Audi CEO: sale of ICE cars will collapse in 2026

unkel

I've been saying this for a few years now, but I wasn't expecting the CEO of a major car maker not just to silenty accept this reality, let alone going on the record to say it. Not for at least another year when this will be very obvious to all but those with their head deep in the sand

https://www.webpronews.com/audi-anticipates-the-accelerated-demise-of-fossil-fuel-cars/

Buddy Bubs

Time will tell, none of us have a crystal ball but if I had an even money bet as to whether he's right or wrong, I'd be heavily leaning towards wrong. I love my EVs as do a lot of us here but it's going to take a big taxation swing to do it in my opinion. And he has no control over taxation.

Possibly taking the chance of some free advertising and media attention for his company

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967496#Comment_121967496

He'll be proven right. If I were a betting man, I would bet serious money on that.

At scale EVs are already cheaper to manufacture. And thus cost less to own for consumers due to greater longevity and lower maintenance. And in a world that is commited to emit / burn less, it is most likely that electricity will become cheaper relatively to fossil fuels, making an EV increasingly cheaper to fuel by comparison

On top of that, there is a tsunami of cheap Chinese EVs coming worldwide, incumbent ICE manufacturers don't stand a chance unless they are already very much shifted over. And they can forget about the cheaper end of the market altogether

unkel

BTW for any of you who mistakenly think I am some sort of EVangelist, only interested in electric cars, I'm off to the UK in the morning to pick up a classic Lotus with a turbocharged petrol engine 😂

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967496#Comment_121967496

None of us have a crystal ball, but you'd have to have some balls to think you know more about the motor industry than the CEO of one of the biggest manufacturers in Europe.

ColemanY2K

That reads like AI bullshit plus it got the name of CEO wrong.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967555#Comment_121967555

I don't think even he believes that there will be a collapse. It's his job to promote his companies products and talk them up. I don't care what job he has, he doesn't know what consumers will do with confidence. Policymakers can affect consumers, he can't. I affected it in work by bringing in an EV only company policy, get a new EV or keep your old company car forever. If staff had the choice, which consumers have now, only 1 apart from me wanted an EV over a new diesel.

The next CEO of an equally big company could say the opposite tomorrow. Try get a room full of economists to agree on future markets, it won't happen.

Some of them will be right at certain points.

It's going to take a big U Turn from where we are now. I don't see it.

amdaley28

Sale of EV's in March down 16% on March 2023.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967620#Comment_121967620

Is that Ireland? We are a small market but from what I believe, and I'm open to correction, much of Europe is the same at the moment.

It will swing towards EV, but I think he's wildly optimistic in his prediction of the pace of change.

Just my opinion, everyone is welcome to theirs as well

Allinall

despite what might be thought, IMO the vast majority of new car buyers are not overly cost conscious.

That will keep the sales of ICE cars ahead of EVs for a good while yet.

NSAman

Until AUDI etc figure out the long term plan in relation to charging and infrastructure and the battery technology, I dont think a complete collapse of ICE is going to happen shortly.

There is FAR too much confusion in the market place globally at the moment for EV's to be successful completely. Ford et al have cancelled/courtailed the production of vehicles, Mercedes in the US is seeing a 20-25% discounting of EV models (which in fairness are a crazy price).

There are so many reports of new battery technologies coming out, new technology from Toyota etc, it is difficult to actually know what to do.

prawnsambo

What the CEO of a car manufacturer sees is the input costs in their vehicles. Once battery technology gets cheaper (and it already has), the cost of manufacturing EVs has to be cheaper than ICE vehicles. And assembly gets simpler, less parts required, so less logistics too. Mightn't happen in 2026, but it could well start then.

None of us have that kind of overview, so dismissing it out of hand is a tad hubristic.

The fact that companies can start manufacturing EVs from scratch in just a few years should be proof of that.

Gusser09

So driving will only be for the wealthy then.

Daveq

To be fair the article says he "anticipates as early as 2026" not "will collapse in 2026"

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967719#Comment_121967719

That's not what he said in the slightest though, he is talking about consumer demand collapsing for ICE cars. So I think he's talking out of school there, a bit egotistical of him to tell people what they want. He can control supply of Audi cars, he can't control what people want to buy from them and their many competitors.

