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Audi CEO: sale of ICE cars will collapse in 2026

135

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Yes. The latest gen batteries are based on sodium. Don't use any lithium or dodgy cobalt. Sodium, yes, table salt basically. Will be dirt cheap too, even cheaper than the current gen of LiFePO4, which itself has already gone done well below $100 per kWh, which can be cycled 10k times (less than $0.01 per kWh)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    You still banging on about nuclear @Mad_Lad?

    That horse has bolted many years ago. It's too complex and too expensive. There will be no more significant new nuclear installs planned anywhere in the world from now. All we need is solar, wind and battery. The latter can have many different shapes, like pumped hydro, chemical, interconnectors, etc. including the production of hydrogen



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    No need even for lithium for batteries. Sodium, yes table salt, is where the cheapest batteries are at. Not some future bullsh1t either, you can buy them right now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 40,027 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    “I wouldn't be interested in EV again unless there was a super charging solid state battery with at least 150 Kwh and a price of no more than 25K lol”

    That’s completely fine then. Nobody has a noose around your neck but your in the EV forum. Maybe you didn’t realise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,198 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Don't know what your infatuation is with 2nd car talk, you got burnt on PCP and depreciation apparently and you are sore about it. Just buy out your id3 and ride out the depreciation curve.

    I'm heading to Mayo from Dublin in a little while for a weekend away with herself and 2 labradors in an Etron with smaller range than your id3. It's not sitting at 100% at the moment either. Our 2nd car is also an EV with more or less same range as our 1st, I could do it in either of them without any hassle. Etron better motorway cruiser and the dogs have space to run around in the boot.



  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,086 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Mod Note: Please keep all non motoring impact of EVs (e.g. resource mining) to the relevant thread, posts moved



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Mad_Lad


    because they are ideal 2nd cars for the majority, for enthusiasts, that's another matter, been there myself. most people don't want to sit at chargers all the time they want to go on a decent spin. What part of that do people not understand.

    I didn't get burned on PCP I got burned on depreciation, that only applies if i go to trade it, it doesn't matter whether I bought it outright or got it on HP. The outcome is the same. But I know the idea for you is to make it appear like "pcp" has made me somewhat anti EV.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,692 ✭✭✭maidhc


    I have read this thread with interest. I thought you were being balanced and knowledgeable.

    It’s weird that because it is an “ev forum” you can only say blindly positive things about EVs or get unhinged comments back at you. I wish people would stop.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Mad_Lad


    Thanks, yes, It's funny because the EV section on boards came about to keep me away from the ICE threads from talking about electric cars maybe 15 or 16 years ago (I left boards around a year ago and recently came back) when the Leaf was a tida test mule. Back then I got into the tech from building crazy powerful electric bikes, the torque had me addicted. But there was no place for me on Boards.ie to talk openly and freely without constantly having to fend off trolls and downright bullies which was backed up by mods by having me banned from threads ( for trolling hahaha) But funny enough some of those people are here now on the other side of the fence and will bash me for talking against them in any way, funny that !

    I got a lifetime ban from the Cycling threads for talking about DIY ebike building, yeah, unbelievable, all because some cycling purists got highly offended.

    I could talk a lot more about what I think about it all but no point here not the time or place but anyone can PM me.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭omri


    my next car will have 4.4l ice, ev maybe as second car for city driving



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Mad_Lad




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 692 ✭✭✭kaahooters




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,276 ✭✭✭RainInSummer




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,699 ✭✭✭omri


    for ev used tesla/taycan/etron



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,496 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    because they are ideal 2nd cars for the majority, for enthusiasts, that's another matter, been there myself. most people don't want to sit at chargers all the time they want to go on a decent spin. What part of that do people not understand.

    They are still a bit away from being ideal 2nd cars for the majority.

    Pre COVID wd were a two car family, one 7 seater (that we need as a family of six) and a second mainly for short journeys but also for occasional 100k + ones, the one I had pre COVID was a 15 year old Fiesta, prior to that a 15 year old Skoda.

    The Fiesta cost me €800 , the Skoda 6 years earlier I got for definitely less than 2k, I can't recall.

    For me cars are functional first and foremost, as long as they are reliable and in some way comfortable I don't care what they look like.

    Anyway with working from home we got rid of the second car.

    We have survived with one car but having a second would be handy.

    But as much as I'd love to take the plunge with an EV there is no way I could afford one.

