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Realistic Economy News thread

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,882 ✭✭✭Saipanne


    Geuze wrote: »
    The banking crisis cost the State 63-64bn gross, at a time when gross public debt was 200bn approx.

    I would call 32% of our public debt significant.

    The banking crisis was, and is, and will be, a significant cost on the general public.

    Who, in turn, played a significant role in the crisis.

    "Oh, I got myself a lovely little place in Bulgaria."

    "I know it's my second holiday, but you gotta treat yourself"

    "Jaysus, every is driving a Pajero these days, I have to buy a new suv"

    "No need to save a deposit, just take a credit union loan, the bank wont be able to tell"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    Saipanne wrote: »
    Who, in turn, played a significant role in the crisis.

    "Oh, I got myself a lovely little place in Bulgaria."

    "I know it's my second holiday, but you gotta treat yourself"

    "Jaysus, every is driving a Pajero these days, I have to buy a new suv"

    "No need to save a deposit, just take a credit union loan, the bank wont be able to tell"

    Full agree with this.
    Keeping up with the Jones'

    A lot of pressure also came from the previous generation, who see owning property as a sign of wealth and social advancement


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Saipanne wrote:
    "Jaysus, every is driving a Pajero these days, I have to buy a new suv"

    Saipanne wrote:
    "Oh, I got myself a lovely little place in Bulgaria."

    Saipanne wrote:
    Who, in turn, played a significant role in the crisis.

    Saipanne wrote:
    "I know it's my second holiday, but you gotta treat yourself"

    Saipanne wrote:
    "No need to save a deposit, just take a credit union loan, the bank wont be able to tell"


    They are arrangements between the borrower and the lender. They have nothing to do with the taxpayer


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,497 ✭✭✭ezra_pound


    Where's all the news?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    You are more intelligent than that. Debate the points made rather than deflecting to a completely different point

    That is the point. The IMF, made up as it is of professionals with at least some understanding and working knowledge of economics, has never advocated that sovereign states should welsh on their debts. I presume that's why you conceded the point rather than engage in a vain effort to counter it. But others - whose knowledge of both finance and economics could most charitably described as "limited" - made those calls in respect of Ireland at the time we were given the next best thing to a soft landing by the Troika in 2010.

    As others have pointed out, it's better for governments to manage their affairs intelligently and avoid getting into a fiscal crisis in the first place. But once they do get into trouble, the solution is not to walk away from their responsibilities, or to wish for help from the magic money fairies. The solution is to get stuck in and carry out the adjustments needed so as get public finances back on track.

    That's what Ireland set out to do in 2010 - with, it cannot be denied, a huge measure of help from the EU and the IMF. And the responsible approach has been largely a success, especially when one considers the bleak prospects we all faced in 2010. That's realistic. It's also news, or at least it's news to some less well-informed folk, not least those who cried "default" back in 2010-2011.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    ezra_pound wrote: »
    Where's all the news?

    Realistic news doesn't make for sexy headlines.

    We've achieved much in the last few years, but that doesn't negate the fact that we shouldn't have gotten into such a mess in the first place.

    And it's official - Ireland has a standard of living below the EU average. No link because I can't recall where I read this, but the story is out there.

    So although we've made a start, we still have a lot of recovering to do.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,882 ✭✭✭Saipanne


    Realistic news doesn't make for sexy headlines.

    We've achieved much in the last few years, but that doesn't negate the fact that we shouldn't have gotten into such a mess in the first place.

    And it's official - Ireland has a standard of living below the EU average. No link because I can't recall where I read this, but the story is out there.

    Hmmmm


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,027 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    And it's official - Ireland has a standard of living below the EU average. No link because I can't recall where I read this, but the story is out there.


    Our GDP per head is well ahead of the EU average.

    Our GNP per head - I'm not sure.

    But our AIC per head isn't great, at 93% of the EU average.

