Realistic Economy News thread

nice_guy80 · 16-06-2015 11:49pm #1

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

Jim2007 · 17-06-2015 8:10am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

And realistic means what exactly??? Just an opinion....

If realistic means factual, then please provide a stats reference for your assertion.

andrew · 17-06-2015 10:52am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

True. On an equally realistic note, employment levels in Dublin have risen!

ireland.png

west.png

Dublin.png

Saipanne · 17-06-2015 10:53am

andrew wrote: »

True. On an equally realistic note, employment levels in Dublin have risen!

ireland.png

west.png

Dublin.png

Shh. Don't add facts to the pointless thread.

Dave! · 17-06-2015 11:07am

Godge · 17-06-2015 3:10pm

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

Given that urbanisation is the main factor driving economic growth across both the developed and developing world, surely this should belong in the good news economic thread?

Unless we shift jobs to the cities and invest in infrastructure in the cities, we will be left behind.

skafish · 17-06-2015 10:03pm

Godge wrote: »

Given that urbanisation is the main factor driving economic growth across both the developed and developing world, surely this should belong in the good news economic thread?

Unless we shift jobs to the cities and invest in infrastructure in the cities, we will be left behind.

I agree with you regarding urbanisation; however, Dublin is not the only urban area in the country, and the concentration of new jobs in the greater Dublin area is already leading to problems in relation to housing and property prices, water shortages etc. Isn't it time the other urban areas were developed as well?
As an example, the failed decentralisation lunacy of the last (or was it second last) government was actually nota bad idea, until they made a complete balls up of it. Welcome to Parlon country anyone?

Godge · 17-06-2015 11:20pm

skafish wrote: »

I agree with you regarding urbanisation; however, Dublin is not the only urban area in the country, and the concentration of new jobs in the greater Dublin area is already leading to problems in relation to housing and property prices, water shortages etc. Isn't it time the other urban areas were developed as well?
As an example, the failed decentralisation lunacy of the last (or was it second last) government was actually nota bad idea, until they made a complete balls up of it. Welcome to Parlon country anyone?

We can only support three, four cities at the most. Dublin, Cork, Limerick and one other, probably Galway.

Jim2007 · 18-06-2015 6:21am

Godge wrote: »

We can only support three, four cities at the most. Dublin, Cork, Limerick and one other, probably Galway.

Really? And why would that be, given that Euroland has plenty of successful cities with small populations.

Phoebas · 18-06-2015 6:49am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I'm going to start a Bad news economic news thread

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

There's a bit of a negativity bias going on here I think.

Godge · 18-06-2015 9:49am

Jim2007 wrote: »

Really? And why would that be, given that Euroland has plenty of successful cities with small populations.

Such as? How do you define successful and what size metrics would you use?

Most of our "cities" would only rank as towns in other countries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland_by_population

I mentioned Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway, the four biggest urban areas. After that comes Waterford with 51,519.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom

The 75th highest in the UK, Worcester, is twice the size of Waterford.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_area_(France)#List_of_France.27s_aires_urbaines_.28metropolitan_areas.29

Nancy, the 20th highest in France is nearly 10 times the size of Waterford.

http://about-france.com/tourism/main-towns-cities.htm

Reading this one, Waterford is about equivalent to Narbonne.

Jim2007 · 18-06-2015 4:22pm

Godge wrote: »

Such as? How do you define successful and what size metrics would you use?

Well for me it would be well run, good services, reasonable taxes and employment opportunities.

Take Aarau in Switzerland for instance: population of 20K or so. The unemployment rate is about 2.3%, effective tax rate is around 17%, Good public transport with connections to all major cities each hour. And of course there are public schools, hospital etc... Manufacture include bells, mathematical instruments, electrical goods, cotton textiles, cutlery, chemicals, shoes, and other products. Aarau is famous for the quality of their instruments, cutlery and their bells.

You spend any time travelling through mainland Europe and you will discover plenty of places like this. The idea that it must be big to survive is typical American economic tosh and is consumed because it is available in English!

Take the town where I live - it has a population of about 12K, there are 9 medium sized employers all family owned. Our effective tax rate is 14.5% and for that we get a local police force, fire & emergency services, hospital, public transport, 8 kindergartens, 4 primary level schools, 3 second level schools, 2 trade schools and of course all the usual service such as refuse collection etc... And during the recession employers did not let people go, because unlike MNCs the had a sense of responsibility towards the community and so other solutions were found - reduced hours, unpaid leave for was offered to people who wanted it and so on.

andrew · 18-06-2015 4:50pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

Well for me it would be well run, good services, reasonable taxes and employment opportunities.

