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Realistic Economy News thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 4,488 ✭✭✭Villa05


    It only has a perception problem....if I had a euro for every one who expressed a negative opinion on Limerick over the years I would be buying houses in Dublin in cash!!!


    That perception problem means Limerick has the lowest house prices. It is also one of only 3 regions with average wages above the national average.

    Sometimes problems have very nice benefits


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    its reputation is no surprise , ive yet to meet an estate agent in limerick who had anything good to say about the place , limerick is the opposite of galway in every way

    galway is smug

    galway bigs itself up all the time

    galway outperforms on every level despite having a miniscule population living outside the city itself ( it is heavily reliant on students , tourists and a few multinationals )

    limerick has north Kerry , clare , Tipperary , on its doorstep yet no one seems to ever visit the city

    galway has nice scenery but no one lives in any direction you travel once you leave the city

    I didn't realise north kerry (about 50 miles from Limerick - you must have a big doorstep) was overly populous, nor Tipperary for that matter. :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    im in the process of investing in limerick myself , its insanely cheap ( 40% cheaper than galway for a house , apartment or retail unit )

    its insanely cheap because its economy has been so poor for so long , it is recovering but should have begun recovering at least two years ago , its not a tiny town in the north west , it has few excuses to have struggled for so long

    It is the nature of small cities to take knocks every 20/30 years. Cork got it in the 80s, Waterford is currently coming out of some knocks, everyone seems to forget that Galway was lagging behind the 4 other cities only a few years ago which is why it was included in the BMW regions for increased government support and investment.

    Limerick biggest problem has been the complete farce that was the local government infrastructure on top of which Shannon Development operated...that has been realigned (not completely) recently and the results speak for itself, but do not kid yourself, Limerick people have been enjoying a good standard of living for a long long time, about 25-30% of the city own some kind of holiday residence along the west coast of Clare/Kerry...the population of the urban area has grown over the last 15 years, it's problems have been over amplified in National media for decades creating the illusion it is some kind of problem city beyond saviour!!

    It is in fact, when you consider the housing prices v average disposable income, the commuting times, the access to sport and culture, the standard of our schools/colleges/university, a city that is performing much better than most people realise...it took an awful knock between 2008-2010, but never underestimate the resilience of the city.

    The metrics Limerick has been measured by here to fore are completely skewed, it is often reported that the city has the highest percentage of social housing (40%), what they never say that the more affluent suburbs of the city which extend well into Co Clare/Co Limerick are excluded from that figure.

    If you think that house prices are a solid indication of wealth you are misguided, I remember a time when houses in Kilkee Co Clare (population 3,000) were higher than house prices in Ennis (population 25,000), not because Kilkee offered more opportunity than Ennis or a higher standard of living, it was purely because Kilkee was a holiday town....you pay a premium to live in a tourist town/city...


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,162 ✭✭✭Silentcorner


    its reputation is no surprise , ive yet to meet an estate agent in limerick who had anything good to say about the place , limerick is the opposite of galway in every way

    galway is smug

    galway bigs itself up all the time

    galway outperforms on every level despite having a miniscule population living outside the city itself ( it is heavily reliant on students , tourists and a few multinationals )

    limerick has north Kerry , clare , Tipperary , on its doorstep yet no one seems to ever visit the city

    galway has nice scenery but no one lives in any direction you travel once you leave the city


    Limerick is urban, and Irish urban people have a tendency to complain about everything...its actually funny once you realise it is harmless most of the time...

    Galway is rural/parochial, it is the parochial nature to big up the parish as it were, sweep problems under the carpet...the city has chronic traffic problems, an indicator of poor local planning, it will hamper the economic recovery of the city, it also has a policing issue, attracting a huge amount of binge drinkers every week is creating a serious policing issue that no one ever talks about...

    300 people lost their jobs in Galway last year ( http://connachttribune.ie/galway-jobs-blow-300-gone-software-firm/) and it wasnt mentioned once on National media, there would be consternation if the media ignored a similar disaster in Limerick


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    How are the Sinn Fein councillors doing down the country since came to control councils in the local elections, notice any difference or improvements from the previous holders?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    KingBrian2 wrote: »
    How are the Sinn Fein councillors doing down the country since came to control councils in the local elections, notice any difference or improvements from the previous holders?

    No difference I'd say - councils are just 1 of the greatest drains on the economy regardless of who controls them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    Rightwing wrote: »
    No difference I'd say - councils are just 1 of the greatest drains on the economy regardless of who controls them.

