Winter FI Charts

Villain · 22-11-2010 5:50pm

Joe B would be yelling "I told you so" if this happened, way way out in FI btw

thetonynator · 24-11-2010 9:12pm

TheInquisitor · 24-11-2010 10:59pm

Lads the charts are just amazing. Constant upgrades. Loads of possible snow events mainly in the north/ east of Ireland but could happen anywhere.

Over here in the UK i put out the sledges for sale(£6.99) around 2:30pm and we sold at least 15-20 in 3 hours.

Its freezing over here and we're on the coast in Dorset. There could even be a significant event next week in the south with a storm possibly brewing off the Iberian Peninsula which with the cold pool over the UK could leave a dumping of over a foot if it came off.

Check out the charts anyway for 48 hours.

TheInquisitor · 24-11-2010 11:23pm

Sorry about the posts on england i know im just being selfish but... forecast from today is for half a metre to be accumulated by December 1st on my apartment!!

TheInquisitor · 25-11-2010 10:17pm

The storm is modeled more southerly on the latest GFS

WolfeIRE · 25-11-2010 10:55pm

Other models have significantly upgraded the snow potential for Tuesday PM/Wednesday though. This event has the potential to be significant for Ireland in terms of snowfall if the models continue this way. At present, most point to a significant snow event for Ireland. The GFS has wobbled since last and so has ECM to a lesser extent. Tomorrow's runs will be interesting

gme

UKMO

GME

CMC

JMA

NOGAPS

TheMilkyPirate · 25-11-2010 11:29pm

That CMC one would be nice!

Villain · 27-11-2010 9:21pm

Talk of FI has gone quite, umm is that because the Atlantic looks to win out after Friday?

Hopefully that will change for the better

thetonynator · 27-11-2010 9:35pm

Villain wrote: »

Talk of FI has gone quite, umm is that because the Atlantic looks to win out after Friday?

Hopefully that will change for the better

Its because we dont need FI when there are better charts for the next 48 hours!!!

WolfeIRE · 27-11-2010 10:02pm

after friday of this week things the 'severe' cold does break down in most model runs. after that it becomes marginal at best.

This may change again tomorrow as you know

TheInquisitor · 27-11-2010 10:12pm

Looks like possibly a lot of people could see snow this Wednesday on the Pub run.

There ya go Villain !!

TheInquisitor · 27-11-2010 10:45pm

And also at the very end of FI.....

This storm could bring widespread heavy snow. Dunno though could be very marginal with those uppers

glimmerman123 · 28-11-2010 12:32pm

I just listened to the BBC weekly update. The said that the low pressure to the south is pushing eastwards not northwards so that seems to rule out the potential for heavy snow for Ireland next Tuesday and Wednesday.:(

nacho libre · 28-11-2010 12:48pm

TheInquisitor wrote: »

And also at the very end of FI.....

This storm could bring widespread heavy snow. Dunno though could be very marginal with those uppers

well hopefully the cold air being entrenched over us for so long would work in our favour. with a residual pool of cold air it could just tip the balance in our favour.
well, of course that chart could be completely different come that day. it would be much better though if we saw systems tracking to the south of Ireland.

Villain · 28-11-2010 10:52pm

Umm FI not looking too good at present

thetonynator · 03-12-2010 5:11pm

Windy in a while??? Although its so far deep into FI, but it could happen . . .:rolleyes:

Edit: It just updated to the 12z and well . . the storm vanished . .:rolleyes:

Darwin · 03-12-2010 5:18pm

Could be signs of the winter storm MT has alluded to in his daily forecasts.

thetonynator · 04-12-2010 12:49pm

Hmmm . . .:rolleyes:

thetonynator · 04-12-2010 12:53pm

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I wanted to be realistic and wait until December

nacho libre wrote: »

very nice to look at and dream about, but we all know it'll be watered down closer to the time:(

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes that's true. No doubt the cracking FI ecm charts will be diluted in future outputs too. We saw this happen a lot last year.
So with the fairly warm seas temperatures, it's going to be difficult to get snow at lower levels here, unless deeper cold makes its way towards us

maquiladora wrote: »

The 12Z ECM run is fantastic for this time of year, its very early in the season for a setup like that, thats why its so exciting. No point looking at the exact details of the charts deep in FI because they are going to change one way or the other.

nacho libre wrote: »

I agree. Which is why I was sounding a cautionary note for those who maybe don't follow the models that these charts, while exciting for the time of year, are always likely to change to a less favourable outcome. So people won't be needlessly getting their hopes up for widespread snow at lower levels just yet.

maquiladora wrote: »

Have a look at the precip charts on that control run between about 216 and 300. :pac:

Its pure fiction but nice to look at.

The beauty of hindsight . . .:D:D:pac:

Iancar29 · 04-12-2010 1:13pm

" 1 ticket to the biggest rollercoaster ever please " ...

Musicman2000 · 04-12-2010 1:18pm

The problem is that high pressure, could push west and land itself right over us and the uk and will be very hard to shift

Iancar29 · 04-12-2010 1:35pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The problem is that high pressure, could push west and land itself right over us and the uk and will be very hard to shift

I hav a feeling it will shift down and plop itself over belgium/austria... but ye, we will hav to wait and see!

nacho libre · 04-12-2010 3:11pm

thetonynator wrote: »

The beauty of hindsight . . .:D:D:pac:

:pac: yes. general hindsight has never lost a war!

Redsunset · 04-12-2010 3:45pm

RELOAD YOUR WEAPON SIR!!!!!

I remain in good belief of a second coming.
For the ammunition is in plenty store and the troops have only to realign their attack upon our great nation. Let the Battle commence!!!!