Take Aarau in Switzerland for instance: population of 20K or so. The unemployment rate is about 2.3%, effective tax rate is around 17%, Good public transport with connections to all major cities each hour. And of course there are public schools, hospital etc... Manufacture include bells, mathematical instruments, electrical goods, cotton textiles, cutlery, chemicals, shoes, and other products. Aarau is famous for the quality of their instruments, cutlery and their bells.

You spend any time travelling through mainland Europe and you will discover plenty of places like this. The idea that it must be big to survive is typical American economic tosh and is consumed because it is available in English!

Take the town where I live - it has a population of about 12K, there are 9 medium sized employers all family owned. Our effective tax rate is 14.5% and for that we get a local police force, fire & emergency services, hospital, public transport, 8 kindergartens, 4 primary level schools, 3 second level schools, 2 trade schools and of course all the usual service such as refuse collection etc... And during the recession employers did not let people go, because unlike MNCs the had a sense of responsibility towards the community and so other solutions were found - reduced hours, unpaid leave for was offered to people who wanted it and so on.

Ireland is very much not mainland Europe, and that makes all the difference.

ardmacha · 18-06-2015 4:52pm

andrew wrote: »

Ireland is very much not mainland Europe, and that makes all the difference.

It isn't the USA either.
We should be more willing to learn from success stories elsewhere.

Godge · 18-06-2015 4:54pm

Jim2007 wrote: »

Well for me it would be well run, good services, reasonable taxes and employment opportunities.

Take Aarau in Switzerland for instance: population of 20K or so. The unemployment rate is about 2.3%, effective tax rate is around 17%, Good public transport with connections to all major cities each hour. And of course there are public schools, hospital etc... Manufacture include bells, mathematical instruments, electrical goods, cotton textiles, cutlery, chemicals, shoes, and other products. Aarau is famous for the quality of their instruments, cutlery and their bells.

You spend any time travelling through mainland Europe and you will discover plenty of places like this. The idea that it must be big to survive is typical American economic tosh and is consumed because it is available in English!

Take the town where I live - it has a population of about 12K, there are 9 medium sized employers all family owned. Our effective tax rate is 14.5% and for that we get a local police force, fire & emergency services, hospital, public transport, 8 kindergartens, 4 primary level schools, 3 second level schools, 2 trade schools and of course all the usual service such as refuse collection etc... And during the recession employers did not let people go, because unlike MNCs the had a sense of responsibility towards the community and so other solutions were found - reduced hours, unpaid leave for was offered to people who wanted it and so on.

(1) Switzerland is not Ireland, it is not like any other part of Europe.

(2) On average earnings in Ireland, your effective tax rate is a lot less than 14.5%.

Jim2007 · 18-06-2015 9:14pm

Godge wrote: »

(1) Switzerland is not Ireland, it is not like any other part of Europe.

(2) On average earnings in Ireland, your effective tax rate is a lot less than 14.5%.

So we can compare Ireland to the UK, France, but then we are not either of those either are we!

But the fact is that we are part of the EU and we are part of Euroland and on a course to build a more integrated economic unit with then, which for instance the UK is not! So it does make sense to examine what is going on there and what might be useful to pick up on.

For instance we need a housing policy that does not require everyone to take on massive personal debt in order to put a roof over their head. Our most recent attempt at that nearly bankrupt the country as it did in the US! Some EU countries have done better on that so it might be an idea to consider some alternatives.

And then there is pensions - UK and Irish pension funds for instances gets charged fees regardless of performance, where as many EU funds are required to provide minimum returns before fees are applied and others even require funds managers to provide a minimum return even when the fund under performs - in other words negative fees. Again might be some thing to look into.

On the other hand if you want to continue doing the same old thing and believing there is no other way, then so be it.

realitykeeper · 18-06-2015 10:14pm

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

I am not from the west but I absolutely take your point on the need for a reality check when talking about the economy.

The elephant in the room is the national debt. Also, bailing out the banks was a short sighted quick fix which will have devastating long term consequences.

Finally, the bond buying frenzy with ECB money is just another monitory manipulation which will not solve the problems which Ireland and other overly indebted European countries will face in the future.

ezra_pound · 18-06-2015 10:18pm

realitykeeper wrote: »

I am not from the west but I absolutely take your point on the need for a reality check when talking about the economy.

The elephant in the room is the national debt. Also, bailing out the banks was a short sighted quick fix which will have devastating long term consequences.