    Honest opinion Rightwing what would your attitude to local authority be, I would just be interested to know. Do you feel this country has too many local bodies and more decisions should be outside the hand of councillors?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    KingBrian2 wrote: »
    Honest opinion Rightwing what would your attitude to local authority be, I would just be interested to know. Do you feel this country has too many local bodies and more decisions should be outside the hand of councillors?

    way too many local councils and councillors

    they have too little say in how money is spent or projects undertaken.

    and then try to claim credit for the tiny amount of scraps they are fed by the council management - roads, planning etc


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,065 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    way too many local councils and councillors

    they have too little say in how money is spent or projects undertaken.

    and then try to claim credit for the tiny amount of scraps they are fed by the council management - roads, planning etc


    You'll be happy to hear that the number of councils dropped from 114 to 31 last year.

    80 town councils were abolished.

    The no. of county/city councils was cut from 34 to 31.

    Hundreds of councillor roles were abolished.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    KingBrian2 wrote: »
    Honest opinion Rightwing what would your attitude to local authority be, I would just be interested to know. Do you feel this country has too many local bodies and more decisions should be outside the hand of councillors?

    They spend money just for the sake it, mostly on junkets/wages/perks.

    All we need do is to look at the state of our water infrastructure after years of neglect from the councils.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    In recent days, Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan have made certain comments about Greece which seem to be rather disrespectful. Comments to the effect that Greece should try to be more like Ireland and Greece should not have any more of its debt written off. While I do not disagree with the latter statement, I think Ireland could find itself in a similar situation to Greece (or much worse) in the future. When that happens, lets hope Kenny and Noonan will not turn hypocrite and beg for debt forgiveness.

    As for being more like Ireland, I think this comes from the cringe-worthy "best boys in the class" analogy. The truth of course is not that Greece should be more like Ireland but rather that Ireland should be more like Iceland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,471 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    As for being more like Ireland, I think this comes from the cringe-worthy "best boys in the class" analogy. The truth of course is not that Greece should be more like Ireland but rather that Ireland should be more like Iceland.

    Well, we're talking about Enda Kenny. A man whose response to having another EU leader ruffle up his hair in front of the cameras at an EU summit was to giggle like a schoolgirl.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    In recent days, Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan have made certain comments about Greece which seem to be rather disrespectful. Comments to the effect that Greece should try to be more like Ireland and Greece should not have any more of its debt written off. While I do not disagree with the latter statement, I think Ireland could find itself in a similar situation to Greece (or much worse) in the future. When that happens, lets hope Kenny and Noonan will not turn hypocrite and beg for debt forgiveness.

    As for being more like Ireland, I think this comes from the cringe-worthy "best boys in the class" analogy. The truth of course is not that Greece should be more like Ireland but rather that Ireland should be more like Iceland.

    I'm not sure about this. I've been surprised at how tough a stance the creditors have taken with Greece. Seems to me now that Ireland simply had no choice but to comply with their demands. Importantly, I think the Europeans are underestimating the effects a Grexit will have on the markets.


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rightwing wrote: »
    I think the Europeans are underestimating the effects a Grexit will have on the markets.
    In what way will it affect the markets?

    Eurozone bond prices, European equities and the euro have barely budged in response to the recent political uncertainty. Nobody is exposed to Greece anymore. It's too small to matter to the markets anymore.
    Sand wrote: »
    Well, we're talking about Enda Kenny. A man whose response to having another EU leader ruffle up his hair in front of the cameras at an EU summit was to giggle like a schoolgirl.
    What ought he have done?

    Rip off his testosterone-drenched shirt, beat his ginger-hairy chest, and challenge M. Sarkozy to a bout under the Queensbury Rules?

    I don't see the harm in it. This isn't Putin's Russia. Glorification of the masculinity of The Leader is hardly a serious priority.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    In what way will it affect the markets?

    Eurozone bond prices, European equities and the euro have barely budged in response to the recent political uncertainty. Nobody is exposed to Greece anymore. It's too small to matter to the markets anymore.

    What ought he have done?

    Rip off his testosterone-drenched shirt, beat his ginger-hairy chest, and challenge M. Sarkozy to a bout under the Queensbury Rules?

    I don't see the harm in it. This isn't Putin's Russia. Glorification of the masculinity of The Leader is hardly a serious priority.

