Ukraine: As it happens.

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Do elaborate - interested to hear your views on this, as many think the West did feck all.

I think whatever happens in the area that involves the west is amplified by it's ties with Russia.

Certain comments by US diplomats about the picking of govt positions and not realizing the feeling Russia would have of a noose around a limb.

Ukraine is important to the Europeans, but it is crucial to Russia, for reasons transcending economic and trade ties. In the battle for influence over Ukraine, the Russians have an advantage, but Kyiv will continue entertaining both sides to extract as many concessions as it can.

It is a question of what the West would like vrs what Russia needs. Ukraine is also important for military reasons; the Ukrainian city of Sevastopol is the headquarters for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine’s strategic location as a borderland between Russia and Europe and its proximity to Russia’s own breadbasket and economic heartland in the Volga region make the country key to Russia’s geopolitical strength and, ultimately, its survival.

Russia was not playing fair of course ...but I think the US did not realize or chose not to care about how crucial the Ukraine is to Russia. ANd did not contemplate how growing relationships with the West threaten Russia grips which Russia sees as crucial.

A strong Russia allied with Ukraine gives Moscow confidence and strength, particularly in dealing with Europe, while a Russia without Ukraine is weak to its core.

The West has been trying to lure the Ukraine. The main issue was a free trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine. But many of Ukraine's goods are not as competitive in the EU as they are in Russia.

Putin pushed back saying if there was an EU/Ukraine agreement then RUssia would put duties on Ukrainian goods..and this would destroy Ukriane exports Russia accounts of 40% of these.

I don't think the West cared or understood how important Russia and Ukrainian were to each other and how potentially damaging and poisonous either could choose to make that relationship to the other if they chose. Infact I think the west used it as a potential to weaken russia. Or that is how the russians saw it.

If the west did not see how it could weaken Russia I would be extremely surprised. I am not saying that was the intent. But they should have realized Russian fears and realized what that could make Russia capable of and what the effects would be on the Ukraine and what it's govt would have to do.

And the EU has done little. Putin will attempt to persuade Ukraine to join the Customs Union with Russia and Kazakhstan rather than establish a free trade deal with the European Union.

Despite its rhetoric, Russia is not as interested in Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union as it is in deterring further Ukrainian integration into Europe.

Any action taken by the US and EU could be motivated by economic interest, not support for democratic and civil rights.

“In this whole march towards the East, Ukraine is the prize. It’s the most European, it’s the largest, it’s in resource terms the richest…and the West wants to take that from Russia.”

This may be propaganda but in a way it is how one side sees things.

A main player in the turmoil in the Ukraine is George Soros, the multibillionaire hedge fund pirate who controls the fortunes of the British Royal family.

The most violent of the demonstrators claiming to speak for all of the Ukraine is the Spilna Sprava which has direct connections to George Soros, the EU and the IMF.

We know that talking about US and EU, or even EU acting "very coherent economic, political and military unison" is outright fantastic and silly. But it plays well with some in the Ukraine.

There was a lot of propaganda (like there is here during referendums ) that the EU trade agreement was going to dismantle social services etc.

I am not familiar with the agreement but even the rumor would inflame a tense situation.

The truth may be an aggressive minority is trying to force it's will on the Ukraine. But the west has not worked together to play a smart game at all.

The Russians seem keen to publicly stress they welcome EU and Ukraine trade ...in fact the Russians are complicity involved in the leaked phone call which a US diplomat said 'F the EU ' recently in talking about plans for Ukraine.

I wish I knew more I don't claim to have a great knowledge of the conflict maybe someone else knows more.

Daisy 55 wrote: »

Had a lovely summer holiday with our two small children, only 3 years ago! Were hoping to go back at some time. Very sad to see this.

It is supposed to be beautiful and the people lovely.

Donkey Oaty wrote: »

Just looking at that, it appears that a change in wind-direction could be decisive.

I think broadcasters are being shutdown occasionally.

Germany seems to be emerging as the biggest player in the EU ...and distinct from the US it must be pissing off the UK no end.

BERLIN - Germany is seeking to play good cop to America's bad cop in Western efforts to mediate between the government and protesters in Ukraine in an early test of the German government's efforts at a more robust foreign policy role.

The Germans have refused to back Washington's calls for sanctions against Ukraine's government to pressure it into accepting opposition demands for reforms.

At the same time, Germany has launched a flurry of diplomacy toward Kyiv and Moscow — a key ally of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych — while trying to promote selected Ukrainian opposition leaders as legitimate negotiating partners.

Sweden and the Baltic nations, which have pressed for a harder line against the former Soviet republic and Germany seems to have gone out on it's own without discussing things with her EU partners. But it fits in with the German government's recent pledge for a more assertive role on the international stage I don't know how that will play with the rest of the EU. And it seems disorganized. Germany cannot really afford to play fire with Russia.

Germany has been working with Poland. These events affect Poland most I think. Poland can;t really stand up to Russia. Germany is in a better position to.

Germany was Key in getting Yulia Tymeshenko released but completely misjudged how popular Tymeshenko was/ is and how much reform Tymeshenko could bring. I think germany over estimated support form ordinary Ukrainians.

I think the goal is settling political unrest whilst not causing a rift with Russia. I don't know how possible that is.

And ordinary Ukrainians seem sick of the tug of war.