Finally, the bond buying frenzy with ECB money is just another monitory manipulation which will not solve the problems which Ireland and other overly indebted European countries will face in the future.

Monitory manipulation. Lol

KingBrian2 · 18-06-2015 10:21pm

Ireland is Ireland, we are unique and mostly European in outlook.

realitykeeper · 18-06-2015 10:30pm

Phoebas wrote: »

There's a bit of a negativity bias going on here I think.

Really? I would have thought most comments were designed to ridicule the thread for daring to inject an element of reality in place of the usual "talking up the economy."

Perhaps a bad news thread would go some small way toward correcting that imbalance.

Godge · 18-06-2015 10:39pm

realitykeeper wrote: »

Really? I would have thought most comments were designed to ridicule the thread for daring to inject an element of reality in place of the usual "talking up the economy."

Perhaps a bad news thread would go some small way toward correcting that imbalance.

Actually, thinking about it, we probably do need a thread for those who are constantly moaning and whinging as the economy improves, jobs are created and wages and profits rise. If they stay in here, the rest of us can get on with keeping up with reality.

ezra_pound · 18-06-2015 10:45pm

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028842.shtml

realitykeeper · 19-06-2015 4:43am

Godge wrote: »

Actually, thinking about it, we probably do need a thread for those who are constantly moaning and whinging ...

This is reminiscent of Bertie Ahern`s infamous "suicide" rant. I believe the words he used were "cribbing and moaning are a lost opportunity ..." A few months later, the economy imploded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

Saipanne · 19-06-2015 9:51am

realitykeeper wrote: »

This is reminiscent of Bertie Ahern`s infamous "suicide" rant. I believe the words he used were "cribbing and moaning are a lost opportunity ..." A few months later, the economy imploded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

That's the problem facing the economically literate. If it's boom time and they say a crash is coming (it's called a cycle for a reason), they are called "doom & gloom merchants". But when the crash comes they're blamed for "not seeing it coming".

Godge · 19-06-2015 11:39am

realitykeeper wrote: »

This is reminiscent of Bertie Ahern`s infamous "suicide" rant. I believe the words he used were "cribbing and moaning are a lost opportunity ..." A few months later, the economy imploded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

The only forseeable risk at the moment to the Irish recovery is Syriza and the mess they are making of Greece.

Sure, you could come back here in 12 years and tell me you told me so. Or it could be sooner but realistically for the next two years we are going to see strong growth in Ireland barring a significant external event.

We actually need to start focussing on infrasturcture investment, the Eastern bypass of Dublin, DART underground, the M20, local authority housing and third-level infrastructure.

Rightwing · 19-06-2015 10:29pm

Godge wrote: »

The only forseeable risk at the moment to the Irish recovery is Syriza and the mess they are making of Greece.

Sure, you could come back here in 12 years and tell me you told me so. Or it could be sooner but realistically for the next two years we are going to see strong growth in Ireland barring a significant external event.

We actually need to start focussing on infrasturcture investment, the Eastern bypass of Dublin, DART underground, the M20, local authority housing and third-level infrastructure.

Whatever about the economics & finances of it, you'd make for 1 good politician.

realitykeeper · 19-06-2015 11:40pm

Godge wrote: »

The only forseeable risk at the moment to the Irish recovery is Syriza and the mess they are making of Greece.

... and Isis, and massive waves of refugees, and the systemic risks of QE, and the situation in Ukraine and Russian counter sanctions, and the melting ice sheets of Antarctica, etc, etc, etc.

Godge wrote: »

Sure, you could come back here in 12 years and tell me you told me so. Or it could be sooner but realistically for the next two years we are going to see strong growth in Ireland barring a significant external event.

Yes, this is probably true but the next recession could happen at anytime. I would be surprised if it has not started by the end of 2018. I also think it will feature a currency crisis and it will be much worse than any previous recession. If I were a politician, I would not want to be in government after the next election.

Godge wrote: »

We actually need to start focussing on infrasturcture investment, the Eastern bypass of Dublin, DART underground, the M20, local authority housing and third-level infrastructure.

I think the priority should be on achieving a fiscal surplus, and then splitting the surplus between debt repayments and infrastructure spending. Borrowing to invest is a gamble so it should not be done. Economics 101.

Godge · 20-06-2015 12:29am

greek_yogurt wrote: »

for the population we have here , we have a remarkably small number of cities with populations of over fifty thousand , new Zealand has a similar population and has ten cities with populations over fifty thousand

what we do have in Ireland is an incredibly number of small towns with populations of under ten thousand , baschically , Irelands population is incredibly scattered which means we have a challenge when it comes to changing economic trends ( consolidation of economic activity in large urban centres )

That is why we need to pick a small number of cities, but that is politically difficult.

