Winter FI Charts

TheInquisitor

Never goin to happen, but if they did!!!!

Think its time for a Fantasy Island thread as the models are starting to pump out some tastes of the winter to come*.*FI charts NEVER amount to anything!

Might be fun just to have a thread of completly unrealistic, implausible and impossible charts because you'd never know... D

Beginning of some cooler times...?

maquiladora

18Z GFS has temps as low as -2 for for parts of the UK at T180. Heh.

MUSEIST

the only 100% guaranteed prediction I can make for the winter ahead is that there will be many orgasmic FI charts that slowly degrade and downgrade as time passes slowly breaking our hearts and crushing it into little pieces. :rolleyes::p

Kippure

If any one saw todays farming forecast on rte 1. The pressure charts show what are winter set up is roughly going to be like.

pauldry

So blizzards then?:)

nacho libre

Kippure wrote: »

If any one saw todays farming forecast on rte 1. The pressure charts show what are winter set up is roughly going to be like.

areas of low pressure to our northwest bringing rain, hail, sleet, and even some snow as the depressions move way???

TheInquisitor

Anyone else think this is a very interesting setup? You have the low in the East just after passing over scotland the the next low pushing down artic Air. Obviously not a hope of anything like sleet even but could put a decent chill in the air

nacho libre

it'll bring tons of snow.

Timistry

Anything like the weather porn the GFS was generating last year and we are in business! Some charts looks alomost identical to 1962 type events

desolate sun

Timistry wrote: »

weather porn

museist wrote:

many orgasmic FI charts

Hee hee! Ye weather people are mad!

Pangea

TheInquisitor wrote: »

Obviously not a hope of anything like sleet even

I dont know much about charts or the likes but i have often seen hail/sleet showers in august here in donegal and it did just that a few weeks ago here. Accompanied with big black dirty clouds.

TheInquisitor

There's a storm a brewin!!

WolfeIRE

maquiladora

TheInquisitor wrote: »

There's a storm a brewin!!

The best storms are always in FI! :P

I think it was last Nov the GFS was showing an epic storm with hurricane force winds at only 100ish hours away that had lots of people, including me, going :eek:, but it didn't pan out quite like that in the end! So I'd take anything at 240 hours with the biggest pinch of salt I could find.

Still though, it's fun to enter the season of 'virtual storms'.

TheInquisitor

nacho libre

TheInquisitor wrote: »

There's a storm a brewin!!

would that be the remnants of Lisa or some other tropical storm making its way over here?

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

would that be the remnants of Lisa or some other tropical storm making its way over here?

No, looks like a low swinging over from Canada.

maquiladora

Just for the laugh. The closest thing I could find to an early start to winter. :P :pac:

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

...... So I'd take anything at 240 hours with the biggest pinch of salt I could find.

Hey, go easy on that salt, we're going to need it all this winter!

TheInquisitor

maquiladora

Very deep in FI but exciting to see the GFS showing a brief early October cold period with -5 uppers extending down over Scotland. Snow possible in parts of Scotland if that came off.

Meanwhile the ECM is showing a period of very wet and windy, maybe even stormy conditions.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Meanwhile the ECM is showing a period of very wet and windy, maybe even stormy conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Su Campu

I assume 26th October is FI???!!!

maquiladora

12Z ECM FI is sticking with the same theme as the last run....





12Z NOGAPS shows something very similar at 144 hours.

Hmmmmm...

What do you think DE?

pauldry

So Im takin the barbie out on Oct 2nd

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM FI is sticking with the same theme as the last run....

What do you think DE?

Not overly encouraged by the trend to have slack lows sitting right on top of us Maq This seemed to happen quite a lot last winter too, which essentially kept any active weather running around the periphery of Ireland rather than over it. But early days yet, hopefully the next few runs will show low pressure centres passing to the north of south.

On a different note, the ECMWF seems keen over the last few runs to develop a wave depression close to Ireland towards the middle of the coming working week:



which is forecast to pump up more heavy rain over the eastern half of Ireland once again. Seems to be a common theme this September so far. Of course it may all change in later runs but could be one to keep an eye on.

maquiladora

Ferry to Holyhead might be a bit rough...

Deep Easterly

"Big wind a comin'



listen to the hummin'
Hurry up son, be quick, don't stall..
You know we can't be slow, take the kids and get below,
If we don't hurry, it'll surely get us all.."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhtHn3nkJlo

Well, not really that bad but this gem of a chart is only 348hrs out on the latest GFS run.

