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White Xmas 2004
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21-12-2004 9:03pm#1It will be a white christmas but whether you wake upto
lying snow on Christmas is in the balance but looking
ever likely
All but the far south and southeast
can expect at very least a snow shower on the big day
but most likely is that a disturbance will push south
sometime late Christmas even and into Christmas day
But remember a white Christmas is a flake of snow falling
well thats how the bookies see it 0
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Well thats how some see it-ie recorded snowfall at the location as opposed to lying snow.Weathercheck wrote:But remember a white Christmas is a flake of snow falling
well thats how the bookies see it
Celtic bookmakers require a cm of lying snow at Dublin airport for Dublin.
As regards 0 degrees by day on the East coast I doubt it.It would definitely be the case if there was lying snow alright but it has to settle first.
20 centimetres in the North? Thats 10 inches or almost a foot which hasn't happened in a long time...
I see met Éireann tonight are going for the Atlantic shower activity model and North, northwesterlies with the highest risk of lying snow across the north and down along western counties and down right onto the south west.
That seems about right to me.
You get a feed of polar air over the warmer sea and the Atlantic holding a lot more water than the Irish sea, you could get some very heavy hail sleet and snow showers in the south west.
The risk is low in the East though, especially the south east.0 -
Well i go by measuring using a 30cm ruler which
is 12 inches so 20 cms is about 8 inches and abit
more than half a foot if im not right??
And yes i do expect the northwest to get pasted
Latest Fax charts are suplime to say the least they
show a trough moving south on Christmas Eve Night
and then one affecting the Eastern half of Ireland
on Stephen's day
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Well Dundalk and Sligo are and always were in the firing line for weather from the North.Danno wrote:Hmmm, interesting forecast by Evlyn Cusack at 00.25.
Thurles 75%
Dublin 75%
Sligo 85%
Dundalk 85%
Hats off to Weathercheck so far.
Dublin too but less so.
As for Thurles well that gets hit because it normally gets wet showery weather from the atlantic which when cold enough would be snow.
For snow lovers though I would always add a word of caution and that is, (a) it's early still and you are talking about dragging temperatures down by 12 degrees in the space of 36 hrs,I'm not saying that won't happen but it would be phenominal.
(b) we had a similar scenario in february of last year mothman summed up what happened0 -
I dont see any problems at draggin temps down
from 12c this chart shows the 850hpa temps
and shows them steasdily falling. The front introducing
the cold weather should cool down the dew points as such
Its going to be a 48hr wonder but i think if it doesnt go tits
up 70% of Ireland will wake up to a white Xmas
And i think our luck will have changed after last
years disaster but there is one important
difference to what happened last year. This northerly
is much further west placing the coldest conditons and
wettest over US .
This chart shows the synoptics last year:
The pressure was just too high and thus we it duely drizzled here in Dublin
Heres our Christmas Cold Spell as Predicted today:
As can be seen the cold spell is much further west and Ireland
under a very cold airmass and also the pressure instead of being
1010mb in last years cold snap is 990mb bringing an increased
liklihood of more intense precip 0 -
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You know when the weather forecaster has a big grin
on her face with loads of snow symbols on the map
behind that things are looking good
Ulster looks like gettin pasted and she even
had snow in Dublin on Xmas Day and that without
mention of troughs
If a polar low forms which it might to the north of
Ulster it could bring a foot of snow to ulster and
other locations, just to warn you of that for Xmas
Day usually these cant be predicted until 18-24hrs
before the event so be careful. There is a 30% chance
of one of these forming 0 -
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Yes is down for me
There server was near breakin point for the past 2 weeks
it was only a matter of time
By the way the Irish Met have issued a Severe Weather Warning
Severe weather warning
Met Eireann advisory of severe winter weather over the Christmas weekend Issued 1500 Wednesday 22nd December 2004 The weather will turn very cold across Ireland through Friday, Christmas Eve, and remain very cold through Christmas Day and St Stephens Day. Strong Northwest winds will bring wintry showers across the country; these will fall as hail, sleet and snow in many areas. Each weekend night will bring a sharp or severe frost. There will be a high risk of icy patches developing on the roads countrywide. Risk of significant accumulations (greater than 3cm) of snow at low levels Severe0 -
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Exciting times indeed, one thing I would say is that the models frequently move these systems further east closer to the forcast time frame...
I think unless there is troughs running down the Irish sea (or dream scenario for snow lovers a polar low) the likes of Dublin is very unlikely to see much .
I'd say if we (Dublin) get anything it will be from a trough or polar low and then will get a nice dumping..or we'll get nothing at all without them.
Certainly I'd go along with Weatherchecks forecast temps, Dublin usually is very very cold with a northwesterly wind of polar origin ..but often that equates to dry air and very little precipitation. Even if Dublin is 3c+ ..dew points are likely to be signifcantly below zero so in any precipitation, its likely to plummet temps and fall as sleet/snow.
All to play for at the moment, very exciting times for snow lovers (like me!!) though) Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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OK i've lost it im heading into full ramp mode
Look at that cold front swinging south
Xmas eve night!!!!!
Just Look!!!!
Ramp full steam ahead as band of snow
pushes south through xmas eve night
followed by loads of showers countrywide...
