

Kermit.de.frog · 21-01-2021 11:11pm

Ground should be hardened nicely ahead of the snow overnight Saturday.

This GFS run has a lot of the precip in the southern half of the country overnight - this will be back and forth...

60-574UK.GIF?21-18

munsterlegend · 21-01-2021 11:38pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Nemo Hill will be busy.

JanuarySnowstor · 21-01-2021 11:38pm

As Kermit suggests things look like working out quite well on Saturday night.
Cork is quite frosty already tonight which is a very good sign as the real colder air is not over us yet!!

Of course there's the usual 1 or 2 who continue to tell us why it won't snow. I seem to remember similar comments 2 weeks ago when quite a few saw falling snow

typhoony · 21-01-2021 11:42pm

Fax chart shows it as an Occluded front so no proper mild sector as it crosses the south of the Country, It's actually the slider Low that the models picked up on a few days ago

Davaeo09 · 21-01-2021 11:47pm

Hopefully those charts come to fruition
Was on the wrong side of Kilkenny this week

Cousins up in Castlewarren/Revanagh Kilkenny got buckets of snow over 3-4 hours (220m ASL)

Kermit.de.frog · 21-01-2021 11:48pm

Could be an exciting night for south of Louth to Mayo

Nqp15hhu · 21-01-2021 11:52pm

ICON shows Ulster as the main area of snow risk.

Danno · 21-01-2021 11:54pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Slush

Now now young bucko, I'll have you know that there were four consecutive mornings of snow cover here down the road in southern Laois, and it was proper dry snow too

! None of that coastal slush. :pac:

Meanwhile, back at the ranch - alot of differences on the models about Saturday night, some have quite an active front, others less active.

A while to go yet. :cool:

22-01-2021 12:00am

pad199207 wrote: »

Looks like Sleet

It is,rain and bits of snow aka sleet
It could also be soft hail mixed wit rain
Its not snowing in that video

pad199207 · 22-01-2021 12:01am

Danno wrote: »

Now now young bucko, I'll have you know that there were four consecutive mornings of snow cover here down the road in southern Laois, and it was proper dry snow too ! None of that coastal slush. :pac:

Meanwhile, back at the ranch - alot of differences on the models about Saturday night, some have quite an active front, others less active.

A while to go yet. :cool:

Yes boss

munsterlegend · 22-01-2021 12:03am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As Kermit suggests things look like working out quite well on Saturday night.
Cork is quite frosty already tonight which is a very good sign as the real colder air is not over us yet!!

Of course there's the usual 1 or 2 who continue to tell us why it won't snow. I seem to remember similar comments 2 weeks ago when quite a few saw falling snow

Those 1 or 2 are usually right for the vast majority of us!

22-01-2021 12:03am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ground should be hardened nicely ahead of the snow overnight Saturday.

This GFS run has a lot of the precip in the southern half of the country overnight - this will be back and forth...

What I want to know Kermie is,is my garden going to get a better covering than yesterday?

Jim Gazebo · 22-01-2021 12:04am

I used to like the cold but now that I'm working and driving in it, **** that! My car is going to be frozen solid in the morning again in cork.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2021 12:08am

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

I used to like the cold but now that I'm working and driving in it, **** that!

We've a live one here

Gaoth Laidir · 22-01-2021 12:34am

Hard frost out there tonight. A beautiful night. We've a lot of frosty nights this winter.

Gaoth Laidir · 22-01-2021 12:37am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

As Kermit suggests things look like working out quite well on Saturday night.
Cork is quite frosty already tonight which is a very good sign as the real colder air is not over us yet!!

Of course there's the usual 1 or 2 who continue to tell us why it won't snow. I seem to remember similar comments 2 weeks ago when quite a few saw falling snow

Not sure if that's aimed at me or not. If it is, I was the one who started the snow thread two weeks ago. And we didn't get that snow yesterday.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2021 12:41am

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Not sure if that's aimed at me or not. If it is, I was the one who started the snow thread two weeks ago. And we didn't get that snow yesterday.

Not sure if that's aimed at me or not :pac:

Kermit.de.frog · 22-01-2021 12:45am

AuntySnow wrote: »

What I want to know Kermie is,is my garden going to get a better covering than yesterday?

Yes, yes it is.

redsteveireland · 22-01-2021 12:48am

Nice frosty night again, down to - 2, question is how warm will that rain be when it gets here, its extremely slow moving though..

pad199207 · 22-01-2021 12:49am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, yes it is.

Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

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