Realistic Economy News thread

nice_guy80

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

Jim2007

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

And realistic means what exactly??? Just an opinion....

If realistic means factual, then please provide a stats reference for your assertion.

andrew

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

True. On an equally realistic note, employment levels in Dublin have risen!

ireland.png

west.png

Dublin.png

Saipanne

andrew wrote: »

True. On an equally realistic note, employment levels in Dublin have risen!

ireland.png

west.png

Dublin.png

Shh. Don't add facts to the pointless thread.

Dave!

Godge

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

Given that urbanisation is the main factor driving economic growth across both the developed and developing world, surely this should belong in the good news economic thread?

Unless we shift jobs to the cities and invest in infrastructure in the cities, we will be left behind.

skafish

Godge wrote: »

Given that urbanisation is the main factor driving economic growth across both the developed and developing world, surely this should belong in the good news economic thread?

Unless we shift jobs to the cities and invest in infrastructure in the cities, we will be left behind.

I agree with you regarding urbanisation; however, Dublin is not the only urban area in the country, and the concentration of new jobs in the greater Dublin area is already leading to problems in relation to housing and property prices, water shortages etc. Isn't it time the other urban areas were developed as well?
As an example, the failed decentralisation lunacy of the last (or was it second last) government was actually nota bad idea, until they made a complete balls up of it. Welcome to Parlon country anyone?

Godge

skafish wrote: »

I agree with you regarding urbanisation; however, Dublin is not the only urban area in the country, and the concentration of new jobs in the greater Dublin area is already leading to problems in relation to housing and property prices, water shortages etc. Isn't it time the other urban areas were developed as well?
As an example, the failed decentralisation lunacy of the last (or was it second last) government was actually nota bad idea, until they made a complete balls up of it. Welcome to Parlon country anyone?

We can only support three, four cities at the most. Dublin, Cork, Limerick and one other, probably Galway.

Jim2007

Godge wrote: »

We can only support three, four cities at the most. Dublin, Cork, Limerick and one other, probably Galway.

Really? And why would that be, given that Euroland has plenty of successful cities with small populations.

Phoebas

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I'm going to start a Bad news economic news thread

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

There's a bit of a negativity bias going on here I think.

Godge

Jim2007 wrote: »

Really? And why would that be, given that Euroland has plenty of successful cities with small populations.

Such as? How do you define successful and what size metrics would you use?

Most of our "cities" would only rank as towns in other countries.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland_by_population

I mentioned Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway, the four biggest urban areas. After that comes Waterford with 51,519.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom

The 75th highest in the UK, Worcester, is twice the size of Waterford.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_area_(France)#List_of_France.27s_aires_urbaines_.28metropolitan_areas.29

Nancy, the 20th highest in France is nearly 10 times the size of Waterford.

http://about-france.com/tourism/main-towns-cities.htm

Reading this one, Waterford is about equivalent to Narbonne.

Jim2007

Godge wrote: »

Such as? How do you define successful and what size metrics would you use?

Well for me it would be well run, good services, reasonable taxes and employment opportunities.

Take Aarau in Switzerland for instance: population of 20K or so. The unemployment rate is about 2.3%, effective tax rate is around 17%, Good public transport with connections to all major cities each hour. And of course there are public schools, hospital etc... Manufacture include bells, mathematical instruments, electrical goods, cotton textiles, cutlery, chemicals, shoes, and other products. Aarau is famous for the quality of their instruments, cutlery and their bells.

You spend any time travelling through mainland Europe and you will discover plenty of places like this. The idea that it must be big to survive is typical American economic tosh and is consumed because it is available in English!

Take the town where I live - it has a population of about 12K, there are 9 medium sized employers all family owned. Our effective tax rate is 14.5% and for that we get a local police force, fire & emergency services, hospital, public transport, 8 kindergartens, 4 primary level schools, 3 second level schools, 2 trade schools and of course all the usual service such as refuse collection etc... And during the recession employers did not let people go, because unlike MNCs the had a sense of responsibility towards the community and so other solutions were found - reduced hours, unpaid leave for was offered to people who wanted it and so on.

andrew

Jim2007 wrote: »

Well for me it would be well run, good services, reasonable taxes and employment opportunities.

