Winter Charts 2011/2012

TheInquisitor

So folks i have found the first FI chart of the winter season!

Worryingly i've had to start this thread 12 days later than last years!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056029276

Here's the first chart of the new season! Enjoy

With SSt's still very high its unlikely to get anything close to snow near the ground however its possible we might get some snow on mountain tops. The cold air will be moving quickly down from the north so shouldn't have much time to warm up. It's showing -4 temps all over northern ireland and -6 temps just off the north west coast.



and another

More northerly this time. Cold chill in the air. Maybe some sleet and snow on mountain tops in the extreme north



The main thing being this is the first day that i've never minus 850hPa temps in charts over Ireland since the spring.

The chances of anything like this coming off are less than 1/100 as the charts are this range change so often. Its called Fantasy Island for a reason!

AS this time of year at the very least you'd want -8 temps to have any chance of snow at lower levels.

In any case...IT BEGINS!

Pangea

Thanks, a little explanation wouldn't go a miss to explain what the chart would bring. Please.

TheInquisitor

Just a note on sea temps. They seem to be about a degree lower this year compared to the same time last year. This come allow an earlier winter...

In fact off the south coast their 2 degrees lower!

Yesterday's temps



Last years temps


And where the temps need to get to this winter!

NIALL D

sweet , love this thread,. always interesting to watch ta !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I was only sitting in work today thinking I would love this thread to come up again ! BRAVO !! :pac:

Iancar29

ITS BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKK WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


So what if that chart probably changes to a heatwave in tomorrows run... ha

Elmo5

now this is more like it!!! :D:D

Su Campu

The northeastern Atlantic has been colder than normal for much of the summer, and after a brief recovery, it's cooling down again to our southwest. However, to our north and east - the best source of our cold - seas are well above normal at the moment.



Look at the actual temperatures. The 7 °C isotherm stretches from southern Greenland, past northern Iceland and on towards Svalbard, meaning there's a lot of warm sea between there and here. I think this thread's around a month too early, but I suppose why not another winter thread!

Tactical

It begins

Leaves are starting to fall off the trees, changing the tyres on the vehicle shortly for proper winter tyres.

Looking forward to the winter and the fun that snow watch brings Great to see so many people following a thread and always such fun too with a nice bunch of people

Bring it on :D:D

Harps

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks, a little explanation wouldn't go a miss to explain what the chart would bring. Please.

To give a quick explanation of the 850hPa charts, basically theyre showing the temp of the air at the 850hPa height, roughly 1500m up in the atmosphere.

The chart itself is pretty self explanitory, theres a legend along the bottom showing the temperature, obviously blue = cold and yellow & red = warm. Typically during the winter we need temps somewhere around -5C before we can start thinking of snow on low ground and around -7C or -8C for some proper stuff

The charts are available here, just click 'precharger' on the left and run your mouse along the hours

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

For proper FI stuff, click 'Suite' at the bottom to show the long term prediction

aurora 527

NIALL D wrote: »

sweet , love this thread,. always interesting to watch ta !

Totally agree!

Min

This morning it shows mild to warm weather upto the 10th of October

thetonynator

Min wrote: »

This morning it shows mild to warm weather upto the 10th of October

That sort of a run was never going to happen anyway. And neither is the one it's showing now!

tomcosgrave

Great to see this back. Lampost watchers unite!

bb1234567

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Great to see this back. Lampost watchers unite!

hah i didnt know other people watched lamposts to see if it was snowing til now, thought i was the only one ! spent most of december sitting on the couch by the window watching the lamposts for snow..im so sad:p oh well:D

tomcosgrave

Watching lamposts is the first sign of madness.
I felt much better when I first started reading this forum and realised that I wasn't alone ;-)

NIALL D

tomcosgrave wrote: »

Watching lamposts is the first sign of madness.
I felt much better when I first started reading this forum and realised that I wasn't alone ;-)

lol , tiz a fact !!!!!

TheInquisitor

I have saved this picture on my computer as "Grasping at straws"

This is the best one after going through every of the 20 GEFS Perturbations

Mountainsandh

That should really include front porch lights. I mean, we rural dwellers are fully entitled to watch them too if we like. Mine is very good and the angle is just right for "cornerofmyeye" watching. Of course even better if the car's parked right near it.

bb1234567

TheInquisitor wrote: »

I have saved this picture on my computer as "Grasping at straws"

This is the best one after going through every of the 20 GEFS Perturbations

-2 degress at 3pm in mid october in dublin :O thatd be amazing sure it was only a bit colder during daytime in december 2010 daytime highs in dublin were only like -3. coule the above actually happen?:)

Redsunset

Not insulting your intelligence but there 1500 temps not 2m

patneve2

bb1234567 wrote: »

-2 degress at 3pm in mid october in dublin :O thatd be amazing sure it was only a bit colder during daytime in december 2010 daytime highs in dublin were only like -3. coule the above actually happen?:)

that is at 850 level....which translates to 1500 meters....so that -3 temperature is actually forecast at 1500 meters

bb1234567

my bad:o im only 15 dont know much about weather sorry!:o
anywho what temps would -2 at 1500m mean for a dublin suburb fairly far away from city centre like rathgar where my old house is ?

