LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705

BEASTERLY · 16-01-2013 11:39pm

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

Evidence suggest no noticeable accuracy difference between 00z/12z and 06z/18z. Also the notion that the 06z//18z has less data input it more myth than fact. 3rd post in that thread.

BEASTERLY · 16-01-2013 11:45pm

maquiladora wrote: »

99 red balloons.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

Check the link I gave above. Seems the less data story is a myth more than fact. In the long run, no real difference in verification stats.

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2013 11:46pm

we will set up an 'event' thread if the morning models warrant one.

Snowy dreams to all.

derekon · 16-01-2013 11:48pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

we will set up an 'event' thread if the morning models warrant one.

Snowy dreams to all.

That sounds great Weathercheck - the alternative will be "Britannia gets the snow, Hibernia the rain, as usual"

I am hoping for the "event" thread

D

icesnowfrost · 16-01-2013 11:48pm

So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

Sibehusk · 16-01-2013 11:49pm

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

You know you've reached your wits end when you're shouting 'You Fcuking Liar' at Gerry Murphy at 9:31 p.m. on a Weds night. The wife even had to come in to tell me to calm down.

I'm going to have to go for therapy soon.

He didn't even say Sleet.He had it on the summary chart for Sunday, and he wouldn't even say the word.

Pmsl. I was the same.

maquiladora · 16-01-2013 11:52pm

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

It's Wednesday. There's no need for them to talk about the weekend forecast on TV yet. It's a marginal situation with changes on the models every 12 hours.

jo06555 · 17-01-2013 12:02am

icesnowfrost wrote: »

So is met e correct or is everyone on here correct. Why can we see snow the weekend and met e flat out can't ?

Met office dont see us getting anything either but all of uk on friday to get it

disaster ..... bbc link too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i08De9-lPcE&feature=youtube_gdata_player ??????

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 12:05am

Ensemble mean for t78. Nice.

FWVT · 17-01-2013 12:12am

ME have been spot on all week. As the usual rampers have been on here chasing their tails, ME have been generating accurate forecasts. Forecasts that have not been what people wanted to hear but their job is not to please a pack of snowbunnies on a discussion board but to say it as it is. There is time enough to mention snow tomorrow if and when the chances grow to more than the current remote.

People need to grow up a little. Many are dillusional to think that they know more than a national weather service and that members of this service may change their forecasts based on what is posted by some on here. ECMWF members also have access to 06 and 18Z ECMWF model runs at 1-hr steps out to 90 hours. They have a plethora of extra parameters in all the models, many more than are available to us, plus experience, so I think they know what they're doing.

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 12:16am

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Going by the present models (except GFS) I would not rule out a wintry weekend with snow.

Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.

davidsr20 · 17-01-2013 12:17am

Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?
What time is the next run out?

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 12:19am

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?

When it happens.

Tornando9 · 17-01-2013 12:19am

100% certainty of the outcome on Monday.

davidsr20 wrote: »

Guys when will we know for sure about the event this weekend?

Speak Now · 17-01-2013 12:22am

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

This is the thing, met eireann have been wrong time and again. They have changed their forecasts consistently, I could show you quote from few days ago saying snow accumulations in the east and north easy for Tuesday night and today. They just change their mind day before. Their forecast beyond a day or two have been consistently off.

In fairness, weather models have been so erratic but changing forecast every day doesn't exactly count as correct forecasting!!

Forecasting by its nature will always be inaccuarte to some degree. Since someone got carried away with forecasting snow 1 week in advance they've been fairly spot on in fairness. Definitely the best forecast your gonna get for this island.

Blizzard 2010 · 17-01-2013 12:25am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Actually the GFS is the coldest and snowiest of the big 3 for the weekend.

Which GFS

Speak Now · 17-01-2013 12:31am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32149-gfs-12z-and-0z-runs-compared-to-6z-and-18z-runs/

Evidence suggest no noticeable accuracy difference between 00z/12z and 06z/18z. Also the notion that the 06z//18z has less data input it more myth than fact. 3rd post in that thread.