Take Aarau in Switzerland for instance: population of 20K or so. The unemployment rate is about 2.3%, effective tax rate is around 17%, Good public transport with connections to all major cities each hour. And of course there are public schools, hospital etc... Manufacture include bells, mathematical instruments, electrical goods, cotton textiles, cutlery, chemicals, shoes, and other products. Aarau is famous for the quality of their instruments, cutlery and their bells.

You spend any time travelling through mainland Europe and you will discover plenty of places like this. The idea that it must be big to survive is typical American economic tosh and is consumed because it is available in English!

Take the town where I live - it has a population of about 12K, there are 9 medium sized employers all family owned. Our effective tax rate is 14.5% and for that we get a local police force, fire & emergency services, hospital, public transport, 8 kindergartens, 4 primary level schools, 3 second level schools, 2 trade schools and of course all the usual service such as refuse collection etc... And during the recession employers did not let people go, because unlike MNCs the had a sense of responsibility towards the community and so other solutions were found - reduced hours, unpaid leave for was offered to people who wanted it and so on.

Ireland is very much not mainland Europe, and that makes all the difference.

ardmacha

andrew wrote: »

Ireland is very much not mainland Europe, and that makes all the difference.

It isn't the USA either.
We should be more willing to learn from success stories elsewhere.

Godge

Jim2007 wrote: »

Well for me it would be well run, good services, reasonable taxes and employment opportunities.

Take Aarau in Switzerland for instance: population of 20K or so. The unemployment rate is about 2.3%, effective tax rate is around 17%, Good public transport with connections to all major cities each hour. And of course there are public schools, hospital etc... Manufacture include bells, mathematical instruments, electrical goods, cotton textiles, cutlery, chemicals, shoes, and other products. Aarau is famous for the quality of their instruments, cutlery and their bells.

You spend any time travelling through mainland Europe and you will discover plenty of places like this. The idea that it must be big to survive is typical American economic tosh and is consumed because it is available in English!

Take the town where I live - it has a population of about 12K, there are 9 medium sized employers all family owned. Our effective tax rate is 14.5% and for that we get a local police force, fire & emergency services, hospital, public transport, 8 kindergartens, 4 primary level schools, 3 second level schools, 2 trade schools and of course all the usual service such as refuse collection etc... And during the recession employers did not let people go, because unlike MNCs the had a sense of responsibility towards the community and so other solutions were found - reduced hours, unpaid leave for was offered to people who wanted it and so on.

(1) Switzerland is not Ireland, it is not like any other part of Europe.

(2) On average earnings in Ireland, your effective tax rate is a lot less than 14.5%.

Jim2007

Godge wrote: »

(1) Switzerland is not Ireland, it is not like any other part of Europe.

(2) On average earnings in Ireland, your effective tax rate is a lot less than 14.5%.

So we can compare Ireland to the UK, France, but then we are not either of those either are we!

But the fact is that we are part of the EU and we are part of Euroland and on a course to build a more integrated economic unit with then, which for instance the UK is not! So it does make sense to examine what is going on there and what might be useful to pick up on.

For instance we need a housing policy that does not require everyone to take on massive personal debt in order to put a roof over their head. Our most recent attempt at that nearly bankrupt the country as it did in the US! Some EU countries have done better on that so it might be an idea to consider some alternatives.

And then there is pensions - UK and Irish pension funds for instances gets charged fees regardless of performance, where as many EU funds are required to provide minimum returns before fees are applied and others even require funds managers to provide a minimum return even when the fund under performs - in other words negative fees. Again might be some thing to look into.

On the other hand if you want to continue doing the same old thing and believing there is no other way, then so be it.

realitykeeper

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Going on from the positive economic news thread, I think it's time a realistic economy thread was started to shed a bit of reality about the real economy out there...

First up, actual employment levels in the west of Ireland fell over the last year.
You don't hear that mentioned.

I am not from the west but I absolutely take your point on the need for a reality check when talking about the economy.

The elephant in the room is the national debt. Also, bailing out the banks was a short sighted quick fix which will have devastating long term consequences.

