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Audi CEO: sale of ICE cars will collapse in 2026

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Time will tell, none of us have a crystal ball but if I had an even money bet as to whether he's right or wrong, I'd be heavily leaning towards wrong. I love my EVs as do a lot of us here but it's going to take a big taxation swing to do it in my opinion. And he has no control over taxation.

    Possibly taking the chance of some free advertising and media attention for his company



  • Registered Users Posts: 64,710 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    He'll be proven right. If I were a betting man, I would bet serious money on that.

    At scale EVs are already cheaper to manufacture. And thus cost less to own for consumers due to greater longevity and lower maintenance. And in a world that is commited to emit / burn less, it is most likely that electricity will become cheaper relatively to fossil fuels, making an EV increasingly cheaper to fuel by comparison

    On top of that, there is a tsunami of cheap Chinese EVs coming worldwide, incumbent ICE manufacturers don't stand a chance unless they are already very much shifted over. And they can forget about the cheaper end of the market altogether



  • Registered Users Posts: 64,710 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    BTW for any of you who mistakenly think I am some sort of EVangelist, only interested in electric cars, I'm off to the UK in the morning to pick up a classic Lotus with a turbocharged petrol engine 😂



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,984 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    None of us have a crystal ball, but you'd have to have some balls to think you know more about the motor industry than the CEO of one of the biggest manufacturers in Europe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 764 ✭✭✭ColemanY2K


    That reads like AI bullshit plus it got the name of CEO wrong.

    🌞 7.79kWp PV System. Comprised of 4.92kWp Tilting Ground Mount + 2.87kWp @ 27°, azimuth 180°, West Waterford 🌞



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    I don't think even he believes that there will be a collapse. It's his job to promote his companies products and talk them up. I don't care what job he has, he doesn't know what consumers will do with confidence. Policymakers can affect consumers, he can't. I affected it in work by bringing in an EV only company policy, get a new EV or keep your old company car forever. If staff had the choice, which consumers have now, only 1 apart from me wanted an EV over a new diesel.

    The next CEO of an equally big company could say the opposite tomorrow. Try get a room full of economists to agree on future markets, it won't happen.

    Some of them will be right at certain points.

    It's going to take a big U Turn from where we are now. I don't see it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭amdaley28


    Sale of EV's in March down 16% on March 2023.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Is that Ireland? We are a small market but from what I believe, and I'm open to correction, much of Europe is the same at the moment.

    It will swing towards EV, but I think he's wildly optimistic in his prediction of the pace of change.

    Just my opinion, everyone is welcome to theirs as well



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,526 ✭✭✭Allinall


    despite what might be thought, IMO the vast majority of new car buyers are not overly cost conscious.

    That will keep the sales of ICE cars ahead of EVs for a good while yet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,386 ✭✭✭NSAman


    Until AUDI etc figure out the long term plan in relation to charging and infrastructure and the battery technology, I dont think a complete collapse of ICE is going to happen shortly.

    There is FAR too much confusion in the market place globally at the moment for EV's to be successful completely. Ford et al have cancelled/courtailed the production of vehicles, Mercedes in the US is seeing a 20-25% discounting of EV models (which in fairness are a crazy price).

    There are so many reports of new battery technologies coming out, new technology from Toyota etc, it is difficult to actually know what to do.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,984 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    What the CEO of a car manufacturer sees is the input costs in their vehicles. Once battery technology gets cheaper (and it already has), the cost of manufacturing EVs has to be cheaper than ICE vehicles. And assembly gets simpler, less parts required, so less logistics too. Mightn't happen in 2026, but it could well start then.

    None of us have that kind of overview, so dismissing it out of hand is a tad hubristic.

    The fact that companies can start manufacturing EVs from scratch in just a few years should be proof of that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,821 ✭✭✭Gusser09


    So driving will only be for the wealthy then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Daveq


    To be fair the article says he "anticipates as early as 2026" not "will collapse in 2026"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    That's not what he said in the slightest though, he is talking about consumer demand collapsing for ICE cars. So I think he's talking out of school there, a bit egotistical of him to tell people what they want. He can control supply of Audi cars, he can't control what people want to buy from them and their many competitors.

    Some mainstream EVs are on a par now with ICE pricewise, but they're not selling very well.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,984 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Why do you think consumer demand for a product falls then?



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,300 ✭✭✭✭dastardly00


    The article doesn't cite any quotes from the Audi CEO or reference an interview or press release etc. 🤔



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,929 ✭✭✭✭Ash.J.Williams


    that article is made up



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,984 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    The company’s CEO, Gerhard Dorn, asserts that Audi is fully prepared for this transition and is committed to becoming predominantly electric by 2032.

    It's not in quotes, but they're hardly making it up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs




  • Registered Users Posts: 28,076 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    I can see it happening here. Not on the mainland or US though.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,300 ✭✭✭✭dastardly00


    Well they have the name of Audi CEO incorrect for starters



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,984 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Exactly. And cheaper is always more attractive. All other things being equal.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,846 ✭✭✭tabby aspreme


    Could you explain about the greater longevity, I bought a 9 year old diesel car last July with 180000 km, It currently has 214000 km and I'm confident it will be reliable and capable of 1000km per week for many more years of trouble free driving with proper maintenance, I don't think I would get the same longevity with an EV.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    You could be right. His name is different in the video than the article. Fake news here



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    But all other things are far from equal in ICE v EV.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,443 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Traffic to website is a great reason to make up stories. And getting his name wrong is a good way of wriggling out of trouble for it



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,984 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    All other thing meaning same spec, finish, range etc.

    You've an A5 and an etron GT side by side and the etron is (say) 10-15k cheaper. The only difference is one is an ICE and the other is an EV. What's stopping you buying the cheaper car?



  • Registered Users Posts: 28,076 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Would you buy some of the current EV's in 9yrs time with 12mts manufacturer battery warranty remaining or a diesel. That's what people in 2033 will have to decide.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,984 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's just very bad editing. It's not even that new a story, first announced in June 21 by the then CEO. But updated recently.

    https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1142615_audi-committed-to-launching-last-gas-powered-car-in-2026



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