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Winter Charts 2011/2012

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    so those charts would bring sleet to lower levels and snow to hills woulnt it?

    Yes on Fantasy Ireland...i mean Island :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    MiNdGaM3 wrote: »
    That's the most likely general outcome, yeah. I'm sure some low lying areas would get a covering, especially if the precipitation occurred at night.

    thatd be good enough for me for now. i dont really care for snow til end of november, just want not mild weather until then. anything before end of november wont be the proper stuff itll just turn to slush during the day if it does happen,i'd like all the snow begin same time it happened last year:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    thatd be good enough for me for now. i dont really care for snow til end of november, just want not mild weather until then. anything before end of november wont be the proper stuff itll just turn to slush during the day if it does happen,i'd like all the snow begin same time it happened last year:)

    But you're in Cork.......:mad:

    Easterly wont really deliver much for you unless we get that frontal battle which models promised so often last year and only delivered south of England instead.

    I guess Cork would do best from a Northwesterly, ice days and snow lying to long doesn't really come from that direction though due to the maritime mix :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    But you're in Cork.......:mad:

    Easterly wont really deliver much for you unless we get that frontal battle which models promised so often last year and only delivered south of England instead.

    I guess Cork would do best from a Northwesterly, ice days and snow lying to long doesn't really come from that direction though due to the maritime mix :(

    well im from dublin and only moved to cork start of september because of my dads job. we still own our house in dublin so well be up most weekends and for xmas holidays so i'll get to spend plenty of time in snow capital:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 91 ✭✭TheMutations


    But you're in Cork.......:mad:

    Easterly wont really deliver much for you unless we get that frontal battle which models promised so often last year and only delivered south of England instead.

    I guess Cork would do best from a Northwesterly, ice days and snow lying to long doesn't really come from that direction though due to the maritime mix :(
    Cork, the city area, does best from either easterlies or south-easterlies. Most north-westerlies tend to deliver wet snow which melts quickly. Last December was the first time I can remember that we got proper powdery snow from a northwest direction. Also too many mountains in the way, a situation which applies to all directions except for the east and the south-east. Might as well be living in Florida.:mad:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Cork, the city area, does best from either easterlies or south-easterlies. Most north-westerlies tend to deliver wet snow which melts quickly. Last December was the first time I can remember that we got proper powdery snow from a northwest direction. Also too many mountains in the way, a situation which applies to all directions except for the east and the south-east. Might as well be living in Florida.:mad:

    I hate it when an easterly turns to the south east :mad: even when it's a cold europe i feel it just picks up to much warm air in the celtic sea and with my location so near the coast it often turns to a sleety mix :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Still some potential there for a wintry mix to effect the NW next week.
    We just need more cold air closer to us .

    6034073

    6034073

    177879.png

    Something to keep an eye on for hilly snowfalls i thinks :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    And the ECM

    ECM0-144_tzm3.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    :)

    " Tuesday 18th Oct. 0600 hrs "
    177915.gif

    2 C for parts in the blue apparently :)

    Its not a sign of snow i know, but i shall definitely sleep well with those temps! FINALLY! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    :)

    " Tuesday 18th Oct. 0600 hrs "
    177915.gif

    2 C for parts in the blue apparently :)

    Its not a sign of snow i know, but i shall definitely sleep well with those temps! FINALLY! :)

    The cold is great for sleep !


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    The cold is great for sleep !

    Most Definitely!... I havent had a undisturbed sleep in yonks! ha


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Most Definitely!... I havent had a undisturbed sleep in yonks! ha

    Did you ever go ahead with that idea of yours to take a photo a day of weather from the same spot and create a slideshow montage?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Models still having a lot of difficulty in getting this low pressure system due on Monday pinned down, big changes with every run. A nice ending to it on tonight's GFS

    gfs-1-180_nux7.png

    It'll more than likely be downgraded but looks like a plausible outcome so worth keeping an eye on :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Just a question on model accuracy

    See ECM:

    ECM0-144_pwc6.GIF

    And then GFS for same day

    gfs-1-138_uew8.png

    Which would be considered the most accurate ?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    Somewhere in between! Forecasters blend all of the models into one!


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Somewhere in between! Forecasters blend all of the models into one!

    Thanks :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    This seems to be a slight upgrade on the hilly snow chances for the North NExt week...
    Its seems to be shifting more to the east on each run before its gets cold enough though...Thoughts anyone? :)


    178008.png

    178009.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 955 ✭✭✭john mayo 10


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    This seems to be a slight upgrade on the hilly snow chances for the North NExt week...
    Its seems to be shifting more to the east on each run before its gets cold enough though...Thoughts anyone? :)


    178008.png

    178009.png
    could you let me know the names of the websites you can get these forcasts on please?


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    It's meteociel.fr


  • Registered Users Posts: 955 ✭✭✭john mayo 10


    cheers for that


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pangea wrote: »
    Did you ever go ahead with that idea of yours to take a photo a day of weather from the same spot and create a slideshow montage?

    No unfortunately :(.... I really need to gets me a Go Pro Camera.

    SOMEDAY ILL DO IT !:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pretty much the same on the latest run so ye im still gonna go for a first snowfall on the 19th in the northern hills :)


    178110.png

    178111.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Tomorrow's looking a bit warm in the Arctic :P

    J24-7_nje7.GIF

    Not FI but a bit of a fantasy chart none the less!


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    First snow risk chart of the winter!

    uksnowrisk.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    Quite a few ensembles showing strong storms for the 23rd, so if that's something you enjoy in winter

    StormFI.png
    StormFI2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,508 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    ^^^ That would bring some serious wind. A couple of models showing it. The ECMWF is being stubborn and perhaps more realistic with a much weaker low over us. Still FI can give us hope!


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    The 06z continues to show some stormy weather, though not quite as bad as earlier

    StormFI3.png
    StormFI3ii.png
    StormFI4.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    If only it happened a month later...

    beasterly.png

    beasterly2.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Given that it's FI it will get pushed out for at least a month . . .but then it'll vanish. :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,508 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Can't believe someone hasn't put this scary halloween chart up.

    BOO!!!


    halloween.png


    945 mb low just west of Ireland. No chance!


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