Saganist · 04-12-2010 3:58pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

" 1 ticket to the biggest rollercoaster ever please " ...

Thats some chart. :eek::eek:

And Im not even sure I know how to read it...

thetonynator · 04-12-2010 8:21pm

Saganist wrote: »

Thats some chart. :eek::eek:

And Im not even sure I know how to read it...

bright colours . . ..

At least thats the easiest interpretation . . .:P

maquiladora · 04-12-2010 11:09pm

:cool:

patneve2 · 05-12-2010 1:17pm

GFS still really wants to bring back that Greenland high in about 12 days, we seriously could be in for a re-load. I'm still not sure though, the 'road' up North seems a lot less open, there are more shortwaves/instability so it would be harder for the high to push up North. We shall see...very interesting model watching these days.

pistolpetes11 · 06-12-2010 8:42pm

not bad

maquiladora · 07-12-2010 8:54am

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow....

BEASTERLY · 07-12-2010 9:37am

maquiladora wrote: »

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow....

Is this the winter storm M.T was talking about, if so its strange for the models to pick up something like this so far out.

Iancar29 · 07-12-2010 9:42am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Is this the winter storm M.T was talking about, if so its strange for the models to pick up something like this so far out.

Yep this is it, there definitely will be a lot of change over the next coming days but ye, its there thats the main thing.

SHould we start a warning thread soon, not for the snow lovers ( that shouldnt go up till the week of the event ) , but just to warn people it could happen and to stock up while the " thaw" settles in?

BEASTERLY · 07-12-2010 9:51am

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yep this is it, there definitely will be a lot of stychange over the next coming days but ye, its there thats the main thing.

SHould we start a warning thread soon, not for the snow lovers ( that shouldnt go up till the week of the event ) , but just to warn people it could happen and to stock up while the " thaw" settles in?

Might be a good idea. Suppose its up the mods.

munsterlegend · 07-12-2010 10:01am

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yep this is it, there definitely will be a lot of change over the next coming days but ye, its there thats the main thing.

SHould we start a warning thread soon, not for the snow lovers ( that shouldnt go up till the week of the event ) , but just to warn people it could happen and to stock up while the " thaw" settles in?

surely it's far too early yet? not doubting MT's prediction but it is well into the future and no need to cause to undue panic just yet.

i should work for met eireann!

Timistry · 07-12-2010 10:03am

:eek: that chart is just weather porn! If that even remotely came to pass it would be a legendary event and the south would definetely get a good dumping of snow for once. Pity its in FI though!:rolleyes:

bbam · 07-12-2010 10:12am

Timistry wrote: »

Pity its in FI though!:rolleyes:

Sorry but what's FI?

alfa beta · 07-12-2010 10:20am

Timistry wrote: »

:eek: that chart is just weather porn! If that even remotely came to pass it would be a legendary event and the south would definetely get a good dumping of snow for once. Pity its in FI though!:rolleyes:

I'd put my faith in MT more than I would in an FI chart, but when the two start to coincide, then hey who knows, 'legendary' may just come to pass!!

roryc1 · 07-12-2010 10:25am

I would say hold off on a warning tread just now, yes all the signs are there for another cold spell from middle to end of next week, but I would be worried about the timing of any severe weather event for Ireland as these things have a habit of been pushed back as we get closer to reliable time frame,
But the models are showing some amazing stuff all right

sean555 · 07-12-2010 10:27am

FI = Fantasy Island

maquiladora · 07-12-2010 10:53am

bbam wrote: »

Sorry but what's FI?

Fantasy Island. Ay charts that are outside of the reliable timeframe and therefore very, very unlikely to pan out exactly as shown.

thetonynator · 07-12-2010 11:21am

Bit of a downgrade in the 6z for the storm . . :rolleyes: but 850 temps still low . . .i think there will be a massive fluctuation in every run . .:P

:pac:

thetonynator · 07-12-2010 11:27am

ECM has -8 850 temps for as early as next wednesday, but the GFS isn't giving that until 5 days later . . .

Iancar29 · 07-12-2010 3:35pm

What i have learnt in the last few weeks while mainly watching accuweather forecasts is that they always state that when the Jet stream starts to make a big dip , then a storm is likely to form .
gens-0-3-300.png?6

Its kinda broken up but ye , theres one there alright.

Gonzo · 07-12-2010 3:58pm

at this stage I want all those FI Charts to so pear shaped! We've had nearly 2 weeks of snow now and last thing we want is to be snow bound before chistmas!

Iancar29 · 07-12-2010 4:06pm

Gonzo wrote: »

at this stage I want all those FI Charts to so pear shaped! We've had nearly 2 weeks of snow now and last thing we want is to be snow bound before chistmas!

Sorry, but theres nothing better than a white christmas!

BEASTERLY · 07-12-2010 4:13pm

Gonzo wrote: »

at this stage I want all those FI Charts to so pear shaped! We've had nearly 2 weeks of snow now and last thing we want is to be snow bound before chistmas!

:eek:

odyboody · 07-12-2010 4:14pm

try telling that to the kids when santa hasnt been able to get any presents:(

Iancar29 · 07-12-2010 4:22pm

odyboody wrote: »

try telling that to the kids when santa hasnt been able to get any presents:(

Eh first day of considerable thaw was 2day, and i got all my shopping done, start to finish ... so ye , NO EXCUSES about the weather ! :P

delw · 10-12-2010 11:16pm

yes it FI but is this MT's predicted storm

gens-0-1-288.png?18

thetonynator · 11-12-2010 10:56am

It's ridiculous how similar the GFS, UKMO, and ECMWF are out to 144hrs, and the ecm and gfs well past that . . .

Winter FI Charts

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