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Winter Charts 2011/2012

12357…22

Comments

  • #202
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Iancar29 wrote: »

    You posted a chart from 2010 :confused:

    Look above that one... :rolleyes:


  • #203
    dsmythy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,520 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    FI seems to trend towards an outbreak of cold from the north rather than the east. RTÉ wont care since it will just be the northwest getting the snow if that were the case :D


  • #204
    srocliffe
    Registered Users Posts: 117 ✭✭srocliffe


    That's the first even remotely decent chart in a while in FI, maybe a trend, or more likely it will be gone again on the next run.


  • #205
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    O M G!!! :D:D:D


    ECM1-144.GIF





    ..... :pac: ;)

    If that chart was a woman i'd get down on one knee and marry it


  • #206
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Winter is coming...

    gefs2.png

    gefs1.png

    gefs3.png


  • #207
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Type of setup wont give snow on low lying areas but its nice to see . :D


  • #208
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    3 of 20 perturbations the best we can do, at 384 hours?!

    Thats taking FI too far . . .:P


  • #209
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    thetonynator wrote: »
    3 of 20 perturbations the best we can do, at 384 hours?!

    Thats taking FI too far . . .:P

    It has to start somewhere ,

    Last year was somewhat similar , nothing on the charts then bang out of nowhere in it came.


  • #210
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    0z GFS has thrown up some really interesting developments from 192h onwards this morning, an easterly flow across the north Atlantic and a high building over Greenland eventually dragging down some cold air. Looks very similar to last Novembers outcome :)


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  • #211
    arctictree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Yep, very depths of FI showing an interesting setup. Bordering on the timeframe for snow now...

    Rtavn3841.png

    Interesting signs on both GFS and ECM of an Atlantic/GL HP starting an easterly setup...


  • #212
    john mayo 10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 962 ✭✭✭john mayo 10


    look whats cominggfs-1-384.png?0


  • #213
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Things are looking up people:D


  • #214
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    john mayo 10 wrote: »
    look whats cominggfs-1-384.png?0

    never seen that mch of the northern hemisphere enveloped in lovely dark blue:D


  • #215
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Will people please save the chart and then upload it from their computer rather than linking to the image on meteociel etc. which just get updated and it gets very confusing. For example if you look baove this morning those charts showed an nice easterly now just typical atlantic zonality.


  • #216
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    john mayo 10 wrote: »
    look whats cominggfs-1-384.png?0

    Yes!!! Boring normality!


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  • #217
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    baraca wrote: »
    Yes!!! Boring normality!

    Earlier on that showed an easterly. Oh how wished people would stop just linking charts :mad:


  • #218
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Here we are

    gfs-2011110400-0-372_rqf5.png

    Nothing spectacular on that chart from our point of view but its more the fact that there's a high over Greenland and an easterly extending as far as Newfoundland!

    A largely similar set up on the 12z GFS

    gfs-0-384_bqw3.png

    Gone again now but its the first sign of a proper cold spell at least

    Edit: Turns out its not gone! Was looking at the 6z thinking it was the 12z, a high building to our north around the 12th hopefully


  • #219
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    It's a game of spot the difference!
    FI, 18th November this year
    180233.png

    18th November last year
    180234.png

    Ok, there are a fair few differences, but a similar general set-up:pac:


  • #220
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Here's another nice one!

    180237.png
    180238.png


  • #221
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    180267.pngSo close !


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  • #222
    Conor30
    Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Conor30


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Here's another nice one!

    What website do you get those charts from?


  • #223
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Conor30 wrote: »
    What website do you get those charts from?

    From here. http://meteociel.fr/ Click on GFS Europe, then when the page loads up you can choose GEFS ensembles near the top. From there you can go through each individual run.


  • #224
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Encouraging signs. Hope its the start of a trend.

    180284.png

    180285.png


  • #225
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    This is from the 0Z, lovely

    180288.png

    180292.png


  • #226
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    A trend emerging?


  • #227
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Could be, 06z has cold but not as bad

    180298.png


  • #228
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Could be, 06z has cold but not as bad

    180298.png

    Downgrade on the 06z run but we all know that could change again on the 12z. The joys of model watching this time of year ;)


  • #229
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Downgrade on the 06z run but we all know that could change again on the 12z. The joys of model watching this time of year ;)

    Its true, now I have to find something to fill the time between model runs ! haha :pac:


  • #230
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Still trying to hang onto the cold

    180318.png


  • #231
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Still very littel on thoese charts, hopefully we will see a major change in the next week or so


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  • #232
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Still very littel on thoese charts, hopefully we will see a major change in the next week or so

    In fairness, its a big change, the GFS is showing a trend of a cold outbreak towards the end of the month. The details may change with every run, but the trend is there. Up til now we've been seeing atlantic zonality the whole way out.


