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SUMMER WEATHER 2015 -GENERAL DISCUSSION THREAD

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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    19th in a row pff. Here in west Clare we had heavy drissle this morning/afternoon but the cloud burned off and by 4pm it was great out very warm.

    You had drissle for 19 days in a row?! ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Yes please. Some FI teases of mid-20's+ and the chance of thundery outbreaks.

    YGDgEpB.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    You had drissle for 19 days in a row?! ;)

    Haha no, not far off though :)

    I was referring to your 19th day of dry.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    Yes please. Some FI teases of mid-20's+ and the chance of thundery outbreaks.

    YGDgEpB.png

    And they're 850 hPa temperatures!!:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Yes please. Some FI teases of mid-20's+ and the chance of thundery outbreaks.

    YGDgEpB.png

    Mid twenties? More like high twenties/low thirties if something like that came off. Of course we all know it won't be that hot by the time this is nailed down probably.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ComfortKid


    Here in limerick we have had a good lashing of rain almost every 2 days since that nice week we got in early April. I feel like im in a different country reading some of the reports here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    If that chart came off (Which it wont) could we see a breaking of the 33.3c record?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    Carnacalla wrote: »
    If that chart came off (Which it wont) could we see a breaking of the 33.3c record?

    No, it is highly unlikely. 850 hPa temperatures of 14-17 °C in that setup would translate to around 28-29 °C in the midlands if cloud-cover was low. It would most likely be a hazy muggy flow with some showers sparking off.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Plume has shifted a bit further east on the latest ECMWF. Would be very hot in the south in the England if that comes off. Below is the record setting day in 2003 when a temperature of 38.5 was recorded in Kent, below that is the current ECM for 168 hours...Still all FI-land stuff of course and subject to further change blah blah

    archives-2003-8-10-0-1.png
    XLpNfWW.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Everything shifted a little east on the latest ECM but still very warm for the inland east and south all the same. Could still get mid 20's even if the ECM came off.

    GFS is the warmest (or hot) and thunderstorms would be highly likely as well. But it's a bit on it's own now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Having said that we are on a knife edge. This is serious heat coming off the continent. Even though things have shifted east a bit highs in the 30's could not be ruled out on the ECM for example.

    Recm1922.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 922 ✭✭✭FWVT


    Having said that we are on a knife edge. This is serious heat coming off the continent. Even though things have shifted east a bit highs in the 30's could not be ruled out on the ECM for example.

    Recm1922.gif

    That's still only showing max high 20s in the midlands with those 850 hPa temps of 10-17 °C. With standard pressure, low wind setting up a sea-breeze regime, and convective clouds, adding around 12 degrees to the these temperatures should give theoretical max 2m temps.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Very similar to the set up that occurred on July 2nd, 2009, though 850 hPa temps were a little lower than what is currently being projected this time around. This set up in 2009 brought some overnight thunderstorms to eastern coasts and later on the 2nd - if I recall correctly, some particular severe thunderstorms developed over Co. Donegal bringing flash flooding. (open to correction in this)

    Rcfsr_1_2009070212.png



    5kqeFT.png

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Cloudy breezy and a lot fresher today. Its all very meh really


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ComfortKid


    Horrible day yet again, wet and windy. At least it's warm rain I suppose.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Calm, mild (19C) and dull. Not a bad day; and it's day 20 of the Great Partial Drought.

    I was getting excited about the humongous heat on the way till I spotted the date - its over a week away!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,882 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Had about 10mins of our 1st dose of meaningful rain in over 2 weeks there this morning, horrible stuff


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Potential for some serious 1980's style fireworks somewhere with a chart like this. Long way off though...

    180-21UK_kxc9.GIF


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ComfortKid


    Calm, mild (19C) and dull. Not a bad day; and it's day 20 of the Great Partial Drought.


    Really, 20 days? What county?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    ComfortKid wrote: »
    Really, 20 days? What county?

    County Dublin. It has been a very good month here, very dry and sunny; bit cooler than average due to low night temps and that constant NW breeze.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Cool dark and breezy evening here. Dark already.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ComfortKid


    Cool dark and breezy evening here. Dark already.


    Can't see tomorrow being any different either! :-(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    County Dublin. It has been a very good month here, very dry and sunny; bit cooler than average due to low night temps and that constant NW breeze.

    Aye it's been 3 weeks in Arklow since the ground has been wet,we did have one or two 5 min bursts but gone
    Warmer than Dublin though which is unusual but normal for a pattern like this where upper wind flows prevent sea breezes and a high ground foehn land breeze established in sun thanks to the mountains breaking the cloud


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    If I was to target two days next week for potentially hot weather it would be Tuesday and Wednesday. Both days look well above average and mostly clear but chance of storms too.

    Recm1202.gif

    Recm1442.gif


    This may back west again in further runs but right now Tuesday and Wednesday look particularly warm. Whether we this evolve in to something more long term is up in the air.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looking less interesting for us on the 18Z GFS: high teens - low 20's in places Tue/Wed. Not as much of a plume into the UK either. Still a nice couple of days on the cards but getting a bit watered down from how things looked last night and this morning.

    Still far enough away for further changes, either way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Looking a little more interesting again on the 0Z GFS though. :) 18 degree uppers briefly reaching the east coast. Of course it could change again...

    144-7UK_vmw4.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,758 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    I only hope we can get to the heat without any "badly needed rain" :rolleyes:

    Another totally dry day here, 19th in a row.


    Hoping we get lots of rain over the next couple of days.

    Only 4.8mm in three weeks here and ground is burning in places. 4mm of that was during the night.