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6885941/2-16062015-BP-EN.pdf/5bb23f4c-cf7a-48fc-aa60-4e2d23087d01

    We are poorer than we think.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    GDP is not a realistic reflection of the economy

    Seeing as most of the profits are moved offshore, via our lax tax regime for foreign companies


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,248 ✭✭✭✭BoJack Horseman


    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    GDP is not a realistic reflection of the economy

    Seeing as most of the profits are moved offshore, via our lax tax regime for foreign companies

    Even pur GNP is in the top 20 on earth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Villa05 wrote:
    Who said that? Sharing of the bank debt was what the vast majority campaigned for, which is a perfectly reasonable request supported by the IMF and UK

    That is the point. The IMF, made up as it is of professionals with at least some understanding and working knowledge of economics, has never advocated that sovereign states should welsh on their debts. I presume that's why you conceded the point rather than engage in a vain effort to counter it. But others - whose knowledge of both finance and economics could most charitably described as "limited" - made those calls in respect of Ireland at the time we were given the next best thing to a soft landing by the Troika in 2010.


    My point which you have avoided is above

    Can you justify the transfer of private bank debt on to the shoulders of people who had no hand act or part in creating it.

    Is it appropriate to be gloating about the "success" of a bailout that transfers bank debt to public debt

    a policy the IMF were against.
    A policy the EU now agrees is a mistake and should be avoided in future.

    In such circumstances, would it not be too difficult to negotiate a better debt resolution for Ireland than that which was agreed by our "skilled" negotiators


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,363 ✭✭✭KingBrian2


    Villa05 wrote: »
    My point which you have avoided is above

    Can you justify the transfer of private bank debt on to the shoulders of people who had no hand act or part in creating it.

    Is it appropriate to be gloating about the "success" of a bailout that transfers bank debt to public debt

    a policy the IMF were against.
    A policy the EU now agrees is a mistake and should be avoided in future.

    In such circumstances, would it not be too difficult to negotiate a better debt resolution for Ireland than that which was agreed by our "skilled" negotiators

    We all played our part in the banking crisis. The banks were heavily leveraged with a dependence on construction and the property market increasing. In an ideal world the share prices of the banks would have halved while all we would have to do would be to reduce exposure but since the banks are vital to the running of an economy that was not possible. The people who advocate shifting the burden onto the banks and international actors believe in creating a debt free society. While deficits are part of the world we live in and reducing them is a positive simple ignore existing debt is not an answer to restoring balance to the public finances.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Geuze wrote: »
    Our GDP per head is well ahead of the EU average.

    Our GNP per head - I'm not sure.

    But our AIC per head isn't great, at 93% of the EU average.

    http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6885941/2-16062015-BP-EN.pdf/5bb23f4c-cf7a-48fc-aa60-4e2d23087d01

    We are poorer than we think.

    You'll probably find that our GNP per capita is in line with the AIC performance; you'll also probably find that if you were to look at median income rather than average income that Ireland would be below the EU average.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Can you justify the transfer of private bank debt on to the shoulders of people who had no hand act or part in creating it.

    Yes. Easily. Can't you? Seriously? :eek::eek::eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 565 ✭✭✭Tigerbaby


    Villa05 wrote: »
    They are arrangements between the borrower and the lender. They have nothing to do with the taxpayer


    this !

    and less of the "we" crap.

    I run a clean ship and a clean budget for my home and family.

    why am I paying for fools?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    would it not be too difficult to negotiate a better debt resolution for Ireland....

    Leaving aside the fact that the above is a slogan rather than a meaningful economic expression, it displays precisely the same economic and financial lack of understanding that was displayed so often on this forum in 2010-11, that was displayed in the responses of many people on boards to the Syriza-inspired crisis in Greece, and that has been so often displayed in recent years in the responses of so-called "socialists" to the issue of public debt.

    Firstly, Ireland has already had a "better debt resolution"; so has Greece. Moreover, Ireland will get further improvements in the future; so will Greece. To refer to the words of the song.....

    ..."it ain't what you do, it's the way that you do it."