Time to batten down the hatches!

maquiladora

Special delivery for a Mr Deep Easterly? :P



:cool:

maquiladora

0Z ECM still sticking with the low pressure theme for next weekend. Looks like gales possible for the south of the country here?

maquiladora

It's FI Fun Time. :pac:

WolfeIRE

maquiladora wrote: »

It's FI Fun Time. :pac:

woohoo

TheInquisitor

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

It's FI Fun Time.

Here we go agaaaiiiiin!!!!!:pac:

TheInquisitor

So Close!



WTF??



OMG Savage!!!

Deep Easterly

TheInquisitor wrote: »

WTF??



OMG Savage!!!

Now that's what I call an easterly!!

nacho libre

So according to Jean Byrne on the late forecast there will be an interesting battle going on over Ireland in five days time between high pressure to the east and low pressure out in the Atlantic! Which will result in it being a tad windy from a southerly direction over Ireland.

maquiladora

Can you imagine if this was heading for us? :P



And now for something completely different :



Ensembles in FI, always entertaining.

MUSEIST

maquiladora wrote: »

Can you imagine if this was heading for us? :P

Yes, I really can:D

Deep Easterly

ECM tonight keeps the theme of an easterly developing in FI:

168hrs chart:



Could bring some very nice and pleasant weather but I have to say I am very annoyed that this sort of pattern never developed during the summer just gone. Would have brought some proper summer weather with a few proper storms thrown in. :mad:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM tonight keeps the theme of an easterly developing in FI:

168hrs chart:



Could bring some very nice and pleasant weather but I have to say I am very annoyed that this sort of pattern never developed during the summer just gone. Would have brought some proper summer weather with a few proper storms thrown in. :mad:

let's just hope this is a sign of things to come in a month or two.

redsunset wrote: »

While not being his winter forecast.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Joe b has this to say,


its fascinating to see what using the analog gives us for the winter and then applying the computer forecast gives us. Put it this way... for large parts of Europe, another year where the Global warming crowd is going to take a beating from the APPEARANCE of the weather is on the way!

The three years that stick out like a sore thumb are 1950-1951,1955-1956 and 1995-1996 for europe.

The main idea I have out for the winter is that there will be large scale chill again.

I believe that this is a colder than normal winter for a large part of europe, but I am torn as to where right now. I am going to research it and come up with the answer.

I just hope what you said earlier doesn't come to pass- that the nao is negative, but Britian is the buffer zone between the cold in Europe and the milder Atlantic air.

WolfeIRE

all this talk of another sustained cold winter period begs the question...are our roads authorities prepared in terms of grit and salt supplies? I would imagine not.

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

all this talk of another sustained cold winter period begs the question...are our roads authorities prepared in terms of grit and salt supplies? I would imagine not.

I sent a email to fingal county council ( trying to be all professional) talking to them about the high probability that another cold winter is just around the corner ( i added in some not so factual meteorological research results ) and was asking about the salt stocks compared to this time last year, and would we hav enought to suffice a another harsh cold spell.

I got an email back that my question was forwarded to the transportation department the other day, so ye im hoping theyll send me one back too, but ye... i hav a feeling they aint so prepared.

Iancar29

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM tonight keeps the theme of an easterly developing in FI:

168hrs chart:


Hey DE , just wondering , whats the sites that u get these maps from?

I wanna start studying them better and try to understand them more.

maquiladora

Way out in FI but GFS has 850 temps of -4 just about reaching us.

WolfeIRE

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hey DE , just wondering , whats the sites that u get these maps from?

I wanna start studying them better and try to understand them more.

here Ian.
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

Redsunset

WolfeIRE wrote: »

here Ian.
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

and here,
http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/

Iancar29

Cheers lads. :pac:

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

Cheers lads. :pac:

Hey Ian,

Redsunset and Wolfire are spot on with the links there!

The Icelandic site is probably the best I think. Although the charts only go out to about 5 days, or 144hrs, but if you tweek the image url,



you can go beyond.

For example, the image url of the chart above is

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_144.png

the forecast time is highlighted in bold, so you can change it up to 232hrs, in increments of 12hrs. Example:

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_168.png
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_180.png
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_192.png
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_204.png

Now you can get into FI territory!!!

Deep Easterly

Beautiful chart:



Could we be looking at our first 'deep easterly' of the year???

isle of man

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Beautiful chart:



Could we be looking at our first 'deep easterly' of the year???

so for somebody still learning,
what does that chart mean in the type of weather we would get