Finally, the bond buying frenzy with ECB money is just another monitory manipulation which will not solve the problems which Ireland and other overly indebted European countries will face in the future.

ezra_pound

realitykeeper wrote: »

I am not from the west but I absolutely take your point on the need for a reality check when talking about the economy.

The elephant in the room is the national debt. Also, bailing out the banks was a short sighted quick fix which will have devastating long term consequences.

Finally, the bond buying frenzy with ECB money is just another monitory manipulation which will not solve the problems which Ireland and other overly indebted European countries will face in the future.

Monitory manipulation. Lol

KingBrian2

Ireland is Ireland, we are unique and mostly European in outlook.

realitykeeper

Phoebas wrote: »

There's a bit of a negativity bias going on here I think.

Really? I would have thought most comments were designed to ridicule the thread for daring to inject an element of reality in place of the usual "talking up the economy."

Perhaps a bad news thread would go some small way toward correcting that imbalance.

Godge

realitykeeper wrote: »

Really? I would have thought most comments were designed to ridicule the thread for daring to inject an element of reality in place of the usual "talking up the economy."

Perhaps a bad news thread would go some small way toward correcting that imbalance.

Actually, thinking about it, we probably do need a thread for those who are constantly moaning and whinging as the economy improves, jobs are created and wages and profits rise. If they stay in here, the rest of us can get on with keeping up with reality.

ezra_pound

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028842.shtml

realitykeeper

Godge wrote: »

Actually, thinking about it, we probably do need a thread for those who are constantly moaning and whinging ...

This is reminiscent of Bertie Ahern`s infamous "suicide" rant. I believe the words he used were "cribbing and moaning are a lost opportunity ..." A few months later, the economy imploded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

Saipanne

realitykeeper wrote: »

This is reminiscent of Bertie Ahern`s infamous "suicide" rant. I believe the words he used were "cribbing and moaning are a lost opportunity ..." A few months later, the economy imploded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

That's the problem facing the economically literate. If it's boom time and they say a crash is coming (it's called a cycle for a reason), they are called "doom & gloom merchants". But when the crash comes they're blamed for "not seeing it coming".

Godge

realitykeeper wrote: »

This is reminiscent of Bertie Ahern`s infamous "suicide" rant. I believe the words he used were "cribbing and moaning are a lost opportunity ..." A few months later, the economy imploded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA

The only forseeable risk at the moment to the Irish recovery is Syriza and the mess they are making of Greece.

Sure, you could come back here in 12 years and tell me you told me so. Or it could be sooner but realistically for the next two years we are going to see strong growth in Ireland barring a significant external event.

We actually need to start focussing on infrasturcture investment, the Eastern bypass of Dublin, DART underground, the M20, local authority housing and third-level infrastructure.

Rightwing

Godge wrote: »

The only forseeable risk at the moment to the Irish recovery is Syriza and the mess they are making of Greece.

Sure, you could come back here in 12 years and tell me you told me so. Or it could be sooner but realistically for the next two years we are going to see strong growth in Ireland barring a significant external event.

We actually need to start focussing on infrasturcture investment, the Eastern bypass of Dublin, DART underground, the M20, local authority housing and third-level infrastructure.

Whatever about the economics & finances of it, you'd make for 1 good politician.

realitykeeper

Godge wrote: »

The only forseeable risk at the moment to the Irish recovery is Syriza and the mess they are making of Greece.

... and Isis, and massive waves of refugees, and the systemic risks of QE, and the situation in Ukraine and Russian counter sanctions, and the melting ice sheets of Antarctica, etc, etc, etc.

Godge wrote: »

Sure, you could come back here in 12 years and tell me you told me so. Or it could be sooner but realistically for the next two years we are going to see strong growth in Ireland barring a significant external event.

Yes, this is probably true but the next recession could happen at anytime. I would be surprised if it has not started by the end of 2018. I also think it will feature a currency crisis and it will be much worse than any previous recession. If I were a politician, I would not want to be in government after the next election.

Godge wrote: »

We actually need to start focussing on infrasturcture investment, the Eastern bypass of Dublin, DART underground, the M20, local authority housing and third-level infrastructure.

