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Realistic Economy News thread

1246710

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Central bank warns against more tax cuts. Says additional tax revenues should be instead be used to pay down debt:



    Will they be heeded? With an election coming up, I seriously doubt it.

    Very hard to central banks seriously these days.

    Why not cut government expenditure instead and axe a few civil serveants as an alternative?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I see - speaking realistically - that Government debt as a percentage of GDP has now fallen from 124% in 2013 to 105% now.

    Ah Jaysus, I remember the economic illiterati telling us (many of them posting in this very forum) how we should ditch the EU, the Troika and the euro and "repudiate the debt".

    Just as well they weren't the ones making the big decisions, eh?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    I don't like the debt : gdp ratio, particularly when it is used as a sole reference. It is not a misleading ratio when used as a snapshot of a moment in time. However, when/if a recession comes, it quickly becomes evident how only a fool would truly rely on it.

    As an example, many Greeks may have thought things were fine in '08 because their debt:gdp was 105%.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    Rightwing wrote: »
    Very hard to central banks seriously these days.

    Why not cut government expenditure instead and axe a few civil serveants as an alternative?

    put some tax on corporations
    handy money there


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    Rightwing wrote: »
    I don't like the debt : gdp ratio, particularly when it is used as a sole reference. It is not a misleading ratio when used as a snapshot of a moment in time. However, when/if a recession comes, it quickly becomes evident how only a fool would truly rely on it.

    As an example, many Greeks may have thought things were fine in '08 because their debt:gdp was 105%.

    we're going be a long time paying for the german and french banks and hedge funds selling cheap money into the Irish economy, and then getting all their money back


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,882 ✭✭✭Saipanne


    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    put some tax on corporations
    handy money there

    What if they leave and/or FDI decreases?


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,309 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Rightwing wrote: »
    I don't like the debt : gdp ratio, particularly when it is used as a sole reference. It is not a misleading ratio when used as a snapshot of a moment in time. However, when/if a recession comes, it quickly becomes evident how only a fool would truly rely on it.

    As an example, many Greeks may have thought things were fine in '08 because their debt:gdp was 105%.

    Sure we thought ours was fine at 35% or whatever!

    Seriously we have a different attitude to Government debt since the 80's, through hard earned experience.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    K-9 wrote: »
    Sure we thought ours was fine at 35% or whatever!

    Seriously we have a different attitude to Government debt since the 80's, through hard earned experience.

    True.

    We were also lucky that our debt was relatively low when the crisis began. So for this reason alone I do agree with those that call for restraint particularly in government expenditure & also tax cuts. Create a bit of leeway so to speak.


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,309 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Some would argue it was a pity it was so low as through necessity things like bondholders and NAMA would have been economic and political non runners.

    Still though, it has become an accepted norm to reduce the debt percentage as much as possible.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Rightwing wrote: »
    However, when/if a recession comes, it quickly becomes evident how only a fool would truly rely on it.

    That was certainly true when all the panic merchants were screaming in terror arguing that Ireland shouldn't pay its debts.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Rightwing wrote:
    So for this reason alone I do agree with those that call for restraint particularly in government expenditure & also tax cuts. Create a bit of leeway so to speak.

    The water charge protests have done the country a big favour in this respect.

    Currently the costs of irish water remain on the states books. This makes it more difficult to buy votes in the next budget.

    A win win, who would have thought


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Villa05 wrote: »
    The water charge protests have done the country a big favour in this respect.

    Currently the costs of irish water remain on the states books. This makes it more difficult to buy votes in the next budget.

    A win win, who would have thought

    Agreed, also I feel the Government would just blow the water tax money. And you'd wonder how many more of these taxes are left for them to bring in.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    That was certainly true when all the panic merchants were screaming in terror arguing that Ireland shouldn't pay its debts.

    But pay the debts to whom, subordinated debt, bondholders or sovereign debt? Certainly the latter 2 had to be paid.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Rightwing wrote: »
    But pay the debts to whom, subordinated debt, bondholders or sovereign debt? Certainly the latter 2 had to be paid.

    I'm talking about those who said we should go the Argentina route and not pay any of it - because debt, like, y'know.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I'm talking about those who said we should go the Argentina route and not pay any of it - because debt, like, y'know.


    Who said that? Sharing of the bank debt was what the vast majority campaigned for, which is a perfectly reasonable request supported by the IMF and UK


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Who said that? Sharing of the bank debt was what the vast majority campaigned for, which is a perfectly reasonable request supported by the IMF and UK

    Loads of people. There was quite an amount of pantwetting to be found in posts in and around 2010-2011.