Cheers Beasterly, so both ECM runs are more accuarte than all GFS runs

No shock there.

Deep Easterly · 17-01-2013 12:33am

Maybe a bigger concern for Friday is the potential for some flooding? looks like a fair bit of rain could fall over what is a basically a very saturated country at this point. This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.

Graupel · 17-01-2013 12:33am

At least the GFS developed the low this time it was nowhere to be seen on the 12z, To me thats a step in the right direction. I wasnt expecting any sort of a backtrack from the GFS till morning so happy enough.

Morning should be fun

oterra · 17-01-2013 12:35am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.

Tell me about it, de wife hasn't stopped goin on about it all week!!!:eek:

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 12:36am

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Which GFS

Both the 12z and 18z are colder than the UKMO and ECM for this weekend. GFS goes mild early next week.

Larbre34 · 17-01-2013 12:36am

I can understand the frustration but to my mind this is a simpler situation than is being speculated on. For Ireland to see snow in the current circumstances we would need the kind of cold air and land that Britain has for the mild fronts to override and turn to snow, we dont even remotely have that so it just wont come through for us without a major cold pool push west and a week of penetrating air and ground frost. The margins are across Wales but for us id say its a bust out to +144 at least

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 12:38am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Maybe a bigger concern for Friday is the potential for some flooding? looks like a fair bit of rain could fall over what is a basically a very saturated country at this point. This is despite lower than average rainfall totals over the last few weeks, just been no drying at all.

Yep. Close to 30mm in most places by 6pm Friday on the NAE, higher in some spots.

Conor30 · 17-01-2013 12:50am

jo06555 wrote: »

Met office dont see us getting anything either but all of uk on friday to get it disaster ..... bbc link too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i08De9-lPcE&feature=youtube_gdata_player ??????

Thanks for posting. Shows clearly that Ireland will be getting just rain on Fri anyway. Wouldn't it be so cool if the cold air just shunted westwards a bit more!!! :pac:

Rebelbrowser · 17-01-2013 12:54am

Larbre34 wrote: »

I can understand the frustration but to my mind this is a simpler situation than is being speculated on. For Ireland to see snow in the current circumstances we would need the kind of cold air and land that Britain has for the mild fronts to override and turn to snow, we dont even remotely have that so it just wont come through for us without a major cold pool push west and a week of penetrating air and ground frost. The margins are across Wales but for us id say its a bust out to +144 at least

MT has confirmed speculation on here that you would only need -5 uppers for snow with this kind of set up. All models show that possibility for Sun / Mon.

Lucreto · 17-01-2013 12:55am

Just out of interest would the Met Office even report snow in the Republic. It's main concern in the UK.

It looks kind of odd that snow is forecast only in UK owned areas.

Blizzard 2010 · 17-01-2013 12:59am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Both the 12z and 18z are colder than the UKMO and ECM for this weekend. GFS goes mild early next week.

I am just after seeing the 18z. All three models are broadly the same. The positioning of the LP will be important. The 12z wasnt as progressive as the 18z.

tylercollins · 17-01-2013 1:04am

Entire UK apart from Northern Ireland under snow warning... Northern Ireland under rain

Danno · 17-01-2013 1:05am

compsys wrote: »

It's midnight in the pit of winter and the temperature in Dublin is 6 degrees. It's forecast to reach 10 in some places tomorrow. That's on the mild side even for Ireland.

Christmas Eve 2004.

3pm temperatures 14c in Cork
11pm temperatures 2c in Cork - with Snow.

Things can and do change rapidly.

maquiladora · 17-01-2013 1:08am

tylercollins wrote: »

Entire UK apart from Northern Ireland under snow warning... Northern Ireland under rain

That may change tomorrow.

LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

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LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!RAMPING THREADMod Note #1193#2705