I think the priority should be on achieving a fiscal surplus, and then splitting the surplus between debt repayments and infrastructure spending. Borrowing to invest is a gamble so it should not be done. Economics 101.

Godge

greek_yogurt wrote: »

for the population we have here , we have a remarkably small number of cities with populations of over fifty thousand , new Zealand has a similar population and has ten cities with populations over fifty thousand

what we do have in Ireland is an incredibly number of small towns with populations of under ten thousand , baschically , Irelands population is incredibly scattered which means we have a challenge when it comes to changing economic trends ( consolidation of economic activity in large urban centres )

That is why we need to pick a small number of cities, but that is politically difficult.

Rightwing

realitykeeper wrote: »

... and Isis, and massive waves of refugees, and the systemic risks of QE, and the situation in Ukraine and Russian counter sanctions, and the melting ice sheets of Antarctica, etc, etc, etc.



Yes, this is probably true but the next recession could happen at anytime. I would be surprised if it has not started by the end of 2018. I also think it will feature a currency crisis and it will be much worse than any previous recession. If I were a politician, I would not want to be in government after the next election.


I think the priority should be on achieving a fiscal surplus, and then splitting the surplus between debt repayments and infrastructure spending. Borrowing to invest is a gamble so it should not be done. Economics 101.

We're a very open economy so there are numerous risks.
For me, the big risk is western debt levels. I can't see bond brices remaining this favourable for too long. Bubbles everywhere, so the financial environment to many looks calm, to others it's anything but.

Silentcorner

greek_yogurt wrote: »

galway is flying and cork is doing well and is decent sized , there does need to be a major effort to get investment into limerick however , the place underperforms on every level yet has a hinterland which is far bigger than around galway

You don't know Limerick very well.

The biggest pharmacutical plant in the state is currently being build in Raheen, they cannot build office space in Castletroy fast enough to keep up with demand, new office space is about to be commenced in the city centre (the Hanging Gardens), over 2,000 jobs have been announced in the city over the last few years. Tourism is rising in double digits, hotels are seeing the fastest growth in occupancy and room rates in the country.

The city has the most affordable housing in the country. ( and indeed in a recent survey of over 350 cities world wide)
The city is the most accessable city in the country, nobody has more than a 20 minute commute.
It will have the best infrastructure in the state, the completion of the ring road is about to commence.
It has the best sporting infrastructure outside of Dublin, best stadiums, facilities etc.
It has the most progressive university in the country which is helping draw investment.
Major construction projects are about to commence, new courthouse, two new construction sites in Castletroy to cope with demand for office space, Hanging Gardens as already mentioned, the long awaited Opera Centre (the biggest project outside of Dublin) will commence in the next 12-18 months...and dare I say it, the Horizon Mall, the biggest shopping development outside of Dublin...

There are two more major investment announcements imminent!

Apart from the above I suppose you are right...the city is on its arse!!!

There is a real feeling on the ground that the city is about to start delivering on its potential, the local government infrastructure has changed radically which has been a huge help.

It only has a perception problem....if I had a euro for every one who expressed a negative opinion on Limerick over the years I would be buying houses in Dublin in cash!!!

Rightwing

Silentcorner wrote: »

You don't know Limerick very well.

The biggest pharmacutical plant in the state is currently being build in Raheen, they cannot build office space in Castletroy fast enough to keep up with demand, new office space is about to be commenced in the city centre (the Hanging Gardens), over 2,000 jobs have been announced in the city over the last few years. Tourism is rising in double digits, hotels are seeing the fastest growth in occupancy and room rates in the country.

The city has the most affordable housing in the country. ( and indeed in a recent survey of over 350 cities world wide)
The city is the most accessable city in the country, nobody has more than a 20 minute commute.
It will have the best infrastructure in the state, the completion of the ring road is about to commence.
It has the best sporting infrastructure outside of Dublin, best stadiums, facilities etc.
It has the most progressive university in the country which is helping draw investment.
Major construction projects are about to commence, new courthouse, two new construction sites in Castletroy to cope with demand for office space, Hanging Gardens as already mentioned, the long awaited Opera Centre (the biggest project outside of Dublin) will commence in the next 12-18 months...and dare I say it, the Horizon Mall, the biggest shopping development outside of Dublin...