    Secondly, if you desperately need to take a short cut to "better debt resolution" that's up to you, but it means taking from someone what is rightfully theirs. You cannot destroy a liability without also destroying an asset; the fact that the asset isn't yours might make it easier for you to pretend it isn't being destroyed, but it is.

    Thirdly, the slogan above isn't an economic one; it is a political one. In 2010-11, many people - including many ill-qualified people on this forum - advocated that Ireland should repudiate its debts. The reason they advanced was not political, but economic. The reason they advanced was that the sheer size of the debt Ireland was taking on would be unsustainable and would grow and grow unless cut off and prevented from doing so.

    That economic argument has been proven incorrect in Ireland's case, as can be seen from the fact that the debt burden has fallen significantly over the last two years.

    The political argument is a different matter. If you wish to advance a political argument that says the banks' debts should never have been socialised in the first place, you go ahead and fill yer boots. Whether the scrapping of liabilities and the associated destruction of assets is acceptable or not is a matter for political debate......


    .....but the economic arguments put forward by the naysayers in 2010-11 have been proven wrong.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Villa05 wrote:
    Can you justify the transfer of private bank debt on to the shoulders of people who had no hand act or part in creating it.

    Yes. Easily. Can't you? Seriously?

    No, that's why I'm asking you.
    The IMF, UK and eventuality the EU admit it was a mistake. What pearls of wisdom do you posses to argue for it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Leaving aside the fact that the above is a slogan rather than a meaningful economic expression, it displays precisely the same economic and financial lack of understanding that was displayed .

    Can you debate the points made please and not go off in a tangent


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,027 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    You'll probably find that our GNP per capita is in line with the AIC performance; you'll also probably find that if you were to look at median income rather than average income that Ireland would be below the EU average.

    Yes, our GDP inflates our true living standards.

    AIC seems a better measure.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 43,308 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Yes. Easily. Can't you? Seriously? :eek::eek::eek:
    Tigerbaby wrote: »
    this !

    and less of the "we" crap.

    I run a clean ship and a clean budget for my home and family.

    why am I paying for fools?

    Mod:

    Can we up the standard of replies a bit please.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    No, that's why I'm asking you.
    The IMF, UK and eventuality the EU admit it was a mistake. .

    I left out your pejorative "question". Ná bí cantalach, níl gá leis.

    You cannot - simply cannot - find any source that will show that any of the authorities you mention have ever proposed that sovereign states should welsh on their debts. Why? Because it doesn't exist.

    You may, if you wish, make a political argument for not socialising the losses of the banks. You may even be right, and I may even be wrong to disagree with your view.

    But entertaining as such a question and its attendant debate might be, it is no more and no less than a tangent, or a sideshow. Because once the decision was made by the Irish government to "take on" Irish banking losses, it did not matter whether it was right or wrong, because if the Irish government had welshed on that decision it would have caused a complete collapse in the banking system and the economy - a much worse collapse than would have been caused by simply letting banks fail in the first place.

    Maybe you wouldn't have minded that, but I would have, as would most of the Irish population. An experiment in creating an economic wasteland might appeal to hardline leftists and purist economic theoreticians, but it doesn't appeal to ordinary people trying to get on with their lives.

    The net economic point, which ironically turns out to have huge political resonance, is that while it is a bad thing if banks fail to meet their liabilities and obligations, it is far worse indeed for sovereign governments to do so. Therefore, once the Irish government added the burden of bank losses to the burgeoning Exchequer borrowing requirements, it had no choice but to follow through on meeting its liabilities. None. The alternative was the same kind of command economy Syriza-style horror show we've witnessed in recent months (and with worse to come) in Greece.

    And to repeat the central point: Some people argued for welshing on the debts on economic grounds, not political. The fact that Ireland's public debt burden has fallen so much since 2013 shows that they weren't correct.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,463 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Mod note:

    Hi folks,

    Just a heads up, we might start moving the busy threads such as this one from Irish Economy to the Main Forum shortly.

    If you wamt to post feedback before we decide to do so, you can post it here:

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057470732

    Otherwise, if you post in this subforum only to find it in te main forum, please do not be alarmed!


