If Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can..

meglome · 22-02-2015 2:14pm

kabakuyu wrote: »

The same as Ireland, if the Greeks leave the Euro, how far are we behind?

Why would we leave the Euro?

Guy:Incognito · 22-02-2015 2:19pm

meglome wrote: »

Why would we leave the Euro?

Because all those new punts we printed will go to waste otherwise. Exiting the euro and going back to the punt is imminent . By summer 2011 we'll have punts in our pockets again, just watch.

Sure it said so on the Internet.

petronius · 23-02-2015 2:07pm

The big fear by Ireland, Spain and Portugal is that Greece will get a better deal or a relaxation of some of its bailout terms
Rather than siding with the people suffering austerity and the consequences of the global downturn, our government are kicking the greeks when they are down, for fear of the electoral consequences for them not standing up for our rights with the Troika and doffing the forelock with the onset of austerity via diktat from brussels and berlin.

IrishTrajan · 23-02-2015 2:09pm

petronius wrote: »

The big fear by Ireland, Spain and Portugal is that Greece will get a better deal or a relaxation of some of its bailout terms
Rather than siding with the people suffering austerity and the consequences of the global downturn, our government are kicking the greeks when they are down, for fear of the electoral consequences for them not standing up for our rights with the Troika and doffing the forelock with the onset of austerity via diktat from brussels and berlin.

We've proven that following the bail out program works. Ireland's economy is back on its feet and stable. Greece's is not.

Who do you think made the better choice?

Jim2007 · 23-02-2015 8:42pm

petronius wrote: »

The big fear by Ireland, Spain and Portugal is that Greece will get a better deal or a relaxation of some of its bailout terms
Rather than siding with the people suffering austerity and the consequences of the global downturn, our government are kicking the greeks when they are down, for fear of the electoral consequences for them not standing up for our rights with the Troika and doffing the forelock with the onset of austerity via diktat from brussels and berlin.

What is happening in Greece is not austerity - it's insolvency! They have mismanage their economy for years and years and now they have come to the end of the line - there is no money left, that is entirely different to trying to live within your means. But even at this late stage they still feel an entitlement to continue along the same path, with the rest of us footing the bill indefinitely.

The only way out of this situation for Greece is serious economic reform - Troika or no Troika. Pumping more money into Greece without requiring serious reform would be like giving opium to a drug addict - it will just fuel the downward spiral!

As for austerity, of course it works - Ireland is the proof, just as Germany, Austria and Switzerland are. Had Ireland followed the typical keynesian economics we'd actually have bigger debts today that we have!

Scofflaw · 24-02-2015 2:09pm

Jim2007 wrote:

Had Ireland followed the typical keynesian economics we'd actually have bigger debts today that we have!

Well, no, not quite, because Keynesianism would have dictated belt-tightening and fiscal discipline when things were booming. To be counter-cyclical you have to be counter-cyclical all the way round the cycle.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Sand · 24-02-2015 9:24pm

Well, he did say typical keynesian economics rather than textbook. I cant think of any modern economy running a counter-cyclical budget in good times - any attempt to do so in Ireland would lead to the Finance minster being burnt at the stake in Stephens Green. We all saw what happened to Charlie McCreevy when he tried to pull the spending back in.

Keynes simply gets dragged out whenever there is a recession and some sort of badly applied and misunderstood economic theory is kidnapped to serve as a rationale for keeping the gravy train rolling. The value of Keynes to a tiny, almost completely open economy is questionable at best.

Jim2007 · 24-02-2015 11:00pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Well, no, not quite, because Keynesianism would have dictated belt-tightening and fiscal discipline when things were booming. To be counter-cyclical you have to be counter-cyclical all the way round the cycle.

cordially,
Scofflaw

That is exactly why I said 'typical'! because the reverse never happens.

Scofflaw · 24-02-2015 11:47pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

That is exactly why I said 'typical'! because the reverse never happens.

But it's not Keynesianism at all, then. Might be better to call it pesudo-Keyensianism, perhaps, or at least "Keyensianism" - in quotes.

After all, if I mistook it, I'm sure others could too.

cordially,
Scofflaw

NIMAN · 25-02-2015 1:04am

Greece was a basket case, but you can see how the Anti-Everything brigade in Ireland love them and think we should be more like them.

Allowed to retire 10yrs before every other nation, massive tax avoidance and evasion, huge pensions for everyone, large numbers of holidays for workers and actually paying people bonuses for coming to work on time!

Jim2007 · 25-02-2015 8:59am

NIMAN wrote: »

Allowed to retire 10yrs before every other nation, massive tax avoidance and evasion, huge pensions for everyone, large numbers of holidays for workers and actually paying people bonuses for coming to work on time!