    This week will reveal all. Up until now, a deal has been priced in, so expect big volatility, particularly on the equity markets. Longer term, it has political consequences and a precedent has been set.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    These derivatives are the worry:

    UNITED States of America – It can now be reported that the Greek euro denominated debt has escalated to $360 billion. This now represents as much as $25 TRILLION of worthless cross-collateralized derivatives, which are outstanding with now the Bank of England and the Bank of New York Mellon as counter parties.
    They have joined Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank of New York, German Deutsche Bank, Société Générale of France and Barclays Bank of England as catching full scale contagion disease.
    Without a Greek deal all of these aforementioned banks collapse leading to capital controls and the possibility of worldwide bank runs.
    At this hour it is all about the repo rate, the lack of liquidity in the system leading to a derivative debacle


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    Time to put money into gold?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    Time to put money into gold?

    Not intended as investment advice, but if you are that way inclined, silver is trading at a nice discount to gold on a historical basis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,471 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    What ought he have done?

    Rip off his testosterone-drenched shirt, beat his ginger-hairy chest, and challenge M. Sarkozy to a bout under the Queensbury Rules?

    I don't see the harm in it. This isn't Putin's Russia. Glorification of the masculinity of The Leader is hardly a serious priority.

    Putin is at one extreme of laughable behaviour, Kenny getting his hair roughed up at the other.

    Kenny and Sarkozy were both elected representatives of their nations. Most politicians in those scenarios manage to get by without having their dignity trampled like that. It should never even get to the stage where Kenny (Ireland's elected leader, god help us) is humiliated in front of the cameras like that and has no good options.

    That interaction between Kenny and Sarkozy was just a highlight of the deferential, submissive attitude of the Irish government to the EU over the past 7 or 8 years. I don't even blame Sarkozy as such: Kenny is so deferential that Sarkozy knew he could get away with it, and he was right.


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sand wrote: »
    Most politicians in those scenarios manage to get by without having their dignity trampled like that. It should never even get to the stage where Kenny (Ireland's elected leader, god help us) is humiliated in front of the cameras like that and has no good options.
    I'm sorry but this really is decidedly Putinesque.

    I rather consider the "trampling" of politicians' dignity a linchpin of democracy.
    Macbeth would never have succumbed to the prophecies of the three wayward sisters if there had existed any plain-talking faultfinders to have a go at him, and burst his ego.
    If Charlie Hebdo had been around in the 18th century, the King of France and his fat Canons wouldn't have been half as uppity; they might have lost their hard necks, and kept their heads intact.

    The capacity to trample and lampoon the dignity of the figurehead is a wellspring of popular power. Anytime 18 or 28 old farts sit down for dinner and have a crack at ordering the lives of 500 million people, they should feel the jaws of the media, the People's burdizzo, on their balls. If Sarkozy contribues to the takedown, well what about it?

    It is vital that this happens. I still don't know what you wanted The Leader to do about it when it did.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,368 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    Rightwing wrote: »
    These derivatives are the worry:

    UNITED States of America – It can now be reported that the Greek euro denominated debt has escalated to $360 billion. This now represents as much as $25 TRILLION of worthless cross-collateralized derivatives, which are outstanding with now the Bank of England and the Bank of New York Mellon as counter parties.
    They have joined Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank of New York, German Deutsche Bank, Société Générale of France and Barclays Bank of England as catching full scale contagion disease.
    Without a Greek deal all of these aforementioned banks collapse leading to capital controls and the possibility of worldwide bank runs.
    At this hour it is all about the repo rate, the lack of liquidity in the system leading to a derivative debacle

    Firms have had 2 years to unwind any Greek derivative positions. That quote sounds like some shite Zero Hedge would post.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    Rightwing wrote: »
    I've been surprised at how tough a stance the creditors have taken with Greece. Seems to me now that Ireland simply had no choice but to comply with their demands. Importantly, I think the Europeans are underestimating the effects a Grexit will have on the markets.

    The creditors were not tough on Greece. Greece is insolvent and the only reason the creditors have continued giving them money and writing off small
    parts of their debt is because they do not want to contend with the reality that Greece is insolvent and it cannot and will not pay its debts. Postponing the day of reckoning like this is foolish and it will only make matters worse.

    Ireland very definitely did have a choice and it choose the soft option of a Troika bailout. Again this will only delay Ireland`s day of reckoning and it will worsen it by multiples when it comes. Ireland could have done an Iceland. It choose not to. Iceland did what Iceland did because it did not have the choice like Ireland.

    As long as a Grexit can be postponed, it is unlikely to happen in my view, because of political cowardice. However, it will happen eventually and when it does, the consequences will be irrelevant. What must be must be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,768 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Rightwing wrote: »
    They have joined Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citibank of New York, German Deutsche Bank, Société Générale of France and Barclays Bank of England as catching full scale contagion disease.
    Without a Greek deal all of these aforementioned banks collapse leading to capital controls and the possibility of worldwide bank runs.
    At this hour it is all about the repo rate, the lack of liquidity in the system leading to a derivative debacle

    These banks are well prepared and will have had a contingency plans for a Grexit for years now. Not to say they won't be affected, but it will be minimal.