A widspread white christmas with upto 10cm'sa
of snow nationwide 0 -
Lol ...ramp away m8..look at where the 528 dam is!!! whoo hooo ...still a little early to take these features as gospel tho
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Heh-is that a yes then to herding up the cattle?
I've split the old posts off this thread and recreated the winter forecast thread.
This thread will be renamed it's to be a white Christmas and stickified untill the Xmas Snowy spell is over.
I'll re sticky the winter forecast thread in it's place at that point.0 -
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hiya Felix whereabouts are you im in Portmarnock
Dont expect anything really severe of Christmas the cold
spell is only looking like lasting 48hr but its the timing
thats exceptional. I think if that front moves south
as shown in the fax chart here in North Dublin we can
expect over 5cm's of snow if were lucky
I havent seen lying snow since the good old blizzard of
2001, febuary 27th to be exact lol!!
That night i stayed up every single hour watching the snow!!
And i'll do the same this Friday 0 -
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Felixdhc wrote:Outside of reading this forum I felt I was alone in my dreams of snow!
Believe me you are not alone in this..most weather boards are full of people who feel just the same..have a look at TWO and UKWW as good cases in point and both have many Irish members. Both boards have pro meteorologists and enthustiastic amateurs alike posting on them..and very frequently you find ..that snow fascination is common Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Gonzo wrote:any snow for around new years day? these charts show snow dangerously close to ireland/uk again http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/180_30.gif
To be honest..what happens that far ahead is anyones guess, the charts are all over the place that far ahead ..
The Dublin Ensemble shows this pretty well...
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Praetorian wrote:If we don't get snow, I'm going to bring ye to court
LOL And if i do get it right???? !!! 0 -
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UTV lol their forecasts leave alot to be desired lets say!
OK things looking great with two troughs set to move south
across the country one on Friday night and the other
on Christmas morning approaching Dublin by aroun 10am.
These bands will be probably made of of showers but
they will be prolonged! If your living in the southeast
try and just hope for a shower because its probable
you wont see any snow lying anyway. Late
into Christmas day as the wind moves to a direct
Northerly Eastern counties may be plaqued by some
frequent showers as shown on the 3rd image so stay
tuned
Trough just clearing east
Another trough reaching the south coast
And that pecular feature in the Irish Sea
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Yes indeed things are looking very interesting for all
areas north of a Wicklow on Friday Night (not picking
Wicklow to annoy anyone!!) as a frontal band of snow
moves into Ulsters ensuring them at least a white Christmas
it will then push south to affect most areas but i feel it
will dy out as it passes to far south. On Christmas day
things look like getting interesting late AM as another
feature moves in from the North bringing further appreciations
to Ulster, Leinster and Connacht. I expect areas of Ulster to
recieve upto 20cm's of snow and im expecting overall falls
to even out at 3-5cm's for the Dublin region if everything
goes well. This is enough to cause chaos in a city that will
be in a frenzy doing last minute shopping and all sorts. 5 cm's
of snow is enough to bring Dublin to a standstill and if it
comes off it duely will
Enjoy and dont be disappointed if it doesnt come off 0 -
I think you will find that on balance wicklow gets more snow than portmarnock every winter,it has 3000ft mountains you knowWeathercheck wrote:(not picking
Wicklow to annoy anyone!!)
I expect it will get a lot more than portmarnock this time too
Hey after five pages of confidence, charts and stuff, don't tell me you're losing the faithEnjoy and dont be disappointed if it doesnt come off 0 -
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Fax charts are again excellant with at least 2 troughs
crossing the entire country Things look sweet
for a white Christmas with the first band crossing the
country late on Xmas Eve and during the late morning
on Christmas day Enjoy the snow 0 -
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I've copied and pasted a post from Beat on another board(I'm sure she won't mind,I've edited out the private bits).
Beat lives in cleveland Ohio where 2 or 3 cms of snow looks more like a hard frost...BEAT wrote:Sorry but I have to do it...I know you may not care but I have to blow some steam....
I hate the city I live in,
Why the sudden change of mood you ask? I went from happy and singing to angry and psycho all because I woke up this morning to 2 almost 3 feet of snow and not one snow truck had cleans my street.
They have known all week this was coming and we were warned all week...so why werent there any trucks ready and cleaning it up you ask?
Because my city is cheap and the cut the budget on snow trucks for side streets...only main streets get cleaned then if they can spare some time they go after teh side streets...in the meantime my car is stuck in the street and will not move can not move because it is stuck in piled up snow...and i am not the only one.
So because i dont drive a truck or suv I am being punished,
think about it, 2 feet of heavy wet snow. I couldnt do it, my legs and back finally gave out and I am stranded.
I tripped and fell walking up the driveway to add to my frustration.
BTW, this is just from my trip home from work. Here is what happened this morning...
oh, this is just the beginnig.....this morning I managed to get out of my garage and out of the driveway, i got stuck but managed to get unstuck all to go to work I finally get to work after driving through hell and high water...literally highwater...city is flooding from the freezing rain and snow.
I get to the office after tripping and getting my foot stuck in my coat and ripping it, my poor trench coat.
I walk in the office and only my boss is there...he tells me,
you can go home no one else is coming in!
the worst day this city has seen in over 100 years!
driving home you read about, I ofcurse couldnt get back up the driveway, I tried to shovel it but the shovel broke and I stabbed my hand with it.
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