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Snow watch until Sunday 24th (N,W,SW most at risk)

Kermit.de.frog

Thread for flooding potential Connaught, North Leinster, South Ulster through Monday night/Tuesday/first half of Wednesday.

Heavy snow potential second half of Wednesday particularly Leinster and Munster. Much colder by evening.

Surprised a thread wasn't started for the flood potential. Will update this OP in the morning.

Interesting 48 hours to come from tonight to say the least.

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Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

I meant a proper easterly/north-easterly with air originating from Russia/Scandinavia. That easterly earlier in the month had mild origins from SE Europe and most of Europe was also relatively mild at the time so there wasn't any cold to tap into.

Fair enough, but I think we both need to face facts. Northerlies and easterlies, the kind we both know and love, are increasingly rare beasts. What was so easily achieved at least a couple of times every winter in bygone days, now only occurs once every 6 to 10 years. I used to be sceptical of the suggestions that the deindustrialization of eastern Europe during the 80s/90ss helped change broad-scale winter synoptic patterns over the Continent, but I am beginning to see that there just might be something to it.

Oneiric 3

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Someone who has been around here as long as you have; should know the obvious reasons as to why.
.

I do, and did before long before it occurred.

But anyway, I stand by my earlier comment about 'Atlantic slop'. If that is what it is to those who call it that, then it makes no sense as to why the start getting palpitations if the charts start showing that they might get some. The logic doesn't add up.

downwiththatsor

Euro4 latest for Saturday morning, hopefully tomorrow mornings update will have detail for Sunday morning

[Deleted User]

Euro4 I generally find useless
Away from coasts and the Atlantic marine layerI'm sure there will be a bit of temporary cover for some
I'm fast losing interest in the overall winter picture
The scamstrat has done nothing of note except confirm We can't really blame the polar vortex for mlld wet winters anymore
Thats a fallacy
Our climate/ weather is 99% governed by the north atlantic drift and by being an island splashed by it

Nqp15hhu

Temps on the way down here, 2.5c and the salter has just gone past. I would imagine it'll be snowing here by 3am, if the showers persist.

Hooter23

Usually expect rain with this kind of weather...but the angle and timing for the system coming in Saturday could just be enough this time for some places to get some sneachta

Tyrone212

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

You had a Scandinavian sourced E NE earlier in the month. I don't recall reading reports of 10 foot drifts during it.

If anything the Atlantic muck delivered more snow than that.

pad199207

Tyrone212 wrote: »

If anything the Atlantic muck delivered more snow than that.

Slush

Nqp15hhu

It really depends on the initial source of the airmass, and how cold it is there. I have had a good covering of snow out of a 'Polar Maritime' sourced airmass from eastern Canada in the last few years.

I think the colder it is at the source, the better.

Tyrone212

pad199207 wrote: »

Slush

People in here reported having laying snow for a couple of days from that "slush" . Don't think anywhere even had slush from that Easterly Oneiric mentioned.

ninebeanrows

Rain, sleet and hill snow

You'd soon grow despondent with how dismal our winters are. We cannot even get a decent storm anymore.

I guess we lived through the big snow of 2010 and large snow event of 2018 so we can't complain too much.

Another frustrating set of charts tonight all things considered.

pad199207

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Rain, sleet and hill snow

You'd soon grow despondent with how dismal our winters are. We cannot even get a decent storm anymore.

I guess we lived through the big snow of 2010 and large snow event of 2018 so we can't complain too much.

Another frustrating set of charts tonight all things considered.

I think that could well be the issue nowadays. Since 2010 our expectations have been set through the roof for every following winter since and we are hoping and hoping that it will happen again soon.

Meteorite58

Much colder air mass showing up on the models for Sat evening into Sunday compared to yesterday , Models yesterday were generally showing 850 hPa temps just below freezing with a lot of mixing going on , for Saturday evening into Sunday in general showing -5 ,-6C, as usual the GFS is showing colder, and 2m air temperatures and ground temperatures will be much colder then yesterday. A night time event usually helps that bit also. ECM, ICON has most snowfall in northern counties, GFS W half of the country but probably overdoing the cold, UKMO keeping the snowfall in a line from Galway down to Kilkenny.

Nqp15hhu

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Much colder air mass showing up on the models for Sat evening into Sunday compared to yesterday , Models yesterday were generally showing 850 hPa temps just below freezing with a lot of mixing going on , for Saturday evening into Sunday in general showing -5 ,-6C, as usual the GFS is showing colder, and 2m air temperatures and ground temperatures will be much colder then yesterday. A night time event usually helps that bit also. ECM, ICON has most snowfall in northern counties, GFS W half of the country but probably overdoing the cold, UKMO keeping the snowfall in a line from Galway down to Kilkenny.

Looks fairly good to me. We just need the showers to be frequent or persistent.

Gaoth Laidir

The airmass itself won't be that much colder. It's surface cooling that will be key during Saturday evening. The airmass for Saturday night is actually a regurgitation of Christopher, with the warm sector looping back west and the south again over Ireland.

We need that cooling.

Nqp15hhu

Already 1.8c and the colder air hasn’t arrived yet.

Reversal

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The airmass itself won't be that much colder. It's surface cooling that will be key during Saturday evening. The airmass for Saturday night is actually a regurgitation of Christopher, with the warm sector looping back west and the south again over Ireland.

We need that cooling.

Where do you reckon that warm sector will make landfall?

Gaoth Laidir

It pretty much overspreads the whole country, from the northwest.

Meteorite58

Nqp15hhu

The precipitation has turned to snow here already. Unexpected.

https://streamable.com/jg8j38

fryup

^^^^^^^

where be that??

pad199207

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The precipitation has turned to snow here already. Unexpected.

https://streamable.com/jg8j38

Looks like Sleet

[Deleted User]

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The precipitation has turned to snow here already. Unexpected.

https://streamable.com/jg8j38

That's a miserable effort at snow :pac:

Nqp15hhu

mcburns07 wrote: »

That's a miserable effort at snow :pac:

The cold air hasn’t even arrived yet, the last shower was rain.

So it bodes very well.

ninebeanrows

:D:D We ought to make a snow addict thread for our northern friend:D Dedication to the cause, fair play

typhoony

Sunday Morning in the South East inland could get some of the white stuff.

typhoony

area of precipitation off the galway coast right now, will it turn to snow as it moves inland or is it still too mild?

Nqp15hhu

Snow event on the early hours of Sunday. Still too far out to know who will get the snow. But at the moment, Donegal looks best situated.

Freezing levels are 200m or less over all of Ulster. So should guarantee snow (as models show now).

Could be less marginal this time around as the depression forms amongst an area of cold air, and the warm sector fills as it heads east.

Gonzo

typhoony wrote: »

area of precipitation off the galway coast right now, will it turn to snow as it moves inland or is it still too mild?

still too mild I reckon, temperatures are above freezing almost everywhere including areas under clear skies. Showers on western coasts may turn wintry before dawn but unlikely this side of midnight.

Gaoth Laidir