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rightwing wrote: »
    This week will reveal all. Up until now, a deal has been priced in, so expect big volatility, particularly on the equity markets.
    The FTSE EuroFirst 300, the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt and other Eurozone stocks are back where they were about a fortnight ago. All is quiet on the western front. Are you sure you don't want to revise this prediction?

    It's clear that Grexit contagion is contained.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    The FTSE EuroFirst 300, the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt and other Eurozone stocks are back where they were about a fortnight ago. All is quiet on the western front. Are you sure you don't want to revise this prediction?

    It's clear that Grexit contagion is contained.


    It won't be clear until Grexit happens.


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Godge wrote: »
    It won't be clear until Grexit happens.
    No, it is perfectly clear today. It's the last Friday before the referendum, and there was tumbleweed blowing through Eurozone equities. Yesterday, German Bund benchmark yields, which move inversely to Eurozone political risk, actually rose slightly. Spain and Italian yields were deadpan. It is clear that European investors are not concerned.

    Political contagion is a different, longer term issue that could generate market concerns in a few years, but moreso if Greece stay in the Euro and win concessions.

    But clearly financial-market contagion through the Greek channel is no longer an issue.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,101 ✭✭✭Rightwing


    andrew wrote: »
    Firms have had 2 years to unwind any Greek derivative positions. That quote sounds like some shite Zero Hedge would post.

    German banks have more exposure to Greece now than they had 2 years ago, French banks have much less. It's about perceived risk.
    The creditors were not tough on Greece. Greece is insolvent and the only reason the creditors have continued giving them money and writing off small
    parts of their debt is because they do not want to contend with the reality that Greece is insolvent and it cannot and will not pay its debts. Postponing the day of reckoning like this is foolish and it will only make matters worse.

    Ireland very definitely did have a choice and it choose the soft option of a Troika bailout. Again this will only delay Ireland`s day of reckoning and it will worsen it by multiples when it comes. Ireland could have done an Iceland. It choose not to. Iceland did what Iceland did because it did not have the choice like Ireland.

    As long as a Grexit can be postponed, it is unlikely to happen in my view, because of political cowardice. However, it will happen eventually and when it does, the consequences will be irrelevant. What must be must be.

    It wasn't that small, somewhere in the region of a 50% writedown ?
    The FTSE EuroFirst 300, the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt and other Eurozone stocks are back where they were about a fortnight ago. All is quiet on the western front. Are you sure you don't want to revise this prediction?

    It's clear that Grexit contagion is contained.

    I concede it looks that way, but the markets are remarkably complacent at the moment. At this stage, it will probably take an actual Grexit to test the hypothesis.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/350m-to-be-spent-subsidising-families-in-low-paid-work-1.2273055

    That article basically points to the fact that most jobs created in the Irish economy over the past two years have been low paid jobs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,138 ✭✭✭realitykeeper


    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/350m-to-be-spent-subsidising-families-in-low-paid-work-1.2273055

    That article basically points to the fact that most jobs created in the Irish economy over the past two years have been low paid jobs.

    I can believe it. Another very pertinent point can be made by comparing the main jobs pages in any recent newspaper publication with the main jobs page in the same newspaper back in 2000. Back then, there were a lot more jobs for engineers, technicians and other skilled people in industry. Now the only high paid jobs are in the public sector/civil service. Recruitment firms advertise for engineers, technicians, etc to fill jobs in Dubai no doubt, but it is rare to find companies advertising directly for such positions anymore.

    It is never a good thing to see the state recruiting. At the end of the day, the taxpayer has to pay for everything.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 3,368 Mod ✭✭✭✭andrew


    Rightwing wrote: »
    German banks have more exposure to Greece now than they had 2 years ago, French banks have much less. It's about perceived risk.


    Proof/data?
    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/350m-to-be-spent-subsidising-families-in-low-paid-work-1.2273055

    That article basically points to the fact that most jobs created in the Irish economy over the past two years have been low paid jobs.

    The goalposts tend to move with the economy though, right? It used to be 'there aren't enough jobs' now it's 'there aren't enough high paying jobs.' Surely the latter is better than the former.
    I can believe it. Another very pertinent point can be made by comparing the main jobs pages in any recent newspaper publication with the main jobs page in the same newspaper back in 2000.

    Perhaps that's because a significant amount of jobs are advertised online now, which wasn't the case in 2000.


This discussion has been closed.
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