TheInquisitor

At this time of year it would be anywhere from 4 degrees to 8 degrees depending on cloud cover etc

Duiske

bb1234567 wrote: »

anywho what temps would -2 at 1500m mean for a dublin suburb fairly far away from city centre like rathgar where my old house is ?

For a rough idea, if you add 10 degrees to the 1500m temps you will not be too far out. So -2 at 1500m should see temps in or around +8 at 2m.

bb1234567

im not actually 2m above sea level guys! im a lot more inland than dublin city centre nd im prob around 250m above sea level so what temp now then?

thetonynator

bb1234567 wrote: »

im not actually 2m above sea level guys! im a lot more inland than dublin city centre nd im prob around 250m above sea level so what temp now then?

About 1.5-2 degrees lower, so around 6 degrees or so. No chance of snow, except on mountains.

megatron989

If pure willpower alone could cause snow I think it'd be like the snowpocalypse out their already! O how megatron loves the snow (and the f5 key, lol)

alfa beta

Hey bb - as a rule of thumb you'd want the -8 shade of blue over the country before you've any real chance of seeing some white stuff.

sparrowcar

Big smile on my face when i saw this thread back. Myself and my dad even chat about FI charts anytime I see him during winter... Gas

kstand

Lads where do ye get these graphs from?
Is there any website that provides them freely where I could get them myself?
Must admit I loved these threads last year.

Iancar29

kstand wrote: »

Lads where do ye get these graphs from?
Is there any website that provides them freely where I could get them myself?
Must admit I loved these threads last year.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

Under T+192h press "Suite" and its goes into FI

TheInquisitor

This is an interesting ole chart! -6 temps widespread over ireland and a touch of -8's. Keep the faith folks. Winter will be here soon! I found it quite strange this week though ordering all of our winter gear ( Shoe studs, sledges , scrapers etc) when it was touching 25-26 degrees here this week!

NIALL D

TheInquisitor wrote: »

This is an interesting ole chart! -6 temps widespread over ireland and a touch of -8's. Keep the faith folks. Winter will be here soon! I found it quite strange this week though ordering all of our winter gear ( Shoe studs, sledges , scrapers etc) when it was touching 25-26 degrees here this week!

nice

:D

thetonynator

NIALL D wrote: »

nice

:D

If only it said +24 hours instead of +324!

NIALL D

thetonynator wrote: »

If only it said +24 hours instead of +324!

fact !!! will be some changes before that never happens lol ...

TheInquisitor

This came out of no where. For exactly this day next week. Would put a decent chill in the air on the east coast of Ireland and probably some snow for scotland!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

TheInquisitor wrote: »

This came out of no where. For exactly this day next week. Would put a decent chill in the air on the east coast of Ireland and probably some snow for scotland!

Gone on the 06Z as far as I can see



Apologies, still there !!

cherryghost

Looking at the charts it looks like we're getting some northerly airflow for about 5-6 days before a calming and some westerlies. All in all though it does look dry at least.

leahyl

cherryghost wrote: »

Looking at the charts it looks like we're getting some northerly airflow for about 5-6 days before a calming and some westerlies. All in all though it does look dry at least.

Does this mean cold weather or?

Westerlies means milder air I presume?

cherryghost

I think it'll be colder than average (10-12 perhaps, maybe struggling into double digits?) from midweek next week onwards for those days, before returning to average october temperatures (mid-teens at best)

dsmythy

A mere temporary chill. I'm sure the FIers are after something jucier.

thetonynator

dsmythy wrote: »

A mere temporary chill. I'm sure the FIers are after something jucier.

A temporary chill is the best we can expect in October to be fair.

Tactical

thetonynator wrote: »

A temporary chill is the best we can expect in October to be fair.

thetonynator

Tactical wrote: »

In fairness, it's true! It's like april snow, it's possible, it looks lovely for a few minutes but it can't last any length and is very slushy.

I still like looking at the FI charts and dreaming though!!!

aurora 527

thetonynator wrote: »

If only it said +24 hours instead of +324!

Sigh..if only!

Wine Goddess

Lads let's enjoy our mini Indian summer while we can!
( Sorry to those elsewhere outside of Dublin having a crap week.....)
However I am really looking forward to lamppost watching with the best of them...when the time comes...
AND IT WILL! THE MORE I SHOUT THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO SNOOOOOW!

thetonynator

The best I could find for today (i.e. not very good.)

Su Campu

Nice one for next Saturday!

thetonynator

Su Campu wrote: »

Nice one for next Saturday!

Bit strange to see an easterly/ slightly north easterly flow bring that low 850 temps in early October!!!

Su Campu

thetonynator wrote: »

Bit strange to see an easterly/ slightly north easterly flow bring that low 850 temps in early October!!!

Ah I was just kidding to see if anyone would notice! I had a little bit of fun with Photoshop!