    On a quick DD search the only second hand EVs under €4,000 are 10 years old Leafs.

    And even though the prices of second hand ICEs has gone through the roof in the last few years there are still lots of options below €2000.

    So as a family that would traditionally try to buy the second car with cash or savings, €4k for a Leaf is really stretching the budget.

    Im sure we are not unique in this way.

    The benefits of an EV might be idea for a second car, but the affordability is still not there for many to make the change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    There's a Fluence on DD for €2,000 asking, you'd probably get it for €1,500. The fuel / tax / insurance / maintenance saving alone would mean the car would pay for itself within a year.

    The fact that the car hasn't sold is proof that the vast majority in the market for cheap bangernomics motoring are ignorant about EVs, or even afraid of them…



  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭DrPsychia


    I'm more inclined to believe people wouldn't opt for the fluence because of lack of independent specialists to repair the EV specifics if something goes wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    You don't seem to get the idea behind bangernomics. You buy cheaply and if there is anything going wrong, you dump the car and buy another one 😂

    Have a look in the dedicated bangernomics thread, you will get the idea:

    In the case of the Fluence, you would get almost your entire purchase price back from someone interested in just the battery



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭creedp


    For me the main reason not to buy that Fluence or an old Leaf as a 2nd car is I'd need it to reasonavly regularly do 60 to 100km return trips and I've suffered long enough in a degraded Leaf to never want to inflict that on another especially on a cold wet winters day! I just couldn't depend on it to coverenough of the journeys I needed it for.

    Obviously a great option if only used for short journeys.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Looks like Rich modified Mad_Lad's BMW i3 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,496 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    There are 5 BEVs between €1,000 and €4,000 right now on DD.

    Yes, 5.

    Meanwhile there are almost 7,000 ICEs in the same price range.

    The market for the BEV as a reasonably priced second car is still a long way away.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    The youngest of which is 11 years old and the oldest is 12. There's another 13 year old that I suspect will drop below the 4k mark soon enough, but what's important to note is these cars are very much close to the first introduction of BEVs in Ireland. It's very hard to find stats on BEV sales back then, but as an indicative figure, there were 58 sold in 2013. 2012 was a better year, but still only 192 by November that year. So those five cars represent roughly 5 out of a total of 250 or 2%.

    Using the same criteria <€4k (2012-2013) petrol and diesel cars, you get 646 cars from a total car sales from those years of ~140k it would work out to 0.5%.

    So although you can say that the stock of reasonably priced second car BEVs is tiny, it represents a far higher percentage of the new stock of the time compared to ICE vehicles. So survival rate is potentially better by a factor of 4.

    This is just a snapshot and the small numbers involved make this a very fuzzy stat. But nonetheless interesting. Also worth noting that if you just look for BEVs from those years without a price cap, you get 20 (8%). A similar exercise with petrol and diesel you get 6.9k (4.7%).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    And as I keep saying, a €2-3k EV will be far cheaper to own than a petrol / diesel banger you get from someone for free

    It's staggering how much ignorance there still is about EVs. I guess people are really afraid of change and are unaware of the benefits. Nearly everyone I talk to in public who doesn't own an EV, think they are not the future. It is incredible. This is 2024, not 2014 when these things weren't so crystal clear back then



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Disinformation works. You only have to look at the last referendum campaign to see that. Intelligent people arguing in the weeds about the difference between "strive" and "endeavour". As I said to one, strive means you'll break a sweat, endeavour means you'll get to it after lunch. An entirely pointless distinction in the greater scheme of things, but it got people going down a rabbit hole. The same with EVs, there's been one distraction after another, the latest being "some other technology just over the horizon that will make EV technology redundant". All to keep the oil wells pumping.

    Anyway, I found that exercise interesting. Would be great if we could get a better picture of just how many of that era of BEVs has survived to this day.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,496 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    It's nothing to do with ignorance.

    The market for EVs as second cars for a reasonable price is just not there yet.

    There are 5 on DD for under €4k.

    To a lot of people €4k is a lot of money to be spending on a second car.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,691 ✭✭✭✭fits


    and yet there are solar panels appearing on every second house. It’s hard to understand what’s going on with EVs.