There are two more major investment announcements imminent!

Apart from the above I suppose you are right...the city is on its arse!!!

There is a real feeling on the ground that the city is about to start delivering on its potential, the local government infrastructure has changed radically which has been a huge help.

It only has a perception problem....if I had a euro for every one who expressed a negative opinion on Limerick over the years I would be buying houses in Dublin in cash!!!

Whilst you are correct, the previous poster's intentions are well intended.

Limerick was badly neglected by previous administrations, and some may not be aware of the new developments. It is important for the State to have the Western corridor from Cork to Galway as a strong alternative to the East.

Villa05

Silentcorner wrote:

It only has a perception problem....if I had a euro for every one who expressed a negative opinion on Limerick over the years I would be buying houses in Dublin in cash!!!

That perception problem means Limerick has the lowest house prices. It is also one of only 3 regions with average wages above the national average.

Sometimes problems have very nice benefits

Rightwing

greek_yogurt wrote: »

its reputation is no surprise , ive yet to meet an estate agent in limerick who had anything good to say about the place , limerick is the opposite of galway in every way

galway is smug

galway bigs itself up all the time

galway outperforms on every level despite having a miniscule population living outside the city itself ( it is heavily reliant on students , tourists and a few multinationals )

limerick has north Kerry , clare , Tipperary , on its doorstep yet no one seems to ever visit the city

galway has nice scenery but no one lives in any direction you travel once you leave the city

I didn't realise north kerry (about 50 miles from Limerick - you must have a big doorstep) was overly populous, nor Tipperary for that matter. :rolleyes:

Silentcorner

greek_yogurt wrote: »

im in the process of investing in limerick myself , its insanely cheap ( 40% cheaper than galway for a house , apartment or retail unit )

its insanely cheap because its economy has been so poor for so long , it is recovering but should have begun recovering at least two years ago , its not a tiny town in the north west , it has few excuses to have struggled for so long

It is the nature of small cities to take knocks every 20/30 years. Cork got it in the 80s, Waterford is currently coming out of some knocks, everyone seems to forget that Galway was lagging behind the 4 other cities only a few years ago which is why it was included in the BMW regions for increased government support and investment.

Limerick biggest problem has been the complete farce that was the local government infrastructure on top of which Shannon Development operated...that has been realigned (not completely) recently and the results speak for itself, but do not kid yourself, Limerick people have been enjoying a good standard of living for a long long time, about 25-30% of the city own some kind of holiday residence along the west coast of Clare/Kerry...the population of the urban area has grown over the last 15 years, it's problems have been over amplified in National media for decades creating the illusion it is some kind of problem city beyond saviour!!

It is in fact, when you consider the housing prices v average disposable income, the commuting times, the access to sport and culture, the standard of our schools/colleges/university, a city that is performing much better than most people realise...it took an awful knock between 2008-2010, but never underestimate the resilience of the city.

The metrics Limerick has been measured by here to fore are completely skewed, it is often reported that the city has the highest percentage of social housing (40%), what they never say that the more affluent suburbs of the city which extend well into Co Clare/Co Limerick are excluded from that figure.

If you think that house prices are a solid indication of wealth you are misguided, I remember a time when houses in Kilkee Co Clare (population 3,000) were higher than house prices in Ennis (population 25,000), not because Kilkee offered more opportunity than Ennis or a higher standard of living, it was purely because Kilkee was a holiday town....you pay a premium to live in a tourist town/city...

Silentcorner

greek_yogurt wrote: »

its reputation is no surprise , ive yet to meet an estate agent in limerick who had anything good to say about the place , limerick is the opposite of galway in every way

galway is smug

galway bigs itself up all the time

galway outperforms on every level despite having a miniscule population living outside the city itself ( it is heavily reliant on students , tourists and a few multinationals )

limerick has north Kerry , clare , Tipperary , on its doorstep yet no one seems to ever visit the city

galway has nice scenery but no one lives in any direction you travel once you leave the city

Limerick is urban, and Irish urban people have a tendency to complain about everything...its actually funny once you realise it is harmless most of the time...

