Winter FI Charts

WolfeIRE

maquiladora wrote: »

It's FI Fun Time. :pac:

woohoo

TheInquisitor

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

It's FI Fun Time.

Here we go agaaaiiiiin!!!!!:pac:

TheInquisitor

So Close!



WTF??



OMG Savage!!!

Deep Easterly

TheInquisitor wrote: »

WTF??



OMG Savage!!!

Now that's what I call an easterly!!

nacho libre

So according to Jean Byrne on the late forecast there will be an interesting battle going on over Ireland in five days time between high pressure to the east and low pressure out in the Atlantic! Which will result in it being a tad windy from a southerly direction over Ireland.

maquiladora

Can you imagine if this was heading for us? :P



And now for something completely different :



Ensembles in FI, always entertaining.

MUSEIST

maquiladora wrote: »

Can you imagine if this was heading for us? :P

Yes, I really can:D

Deep Easterly

ECM tonight keeps the theme of an easterly developing in FI:

168hrs chart:



Could bring some very nice and pleasant weather but I have to say I am very annoyed that this sort of pattern never developed during the summer just gone. Would have brought some proper summer weather with a few proper storms thrown in. :mad:

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM tonight keeps the theme of an easterly developing in FI:

168hrs chart:



Could bring some very nice and pleasant weather but I have to say I am very annoyed that this sort of pattern never developed during the summer just gone. Would have brought some proper summer weather with a few proper storms thrown in. :mad:

let's just hope this is a sign of things to come in a month or two.

redsunset wrote: »

While not being his winter forecast.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Joe b has this to say,


its fascinating to see what using the analog gives us for the winter and then applying the computer forecast gives us. Put it this way... for large parts of Europe, another year where the Global warming crowd is going to take a beating from the APPEARANCE of the weather is on the way!

The three years that stick out like a sore thumb are 1950-1951,1955-1956 and 1995-1996 for europe.

The main idea I have out for the winter is that there will be large scale chill again.

I believe that this is a colder than normal winter for a large part of europe, but I am torn as to where right now. I am going to research it and come up with the answer.

I just hope what you said earlier doesn't come to pass- that the nao is negative, but Britian is the buffer zone between the cold in Europe and the milder Atlantic air.

WolfeIRE

all this talk of another sustained cold winter period begs the question...are our roads authorities prepared in terms of grit and salt supplies? I would imagine not.

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

all this talk of another sustained cold winter period begs the question...are our roads authorities prepared in terms of grit and salt supplies? I would imagine not.

I sent a email to fingal county council ( trying to be all professional) talking to them about the high probability that another cold winter is just around the corner ( i added in some not so factual meteorological research results ) and was asking about the salt stocks compared to this time last year, and would we hav enought to suffice a another harsh cold spell.

I got an email back that my question was forwarded to the transportation department the other day, so ye im hoping theyll send me one back too, but ye... i hav a feeling they aint so prepared.

Iancar29

Deep Easterly wrote: »

ECM tonight keeps the theme of an easterly developing in FI:

168hrs chart:


Hey DE , just wondering , whats the sites that u get these maps from?

I wanna start studying them better and try to understand them more.

maquiladora

Way out in FI but GFS has 850 temps of -4 just about reaching us.

WolfeIRE

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hey DE , just wondering , whats the sites that u get these maps from?

I wanna start studying them better and try to understand them more.

here Ian.
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

Redsunset

WolfeIRE wrote: »

here Ian.
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

and here,
http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/

Iancar29

Cheers lads. :pac:

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

Cheers lads. :pac:

Hey Ian,

Redsunset and Wolfire are spot on with the links there!

The Icelandic site is probably the best I think. Although the charts only go out to about 5 days, or 144hrs, but if you tweek the image url,



you can go beyond.

For example, the image url of the chart above is

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_144.png

the forecast time is highlighted in bold, so you can change it up to 232hrs, in increments of 12hrs. Example:

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_168.png
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_180.png
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_192.png
http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/101004_0000_204.png

Now you can get into FI territory!!!

Deep Easterly

Beautiful chart:



Could we be looking at our first 'deep easterly' of the year???

isle of man

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Beautiful chart:



Could we be looking at our first 'deep easterly' of the year???

so for somebody still learning,
what does that chart mean in the type of weather we would get

nacho libre

isle of man wrote: »

so for somebody still learning,
what does that chart mean in the type of weather we would get

it means the west of ireland could have temperature in the high teens with a nice pleaseant south easterly/easterly breeze. if we get this kind of weather in two months, then you and people in the east of Ireland could well be seeing the white stuff.

Deep Easterly

isle of man wrote: »

so for somebody still learning,
what does that chart mean in the type of weather we would get

Nacho summed it up their nicely Isle of man. Essentially, a chart like that is would bring great weather with low humidities and some very nice sunsets/sunrises and a deeper colour to the sky in general too due to a dry haze. It is the weather of poets!

WolfeIRE

some dry and settled weather on the way from saturday onwards. Will gradually get cooler as we head towards the middle of the month when temps will only hit single figures during the daytime. Threat of nighttime frosts also increases towards the middle of the month as E to ESE winds dig in for the next two weeks.

Hopefully this trend of easterlies continues into the winter period.

maquiladora

12zGFS FI is showing sleet for Ulster on the 21st. :pac::D:pac:

I know, I know...deep in FI, but thats what this thread is for.



First time Ive seen that since last winter.

maquiladora

FI land again. Snow on high ground possible in the north 11 days from now if this chart came off :

pauldry

Not very fantasy at all. Boardies, Farmers, Radios, Weathers, TVs and Bridie in the bank are all saying it will be very cold mid month onwards. Wont be surprised to see sleet. or hail at least!

WolfeIRE

MONDAY WEEK FORECAST (10 days time)
Nice spell of settled weather on the way, getting progressively colder. Deep Easterly is getting stuck in early on this year.

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

MONDAY WEEK FORECAST (10 days time)
Nice spell of settled weather on the way, getting progressively colder. Deep Easterly is getting stuck in early on this year.

Encouraging. By the way am i wrong in thinking the ECM model still tends to be the most accurate model of the lot?

WolfeIRE

nacho libre wrote: »

Encouraging. By the way am i wrong in thinking the ECM model still tends to be the most accurate model of the lot?

yep Nacho. GSF can be a little more exciteable than ECM. Having said that very few models get it spot on this far out. Unless of course you call the donegal postman a model.

Iancar29

IM gonna save this image and every 3 days look bac at this one see how much the models hav changed