    Arguably people would save a lot more switching to EV. Especially us country folk with high mileage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Big fan of solar panels myself. And agreed you see them more and more thankfully. And anecdotally, more than half of the 241 cars in my estate are now full EVs. Things are changing but I guess the lower end of the market is always slower than the upper end. Which is a pity, as you say the poorer people could save a lot of money here. It always frustrates me no end, when they don't 😒



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    point



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    I don't understand your point. There are cheap EVs for sale that cost less to own than petrol / diesel cars. Sure there are only a few of them, but they are for sale. You can buy one if you want one. But they don't seem to sell particularly quickly either. It's not like people are fighting over them. They should, but they don't! Because they are ignorant…



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Another one of my neighbours finally bought an EV recently while other neighbours have also upgraded from PHEV to EV last year. These neighbours are a retired couple, hardly ever go anywhere further than 50 km from home and they also have a second car, an ICE. They had already figured out that an EV would work them well but still wanted to have a chat with me. I reaffirmed them that it was good fit for their usage case and that they should just get a charging station with a fixed charging cable installed.

    They scrapped a well used 2007 1.6 petrol after owning it for about 15 years. I suspect their new 2 yo e208 will serve them as well into 2030's. Fingers crossed. They could have bought a cheaper EV still but as they always keep a car for a very long time this almost new EV made sense really.

    Another neighbour was very interested in PV already last year. He had a chat with me about how the EV batteries will only last for a short time and will cost tens of k€ to replace but that next year there will be be a really cheap EV batteries. I rebutted saying that we have a 8 yo second EV that has well over 100k on a clock and it still has the same range as our 9 year old first EV had when it was brand new. And the other more modern EV we have is still at 95% SOH after 3 years and 75k and will probably last for 20 years and 300000 km before the range drops too much. I think that got him thinking but we shall see.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭creedp


    In fairness I dont think there a need for that last sentence for the want of a better word! One of the main reasons people wont buy these cars is they are very compromised owing to their short range. Grand for a 2nd/3rd car if you know you'll never need it for more than 40-60km in any one day during the winter, otherwise they are a complete pita requiring 100% soc every morning and a top up during the day. For eg I dropped kids to school this morning used 7% of L30 range. Then had to do a 30km journey to pick up a item and returned with 17% SOC. I then had to plug in for a couple of hours before heading off again to do some other pick ups etc. Now normally Id get away with a full charge overnight but the problem with short range cars is that they have no capacity to deal with the unexpected which for many is a no no!

    So while some people consider it ignorance, others just see a car that doesnt fit their use case. However, IMO used EVs from about 2019/20 onwards will make very good value used options in the years ahead, as even with slightly degraged batteries they will have still have 250km+ range even on a bad day which is far more attractive and flexible that a degraded but cheap 60km range Leaf.

    As Ive said before early Leafs are one of the main reasons people I know are delaying switching to a used EV. Im sure people will harp on nostalgically about them in the future but really they represent the past in terms of EV motoring. Long live the early Leafs, great cars pity about their batteries



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,496 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    My point is that even though the idea of an EV as a second car is desirable the market for them doesn't exist right now.

    It will be when the 2019/2020 become available on the second hand market at reasonable prices that there might be greater take-up, but that will still be a few years away.

    I'd love an EV as a second car but there is only 1 car on all of DD within my budget, compared to a multitude of ICEs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Ah I know they are not for everyone and you simply should NOT buy one if it doesn't meet your requirements. But the average car does 35km in Ireland. The average 2nd family car does less than that. So that means for thousands and thousands of familie in the market for a cheap 2nd family car, that never does more than 50km or so in a day, these would be perfect. Yet very few people are buying them. And I think igorant is the perfect word. Sounds harsh, but the very definition of how @sh81722 just described his neighbour is ignorant. Which literally means not knowing, being completely misinformed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,862 ✭✭✭creedp


    I agree that they suit certain use cases, especially people looking for a cheap second car in a reasonably urban setting. My young lad is looking to get a car and Ive offerred him the Leaf as a starter and he rather eloquently responded "Fcuk no, sure where could I go in that!!" 😂 In fairness he's been caught out on more that a few occasions in the past where the other car was away and the Leaf didnt have enough range to get to where he wanted to be dropped.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,275 ✭✭✭✭josip


    We found the EV no less convenient driving through Europe last year than the diesel. We managed the exact same legs as during 2021 which was mainly driving due to Covid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 46,583 ✭✭✭✭Mitch Connor


    Friends of mine drove from Ireland to France to Slovakia in their EV last summer, no issues.