Some mainstream EVs are on a par now with ICE pricewise, but they're not selling very well.

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967752#Comment_121967752

Why do you think consumer demand for a product falls then?

dastardly00

The article doesn't cite any quotes from the Audi CEO or reference an interview or press release etc. 🤔

Ash.J.Williams

that article is made up

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967770#Comment_121967770

The company’s CEO, Gerhard Dorn, asserts that Audi is fully prepared for this transition and is committed to becoming predominantly electric by 2032.

It's not in quotes, but they're hardly making it up.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967760#Comment_121967760

When there's a more attractive alternative

drunkmonkey

I can see it happening here. Not on the mainland or US though.

dastardly00

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967789#Comment_121967789

Well they have the name of Audi CEO incorrect for starters

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967794#Comment_121967794

Exactly. And cheaper is always more attractive. All other things being equal.

tabby aspreme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967518#Comment_121967518

Could you explain about the greater longevity, I bought a 9 year old diesel car last July with 180000 km, It currently has 214000 km and I'm confident it will be reliable and capable of 1000km per week for many more years of trouble free driving with proper maintenance, I don't think I would get the same longevity with an EV.

Buddy Bubs

You could be right. His name is different in the video than the article. Fake news here

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967770#Comment_121967770

Well spotted. Think it's nonsense myself now

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967803#Comment_121967803

But all other things are far from equal in ICE v EV.

Buddy Bubs

Traffic to website is a great reason to make up stories. And getting his name wrong is a good way of wriggling out of trouble for it

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967823#Comment_121967823

All other thing meaning same spec, finish, range etc.

You've an A5 and an etron GT side by side and the etron is (say) 10-15k cheaper. The only difference is one is an ICE and the other is an EV. What's stopping you buying the cheaper car?

drunkmonkey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967805#Comment_121967805

Would you buy some of the current EV's in 9yrs time with 12mts manufacturer battery warranty remaining or a diesel. That's what people in 2033 will have to decide.

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967829#Comment_121967829

Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's just very bad editing. It's not even that new a story, first announced in June 21 by the then CEO. But updated recently.

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1142615_audi-committed-to-launching-last-gas-powered-car-in-2026

Flinty997

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967530#Comment_121967530

Sweet machine.

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967891#Comment_121967891

We’re fully committed to electric mobility,” he said. “But if there are waves or fluctuations in the transition we can react to them.”

The plan was first announced in 2021 by former CEO Markus Duesmann, who Döllner replaced last year. Other automakers, such as Mercedes-Benz, announced similar plans at the time but now intend to offer vehicles equipped with internal-combustion engines well into the next decade.

Nothing there sounds very promising to me for a collapse

tabby aspreme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967869#Comment_121967869

Mmmmm, a lot of known unknowns, if I still need to pull a trailer in 2033, it will have to be a diesel

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967913#Comment_121967913

Lol. EVs have far more torque than diesels do. Mine has over 500ft/lb.

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967909#Comment_121967909

Did you miss the bit where he said they'd launch their last ICE model in 2026?

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967853#Comment_121967853

Too many hypotheticals there to be a true reflection of reality. Range and refuelling/recharging are not anywhere near equal nor are they likely to be enough to cause a collapse in ICE demand.

And where are you getting an Etron 15k cheaper than an A5?

Where I can see it is in Q8 diesel v Q8 Etron, the Etron is cheaper in Ireland anyway because the diesel has been taxed into oblivion.

Remember were debating a collapse in 2026 as claimed in the article. That's 21 months away. And it's ridiculously fanciful.

Flinty997

Yeah, can't see it. There's too many hurdles to be overcome in that time frame.

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967926#Comment_121967926

Not sure why I bother when you don't even read what I wrote.

They're cheaper because the costs of manufacturing and logistics are cheaper. Just enumerate all the components that go into an ICE and compare with an EV. Even at the basic level. Inlet and exhaust systems - no. Fuel management systems, pumps, filters, pre-heaters - no, Exhaust management - no. The list goes on. Then take the engine and all its very expensive components compared to an electric motor. Add in a gearbox. Each one of those are massively expensive, but the deniers keep bleating on "but the batteries". It's hilarious.