Galway is rural/parochial, it is the parochial nature to big up the parish as it were, sweep problems under the carpet...the city has chronic traffic problems, an indicator of poor local planning, it will hamper the economic recovery of the city, it also has a policing issue, attracting a huge amount of binge drinkers every week is creating a serious policing issue that no one ever talks about...

300 people lost their jobs in Galway last year ( http://connachttribune.ie/galway-jobs-blow-300-gone-software-firm/) and it wasnt mentioned once on National media, there would be consternation if the media ignored a similar disaster in Limerick

KingBrian2

How are the Sinn Fein councillors doing down the country since came to control councils in the local elections, notice any difference or improvements from the previous holders?

Rightwing

KingBrian2 wrote: »

How are the Sinn Fein councillors doing down the country since came to control councils in the local elections, notice any difference or improvements from the previous holders?

No difference I'd say - councils are just 1 of the greatest drains on the economy regardless of who controls them.

KingBrian2

Rightwing wrote: »

No difference I'd say - councils are just 1 of the greatest drains on the economy regardless of who controls them.

Honest opinion Rightwing what would your attitude to local authority be, I would just be interested to know. Do you feel this country has too many local bodies and more decisions should be outside the hand of councillors?

nice_guy80

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Honest opinion Rightwing what would your attitude to local authority be, I would just be interested to know. Do you feel this country has too many local bodies and more decisions should be outside the hand of councillors?

way too many local councils and councillors

they have too little say in how money is spent or projects undertaken.

and then try to claim credit for the tiny amount of scraps they are fed by the council management - roads, planning etc

Geuze

nice_guy80 wrote: »

way too many local councils and councillors

they have too little say in how money is spent or projects undertaken.

and then try to claim credit for the tiny amount of scraps they are fed by the council management - roads, planning etc

You'll be happy to hear that the number of councils dropped from 114 to 31 last year.

80 town councils were abolished.

The no. of county/city councils was cut from 34 to 31.

Hundreds of councillor roles were abolished.

Rightwing

KingBrian2 wrote: »

Honest opinion Rightwing what would your attitude to local authority be, I would just be interested to know. Do you feel this country has too many local bodies and more decisions should be outside the hand of councillors?

They spend money just for the sake it, mostly on junkets/wages/perks.

All we need do is to look at the state of our water infrastructure after years of neglect from the councils.

realitykeeper

In recent days, Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan have made certain comments about Greece which seem to be rather disrespectful. Comments to the effect that Greece should try to be more like Ireland and Greece should not have any more of its debt written off. While I do not disagree with the latter statement, I think Ireland could find itself in a similar situation to Greece (or much worse) in the future. When that happens, lets hope Kenny and Noonan will not turn hypocrite and beg for debt forgiveness.

As for being more like Ireland, I think this comes from the cringe-worthy "best boys in the class" analogy. The truth of course is not that Greece should be more like Ireland but rather that Ireland should be more like Iceland.

Sand

realitykeeper wrote: »

As for being more like Ireland, I think this comes from the cringe-worthy "best boys in the class" analogy. The truth of course is not that Greece should be more like Ireland but rather that Ireland should be more like Iceland.

Well, we're talking about Enda Kenny. A man whose response to having another EU leader ruffle up his hair in front of the cameras at an EU summit was to giggle like a schoolgirl.

Rightwing

realitykeeper wrote: »

In recent days, Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan have made certain comments about Greece which seem to be rather disrespectful. Comments to the effect that Greece should try to be more like Ireland and Greece should not have any more of its debt written off. While I do not disagree with the latter statement, I think Ireland could find itself in a similar situation to Greece (or much worse) in the future. When that happens, lets hope Kenny and Noonan will not turn hypocrite and beg for debt forgiveness.

As for being more like Ireland, I think this comes from the cringe-worthy "best boys in the class" analogy. The truth of course is not that Greece should be more like Ireland but rather that Ireland should be more like Iceland.

I'm not sure about this. I've been surprised at how tough a stance the creditors have taken with Greece. Seems to me now that Ireland simply had no choice but to comply with their demands. Importantly, I think the Europeans are underestimating the effects a Grexit will have on the markets.

Rightwing

Rightwing wrote: »

I think the Europeans are underestimating the effects a Grexit will have on the markets.