And when they are at work, it is like a social club - At one point I had three Greeks on my team - first to the coffee breaks, last back, spending ages hanging around each others desks chatting etc.... That did not go down well among their highly industrious Swiss colleagues, so when the recession hit they were gone.

12-06-2015 1:47pm

Thought it might be a good idea to bump this thread, given that there is no Greece thread in the serious side of the forum.

Just to recap where Greece is right now, it's "final" €7.2bn tranche is contingent on the implementation of reforms that are being negotiated in Brussels. If the money is not released, Greece will default on its obligations, and will be unable to issue repayments to the IMF which are already due.

The stumbling blocks are: pensions and higher taxes (resisted by Greece) and the extension of debt maturities (resisted by the Commission, supported by the IMF). Other issues have already been agreed.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GREECE_BAILOUT?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-06-11-08-51-15

17-06-2015 2:57pm

Interesting article by Walter Munchau in the FT

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5e38f1be-1116-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3dKBMWUmX

He suggests that while both of Greece's alternatives (acceptance of 4-year adjustment vs default) have downsides, the benefits of default are stronger. He categorises these as (1) an end to 'lunatic' fiscal adjustments, (2) unquestionable ability to service all future private-sector loans, as well as finally removing risk of currency redenomination, (3) improvement of Greece's external position.

On the other hand, he calculates that an acceptance of the 4-year adjustment under proposal would reduce Greek GDP by over 12%, leaving the debt to GDP ratio at an unsustainable 200%.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5e38f1be-1116-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3dKNJdIOn

He therefore recommends a default & Grexit, saying:

Comparing those two scenarios reminds me of Sir Winston Churchill’s remark that drunkenness, unlike ugliness, is a quality that wears off. The first scenario is simply ugly, and will always remain so. The second gives you a hangover followed by certain sobriety.

So if this were the choice, the Greeks would have a rational reason to prefer Grexit

RobertKK · 18-06-2015 3:57pm

Greek leader running off to Russia to have a cry on Putin's shoulder.

Well this is what happens when people vote in idiots, Paul Murphy was over in Athens to celebrate the Syriza victory, as were Sinn Fein cheerleading the victory.
When you people unwilling to negotiate, you are just asking for more trouble, it is sad the Greek people have been led further astray with the idiot Tsipras.

Ireland is a success as we weren't stupid enough to elect a far left government who have showed again and again their lack of experience. Ireland decided to keep it's friends, the Greek leadership under Tsipras have decided to burn bridges. The people who will pay are the Greek people, the rest of Europe is getting ready to cast aside Greece, if they don't want to compromise and negotiate.

It is amazing that some still think Tsipras is doing a good job as he drives Greece deeper into the gutter.

I am also fed up of people talking about the working class,m we live in a free society where everyone has the opportunity to better themselves, some rather complain and expect things to happen for them, while doing nothing to make it happen.
Taxes on wealth are high enough, some of the taxes here are higher than in some other countries, but the stupid far left think they are too low, sure in their utopia, everyone is equal and they would be - poor.

catallus · 18-06-2015 4:00pm

"Ireland is a success"?

HAHAHAHAH

That's some messed up perspective, dude.

Harry Palmr · 18-06-2015 4:04pm

catallus wrote: »

"Ireland is a success"?

HAHAHAHAH

That's some messed up perspective, dude.

Whatever about "success" it is all relative - Where would you sooner be right now?

RobertKK · 18-06-2015 4:11pm

catallus wrote: »

"Ireland is a success"?

HAHAHAHAH

That's some messed up perspective, dude.

Ireland is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, we have a very high standard of living, we have a diverse economy and have freedom.

Finnish finance minister talking on CNBC right now. He says when you make a deal you should keep it. He sais Ireland and Portugal kept to the deal, and one could argue they are among the strongest now in Europe.

He said Greece if they don't come to a deal, could default and leave the Euro, that the Eurozone would be able to handle it alright, but the Greek people wouldn't have it so good.
We made a success of the bad situation we were in, Greece continues in it's crisis.

catallus · 18-06-2015 4:12pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Whatever about "success" it is all relative

I honestly don't know what this is supposed to mean. Relative to what, precisely?

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Where would you sooner be right now?

Again, what bearing does this have on the subject. Just because the Greeks are being punished for not allowing themselves to be robbed doesn't mean Ireland is in a better position.

I'd like to be in the Seychelles, btw, fwiw.

Harry Palmr · 18-06-2015 4:14pm

The Greeks ****ed themselves up Royally. The current blow-hards in power should be jailed rather than hailed.

Saipanne · 18-06-2015 4:16pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Whatever about "success" it is all relative - Where would you sooner be right now?

I'd much rather be here.

RecordStraight · 18-06-2015 4:38pm

catallus wrote: »

I honestly don't know what this is supposed to mean. Relative to what, precisely?