  • #233
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    thetonynator wrote: »
    In fairness, its a big change, the GFS is showing a trend of a cold outbreak towards the end of the month. The details may change with every run, but the trend is there. Up til now we've been seeing atlantic zonality the whole way out.

    True your right about the trend has being showing a lot, would be nice to see a lot deeper cold over europe, but early days yet


  • #234
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    True your right about the trend has being showing a lot, would be nice to see a lot deeper cold over europe, but early days yet

    Current forecasts are putting a lot of snow into western russia and maybe parts of eastern europe over the next week, so hopefully we'll have a decent cold pool there to tap into.


  • #235
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    This was posted over in Netweather its still low res ECMFW, but might be a sign:) most of us can only see out the 240+

    Morning all...

    Well I hold good news, well depending on your terminology of good news that is. I've looked at the latest EC 32 day info this morning and the signal for a pattern change later in November and into early December is still there and in a big way!

    Up to the middle of month high pressure persists to the E and this maintains relatively mild conditions, driest in the E, wettest in the W etc. However, beyond mid-month what the model is signalling is for high pressure to migrate and there is then the development of a +ve pressure anom to the N or NW of the UK during the final week of November and into early December, as low pressure becomes dominant to the S. In essence the final week of the 32 day forecast is signalling a pattern similar to that of last year with E or NE'lies across the UK and there is a dramatic drop in temperature forecast during the final quarter of the forecast period.

    Clearly I put emphasis on this model signalling a potential pattern change this time last week and whilst any longer term model is open to change, I do have quite a decent liking to this model as it has picked up trends at times throughout this year weeks in advance. Clearly this post will be fascinating to read and come back to in around 3 weeks time to see what is actually on the horizon for the end of November, but IF this model is picking up this pattern change correctly then it would seem that another dramatic turn-around to something far more wintry is likely towards the end of November onwards...

    Time will tell!...

    Matt.
    Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
    Meteorologist
    Weather Commerce Ltd
    On Twitter @MattHugo81


  • #236
    NIALL D
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    sounds interesting !!! :)


  • #237
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Hurry..... up.... next.... model.... run

    I think I am addicted :o


  • #238
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Its kinda gone :(

    180347.png


  • #239
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Probably the largest number of cool/cold charts I've seen in a single run this year, here are a few.

    180395.png

    180396.png

    180398.png


  • #240
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    Probably the largest number of cool/cold charts I've seen in a single run this year, here are a few.

    180395.png

    180396.png

    180398.png



    :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:....* HAPPY FEELING INSIDE! *

    :D


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  • #241
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looking at the 06Z GFS ensembles, the average 850 temp drops down closer to the 0 degree mark after the middle of the month or so.

    So there are hints there in FI of a gradual change on the cards but nothing very dramatic or consistent yet.

    Early days anyway.


  • #242
    Conor30
    Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭✭Conor30


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    From here. http://meteociel.fr/ Click on GFS Europe, then when the page loads up you can choose GEFS ensembles near the top. From there you can go through each individual run.


    Thanks, but don't know how others get beyond 180 hours. :confused:


  • #243
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Conor30 wrote: »
    Thanks, but don't know how others get beyond 180 hours. :confused:

    Press "Suite" :)


  • #244
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS in FI....nothing interesting there at all I'm afraid!


  • #245
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Quick look at the ensembles, #7 is really nice.

    2dca3w0.png

    9hiet0.png


  • #246
    MiNdGaM3
    Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Quick look at the ensembles, #7 is really nice.

    2dca3w0.png

    9hiet0.png

    Finest FI charts so far.
    And to accompany those, here's the 2m temp, below 4C across the country at 2pm!

    180434.png

    Heavy snowy showers in the south and east

    180433.png


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  • #247
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!


  • #248
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    leahyl wrote: »
    Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!

    The charts above are nice to look at but are pure fantasy, not going to happen in the real world. Sorry! :p


  • #249
    irishdub14
    Closed Accounts Posts: 454 ✭✭irishdub14


    Could someone put 'Fantasy' in capitals please?!


  • #250
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    leahyl wrote: »
    Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!

    Very very premature. Wait til you're looking at charts with December dates under 144 hrs and then get excited!


  • #251
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    thetonynator wrote: »
    leahyl wrote: »
    Is it a bit premature to get really excited??!!

    Very very premature. Wait til you're looking at charts with December dates under 144 hrs and then get excited!

    God dammit!! :-P


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