    If I could afford to buy a new car tomorrow I'd buy an all electric car without hisitation. I bought a plug in hybrid for herself a year and a half ago or so and I regret it - once the electric power is gone you are lugging round dead weight. Wish we'd gone fully electric on that one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Mad_Lad


    Delighted, wouldn't be my idea of a fun trip but glad people are committed so much to saving the Earth. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    That's typical from most PHEV owners I have spoken to and who are honest. People were afraid the step from diesel to pure EV was too big. But definely next time!

    They like the EV bit but then they suffer because they have almost non existent range while having to continously plug in. Literally the worst of both worlds. Fine of course if you bought a cheap second hand PHEV, but I am talking about people who bought brand new and who could have bought a pure BEV and would even have ended up with lower total cost of ownership. And now they want one but have to wait until the next time they can afford to buy a new car



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,198 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    The market for short range EVs is so so small. Even at sub 5k.

    And the type of person that does small mileage to suit them is only putting a few quid of petrol into their ICE every week.

    I was only tipping around today and I did 80kms

    Happens quite a bit and the KMs add up.

    I didn't go more than 10km from my house at any stage

    Lucan celbridge ballyfermot drimnagh parkwest

    2 of the trips were unplanned but I have a 300km + EV so it's fine.

    Id be very very close to maxing out an old leaf. I wouldn't recommend them to anyone it won't be long before you're caught out. Not everyone does this driving like I did but I wouldn't part with 5k for something so restricted myself.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    "not everyone does driving like this"

    They sure don't. I'd say 40-50% of second family car in say the Dublin area never do more than 30-40km per day. For those people even the most degraded Leaf / Fluence is a perfect buy. For you it is unsuitable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,198 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Further degradation, which is proven in these cars already, renders them useless.

    They are about as niche as it gets as a purchase. They're almost enthusiasts cars at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Nonsense. Most families in my now mature estate / cul de sac (Dublin suburb) now have 2 or even 3 cars (teenagers / young adults). I know them all personally after being in the house for 25 years and even early Fluence / Leaf with 60km range would be perfect for most of their non-main cars as these are only ever used for commute / learning to drive / driving to college / shops, etc.

    But of course this doesn't suit plenty of other people, not denying that for a second.

    The reality is that most people - for whom these cars would be perfect - simply don't know these cars suit them, they think the batteries are going to explode tomorrow or the range be down to less than 10km and then it costs €20k to replace them. And tomorrow there be much better cars, hydrogen probably or just diesel like they have been buying since 2008 and everybody will have soon forgotten about EVs…





  • whatever about the leaf the fluence is not an appealing car, it’s old looking and probably too large for the 3rd car you keep harping on about. Who wants an oversized car for what will likely be used for popping here and there locally. Why not consider that angle instead of calling everyone who won’t buy the dented fluence on DoneDeal ignorant!


    there is a reason Lada Rivas were not a huge hit, you could save loads of money buying them but it’s a lada. Same goes for everything else like clothes or food, it’s not all about going for the cheapest thing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    You're very right. My kids are feeling that even a Leaf is too big for them to learn to drive in. Simple fact is that the only extremely cheap EVs out there are Leaf, Fluence and the i-Miev triplets. The latter are pretty dire. Zoes are nice but usually a lot more expensive, well out of bangernomics territory. I still kick myself for not picking up a 2016 Zoe for just over €2k a few months ago, but I already had 4 cars at that stage 😂

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 771 ✭✭✭GSBellew


    What drugs are you on to come to the conclusion that the EV survival rate is higher based solely on cars for sale on Donedeal v's cars registered in a given year?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,375 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    The same ones you're on that has you miss this presumably: "This is just a snapshot and the small numbers involved make this a very fuzzy stat."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Mad_Lad




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65,936 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Yep. Much bigger new petrol tank in the frunk. Saw the episode and thought of you 😁

    Rich needed to drive it home (1000 miles or something) and didn't want to be bothered having to stop every 150 miles or so or whatever the combined range of battery + petrol was. But the real reason of course is because he can / because showcasing that sort of stuff is what his channel is all about.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Mad_Lad


    Solar PV doesn't heavily depreciate or cost 40+ K and can offer real savings.

    No one will save if driving a current ICE vs new 40+ K EV cheaper ones usually too limited in range and recharge time.

    New cars in general are gone too expensive offering less, diesels hard to get, petrol very expensive so people are having to hang on to their older Diesels and ICE in general as new cars are too expensive.

    Mechanics are working flat out, very hard to get a mechanic in Carlow Town these days that won't put you in a queue of over a month.



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