Rightwing · 20-06-2015 12:46pm

realitykeeper wrote: »

... and Isis, and massive waves of refugees, and the systemic risks of QE, and the situation in Ukraine and Russian counter sanctions, and the melting ice sheets of Antarctica, etc, etc, etc.

Yes, this is probably true but the next recession could happen at anytime. I would be surprised if it has not started by the end of 2018. I also think it will feature a currency crisis and it will be much worse than any previous recession. If I were a politician, I would not want to be in government after the next election.

I think the priority should be on achieving a fiscal surplus, and then splitting the surplus between debt repayments and infrastructure spending. Borrowing to invest is a gamble so it should not be done. Economics 101.

We're a very open economy so there are numerous risks.
For me, the big risk is western debt levels. I can't see bond brices remaining this favourable for too long. Bubbles everywhere, so the financial environment to many looks calm, to others it's anything but.

Silentcorner · 20-06-2015 1:00pm

greek_yogurt wrote: »

galway is flying and cork is doing well and is decent sized , there does need to be a major effort to get investment into limerick however , the place underperforms on every level yet has a hinterland which is far bigger than around galway

You don't know Limerick very well.

The biggest pharmacutical plant in the state is currently being build in Raheen, they cannot build office space in Castletroy fast enough to keep up with demand, new office space is about to be commenced in the city centre (the Hanging Gardens), over 2,000 jobs have been announced in the city over the last few years. Tourism is rising in double digits, hotels are seeing the fastest growth in occupancy and room rates in the country.

The city has the most affordable housing in the country. ( and indeed in a recent survey of over 350 cities world wide)
The city is the most accessable city in the country, nobody has more than a 20 minute commute.
It will have the best infrastructure in the state, the completion of the ring road is about to commence.
It has the best sporting infrastructure outside of Dublin, best stadiums, facilities etc.
It has the most progressive university in the country which is helping draw investment.
Major construction projects are about to commence, new courthouse, two new construction sites in Castletroy to cope with demand for office space, Hanging Gardens as already mentioned, the long awaited Opera Centre (the biggest project outside of Dublin) will commence in the next 12-18 months...and dare I say it, the Horizon Mall, the biggest shopping development outside of Dublin...

There are two more major investment announcements imminent!

Apart from the above I suppose you are right...the city is on its arse!!!

There is a real feeling on the ground that the city is about to start delivering on its potential, the local government infrastructure has changed radically which has been a huge help.

It only has a perception problem....if I had a euro for every one who expressed a negative opinion on Limerick over the years I would be buying houses in Dublin in cash!!!

Rightwing · 20-06-2015 2:16pm

Silentcorner wrote: »

You don't know Limerick very well.

The biggest pharmacutical plant in the state is currently being build in Raheen, they cannot build office space in Castletroy fast enough to keep up with demand, new office space is about to be commenced in the city centre (the Hanging Gardens), over 2,000 jobs have been announced in the city over the last few years. Tourism is rising in double digits, hotels are seeing the fastest growth in occupancy and room rates in the country.

The city has the most affordable housing in the country. ( and indeed in a recent survey of over 350 cities world wide)
The city is the most accessable city in the country, nobody has more than a 20 minute commute.
It will have the best infrastructure in the state, the completion of the ring road is about to commence.
It has the best sporting infrastructure outside of Dublin, best stadiums, facilities etc.
It has the most progressive university in the country which is helping draw investment.
Major construction projects are about to commence, new courthouse, two new construction sites in Castletroy to cope with demand for office space, Hanging Gardens as already mentioned, the long awaited Opera Centre (the biggest project outside of Dublin) will commence in the next 12-18 months...and dare I say it, the Horizon Mall, the biggest shopping development outside of Dublin...

There are two more major investment announcements imminent!

Apart from the above I suppose you are right...the city is on its arse!!!

There is a real feeling on the ground that the city is about to start delivering on its potential, the local government infrastructure has changed radically which has been a huge help.

It only has a perception problem....if I had a euro for every one who expressed a negative opinion on Limerick over the years I would be buying houses in Dublin in cash!!!

Whilst you are correct, the previous poster's intentions are well intended.

Limerick was badly neglected by previous administrations, and some may not be aware of the new developments. It is important for the State to have the Western corridor from Cork to Galway as a strong alternative to the East.

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