And batteries are going to get cheaper very soon. New technologies like Aluminium Graphene are already ramping up with the intention of becoming directly swappable with existing tech. All while the current battery tech is getting cheaper too.

ozmo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967596#Comment_121967596

Spot on… (link to tool used)

Buddy Bubs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967970#Comment_121967970

Don't know why I bother is the worst type of response when someone disagrees with you. I did read what you wrote.

And they're not cheaper. Simpler, but not cheaper. Remember they're still subsidised by governments to get uptake.

New technologies have to be paid for by recouping R&D costs, someone has to pay for that.

I've got 2 EVs outside at the moment, I'm not a denier.

Article has been outed as AI now also. I knew it sounded nonsensical.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967596#Comment_121967596

Wrong name for the CEO is fairly dodgy alright, but you would have thought if AI, that would at least get basic facts like that right.

I do admit I saw this in a YT video today, did a quick google and posted up the result. I didn't do any fact checking or anything. Apologies if this article turns out to be completely made up 😐️

JVince

Article is possibly made up, but new battery technology which is due to go into mass production next year will give standard range of 700-1000 km

Once that becomes embedded into EVs, the market will surge.

As for 10 year old ev in 2034. If priced right it will sell, just as any item. In many cases it will be a first car or the 2nd car in a household, just as many 10 year old ice cars are today.

I do about 35-40k a year. Almost certain to go for ev next car due to the much lower cost.

prawnsambo

Lads, the internet is out there to confirm or deny possible made up stories. And this one may have been written by an AI, but it's based on an actual interview from Automotive News Europe. It's also carried elsewhere but ANE is referenced. The above jokers may have wanted to run this as if it was their own (and it's brought them to the top of the Google search), so used AI to disguise its origins.

The article is reserved for subscribers, but I have my ways.

Does Audi still plan to phase out the sale of combustion engines in Europe and North America by 2033?
Yes, it stays that way. We will position ourselves well with a new generation of all-electric models, combustion engines and plug-in hybrids, and we will be able to act flexibly if necessary. But I don't think that will be necessary.

Why not?
We will see significantly reduced sales volumes for combustion engines as early as 2026, so that the trick for us is an intelligent portfolio streamlining. Otherwise, the volumes per vehicle will be so low that it is no longer feasible, especially for suppliers. We are already standardizing components, but we will gradually leave certain segments and body styles for combustion-engine cars. Anything else would not make economic sense.

ColemanY2K

Bloody AI eh…I could smell something was fishy with the language in the article. At least there's a grain a truth to the story.

There's some bloody exciting EVs on the market at the moment with ever more impressive models launching all the time. Can't wait to make the move to be honest.

prawnsambo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967805#Comment_121967805

You only have to look at Done Deal to see that there are almost 100 EVs for sale that are nine years or older. And back then they were a tiny segment of the market. Only 420 were sold in 2016 (can't find figures from before then, but they must have been miniscule).

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058344716/audi-ceo-sale-of-ice-cars-will-collapse-in-2026

It’s an interesting thought by this CEO but I’d like a few more stats:

1. how many cars are sold globally every year?
   
2. What percentage of those are EV currently?
   
3. How many tonnes of precious metal are used to go into the CURRENT volume of EVs produced.
   
4. How many more tonnes of precious metal would we have to produce to phase out, or see a collapse of, the fossil fuel cars by 2026?
   

XsApollo

deleted

Hoboo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121967555#Comment_121967555

Absolutely no bias or self serving statements ever come from a company CEO. They want you to know the truth, regardless of the goals of their business strategy.

MojoMaker

lol

electricus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121968605#Comment_121968605

on 3 and 4, ICE vehicles are likely to include more precious metals (rhodium, iridium, and platinum) because of the requirement for a catalytic converter. But all cars include them in electronic components, and fuel cell cars use most of all.

More rare earth metals are required for EV production. These aren’t precious metals and are as abundant as copper and zinc. The name ‘rare earth’ comes from them being comparatively difficult to extract from their natural sources such as ores or salts.