    Then very warm with thunderstorms later next week would be lovely.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,196 ✭✭✭OldRio


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Hoping we get lots of rain over the next couple of days.

    Only 4.8mm in three weeks here and ground is burning in places. 4mm of that was during the night.

    Then very warm with thunderstorms later next week would be lovely.

    Well I hope YOU get your rain. Us living in other parts of Ireland do not need it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,758 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    OldRio wrote: »
    Well I hope YOU get your rain. Us living in other parts of Ireland do not need it.

    Thanks, it has been a very dry year so far.

    First 6 months of the following years for my location just north of Kilkenny city.
    2012: 444mm
    2013: 351mm
    2014: 523mm
    2015 so far: 328mm

    The rain over the weekend may bring it upto 2013 levels. In 2013 we had drought conditions in the Kilkenny/Laois/Carlow/Wexford area. Before the rain last night, it was near drought conditions as it was 0.8mm of rain in 20 days.

    I like thunderstorms once they aren't too extreme, like in the mid 1980s. We hadn't many good thunderstorms in recent times in this area.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    We are on the edge of heatwave conditions next week. Tuesday and Wednesday regardless should be particularly warm but will we see an upgrade for heat and sunshine or will the Atlantic make it's presence felt with cloud and dreariness?

    It's up for grabs. Knife edge really.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Beautiful summer's day in Arklow and 22.5c again


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    21C and sunny, such a nice day.
    Should be 20-25C over the next week.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,958 ✭✭✭✭Mars Bar


    It's trying to rain here :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,506 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Been a lovely warm day in Castlebar today, but it looks and feels now that it is about to bucket down rain.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,170 ✭✭✭WheatenBriar


    Peaking at 23.2 now in Arklow, not as hot as last Saturday but pretty fine from the summer that keeps on giving :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Bit of an upgrade on the 12z GFS for next week. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look very warm or hot locally with thunderstorms as well and maybe some imports from Britain and moving up from the Bay of Biscay too. Cloudier in the west though.

    Rtavn1442.gif


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    The 20 day "drought" broke last night with 2.0mm of rain/showers. So that's it for another 3 to 5 years (or whatever the frequency of 20-day dry spells is)!

    Beautiful day, sunny, warm (22.4C) and low humidity with a light westerly.

    Looking forward to that real heat! :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ComfortKid


    The 20 day "drought" broke last night with 2.0mm of rain/showers. So that's it for another 3 to 5 years (or whatever the frequency of 20-day dry spells is)!


    Didn't we go over 30 days of drought 2 years ago.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    ComfortKid wrote: »
    Didn't we go over 30 days of drought 2 years ago.

    Yes but before that? Six years?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ComfortKid


    Yes but before that? Six years?


    I miss read your post, thought you said 20 years. Sorry.
    Anyway, it's about 12 hours since we got rain here, big dark clouds overhead now though. :-(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    UKMET now moving more toward a warmer/hot thundery period from Tuesday to Friday so seeing upgrade today for possible heatwave conditions.

    GEM keeps heatwave in to the following week.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Yep met office over here warning 'very hot' conditions next week, already been in the mid 20s this week with 28C here in London today so low to mid 30s could be on the cards next week

    In fact just looking at the latest ECMWF it's showing 20C+ 850hPa temps for four consecutive days here so almost record breaking heat if that comes off. Ireland right on the edge of the intense heat so significant thunderstorm potential all week I'd think. Latest models are prolonging the heatwave with potential for multiple reloads now as well

    Great to have some interesting weather again after such a benign year up to now :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Monsoon in Galway just now wow where did that come from


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Harps wrote: »
    Yep met office over here warning 'very hot' conditions next week, already been in the mid 20s this week with 28C here in London today so low to mid 30s could be on the cards next week

    In fact just looking at the latest ECMWF it's showing 20C+ 850hPa temps for four consecutive days here so almost record breaking heat if that comes off. Ireland right on the edge of the intense heat so significant thunderstorm potential all week I'd think. Latest models are prolonging the heatwave with potential for multiple reloads now as well

    Great to have some interesting weather again after such a benign year up to now :)

    Being on the edge of the plume can sometimes be the best place to be for thunderstorms.

    archives-1985-7-26-0-1.png
    archives-1985-7-26-0-0.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 4 LittleBittaLav


    Is this Summer going to get any better? :/


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    Is this Summer going to get any better? :/

    All weather is local I guess!

    If July and August repeated June here (Dublin) we'd be heading for one of the driest and sunniest summers on record; though no high temp records would be broken...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    The grass here (Waterford) is looking pretty parched unless its been allowed to grow long and so retain moisture


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,169 ✭✭✭ComfortKid


    Is there any chance that this plume will move over Ireland or will we stay on the edge of it? 2 or 3 days with no wind or rain and I'll be happy


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Schadenfreudia


    ComfortKid wrote: »
    Is there any chance that this plume will move over Ireland or will we stay on the edge of it? 2 or 3 days with no wind or rain and I'll be happy

    Well, if it affects Ireland it looks like continuing the good weather on the East coast, though maybe not extending it to the rest.

    We have some folk here in the east actually wishing for rain.

    I'd never do that - once it starts it often never stops.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ComfortKid wrote: »
    Is there any chance that this plume will move over Ireland or will we stay on the edge of it? 2 or 3 days with no wind or rain and I'll be happy

    The warmest air in the plume will be going over the UK. We will still feel some of it, for a while. But it won't be completely dry. There will be showery outbreaks in places and some of the showers could be heavy and thundery.

    ECU0-96_nec0.GIF


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