    People don't really get debt and sovereign states. You can't just start with your own overdraft and then "go big from there" to analyse that stuff properly, but unfortunately that's what a lot of people tried to do. They've gone quiet since - quelle surprise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,468 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Loads of people. There was quite an amount of pantwetting to be found in posts in and around 2010-2011.

    People don't really get debt and sovereign states. You can't just start with your own overdraft and then "go big from there" to analyse that stuff properly, but unfortunately that's what a lot of people tried to do. They've gone quiet since - quelle surprise.

    Yeah, and people said bondholders couldn't be burnt, that nobody could leave the Euro, that the ECB couldn't print money, that Ireland would receive retro-active capitalisation the banks back in 2012, and that the passing of the fiscal compact was a precondition for German fiscal transfers to the periphery with one following the other.

    They've all gone quiet too.

    One prediction that has held true is that the Green Jersey Brigade will learn absolutely nothing from the past decade and Ireland will emerge with absolutely no improvements in governance. That's still holding rock solid.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    Sand wrote: »
    Yeah, and people said bondholders couldn't be burnt, that nobody could leave the Euro, that the ECB couldn't print money, that Ireland would receive retro-active capitalisation the banks back in 2012, and that the passing of the fiscal compact was a precondition for German fiscal transfers to the periphery with one following the other.

    They've all gone quiet too.

    One prediction that has held true is that the Green Jersey Brigade will learn absolutely nothing from the past decade and Ireland will emerge with absolutely no improvements in governance. That's still holding rock solid.

    They also said no banker would be jailed.:D Don't believe everything you hear.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Loads of people. There was quite an amount of pantwetting to be found in posts in and around 2010-2011.

    Im afraid the pantwetting was done by our negotiaters. How else could you have a situation where private bank debt is placed on childrens shoulders for generations to come who had nothing to do with it.

    We should be ashamed of ourselves not gloating for letting this happen without an ounce of a fight


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Im afraid the pantwetting was done by our negotiaters. How else could you have a situation where private bank debt is placed on childrens shoulders for generations to come who had nothing to do with it.

    We should be ashamed of ourselves not gloating for letting this happen without an ounce of a fight

    The vast majority of our debt stems from poor governance, high welfare rates, bloated and overpaid PS, quangos like IW.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 28,765 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    id highly recommend checking out the work of american economists ellen brown in my signature. very interesting stuff. be interested in hearing peoples opinions on it


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Rightwing wrote:
    The vast majority of our debt stems from poor governance, high welfare rates, bloated and overpaid PS, quangos like IW.

    Agreed, which we should pay back as we voted for them.
    Interbank loans and other private debt liabilities are an entirely separate issue


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,882 ✭✭✭Saipanne


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    id highly recommend checking out the work of american economists ellen brown in my signature. very interesting stuff. be interested in hearing peoples opinions on it

    No.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28,765 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Saipanne wrote: »
    No.

    fair enough. as you are


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Sand wrote: »
    Yeah, and people said bondholders couldn't be burnt, that nobody could leave the Euro, that the ECB couldn't print money, that Ireland would receive retro-active capitalisation the banks back in 2012, and that the passing of the fiscal compact was a precondition for German fiscal transfers to the periphery with one following the other.

    They've all gone quiet too.

    One prediction that has held true is that the Green Jersey Brigade will learn absolutely nothing from the past decade and Ireland will emerge with absolutely no improvements in governance. That's still holding rock solid.

    Villa05 wrote: »
    Im afraid the pantwetting was done by our negotiaters. How else could you have a situation where private bank debt is placed on childrens shoulders for generations to come who had nothing to do with it.

    We should be ashamed of ourselves not gloating for letting this happen without an ounce of a fight

    It worked.

    It's always right when it works.

    The loolahs of the political extremes were wrong, and thankfully the Irish government didn't listen.


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,309 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Mod:

    The quality of the last few posts are a bit more suited to the politics cafe tbh, no disrespect to the cafe but we expect a bit more here.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭Villa05


    It worked.

    It's always right when it works.

    The loolahs of the political extremes were wrong, and thankfully the Irish government didn't listen.

    Are the IMF "loolahs" of the political extreme when it comes to complex debt resolution?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Are the IMF "loolahs" of the political extreme when it comes to complex debt resolution?

    The IMF have never advocated that sovereign states should welsh on their debts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,482 ✭✭✭Villa05


    You are more intelligent than that. Debate the points made rather than deflecting to a completely different point


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,029 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Rightwing wrote: »
    The vast majority of our debt stems from poor governance, high welfare rates, bloated and overpaid PS, quangos like IW.


    The banking crisis cost the State 63-64bn gross, at a time when gross public debt was 200bn approx.

    I would call 32% of our public debt significant.

    The banking crisis was, and is, and will be, a significant cost on the general public.


This discussion has been closed.
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