In what way will it affect the markets?

Eurozone bond prices, European equities and the euro have barely budged in response to the recent political uncertainty. Nobody is exposed to Greece anymore. It's too small to matter to the markets anymore.

Sand wrote: »

Well, we're talking about Enda Kenny. A man whose response to having another EU leader ruffle up his hair in front of the cameras at an EU summit was to giggle like a schoolgirl.

What ought he have done?

Rip off his testosterone-drenched shirt, beat his ginger-hairy chest, and challenge M. Sarkozy to a bout under the Queensbury Rules?

I don't see the harm in it. This isn't Putin's Russia. Glorification of the masculinity of The Leader is hardly a serious priority.

Rightwing

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

In what way will it affect the markets?

Eurozone bond prices, European equities and the euro have barely budged in response to the recent political uncertainty. Nobody is exposed to Greece anymore. It's too small to matter to the markets anymore.

What ought he have done?

Rip off his testosterone-drenched shirt, beat his ginger-hairy chest, and challenge M. Sarkozy to a bout under the Queensbury Rules?

I don't see the harm in it. This isn't Putin's Russia. Glorification of the masculinity of The Leader is hardly a serious priority.

This week will reveal all. Up until now, a deal has been priced in, so expect big volatility, particularly on the equity markets. Longer term, it has political consequences and a precedent has been set.

Rightwing

These derivatives are the worry:

UNITED States of America – It can now be reported that the Greek euro denominated debt has escalated to $360 billion. This now represents as much as $25 TRILLION of worthless cross-collateralized derivatives, which are outstanding with now the Bank of England and the Bank of New York Mellon as counter parties.
They have joined Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank of New York, German Deutsche Bank, Société Générale of France and Barclays Bank of England as catching full scale contagion disease.
Without a Greek deal all of these aforementioned banks collapse leading to capital controls and the possibility of worldwide bank runs.
At this hour it is all about the repo rate, the lack of liquidity in the system leading to a derivative debacle

nice_guy80

Time to put money into gold?

Rightwing

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Time to put money into gold?

Not intended as investment advice, but if you are that way inclined, silver is trading at a nice discount to gold on a historical basis.

Sand

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

What ought he have done?

Rip off his testosterone-drenched shirt, beat his ginger-hairy chest, and challenge M. Sarkozy to a bout under the Queensbury Rules?

I don't see the harm in it. This isn't Putin's Russia. Glorification of the masculinity of The Leader is hardly a serious priority.

Putin is at one extreme of laughable behaviour, Kenny getting his hair roughed up at the other.

Kenny and Sarkozy were both elected representatives of their nations. Most politicians in those scenarios manage to get by without having their dignity trampled like that. It should never even get to the stage where Kenny (Ireland's elected leader, god help us) is humiliated in front of the cameras like that and has no good options.

That interaction between Kenny and Sarkozy was just a highlight of the deferential, submissive attitude of the Irish government to the EU over the past 7 or 8 years. I don't even blame Sarkozy as such: Kenny is so deferential that Sarkozy knew he could get away with it, and he was right.

Sand

Sand wrote: »

Most politicians in those scenarios manage to get by without having their dignity trampled like that. It should never even get to the stage where Kenny (Ireland's elected leader, god help us) is humiliated in front of the cameras like that and has no good options.

I'm sorry but this really is decidedly Putinesque.

I rather consider the "trampling" of politicians' dignity a linchpin of democracy.
Macbeth would never have succumbed to the prophecies of the three wayward sisters if there had existed any plain-talking faultfinders to have a go at him, and burst his ego.
If Charlie Hebdo had been around in the 18th century, the King of France and his fat Canons wouldn't have been half as uppity; they might have lost their hard necks, and kept their heads intact.

The capacity to trample and lampoon the dignity of the figurehead is a wellspring of popular power. Anytime 18 or 28 old farts sit down for dinner and have a crack at ordering the lives of 500 million people, they should feel the jaws of the media, the People's burdizzo, on their balls. If Sarkozy contribues to the takedown, well what about it?

It is vital that this happens. I still don't know what you wanted The Leader to do about it when it did.