Relative to the rest of the world.

LadyFenghuang · 18-06-2015 4:38pm

Of the countless writs and regulations that govern Europe’s currency club, one golden rule trumps them all, membership is conditional. Greece has been told that time and time again. The club faces two choices. It could relax its principles at the risk of losing its select status.

If Greece loses the Euro and exists the club there is little to prevent Greece from defaulting. That has serious affects for countries like Spain and us.

And yes I would rather be here.

The measures that had to be taken there were stricter and they cut spending by about 15% of their economy. The economy is suffering and politics is a mess there.

RobertKK · 18-06-2015 4:39pm

catallus wrote: »

I honestly don't know what this is supposed to mean. Relative to what, precisely?

Again, what bearing does this have on the subject. Just because the Greeks are being punished for not allowing themselves to be robbed doesn't mean Ireland is in a better position.

I'd like to be in the Seychelles, btw, fwiw.

This is a 'if Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can'. Ireland will be robbed by Greece if it doesn't pay it's debts, we loaned them hundreds of millions of Euro.
Greece owes most of it's money to fellow European taxpayers, Greece can choose to rob the rest of Europe, and if they do, the rest of Europe won't forget.
It is better to work to keep your friends, rather than think you can keep them while slapping them in the face.

tolosenc · 18-06-2015 5:02pm

RobertKK wrote: »

Ireland is a success as we weren't stupid enough to elect a far left government who have showed again and again their lack of experience.

Less that we are too stupid, more that we like sitting on the fence too much. While we elected (and I believe will return next year) a competent government, we are happy to elect a government that will kick the can down the road on the systemic issues in this country.

We won't elect anyone stupid enough to send us down the Greek road of stealing from lenders and justifying it in the name of socialism, nor will we elect anyone prepared to upset the apple cart and prevent the same mess for recurring here.

18-06-2015 6:11pm

LadyFenghuang wrote: »

Of the countless writs and regulations that govern Europe’s currency club, one golden rule trumps them all, membership is conditional.

Hardly. Not only is there no mechanism for leaving the eurozone in the treaties, there's no formal process of expulsion either.

dlouth15 · 18-06-2015 8:04pm

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Interesting article by Walter Munchau in the FT

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5e38f1be-1116-11e5-9bf8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3dKBMWUmX

He suggests that while both of Greece's alternatives (acceptance of 4-year adjustment vs default) have downsides, the benefits of default are stronger. He categorises these as (1) an end to 'lunatic' fiscal adjustments, (2) unquestionable ability to service all future private-sector loans, as well as finally removing risk of currency redenomination, (3) improvement of Greece's external position.

On the other hand, he calculates that an acceptance of the 4-year adjustment under proposal would reduce Greek GDP by over 12%, leaving the debt to GDP ratio at an unsustainable 200%.

Munchau may well be correct that economically it makes sense long term for Greece to leave the Euro but politically they have no mandate to do so and politically suicidal for a Greek leader to make that decision.

Paul Krugman explains it well in this Hardtalk interview from a couple of years ago "it has to happen with no one's fingerprints on it."

27-06-2015 1:44am

Very scary and sad...

Banks surely won't be opening on Monday. Where does Greece stand for now?

Peanut · 27-06-2015 3:04am

dlouth15 wrote: »

Munchau may well be correct that economically it makes sense long term for Greece to leave the Euro but politically they have no mandate to do so and politically suicidal for a Greek leader to make that decision.

Greek bailout referendum announced for 5th July.

I think the Greek gov. are doing the right thing. They have to be seen to be going to the very edge of default. There's a lot of noise about how Europe is prepared to let go of Greece in such a situation, but it feels like bluffing - who really has the upper hand here?

Keeping Greece in a form of economic limbo doesn't do anyone any favours, if the current proposals are unlikely to produce a sustainable improvement.

27-06-2015 3:18am

dlouth15 wrote: »

Munchau may well be correct that economically it makes sense long term for Greece to leave the Euro but politically they have no mandate to do so and politically suicidal for a Greek leader to make that decision.

Paul Krugman explains it well in this Hardtalk interview from a couple of years ago "it has to happen with no one's fingerprints on it."

What did Krugman have to say about Ireland again? Suppose it depends which way the wind was blowing on a particular day.

Deleted User wrote: »

Very scary and sad...

Banks surely won't be opening on Monday. Where does Greece stand for now?

Is that a long queue for an ATM on a Friday night?

27-06-2015 10:10am

Deleted User wrote: »

Is that a long queue for an ATM on a Friday night?

Point score?

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

@RobNisbetSky wrote:

We have seen an ATM run out of money and the queue move down to next bank. Radio stns broadcasting which ATMs still have cash.

If Greece can do it, Ireland certainly can..

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