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭Villa05


    You cannot - simply cannot - find any source that will show that any of the authorities you mention have ever proposed that sovereign states should welsh on their debts. Why? Because it doesn't exist.


    Again that is not what was proposed. The IMF are the world experts in debt resolution and they were opposed to socialising bank debt.
    It is not leftist ideology, it goes against the fundamentals of capitalism.
    The economy is growing now, but the policy of socialising these losses meant that growth was slower in coming.
    We did not get improved deals because of our negotiators, we got them by jumping on the back of Greece 's extra concessions.
    The interest burden of our debt has been mainly reduced as a consequence of the actions of Mario Dragi.
    Our growth is down to the resilience of the irish people but a lot is down to favourable exchange rates with dollar and pound, these are temporary.

    Complacency is building once again in the economy as rather than concentrating on repairing the damage we are reverting to habits that brought the country to its knees


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Again that is not what was proposed. The IMF are the world experts in debt resolution and they were opposed to socialising bank debt.
    It is not leftist ideology, it goes against the fundamentals of capitalism.
    The economy is growing now, but the policy of socialising these losses meant that growth was slower in coming.
    We did not get improved deals because of our negotiators, we got them by jumping on the back of Greece 's extra concessions.
    The interest burden of our debt has been mainly reduced as a consequence of the actions of Mario Dragi.
    Our growth is down to the resilience of the irish people but a lot is down to favourable exchange rates with dollar and pound, these are temporary.

    Complacency is building once again in the economy as rather than concentrating on repairing the damage we are reverting to habits that brought the country to its knees

    Interesting as the above might be, none of it is connected to the point I made. I appreciate that you regard it as important - and I stress that I'm not arguing against your view of it as being important - but to have any direct relevance it would have to be set out in a debate prior to the decision to socialise the bank losses. Once that decision was made and the bank losses became part of government debt, debating points about whether or not the decision should have been made are intellectually interesting in a discussion about what the economy might have been like if it weren't the way it is, but they don't offer much value in terms of an analysis of where the economy is or where it is going.

    And again I have to repeat the point, lest sight of it be lost: The economic argument people made in 2010-2011 for welshing on our debts has been shown to be wrong by the fall in the debt burden over the last couple of years.


  • Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    debating points about whether or not the decision should have been made [...] don't offer much value in terms of an analysis of where the economy is or where it is going.
    Fair enough, but then you say...
    The economic argument people made in 2010-2011 for welshing on our debts has been shown to be wrong by the fall in the debt burden over the last couple of years.
    Why do you find such relevance in repeating this point, whilst effectively telling the poster that her point is moot & irrelevant.

    Ireland is not a wetter version of Greece. The two economies are not remotely comparable in terms of their design, in terms of their respective flaws, and by implication, the remedies & reforms that they both require.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,468 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Not really news, but Chopra confirmed that the ECB delivered an ultimatum to Ireland in 2010. He also confirmed that any assistance offered to Ireland was provided begrudgingly. He noted that the ECB policy to rule out burning senior bondholders caused a “higher burden for Irish taxpayers and a higher public debt” and that the overall ECB/EU policy “worsened the crisis”.

    He also stated that since 2008 the EU/ECB had developed no tools that would make a significant difference were another major bank to fail.

    On the other hand, Noonan has confirmed that the crisis will cost only at least 35 billion Euro.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 8,723 ✭✭✭nice_guy80


    Web Summit 2016 moved to Lisbon

    apparently the event was priced out of Dublin with hotels and other providers for the event


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,515 ✭✭✭Firefox11


    nice_guy80 wrote: »
    Web Summit 2016 moved to Lisbon

    apparently the event was priced out of Dublin with hotels and other providers for the event

    Does this mean we a back to the "shake you down for all the money you got" boom years? I see we have learned our lesson. ;)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭Villa05


    nice_guy80 wrote:
    apparently the event was priced out of Dublin with hotels and other providers for the event

    We probably need those hotels for expos on Lunar real estate.


This discussion has been closed.
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